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Each one links to the moment Scott said it and to the evidence behind its grade.
Each one links to the moment Scott said it and to the evidence behind its grade.
1,124 of 1,124 predictions
“I think this thing sends the stock up, you know, 5% or whatever.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“It breaks the zero to 60 claim.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“The zero to 60 claim breaks the Internet.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“The stock pops, and no one... Not one paying customer has a roadster in their driveway by the end of twenty twenty seven.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2027
“Within five years, whatever we're calling this, Time Warner, Skydance, HBO Max, Joey Bag of Donuts, this thing will be sold again or split up for parts.”
Oct 9, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2031
“It's probably gonna be the Doctors Without Borders or Sudan's emergency response rooms.”
Oct 9, 2026 · Politics · Either/or · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2026
“He'll be man of the year.”
Oct 9, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't think he'll get this.”
Oct 9, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2026
“Within within the next twelve or twenty four months, Netflix is gonna buy or partner with a creator network.”
Oct 6, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 6, 2028
“I still think there's more news here to come out on why they decided to why they decided to pull because the numbers on the company were really strong.”
Oct 2, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 2, 2027 (inferred)
“I think Apple is about to employ or deploy their strategy for shareholder value, which I refer to as second mouse. And that is in your home, and you reference this a lot. I think trust is a pretty big deal. And I do think Apple has a lot of trust. Also, the design and feel and self expressive benefit of the Apple brand, I think, fits really well in a home. It just feels to me like a lot of first apartments are gonna get gifts of this as this thing from parents and people.”
Oct 2, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 2, 2027 (inferred)
“I actually think him cutting layers because Yeah. Innovation is is inversely correlated with the number of people who can say no is a really good signal. It's not fun. It's really interesting. Very rarely do new CEOs come in in a company like Apple that's creating more cash flow than any company in history with exception of NVIDIA and start cutting. I actually think that's a very good sign for shareholders.”
Oct 2, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 2, 2027 (inferred)
“The muse charm the muse charm ships, sells poorly, and quietly dies by mid twenty twenty seven”
Sep 25, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2027
“along with these these niche VC backed universities.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2027
“Trump TV Trump TV goes dark or gets rebranded within six months.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Either/or · Checkable · by Mar 25, 2027
“An Allison led group is gonna bring in money from The Gulf, but it's not gonna bring in Elon.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 25, 2027 (inferred)
“An Allison led group is gonna bring in money from The Gulf, but it's not gonna bring in Elon.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 25, 2027 (inferred)
Only if: Trump TV brings in Elon Musk as an investor or partner
“I I think if they brought in Elon, I think you would see names even bigger than yours say, I'm leaving. Join you on the on the exit bus.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Conditional · Judgment call · by Mar 25, 2027 (inferred)
“my prediction is that Aura, which I believe is the most successful, arguably the most successful hardware product since the iPhone, is gonna have a really strong market reception.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't know exactly, but I think it's pricing next week.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 2, 2026
“I think this is gonna be I think this is gonna be a very successful IPO.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2026 (inferred)
“I doubt it gets done by the end of the year because of all of the different.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
Only if: If Anthropic's IPO happens at all
“I gotta think that if it happens, it's gonna be q one.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Mar 31, 2027
“This will be the most anticipated IPO in history more so.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2027 (inferred)
“Nature nature doesn't ask the coral and the fish if they love each other, but there's going to have to be some sort of cooperation and detente and reasonable sense of safety as arbitrated, I would think, by a regulator.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Sep 22, 2027 (inferred)
“We're gonna see a nation state or a bloc ban American frontier models.”
Sep 18, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Sep 18, 2027 (inferred)
“Times man of the year has already decided. It's Mark Carney.”
Sep 18, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“my prediction, this thing gets rebranded or negotiated or shrunk to a much smaller Kushner Optics scrub version before September 19”
Jul 31, 2026 · Other · Judgment call · by Sep 19, 2026
“So he'll probably get some increased member payouts, but he won't get FIFA.”
Jul 31, 2026 · Other · Checkable · by Jul 31, 2027 (inferred)
“he won't get FIFA. He won't get kind of a privatized World Cup.”
Jul 31, 2026 · Other · Judgment call · by Sep 19, 2026 (inferred)
“You're seeing the market in AI bifurcate into German automobile, high high price, high margin Mhmm. Companies that won't be as relevant is the Japanese or the low cost manufacturers, which will be Chinese AI. I think China, quite frankly, I hate to say it, at a certain level has won AI. We just haven't woken up to that yet.”
Jul 24, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jul 24, 2027 (inferred)
“And then two, you're about to see the clip economy take over our TVs. I think the biggest show on television, from Netflix or someone else is going to be a sixty minute compilation of two and three minute videos similar to what you see on Reels or TikTok. I think that's about to wash over the traditional streamers.”
Jul 24, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Jul 24, 2027 (inferred)
“So my prediction is that OpenAI is gonna buy Sierra and make... Install Brett Taylor as CEO.”
Jul 17, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2027 (inferred)
“So my prediction is that OpenAI is gonna buy Sierra and make... Install Brett Taylor as CEO.”
Jul 17, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2027 (inferred)
Only if: OpenAI announces Brett Taylor as CEO
“the valuation of the company goes up a $100,000,000,000. They get 20 x on the acquisition price.”
Jul 17, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 17, 2027 (inferred)
“So what's the prediction? All eight or 10 of those companies, a basket of them, down 20 to 40% in the next twelve months.”
Jul 3, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 3, 2027
“The biggest IPO of this... The biggest tech IPO of this month in terms of First Day Pop is not SpaceX. It's actually a European tech media company that's pricing next week.”
Jun 26, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2026
“2,500,000,000 2,500,000,000 in revenues. It'll go out at seven to eight times revenues.”
Jun 26, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 10, 2026 (inferred)
“an activist is gonna show up and force Evan either to sell or spin the specs division.”
Jun 19, 2026 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Oct 19, 2026
“You're about to see, quite frankly, you're about to see 20 new hedge funds from former SpaceXanthropic and OpenAI employees.”
Jun 19, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 19, 2027 (inferred)
“you're about to see revenues at the 100 biggest podcasts go up 20 to 30%.”
Jun 12, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 12, 2027 (inferred)
“Mean, you're about to see the podcast universe have the tsunami of money just to say, hey Joe, we'll give you $10,000,000 if you decide that you only use OpenAI.”
Jun 12, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 12, 2027 (inferred)
Only if: If the SEC (via Chair Paul Atkins) waives the rule preventing retail investors from participating in SpaceX shares before the standard price-settling period
“if he called the president and said, hey, call Paul and tell them to do away with this stupid rule such that retail good Americans can't invest in the best companies. And I got a hankering to put $10,000,000,000 to work in the midterms.”
Jun 12, 2026 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2026
“Anyways my prediction is the fix is in. What people aren't focused on is this, the waving of the NASDAQ 100 rules that you gotta wait a year and let price settles”
Jun 12, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 12, 2026 (inferred)
“is gonna create the ultimate false flag signal of pricing on the day of this”
Jun 12, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 12, 2026 (inferred)
“The next will be Amazon.”
Jun 5, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Jun 5, 2027 (inferred)
“Then it might be NVIDIA. Then it might be Apple.”
Jun 5, 2026 · Markets · Either/or · Checkable · by Jun 5, 2027 (inferred)
“I bet the CFOs of Apple, Microsoft, Coreweave, NVIDIA have all got their pencils out and have”
Jun 5, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 5, 2027 (inferred)
Only if: the war in Ukraine ends
“Oh, yeah. They'll they'll attract so much capital assuming”
May 29, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 29, 2031 (inferred)
“I'm... I just can't help it. I don't think SpaceX is gonna price near $2,000,000,000,000.”
May 22, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think it's gonna... I think 2,000,000,000,000 is a real stretch for here, and it's gonna price below that.”
May 22, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think you can expect a deal between The US and Cuba in the coming months.”
May 22, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 22, 2026
“I don't say there's light at the end of the tunnel. Think the end is nigh.”
May 22, 2026 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 22, 2027 (inferred)
“Basically, my prediction is Kinmen And Matsu Islands are gonna be invaded in the next twenty four months or seized,”
May 19, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by May 19, 2028
“I don't think an amphibious assault of Taiwan is feasible.”
May 19, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by May 19, 2028 (inferred)
“I think a soft economic blockade is coming for the following reasons.”
May 19, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by May 19, 2028 (inferred)
“And after an initial pop, I think it'll fall.”
May 15, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 15, 2026 (inferred)
“this feels like one of those bad Chinese firms that could just go down 95%.”
May 15, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 15, 2027 (inferred)
“In an era of AI and compliance AI where you could spin up the legal documents and have people sign them And with PayPal, I think you're gonna see in the next twelve to thirty six months, someone pulled us off where they say, hey. Who wants to buy Estee Lauder, or who wants to buy... You know, they'll start with a small stock. It wouldn't be Estee Lauder because that's too big a company, but it'll start with a small company that goes out of business. They'll say, okay. Dick's Sporting... Whatever it is. And someone talented, who's very charismatic, who will weaponize social media and AI to collect legal pledges for funds and will buy something. Think crowdfunding gonna happen.”
May 8, 2026 · M&A · Judgment call · by May 8, 2029
“So think... So Intel is up fourfold, and I think it's up... I'm sorry. It's up fivefold. It's up... It's it's quintupled over the last year. And I think it's about... My prediction is it's gonna shit the bed because Amazon is”
May 1, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by May 1, 2027
“That's a good one. Is over, and Intel is gonna be one of the worst performing stocks in the tech sector over the next six to twelve months.”
May 1, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by May 1, 2027
Only if: The SpaceX IPO goes out (occurs)
“Yeah. I think... So my my prediction is that when the SpaceX value... When the SpaceX IPO goes out, you will see an almost... Not an equivalent, but a proportionate decline in the value of Tesla.”
Apr 24, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2027 (inferred)
“In addition, Robotaxi and Optimus are long shot bets that may not pay off for five years, if at all.”
Apr 24, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2031
“I think the notion that you're gonna have a robot in your house bringing you your soup or whatever, I just don't... I don't I don't see that.”
Apr 24, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2031 (inferred)
“My my prediction was gonna be Anthropic IPS before OpenAI, but that's boring, and I've already talked about Anthropic.”
Apr 17, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Apr 17, 2027 (inferred)
“The Allbirds pivot to AI will inspire a bunch of copycats. You're gonna see Chegg, GameStop, Rent the Runway, all decide their AI companies.”
Apr 17, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Jul 16, 2026
“New bird, if you will, what I call New Bird, will soon be no bird.”
Apr 17, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 17, 2027 (inferred)
“Well, was originally... Get this, Kara. It was originally expected around 2026, and now they're saying it's not shipping before 2027. Guess what? It's never gonna ship.”
Mar 27, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Mar 27, 2028 (inferred)
Only if: unless Democrats consolidate behind fewer candidates instead of splitting the vote under California's jungle primary system
“We are about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And while no one was looking, we're about to elect a president of the fourth largest economy who's gonna be a Republican. Because of the jungle voting construct in California.”
Mar 27, 2026 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“My prediction is OpenAI Sora Social media app will be shut down soon.”
Mar 20, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Sep 20, 2026 (inferred)
“my prediction is, essentially, I think the markets this year are gonna go down.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“I think I think we're Uh-oh. I think we're on the precipice of, like, a $10,000,000,000,000 wipeout.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't think oil is gonna... I think oil is not gonna be at a $150, but it's gonna be it's it's gonna be sustainably higher. It's gonna be elevated through the rest of the year.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“And inflation in some markets reignites.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“The Fed can't cut rates.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think corporate earnings are really impaired as consumers stop spending because some of them will be paying $5 a gallon for gas, and their four zero one k will start to decline, and q two earnings season becomes bad.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 31, 2026
“I think there's a decent chance that Pakistan and Egypt default and as well as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, dollar denominated debt, very energy dependent, very fragile economies”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“The foreign bank, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, all hugely exposed, credit spreads blow out, and we get sort of a... Not this to the same extent, but we get an o eight style, which bank is next moment,”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“The S and P is off 20 to 40% from its peak.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2026
“Bitcoin goes to, like, 30,000.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2026
“the only thing that probably goes up is canned goods and ammunition and Chevron.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“So in other words, it could be like an o eight shock, but the problem is we we have less ammunition for a bailout.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“Real quick. My prediction is no. And that is Dario Amodi has given license and permission to CEOs to say no. And in the next thirty days, you are going to see a raft of CEOs find their testicles and start saying no to No.”
Mar 6, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 5, 2026
“I think that just as SaaS companies have been oversold, some of these PE or what they call business development or private credit companies have been oversold.”
Feb 27, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 27, 2027 (inferred)
“Oh, no. I I think it's on. And and let me be clear. I like this. I would like to see... I think the Islamic Republic is one of the most misogynistic brutal regimes in the world right now, and I think Iran has the cape... The potential, to be an outstanding ally.”
Feb 20, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 20, 2026 (inferred)
“I think the sale or the decline on these companies, Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow, I think it's been overdone. And that a basket of the companies that have endured this SaaS apocalypse are to do really well. I think it's a great investment. Because if you look at their multiple on free cash flow, they've never been lower. They've never been cheaper.”
Feb 20, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 20, 2027 (inferred)
“Probably the most anticipated was the IPO of OpenAI in 2026 sometime this year or early twenty seven.”
Feb 13, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Mar 31, 2027
“They'll dramatic... In my opinion, they'll dramatically scale back their capital... Their CapEx.”
Feb 13, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 13, 2027 (inferred)
“I think there's a ton of anecdotal evidence showing that while AI may live up to its potential, the market cap of the biggest players this year is about to throw up, which isn't to say that similar in 2000 when the market cap of Amazon went down 95%, it's still not gonna be an unbelievable company. But I think we're about to see a dramatic recalibration in the markets, which includes OpenAI's IPO plans getting queered.”
Feb 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“OpenAI, way to the downside, doesn't get public. Kalshi is about... Is gonna be, in my opinion, the kind of IPO we're all trying to get into in q two of q three of this year.”
Feb 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Sep 30, 2026
“You are gonna start to see, over the course of the next twelve to twenty four months, entire nation say, you know what? Maybe we don't need YouTube here. Maybe Meta should not be here.”
Feb 6, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 6, 2028
“it's going to go up the food chain pretty soon. You're going to see a large nation say, you know what? I don't think we need Google.”
Feb 6, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 6, 2028 (inferred)
“Big countries are gonna decide, you know what? We no longer wanna use Goldman Sachs and McKinsey to do our banking.”
Feb 6, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 6, 2028 (inferred)
“we're about to engage in military strikes against Iran.”
Jan 30, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Feb 13, 2026
“Bottom line is my prediction is that I think we're about to see The US conduct a military strike on Iran.”
Jan 23, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 23, 2027 (inferred)
“Yeah. So we've been talking about Warner Brothers discovery. It's about to go into boring mode where they just try and get the CFIUS and antitrust and all the lawsuits and reviews, you know, for the next eighteen or twenty four months.”
Jan 16, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 16, 2028
“The next thing that's gonna preoccupy us is there's gonna be most likely an activist because it's so bad, but Disney's gonna be put in play.”
Jan 16, 2026 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jan 16, 2027 (inferred)
“Then we gotta move. I don't. Yeah. Well, I'm gonna straight. I think they would just show up.”
Jan 13, 2026 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 13, 2027 (inferred)
“So, anyways, I think we're gonna see a massive rerating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI. It'll be an AI application, specifically autonomous, specifically Waymo. And as you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon, and we'll come back to that.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“But the next bailout is gonna be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 30, 2026 (inferred)
“And I also think that they will be two of the biggest... One or both of them is gonna go public in 2026, and it's gonna be one of the biggest... It's gonna be one of the best IPOs of '26.”
Dec 30, 2025 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“So you're really gonna see these firms struggle, and you're gonna see an enormous transition of capital.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 30, 2026 (inferred)
“AI, which everyone is expecting, is about to accelerate in terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood, and b, I think these short form video platforms that I had not heard of before are about to make a real a a real dent.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“So effectively, these guys are gonna buy something and then get three to 400% return within twelve months.”
Dec 30, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 30, 2026
“I think the woman who won the Nobel Peace Prize is gonna play a seminal role.”
Dec 12, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 12, 2026 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna have regime change in Venezuela.”
Dec 12, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 12, 2026 (inferred)
“My prediction is the following. Hag Seth Patel and RFK are out within the next thirty days.”
Dec 5, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 4, 2026
“My prediction is the following. Hag Seth Patel and RFK are out within the next thirty days.”
Dec 5, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 4, 2026
“My prediction is the following. Hag Seth Patel and RFK are out within the next thirty days.”
Dec 5, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 4, 2026
“They're not gonna know how to respond to our invasion of Taiwan.”
Nov 25, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 25, 2026 (inferred)
“I think they're gonna come out and said, while we had our differences, we're committed to getting along, and this is his native city. I think they both have mutually vested interest in coming across as statesmanlike.”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 28, 2025 (inferred)
“I'm now increasingly believing that the Democrats are supposed to take back the house. I think they're gonna take it back viciously.”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“I think this is gonna feel like the Republican wave under Gingrich.”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna see... I don't think they'll go through, but I think you'll see proposals for wealth taxes similar to the ones that's been proposed in California.”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 21, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't think they'll go through,”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 21, 2026 (inferred)
“I think it's gonna be approved. But Yeah. Not overwhelmingly, but I think it'll be... Because keep in mind, if you bought shares...”
Nov 7, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Nov 10, 2025 (inferred)
“God, it would be so interesting to see what happens to the stock. I don't think he's going to, but they just would rather say, okay.”
Nov 7, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 10, 2025 (inferred)
“Etsy, Pinterest, Apple, Airbnb, PayPal, and HubSpot, I believe, and this is my prediction, along with a raft of other information age darlings, are gonna announce thousand to 10,000 to 15,000 person layoffs in the next ninety days.”
Oct 31, 2025 · Tech · Checkable · by Jan 29, 2026
“And I say this will be the best performing stock, and this is why. Last year, I picked Alphabet. It's up 60% in the last year. Well year done. Thank you. Pat myself on the back. This year, my pick is probably gonna be Amazon, and that is it hasn't... It actually hasn't performed very well the last couple years.”
Oct 28, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 28, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: Amazon's enterprise value to EBITDA multiple does not change
“Amazon expects to save about, I think, about $13,000,000,000 from 2025 to 2027 as a result of automation. And assuming no change in Amazon's enterprise value to EBITDA multiple, as you can tell me, do a lot of work on this, that translates to roughly $200,000,000,000 extra in enterprise value.”
Oct 28, 2025 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2027
“So whereas ads in AWS have added all the margin, I actually think retail is about to be where they expand their margins.”
Oct 28, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 28, 2026 (inferred)
“I think they're gonna release a series of open source or open weight AI tools that crush or put real pressure on our magnificent 10 and take down our market and put us into a Western recession.”
Oct 24, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 24, 2026 (inferred)
“I think they're gonna release a series of open source or open weight AI tools that crush or put real pressure on our magnificent 10 and take down our market and put us into a Western recession.”
Oct 24, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 24, 2026 (inferred)
“The biggest trend in television over the next... Streaming media and broadcast television over the next two years is going to be podcast repurposed as TV shows.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Judgment call · by Oct 17, 2027
“I bet within twenty four to thirty six months, Netflix has three of the 10 biggest podcasts in the world, and they'll be owned and operated by Netflix.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 17, 2028
“Of the 50 biggest podcasts, within twelve months, 12 to 20 of them will be playing on TV.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 17, 2026
“So, anyways, the prediction is of the top 100 podcasts, 12 to 15 of them are gonna be playing on cable news and on streaming media within the next twelve to twenty four months.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 17, 2027
“I'm going for a non person. I'm going for an organ... I'm betting on an organization as opposed to a person.”
Oct 10, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Oct 11, 2025
“I'll go I'll take... I don't know. It's the over the under. I'll go longer just because shit takes a while.”
Oct 10, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Oct 21, 2025 (inferred)
“I think the Republicans are going to come up with something that gives the Democrats the ability to say... To claim victory here.”
Oct 10, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 30, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: the government shutdown lasts 47 days
“If it's four... I'm not exaggerating. If it's forty seven, that'll ruin our pivot tour because I think you're gonna have a shutdown in the FAA or the air traffic controllers.”
Oct 10, 2025 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Nov 17, 2025 (inferred)
“And I think we're gonna see a titanic acquisition or merger from Netflix.”
Oct 3, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Oct 3, 2026 (inferred)
“Well, the merger... The gangster merger of the ages would be the following. Netflix and Disney.”
Oct 3, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 3, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: A Democratic administration takes power in the United States
“But my point is, as soon as there's... Under Biden, it couldn't happen, and if there's another democratic administration, it won't be allowed to happen. This is the window.”
Oct 3, 2025 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2029 (inferred)
“We're gonna see a Time Warner like acquisition that's gonna be unprecedented in scale and also a disaster.”
Sep 26, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Sep 26, 2026 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna see, and I said this last week, a series of not only the biggest M and A deals in history, but I think we're gonna see a company that in three to five years will be seen as the most disastrous M and A deal in history.”
Sep 26, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Sep 26, 2030
“I think we're gonna see, and I said this last week, a series of not only the biggest M and A deals in history, but I think we're gonna see a company that in three to five years will be seen as the most disastrous M and A deal in history.”
Sep 26, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Sep 26, 2026 (inferred)
“I think, the next two quarters are gonna be historically good or the best in ten or twenty years for M and A.”
Sep 19, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2026
“So this is how this is how South Korea is gonna respond. LG, Samsung, Hyundai, they're gonna substantially curtail any plans for capital investment in The United States.”
Sep 12, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Sep 12, 2026 (inferred)
“You're gonna see an increase in defense spending coming out of the EU nations, and they're gonna say, you know what? We're not spending it on Northrop Grumman. We're not gonna spend it on Andoril. We're not gonna spend it on Boeing. We're gonna spend it on European defense companies.”
Sep 12, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Sep 12, 2026 (inferred)
“So the best performing stocks for the last quarter of the year are about to be European defense stocks because of these drones that Putin sent into Polish airspace.”
Sep 12, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
Only if: The Supreme Court upholds the appellate court ruling that Trump's tariffs were illegal, and the Trump administration responds by walking back/rolling back the tariffs rather than doubling down.
“If the Supreme Court upholds that this is... These tariffs are illegal, and the Trump administration decides not to double down and walk these things back, a step back from the wrong direction is a step in the right direction. If those two things happen, you're gonna see the biggest day in the markets of the last few years because the underlying economy has been surprisingly robust.”
Sep 5, 2025 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Sep 5, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: The Supreme Court upholds the ruling that Trump's tariffs are illegal and the Trump administration signals it will roll the tariffs back.
“my prediction, if the Supreme Court holds it up and the Trump administration signals they're gonna roll some of these ridiculous tariffs back and we're gonna accrete overnight one to one and a half percent additional GDP growth, watch the market scrape.”
Sep 5, 2025 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Sep 5, 2026 (inferred)
“She's literally the first supreme court justice appointee of a democratic presidency.”
Aug 1, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2036 (inferred)
“I think this thing closes up monstrously today,”
Aug 1, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 31, 2025
“I think Figma is what I'll call the first great company to go public in 2025, and I think it's going to be seen as one of the better IPOs of the year.”
Aug 1, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think the fix is in that what we're going to have is something resembling it'll be a kangaroo court where they took testimony and pretended to take it seriously, pretend they're pursuing the truth. And all evidence from Ghislaine Maxwell will show that the president, while was a friend and showed errors in judgment, was not involved in any illicit or illegal activity.”
Jul 25, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2029 (inferred)
“People vastly underestimate governor Newsom. He is the only one pushing back right now. I believe if I had to bet on anyone, he would be the president.”
Jul 25, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 20, 2029 (inferred)
“But anyways, whoever, thirty days before the the president... The next president is inaugurated, she will be pardoned.”
Jul 25, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 20, 2029
“Before this podcast even airs tomorrow, there's gonna be another incendiary look over here, batshit crazy, hollow threat promise.”
Jul 18, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 19, 2025
“They're in a room with AI going, what can he do or announce tomorrow? It doesn't matter if it's stupid. Doesn't matter if he has any any intention of actually following through that will keep the news off of one word, Epstein. Every day for the next seven days, Kara, and we should we should track this and read them out.”
Jul 18, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 25, 2025
“You're about to see the Trump administration go into panic mode when all of these countries that they keep extending the deadline and keep sending out threatening letters just say, sorry, boss. We're we're not we're not showing up. We're not... You know, you can threaten us all you want. They'll... They... You're gonna see the most ridiculous jazz hands in the next three weeks claiming victories. First off, these two, quote, unquote, trade deals between The UK and Vietnam aren't even deals. They're agreements to talk about a new deal, and You're going to see them start to announce the most ridiculous hollow victories to try and turn chicken shit into chicken salad, put lipstick on a pig. It is gonna start to get comical, the shit they're gonna announce and pretend is a victory.”
Jul 11, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Aug 1, 2025
“It's just that everything we think we know about these attacks in Iran, we don't know.”
Jun 27, 2025 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Jun 27, 2026 (inferred)
“Reed Hastings going on the board of Anthropic.”
Jun 27, 2025 · Tech · Checkable · by Jun 27, 2026 (inferred)
“We are going to have an anthropic Netflix joint venture that will compete with TikTok.”
Jun 27, 2025 · Tech · Checkable · by Jun 27, 2026 (inferred)
“I think Reed Hastings, now on the board of Anthropic, is going to announce within twelve months that he is partnering with Anthropic, who, by the way, is looking for big, big deals to take some oxygen away from the number one OpenAI, and that Netflix and Anthropic are gonna announce a TikTok like competitor that slices and dices the fattest long tail of content in history, and that is the Netflix library of which 99% probably gets 1% viewership.”
Jun 24, 2025 · Tech · Checkable · by Jun 24, 2026
“I think Reed Hastings, now on the board of Anthropic, is going to announce within twelve months that he is partnering with Anthropic, who, by the way, is looking for big, big deals to take some oxygen away from the number one OpenAI, and that Netflix and Anthropic are gonna announce a TikTok like competitor that slices and dices the fattest long tail of content in history, and that is the Netflix library of which 99% probably gets 1% viewership.”
Jun 24, 2025 · Tech · Checkable · by Jun 24, 2026
Only if: Alphabet's stock price continues to underperform relative to the S&P 500
“I think if Alphabet stock continues to underperform it, for some reason it goes down, I think that they will decide to prophylactically spin YouTube, because I think once an asset, Alphabet trades at a P of I think 16, the S and P trades at 24, the average S and P company is not nearly as impressive as Alphabet.”
Jun 20, 2025 · M&A · Conditional · Checkable · by Jun 20, 2026 (inferred)
“A woman will not be the Democratic nominee, and nor should she be.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
“The the Democratic nominee will not be under five foot ten. No president in the last hundred years has been under five foot ten.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
“We will have a female president. She will be a Republican,”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 1, 2060 (inferred)
“the democrats are not gonna take their chances on a gay man.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
“I I think it's gonna be J. D. Vance.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
“This thing this thing will be written down by... Let me be clear. Iconic legendary designer, maybe even worth, like, a $100,000,000, which means a $6,400,000,000 write down.”
Jun 13, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jun 13, 2026 (inferred)
“OpenAI is gonna find that designing products, they'd be much better off. Let me save them some time. Partner with hardware firms.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 13, 2026 (inferred)
“you are going to see Trump back down on the steel tariffs when he starts to recognize and gets calls from the many more people than the small union or the small number of employees benefiting from the increase in these tariffs.”
Jun 6, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jun 6, 2026 (inferred)
“my prediction is Cleveland Cliffs and Steel Dynamics give up all the gains as evidenced by what has taken place with the taco trade thus far in 2025.”
Jun 6, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Jun 6, 2026 (inferred)
“Having said that, my prediction is that Alphabet is gonna outperform the market.”
May 23, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by May 23, 2026 (inferred)
“I think the autonomous war is about to break out, and the leader is going to be Waymo.”
May 23, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 23, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: Alphabet is forced through antitrust action to spin off some of its businesses
“the likelihood of antitrust and a breakup, which I believe would actually be accretive to shareholders if they were forced to spin some of these companies because they would be unlocked from this conglomerate tax that the company is paying right now.”
May 23, 2025 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 23, 2027 (inferred)
“This first hundred days of the Trump administration, mostly using the vehicle of the Trump coin, will go down in history as the greatest grift in the history of our economy in terms of the amount of money stolen and the size of it over the shortest period.”
May 9, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 9, 2035
“I think another reason why I think Amazon's gonna continue probably to outperform is that they launched their first...”
May 2, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 2, 2026 (inferred)
“my prediction is the Interesting. The brand you haven't heard of as of 05/01/2025 is gonna be ubiquitous in the investment and consumer landscape by the end of the year, and that is project Cooper, which is a $10,000,000,000 satellite effort from the good folks at Amazon.”
May 2, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think you're gonna be outstanding on Bill Maher.”
May 2, 2025 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 2, 2025 (inferred)
“I think that they're going to beat, expectations this afternoon because I think some of those expectations have been beaten down.”
Apr 25, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 24, 2025
“And then another one, I think in the next twelve to twenty four months, we're going to see a spin prophylactically in big tech for the first time.”
Apr 25, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 25, 2027
“I think you're right. I think there's gonna be... I think Tesla is going to be folded in to another an AI company merged.”
Apr 25, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Apr 25, 2026 (inferred)
“In the Canadian elections for prime minister, my prediction is that Mark Carney of the Liberal Party is gonna prevail.”
Apr 25, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 28, 2025 (inferred)
“You're about to see, I believe, some very high profile business leaders and Republicans come out in the next week or two and say, this is just bad.”
Apr 18, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 2, 2025
“Someone someone in the Fortune five hundred is gonna come out and say this is bullshit.”
Apr 18, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 2, 2025
Only if: A major consumer brand's CEO, such as Nike's Elliott Hill, publicly comes out against Trump's policies as anti-American
“And guess what? The people who actually have the money to buy this shit are gonna think, you know what? I like this swoosh again.”
Apr 18, 2025 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 18, 2026 (inferred)
“You're gonna see trade deals between Mexico and Canada.”
Apr 15, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 15, 2026 (inferred)
“You're gonna see trade deals between the EU and China.”
Apr 15, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 15, 2026 (inferred)
“He will... And then the 100 and... I think we're at a 125% tariff on China. He will blink again. The tariffs will come dramatically down because, quite frankly, Xi looks at Trump and says, you are not serious people. Folks, this isn't gonna happen. The tariffs are gonna come way down. Trump will blink again.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 10, 2025 (inferred)
“Even more confident, there will be no tariffs, incremental tariffs on Apple products. Tim Cook will play Trump like a fiddle. Trump will be scared to piss off the cult of iOS, which is huge in The United States, and he will not wanna kneecap our shiniest, brightest, most handsome thoroughbred, and that is Apple. That's not gonna happen.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 11, 2026 (inferred)
“In addition, we're gonna find out in somewhere between, you know, three years and nine months or sooner that the greatest criminal insider trading took place yesterday.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 11, 2029
Only if: A Democrat is elected president in the 2028 U.S. presidential election
“Nothing will happen until January 2029 if a Democrat is elected. Only if. Only if.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2029
“they're just, I think, gonna find dozens, if not hundreds of people who have a connection to the White House, who were given a wink and a nod and made millions of dollars engaging in mark manipulation or trading on nonmaterial... Nonpublic material information.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 11, 2029 (inferred)
“Duke will produce... Duke is the new Harvard. Duke will produce more presidents in the next fifty years than Harvard because presidents are one of two things.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Other · Judgment call · by Apr 11, 2075
“You're going to see a dramatic increase in the number of Chinese military bases on foreign soil.”
Mar 28, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 28, 2028
“the organizations that will fill the void in The US are for profit organizations that over the medium and the long term will probably demand margin.”
Mar 28, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 28, 2028 (inferred)
“They'll get monopoly power on the jails and whatever, this part of the county or this part of the state. They will slowly raise the rates, and we will end up paying more for less.”
Mar 28, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 28, 2028 (inferred)
“I'm moving it up. I'm turning in my manuscript early. I'm hoping that it'll come out in November.”
Mar 21, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Nov 30, 2025
“My win is that the European Union is going to begin to push back and fill the void of American leadership.”
Mar 18, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 18, 2026 (inferred)
“I also believe, and I've said this before, it could inspire a dramatic upward spiral in the economy through the technology spillover and the stimulus of increased military spending and greater coordination and cutting the red tape, and we're already seeing that in the stock market.”
Mar 18, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 18, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: If Europe continues to unify, coordinate policy, and reduce bureaucratic/administrative burdens
“I believe this, in some ways, might be backs it. It might take England back into the European Union, and they need to coordinate, lower the bureaucracy, lower lower the the lack of... Or what I would say, the administrative state.”
Mar 18, 2025 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Mar 18, 2030 (inferred)
“Well, that's that is my prediction, and that is it... There's not gonna be a breakup. I think that, essentially, people keep asking us, as Anderson did last night, when does the relationship end? I don't think the relationship ends with a bang. I think he just sorts... I think must just fades to black.”
Mar 14, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“Anyways, there won't be a press there won't be a press announcement, but watch. In thirty or sixty days, Doja is gonna be surprisingly, like, not in the news.”
Mar 14, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 13, 2025
“I think you're gonna see the European economy and European stocks rip.”
Mar 7, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 7, 2026 (inferred)
“They're gonna massively increase their coordination and their military budget.”
Mar 7, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 7, 2026 (inferred)
“I think Doge is gonna be over and done by the end of the year.”
Feb 28, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think the straw that's gonna break his camel's... The camel's back here is when people start canceling contracts at, Starlink, and he says, wow. I'm actually losing money doing this. And I think that is about to happen.”
Feb 28, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Aug 31, 2025 (inferred)
“The math is gonna show that he is better off pulling a Vivek Ramaswani, and it's like fate... Remember Vivek? Vivek was the co head of Doge. Remember him?”
Feb 28, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“you're going to see Tesla sales continue to plummet,”
Feb 28, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“Tesla stock continue to go down.”
Feb 28, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“I think Tesla's about to experience its real first major existential crisis.”
Feb 14, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Aug 14, 2025 (inferred)
“You're about to hear a lot of stories about Google search share falling below 90% at the hands of Perplexity, ChatGPT, and also Reddit.”
Feb 14, 2025 · Tech · Checkable · by Feb 14, 2026 (inferred)
“I was even thinking just as YouTube has become the ultimate distribution platform in 2025, I think in '26, it's gonna be Reddit.”
Feb 14, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“Tesla stock is gonna be 200 in the next six months.”
Feb 14, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Aug 14, 2025
“But I think what you're about to see is a of a golden age or dozens of new unicorns in what I call the application layer.”
Feb 7, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 7, 2026 (inferred)
“I do think that the infrastructure in the LLM layer is about to shed tens of billions of dollars as people realize the moats aren't as big as they thought.”
Feb 7, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 7, 2026 (inferred)
“So my prediction is there's an entire layer of companies and pharmaceuticals in the consumer sector that had allocated a $102,105 $100,000,000 for CapEx for the cost or OpEx for the cost of AI that they were gonna have to spend to rent these models to develop new drugs, come up with a better itinerary for your air... Airbnb stay, that all of a sudden are gonna decide, wow. We're gonna be able to get all of the great taste of AI with a lot less calories, a lot less OpEx. And you're gonna see a bunch of companies that were setting aside a ton of reserves because they thought this was gonna be a lot more expensive than it's gonna be, recognize, take those reserves back, and it'll juice their bottom line.”
Jan 31, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think there's an entire layer of companies that just got great news that their CapEx on AI could be 30, 50, 80% less than they'd originally anticipated.”
Jan 31, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think in the next ninety days, Oracle is gonna outperform, its peers.”
Jan 24, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2025
“I think that inflation and the ten year bond are gonna be the adults in the room”
Jan 17, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 17, 2025 (inferred)
“the cost of a washing machine or a garage door is up 40 or 60%. And that month, you see a bump up in CPI, and the tenure goes fucking crazy.”
Jan 17, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 17, 2025 (inferred)
“And that month, you see a bump up in CPI, and the tenure goes fucking crazy.”
Jan 17, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 17, 2025 (inferred)
“And by the way, these folks, the next day, will implement reciprocal tariffs.”
Jan 17, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2025 (inferred)
“She said it's gonna be all about liquid natural gas.”
Jan 17, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 17, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: Inflation starts to spike
“if inflation starts to spike, all of his grandiose plans around tariffs, it's gonna come undone.”
Jan 17, 2025 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 17, 2025 (inferred)
“my prediction is that the rebuild effort, as we begin to cost it out, are gonna shine a light on the inflationary pressures of kind of Trump's signature policies.”
Jan 17, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 17, 2025 (inferred)
“The Pacific Palisades in five years is gonna be one of the nicest neighborhoods in America.”
Jan 14, 2025 · Other · Judgment call · by Jan 14, 2030
“the AI company of 2025 is gonna be meta.”
Jan 10, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“Meta's Ray Ban smart glasses.”
Jan 10, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“The Financial Times reported that Meta plans to add a smart... Small display to the Ray Bans in 2025.”
Jan 10, 2025 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“So the capital flows, the human capital flows in the podcasting are gonna be enormous because quite frankly, the the reality is other than maybe a dozen stars in in TV, Kara and Scott are making more money. And that's why you're gonna see just so much talent come into this space because Comcast takes a 97% tax on the revenue you produce”
Jan 3, 2025 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: If inflation appears to be spiking again due to the tariffs
“These tariffs go away or have serious serious pushback the first month that inflation looks to be spiking again.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“We're gonna be responsible for probably two thirds plus of the gross domestic product growth next year.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
Only if: If IBM benefits from an AI-driven boost ('AI zhuzh or pixie dust') to its business or valuation
“IBM's got a p of 33. If you got any sort of that AI zhuzh or pixie dust, this stock could double or triple.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“So briefly, 2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be OpenVideo. OpenAI and NVIDIA right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI, 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those. Answers to those queries are those two firms. And so it'll be kind of the new wind tell, and people start referring it to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think you're gonna see a raft of new unicorns in health care where you upload your medical records, your diet, and it starts playing offense and come back... Comes back to you with exact...”
Jan 3, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“podcast revenue in 2025 is gonna grow faster, granted off a small base, than Meta or Alphabet or Amazon. It's gonna be up 20 plus percent.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“So IPO of the year, I think it's gonna be... And it's gonna be an interesting one because it's probably gonna have a London exchange. Shein, these asset light models...”
Jan 3, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“And next year, it's gonna pass Walmart to be the biggest apparel retailer in the world, and it's going public on the London exchange.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think the technology of the year is nuclear. You just saw Facebook basically put out an RFP saying build us a nuclear power plant. The friction in AI is energy. It requires 10 times the energy, and people have realized that it's one of the safest, most productive, most reliable sources of energy. It's just been terribly branded the last twenty or thirty years, but some of the biggest brains have turned their massive capital fire hoses on nuclear. 2025 is gonna be the year nuclear. That'll be the technology of the year.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“Movement of the year movement of the year is gonna be banning phones in schools globally. It's just starting everywhere. Australia's banning social media. We're gonna see phones banned in schools all over the world.”
Jan 3, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“And on a much more boring level, I think the biggest LBOs of... In history are gonna happen in 2025. There's so much capital on the sidelines.”
Jan 3, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“And my favorite two targets are Target and Intel.”
Jan 3, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“I think Meta's next earnings report are gonna actually, again, exceed expectations because, what I have come to believe is that Meta has figured out this ultimate algorithm,”
Dec 13, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 15, 2025 (inferred)
“I think you're gonna see an uprising in the beginning of potentially what is a revolution in Iran.”
Dec 6, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think that you're gonna see a strike, another strike, but I think it's gonna be by the world's top football players.”
Dec 6, 2024 · Other · Checkable · by Dec 6, 2025 (inferred)
“with the antitrust scrutiny probably being dialed down and the election over, I think private equity is getting its jets kind of fired up again, and we're gonna see in 2025 a lot of m and a and take private activity. There's like a $250,000,000,000 in dry powder on the line, or the private equity has a master raise and needs to deploy.”
Nov 22, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“And I think a decent target, if you will, right now is now Target. Walmart reported great earnings, Target terrible earnings. Walmart's now trading at, I think, 33 or 34 times earnings, and Target is trading at 12. It's not doing really well.”
Nov 22, 2024 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“Two decent ideas we've mentioned over the last three weeks. One is Intel, and one now I'm adding to the list target.”
Nov 22, 2024 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“What I believe is gonna happen is that that... Those good times and that unearned income is about to come to an end, and I think you're gonna see a lot of that capital flow to the new arbiter who get... Who who gets elected, and that is podcasts.”
Nov 15, 2024 · Media · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“these tariffs are not gonna happen at nearly the scale that, Trump is threatening because you're gonna see, given that Trump is a lame duck president, given that a lot of Republicans do have a business background, and I do think a lot of them understand economics, are gonna decide to go out on a limb and say, if you wanna increase the price of 88% of the toys under the Christmas tree by 60%, I am not down with that, and I have concerns.”
Nov 15, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: Trump imposes large tariffs (e.g., 60%) on Chinese goods
“I'm gonna place 60% tariffs on China. Well, guess what? China is not a speed bag. It will hit you back. And they too will go, fuck you, boss. We're putting 60% tariffs on everything that comes into China.”
Nov 15, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“I wonder if her political career's over, and she's gonna go be the head... The chair of a private equity firm and just make bank. I don't think she's... If I'm vice president Harris, why wouldn't she go be, like, chairman of the Carlyle Group, make a lot of money, and just enjoy her life?”
Nov 15, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: a Democratic president is elected next
“I wouldn't be surprised, Kara, if her... Okay. And this is what I think her next stop is. I think under the next democratic president, she becomes a supreme court justice. I think that is what her political future is.”
Nov 15, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2032 (inferred)
“I think there's a really decent chance. I think Intel is probably the ripest large... It's not large cap now. It's mid cap. It's the ripest candidate I've seen in a while for a take private.”
Nov 5, 2024 · M&A · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't even think this is... I'm predicting, Kara, that it's not just a win for Harris. It's a decisive win.”
Nov 5, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 6, 2024 (inferred)
“I think vice president Harris is gonna win the election.”
Nov 1, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Kamala Harris is elected president and implements her proposed economic policies
“under the Harris administration, you're talking about an economic strategy that everyone from Goldman Sachs to basically every living Nobel Prize winner economics is going to say is going to winner is going to result in greater growth.”
Oct 25, 2024 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Oct 25, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: Donald Trump is elected president
“It'll be a deficit that will be triple than what would be under the Harris administration.”
Oct 25, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Unfalsifiable · by Oct 25, 2025 (inferred)
“All of these add up to vice president Harris being nominated, and elected for our president.”
Oct 25, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 6, 2024 (inferred)
“I think the latter is just getting started.”
Oct 23, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“What I would say in terms of valuations, there's just gonna be a lot of volatility.”
Oct 23, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 23, 2025 (inferred)
“We don't know if it's '97 or '99, though. But we know that by 2005, it's gonna be much bigger than it is now.”
Oct 23, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2031 (inferred)
“Will either be below 10 or above 80. This thing has become a... Literally, the tail of the whip on the prospects of Donald Trump recapturing the White House. The most volatile stock over the next few weeks is gonna be Donald Trump media, which attempts to absorb a million points of light and guess as to whether he's gonna be in the White House. This is gonna... This thing, 30 now. It's gonna be below 10 or above 80 within three weeks.”
Oct 18, 2024 · Markets · Either/or · Checkable · by Nov 10, 2024
“I wouldn't be surprised if he is doing covered calls against his 80,000,000 shares.”
Oct 11, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 11, 2025 (inferred)
“My prediction is we are at a category three hurricane of misinformation. It's about to go in the next three weeks to categories five and six.”
Oct 11, 2024 · Media · Judgment call · by Nov 1, 2024
“I think we're gonna see videos of violence at polling stations that are deepfakes trying to suppress the turnout.”
Oct 11, 2024 · Media · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024
“So I think we're about to undertake or we're beginning what I'd call the great rotation, and that is if since 2008, the capital flows... The market dynamics always trump individual performance.”
Oct 4, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 4, 2029
“And some, I think, that markets outside of The US are gonna outperform The US over the next three to five”
Oct 4, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 4, 2029
“my prediction is that gaming and casino companies and rehab clinics, which which by the are being rolled up by private equity arm and Novo Nordisk and GLP one drugs are all gonna boom.”
Sep 27, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 27, 2025 (inferred)
“my prediction is that gaming and casino companies and rehab clinics, which which by the are being rolled up by private equity arm and Novo Nordisk and GLP one drugs are all gonna boom.”
Sep 27, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 27, 2025 (inferred)
“My prediction, gaming, rehab clinics, Novo Nordisk that produces GLP one, which has been shown to be effective against these types of addictions, are gonna skyrocket, and it's gonna be nothing but a transfer of wealth from government who has to cover those bankruptcies, cover those hospitals, and families are gonna pay an extraordinary price.”
Sep 27, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by Sep 27, 2025 (inferred)
“My prediction, gaming, rehab clinics, Novo Nordisk that produces GLP one, which has been shown to be effective against these types of addictions, are gonna skyrocket, and it's gonna be nothing but a transfer of wealth from government who has to cover those bankruptcies, cover those hospitals, and families are gonna pay an extraordinary price.”
Sep 27, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Sep 27, 2025 (inferred)
“The Warner Brothers and the Disney and the Paramount Globals of the world over the next year are gonna be Gogo, publicly traded, Viasat, MRSAT, KVH Industries, Iridium Communications, SES, all of these... Intelsat, Telestat, all of these companies have put out shitty technology for maritime and transportation, trying to give you some semblance of broadband. This is the Netflix of that industry. It is... You're gonna see tremendous disruption here.”
Sep 20, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Sep 20, 2025
“I think chances are he's gonna do better than people think.”
Sep 10, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Sep 10, 2024
Only if: Kamala Harris does not resoundingly beat Donald Trump in the September 10, 2024 debate
“I think the expectations because of the unbelievable momentum that she and her team have established create just expectations where unless she's resoundingly beats him, it'll be disappointing for her.”
Sep 10, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Sep 10, 2024
“John Goodman? Yeah. I was thinking that. John Goodman.”
Aug 9, 2024 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“Well, so I thought the prediction was gonna be around VP, and I'm I'm picking Shapiro.”
Aug 2, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2024 (inferred)
“The the other prediction I'm making, I'm just thinking about it because we didn't get to it, is I think we've hit sort of peak tweeting of... Or peak the founder tweeting of funds.”
Aug 2, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Aug 2, 2025 (inferred)
“I think the same thing is gonna happen to Tesla.”
Jul 26, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“I think we're about to be a bunch of stories saying that all of these tech libertarian billionaires cozying up to Trump in exchange for political favors and advantages that would advantage their business, I think there's gonna be more stories about, okay. You've gone all in on Trump, and you think it's gonna get you business, which by that logic means that if, in fact, it's a Harris presidency, it's gonna be really bad for your business, that it's gonna be unlikely she's going to put more tariffs on BYD. It's gonna be unlikely that she puts pressure on the Fed or Janet Yellen to come up with some batshit crazy lack of regulation that sends crypto through through the roof.”
Jul 26, 2024 · Media · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Kamala Harris's electoral prospects/polling improve
“exactly right.”
Jul 26, 2024 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“but I can't help but think people are gonna start to write articles on how bad will a Harris administration be for Tesla, and I think that's gonna impact the stock.”
Jul 26, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“My prediction is it's gonna go down to less than 30 because I think the pick... I think Biden's gonna step down, and the prospect of Trump being reelected is gonna go down. And as a result, Donald Trump media, which has become a proxy for the likelihood he gets elected, is going to dip below 30.”
Jul 19, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 26, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Trump wins the White House (the 2024 presidential election)
“But also, if Trump wins the White House, it's likely or might because there's a nonzero probability that he will find something that traditionally would have been illegal, that he might demand that the Pentagon or that every government employee have a... An account on true true social. I mean, I just wouldn't put it past the guy.”
Jul 19, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 19, 2025 (inferred)
“No. No. No. I I I think in... What I'm saying is in this... In the next week, I think Joe Biden steps down.”
Jul 19, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 26, 2024
“my prediction is in the next ninety days, somebody is gonna file a 13 d and say, hi. We're here, and we're concerned at Nike.”
Jul 12, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 10, 2024
Only if: John Donahoe does not turn around Nike's performance within twelve months of July 12, 2024
“I would bet that John, he has twelve months to figure this out. Otherwise, he will be he will be removed from his position.”
Jul 12, 2024 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Jul 12, 2025
“For 2025, and I'm not committing to this, but I'm just starting to marinate in the die... Data. I think the technology of the year is gonna be, SpaceX's Starlink.”
Jun 28, 2024 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“It's about to become, the ultimate ingredient brand, and that is every plane, every boat, every hotel you stay in, people are gonna start asking, DF Starlink.”
Jun 28, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 28, 2025 (inferred)
“Well, I I do think European tech is gonna have a pretty good year.”
Jun 21, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024
“the biggest IPO of 2024 is going to happen on the LSE from Shein, the company that's gone up in 30,000,000,000 to $42,000,000,000”
Jun 21, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024
“Next year, it'll probably be $60,000,000,000”
Jun 21, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“It'll probably be the biggest apparel company in the world that's growing that fast and is that profitable.”
Jun 21, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“the biggest IPO of 2025 will be SpaceX on the new Texas exchange.”
Jun 21, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“the LSE is no longer going to be seen as the exchange of last choice. It's going to be something where cool companies go public.”
Jun 21, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 21, 2025
“You're about to see the second most lucrative licensing agreement in history form gestate coagulate over the next twenty four months. And that is Apple's putting itself in a position to extract 10 tons of flesh from either Microsoft or Alphabet to be the AI that has access to the billion wealthiest people on the planet.”
Jun 14, 2024 · Tech · Either/or · Checkable · by Jun 14, 2026
“Just when people, analysts do their do their homework, they're gonna realize, here we go again. It's gonna be another ten or twenty billion dollars a year in free cash flow to Apple.”
Jun 14, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 14, 2026
“The Democratic convention in Chicago, I think, is gonna make a lot of news.”
Jun 7, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Aug 22, 2024 (inferred)
“I think there's gonna be all kinds of misinformation and noise around the Chicago convention.”
Jun 7, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Aug 22, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: President Biden gets sick and is unable to appear on stage one night during the Democratic National Convention
“if president Biden Biden, let me just say the quiet part out loud, gets a cold and, for whatever reason, can't be on stage one night, there's gonna be all sorts of speculation.”
Jun 7, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Aug 22, 2024 (inferred)
“A two or 3% chance he comes out of the convention as the nominee, Kara.”
Jun 7, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 22, 2024
“I just wanna highlight again that I think that Melinda French Gates and... And I'll pose this as a prediction. And Mackenzie Scott are gonna kick off a wave of what it really means to give.”
May 31, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by May 31, 2027 (inferred)
“I do think there's gonna be a movement away from hoarding. Then we're gonna start shaming people.”
May 31, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by May 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I do believe taxes are gonna go up dramatically because here's the thing. No one loses. No one loses when you start taxing people above a billion dollars in wealth.”
May 31, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 31, 2027 (inferred)
“I do think you're going to see media companies that have a lot of rich data to be crawled are gonna kind of feel feel their mojo and and get serious and maybe be able to say... Have confidence to say, no. I'll see what Meta says or I'll see what what Anthropic says.”
May 24, 2024 · Media · Judgment call · by May 24, 2025 (inferred)
“But I think you're gonna see a mini boom in some smaller media companies such as Gannett or Yahoo or or scale companies when the marketplace recognizes they're in now in a position to command a new source of revenue that's very, very high margin. I think there's an investment opportunity here.”
May 24, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 24, 2025 (inferred)
“Well, my prediction is a story that I think is the most underreported story, and my prediction is it's gonna get a lot more attention.”
May 17, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 17, 2025 (inferred)
“I think there's gonna be I think there's gonna be a lot of scrutiny and backlash.”
May 17, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 17, 2025 (inferred)
“There's probably a one in three chance that one of them, I'm not talking about dies, but has a health incident.”
May 10, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024
“The other thing that we're not talking about and it's unfortunate, is whoever RFK junior pulls the most votes from is probably going to lose.”
May 10, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“Bukaya Saka, I believe will be man of the match in the finals between Germany and England.”
May 10, 2024 · Other · Checkable · by Jul 14, 2024 (inferred)
“I'm sorry. I believe England's gonna win.”
May 10, 2024 · Other · Checkable · by Jul 14, 2024 (inferred)
“I think America, after exhausting every other option, gets it right.”
May 7, 2024 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by May 7, 2025 (inferred)
“I think generally speaking, we're going to see a massive increase in health care opportunities, both through AI”
May 7, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 7, 2025 (inferred)
“also think GLP-one drugs are going to reduce death, disease, and disability in this country.”
May 7, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by May 7, 2025 (inferred)
“My prediction is that we're gonna find out that there's a reason that the tents in encampment at NYU were the same tents at Columbia and other schools. There is a Outsiders. Oh, this... There's some serious coordination and funding going on here, and I don't think we're gonna like who's coordinating and funding these things.”
May 3, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 3, 2025 (inferred)
“I think it's gonna go from hundreds to thousands of arrests, suspensions, and expulsions.”
May 3, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by May 3, 2025 (inferred)
“I think you're gonna start to see faculty get fired because we have, for some reason, decided to give faculty and administrators the illusion that you do not have a responsibility to your employer to make it a healthy, productive work environment.”
May 3, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by May 3, 2025 (inferred)
“And the the reason they will come to the table and figure out an accommodation is that on the American side, a lot of people love TikTok, and there are a lot of very influential American organizations, including General Atlantic Partners and Sequoia Capital, who have tens, if not hundreds of billions on the line here.”
Apr 26, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 26, 2025
“The platform will not effectively be banned. You're not gonna lose your TikTok.”
Apr 26, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 26, 2025
“It's gonna be it's gonna be huge regardless.”
Apr 19, 2024 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 19, 2024 (inferred)
“And my prediction is that within the next sixty days, it's a single digit stock.”
Apr 19, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Jun 18, 2024
“I also think there's an outside chance this thing goes to 2 or $3 a share that it lose 90% from here.”
Apr 19, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Jun 18, 2024
“I think big bank stocks are about to... They're about to kick off their earnings tomorrow when this releases with JPMorgan. I think they're gonna beat their earnings expectations because the general, their stocks, what have been priced into their stocks was the assumption that interest rates were coming down.”
Apr 12, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 19, 2024
“Despite the fact they have actually outperformed the S and P and had a great year, I still think they're gonna continue to outperform, and they're gonna surprise to the upside this week.”
Apr 12, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 12, 2024 (inferred)
“I think he's gonna get hit hard. I I think he handled himself. He was so poorly advised around how to handle this.”
Mar 29, 2024 · Other · Checkable · by Apr 30, 2024 (inferred)
“And now granted that the company's recovered or it's recovered, it's gonna end up... All of its debtors are gonna get paid a 100¢ on the dollars on the dollar because the market has recovered so aggressively in crypto.”
Mar 29, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“I think they're gonna make an example, this kid. I think he handled I think he handled himself terribly through this process, and I think they wanna send a message to the crypto community. Boys don't fuck with us.”
Mar 29, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by Apr 30, 2024 (inferred)
“My prediction is I think someone who's gonna go down in history as just an incredibly powerful role model for young people and a really fantastic American is the cofounder of Amazon, Mackenzie Scott.”
Mar 22, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by Mar 22, 2034 (inferred)
Only if: once TikTok is 'banned slash regulated' and ByteDance reaches an accommodation with the U.S.
“The ban is going to take the value... Send the value of ByteDance shares soaring, and this is why.”
Mar 15, 2024 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Mar 15, 2025 (inferred)
“I think a lot of these local civic groups and essentially organizations, whether it's city councils, are going to be asked to to tone down the politics.”
Mar 8, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 8, 2025 (inferred)
“So my prediction is that the new junior senator from Arizona will be Ruben Gallego.”
Mar 8, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“I think that Alphabet is gonna be the best performing big tech stock,”
Feb 27, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 27, 2025 (inferred)
“I think it's gonna attract an activist investor in the next thirty to sixty days.”
Feb 27, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 27, 2024
“they're going to have fairly significant layoffs because they have over hired and the year of efficiencies has not really hit Alphabet yet.”
Feb 27, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 27, 2025 (inferred)
“I think Taylor Swift could be a seminal force in the election with a turnout to vote.”
Feb 16, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“I think John Stewart is gonna play an enormous role in the election and in the discourse over the next, nine months.”
Feb 16, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 16, 2024
“He'll play a much bigger role than Rachel Maddow because moderates put up a screen when they see Rachel.”
Feb 16, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“This election is gonna be decided by 50 to a 100,000 kind of exurban soccer moms in three or four states.”
Feb 16, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Taylor Swift tells young people to vote
“I I think a lot of younger people are gonna turn out that ordinarily wouldn't turn out if Taylor Swift tells them to.”
Feb 16, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“Trump's gonna go after him and start attacking him because he's gonna realize he's starting to hurt him when he just highlights the truth every week.”
Feb 16, 2024 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“Anyways, I just think and this is a prediction, and granted any disclosure, I own the stock but I think you're going to see a monster earnings call tonight from Airbnb that's going to surprise everyone to the upside.”
Feb 13, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 13, 2024
“I'm just doubling down. Apple's mixed reality headset is a giant thud. It's DOA,”
Feb 9, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 9, 2025 (inferred)
“I don't doubt that certain technology will waterfall into... I I think Apple will have a successful product as will Meta when they incorporate this technology in the micro cameras and the process and get to the point where you can elegantly incorporate this technology into a cool pair of Oliver Peoples glasses or Persols or, you know, Warby part, whatever it might be. That that is a winner.”
Feb 9, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 9, 2026 (inferred)
“This is... They're gonna stop talking about this thing in a couple weeks.”
Feb 9, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 23, 2024
“my prediction is that in ten or twenty years, we're gonna look back, and the greatest return on investment in this era wasn't an investment in NVIDIA. It wasn't even an investment in infrastructure. The greatest return on investment will be the $75,000,000,000 and the $92,000,000,000 that America and the EU, respectively, have invested in helping Ukraine push back on Russia.”
Feb 2, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Feb 2, 2044
“I think sooner rather than later, we're gonna find out that we have been, subjects of what is one of the most elegant, insidious, and obvious in hindsight, propaganda attacks by the CCP.”
Jan 26, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 26, 2025 (inferred)
“Yeah. One of my predictions from my 2024 deck is that housing is gonna boom, not price.”
Jan 23, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024
“I think we're gonna see an absolute boom in sales volume end of the year.”
Jan 23, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024
“My prediction is that Coinbase is the AOL of... You know, I said it. I I... The stock's up. I mean, the stock has just skyrocketed. I think it's overvalued. I think it's a good firm that's well run. I think it has a role to play, and they'll find new ways. But it's just... It's like AOL. It's gonna dramatically shed a ton of value, I think, over the next few years because it's been the on ramp into crypto, and people no longer need a safe, you've got mail, kind of friendly place to buy crypto.”
Jan 12, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 12, 2027 (inferred)
“I don't know if this deal will happen, but Paramount will not be an independent company by the end of the year.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024
“basically it's going to come down to three players. It's going to be Netflix. It's going to be Warner Bros. Discovery. And it's going to be probably the biggest niche player will be Disney, which will own Family.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“Warner Bros. Discovery couldn't do it because of tax reasons. They will be able to do it, I think, in about six or nine months.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 8, 2024
Only if: If Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount merge
“And together, they will hold on to 90% of the combined revenues, and they'll be able to cut costs by 20%.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: If Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount merge
“And together, they will hold on to 90% of the combined revenues, and they'll be able to cut costs by 20%.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“unfortunately for Hollywood and LA based media, it's gonna fail slowly for the next twenty years. And that is there will be Barbie and Oppenheimer summers that have a glimmer of hope, but over time, the the regression line is gonna be is gonna be down into the right.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 19, 2043
“But I don't think it'll go into bankruptcy. Elon Musk has so much money with an impending IPO of Starlink, he would be able to make these interest payments in his sleep.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“But I don't think it'll go into bankruptcy. Elon Musk has so much money with an impending IPO of Starlink, he would be able to make these interest payments in his sleep.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“Anyway, I don't think this will be as big an issue because the companies that are biggest in this are so heavily scrutinized and have so much capital that they will be able to put these server farms or whatever they're gonna need near hydro facilities. I think this will be the greenest consumption of incremental power. I I think these companies will get that right.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“I think that the Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia and Israel are gonna normalize relations, and I'd like to think that peace and prosperity have a... Are gonna have a second chance or new newfound vigor as the two largest economies normalize relations.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“I believe that the world's largest tax cut in history is about to take place in 2024 as The US and China and Chinese relationship... Relations thaw. I think there's gonna be a new bear hug.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024
“A massive amount of disinformation from AI in Q one and Q two, said this before around the election.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2024
“And I think travel stocks are ranging from Expedia to... I don't know what's another... Airbnb, by the way, I'm a holder in Airbnb, not in Expedia, are going to boom. I think the travel industry is going boom.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Google is found guilty in the DOJ antitrust case and the remedy is a breakup
“Just a prediction on top of a prediction. If if they are in fact found guilty and the remedy may be the breakup, and it's not entirely clear, even if they are found guilty, if that would be the remedy. But if the remedy looks like it's gonna be a breakup, Google stock will outperform every other big tech You stock in 2020”
Dec 19, 2023 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024
“And this year, my tech, big tech stock pick is Alphabet.”
Dec 15, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024
“The second prediction is I think by... And I get the timing wrong. By the end of twenty four, the end of twenty five, Musk is gonna lose control of Twitter. He's either gonna sell it or be forced to sell it.”
Dec 15, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think there's a there's a non zero probability now that that he's violated the terms of service of the App Store of Apple.”
Dec 15, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 15, 2024 (inferred)
“I think he's gonna have shareholder lawsuits from investors at Twitter.”
Dec 15, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 15, 2024 (inferred)
“I just think this is gonna be a rough q one and q two.”
Dec 15, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2024
“Anyway, so I think Alphabet is the best big tech performer in 2024.”
Dec 15, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024
“One or two of the three university presidents that testify to be gone within twelve months.”
Dec 8, 2023 · Other · Checkable · by Dec 8, 2024
“I would bet that they've seen $1 to $5,000,000,000 in commitments just go away.”
Dec 8, 2023 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 8, 2024 (inferred)
“I think one of the biggest business stories in tech in 2024 will be the entrance into AI of Apple.”
Dec 8, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024
“My prediction is that the ultimate iron dome for Israel is formed in twelve to twenty four months, and that will be the normalization of relations between the kingdom and Israel.”
Nov 17, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 17, 2025
“I think that the issue for the Democrats is going to be women's rights, specifically reproductive rights. I just think it's a winner. It resonates with a lot of moderates. It has turned out people. It's a winner for them.”
Nov 14, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“I think their lead is gonna be rooted in education, but they're gonna show videos of people interrupting math classes at MIT. They're gonna show these protests at elite universities, and they're going to juxtapose that with kind of thirties protests of pro Hitler protests. I think they're going to basically try and attach the elite, the far left universities with being just out of control in terms of their... What they will say is an inability to push back”
Nov 14, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“campuses are in a state of turmoil right now, and some of them are losing... I mean, they might wake up next year and see their fundraising down by 60%.”
Nov 14, 2023 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna see a narrative and some evidence that these GLP one drugs that reduce your cravings, the people on these drugs are actually consuming less social media. I don't know if it's the twenty eighty rule, but there is a a cohort of people that are on social media 24 by seven. And whether it's porn, whether it's Instagram, whether it's it's it's TikTok or Twitter, it is an addiction. And that is it gets in the way of the rest of your life. And I think we're gonna find that people on these drugs reduce their social media consumption among other addictions, and I wonder how the market is gonna react to that.”
Nov 3, 2023 · Other · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2024 (inferred)
“When Netflix raises its prices 15%, it gives everyone cloud cover, especially as they consolidate and have beefier offerings. You know, Disney plus, if it includes Hulu, HBO, or whatever it's called, Max. I mean, these guys are really bulking up, and the big player has given them cloud cover to increase their prices. They've... Like I said, they're doing what they had to do. They had to cut their costs and increase their prices. So price increases across Max, and, the new Disney plus are are are likely coming.”
Nov 3, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2024 (inferred)
“I think at some point in the future, we're gonna find out that the CCP was using TikTok to manipulate and divide America with a disproportionate amount of anti Israel content that they're elevating.”
Oct 27, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Oct 27, 2033
“So we'll see, but I think in I think in several years, we're all gonna say, oh, that was obvious they were doing it and find out they were. Mhmm. I think it's hap... I think it's happening right now.”
Oct 27, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Oct 27, 2028 (inferred)
“So activist investor in the next thirty to ninety days at Warner Brothers Discovery.”
Oct 17, 2023 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 15, 2024
“there's 40 to 60% of upside here in the next twelve months with probably 10 to 20% downside.”
Oct 17, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 17, 2024
“I think you're gonna see these companies hemorrhage market capitalization over the next twelve months.”
Oct 6, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 6, 2024
“but over the next five years, the greatest shifts in market capitalization are going to happen because of the Ozempic economy or whatever you want to call it, the obesity economy that's about to be disrupted.”
Oct 6, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 6, 2028
Only if: Gavin Newsom debates Donald Trump on a presidential debate stage before the 2024 election
“I think you put governor Newsom on a debate stage with Donald Trump, and people look at him, and they look at Donald Trump, and they hear what what governor Newsom says, I think he's a lock.”
Oct 3, 2023 · Politics · Conditional · Unfalsifiable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“Not gonna happen by the election.”
Oct 3, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024
“I think one or both of them is gone by the end of the year because I think they're demonstrating just such incredible weakness,”
Sep 29, 2023 · Politics · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023
“The rider strike is gonna be over by the end of, in the next thirty days as well.”
Sep 19, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 19, 2023
“Go ahead. You're you're in as well the UAW strike one. The former or the latter has reason to be solved. They've handled it well.”
Sep 19, 2023 · Other · Checkable · by Oct 19, 2023 (inferred)
“So where were the predictions? Like, the UAW, they're at $40. The bid ask is 20 and $40. They'll end up probably in the high twenties. That's where they should be. So that's gonna end.”
Sep 19, 2023 · Other · Checkable · by Sep 19, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: WGA leaders don't reach a settlement soon
“And then the folks the folks who run the Writers Guild are in danger of losing their jobs and of the entire union collapsing if they don't come.”
Sep 19, 2023 · Media · Conditional · Judgment call · by Sep 19, 2024 (inferred)
“Yeah, they'll follow along. These unions... But the people who actually work at the unions are probably realize that they have overplayed their hand, and they're about to get kicked out of the game if they... I just... All of a sudden, everyone, all at once, their incentives are aligning to solve this strike. So what's gone on a hundred and twenty days isn't gonna go on more than another thirty.”
Sep 19, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 19, 2023
“I think we're about to see the mother of all AI generated misinformation Lollapalooza in Q1 or Q2 of next year as Putin realizes the fastest blue line path to victory in Ukraine is to get Trump reelected, and they'll start generating enormously damaging images and deepfakes and videos and content that's been AI tested that depositions Biden and Harris.”
Sep 15, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2024
“And then all the big tech firms will cash their check, and come November 5, they'll decide that they should have taken more action and wring their hands and say, we're sorry. We need to do better in 2028.”
Sep 15, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 15, 2024
“Yeah. But that's not gonna happen in the next six months.”
Sep 15, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 15, 2024
“But by the time they inform the president, by the time they go on their listening tour, you're talking about legislation maybe in two years.”
Sep 15, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Sep 15, 2025
“So my prediction is within the next... So predictions are usually right. Get the timing wrong. In the next ninety to I don't know what the timing is around filing someone we're not talking about is going to pull a 20% plus because both parties are unhappy with their candidates.”
Sep 12, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 12, 2023
“I think we're going to find 100 shades of Tony Hsieh start to emerge. And the word we're going to start to hear more and more when talking about some of the behaviors that infect and I'm not talking about any individual, I'm talking about the entire community. The word we're going to hear more and more of is ketamine.”
Sep 12, 2023 · Other · Judgment call · by Sep 12, 2024 (inferred)
“Pivot listeners put Will Hurd over the top of his 40,000 because they all went to heardforamerica.com and gave at least $1.”
Aug 11, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Aug 23, 2023 (inferred)
“the twenty twenty four NBA champions are my San Antonio Spurs”
Aug 11, 2023 · Other · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2024
“The... That cat, that that... The Harvard professor that that took all that metal out of the ocean because he thought it was, like, gonna prove extraterrestrial life, I don't think it's... I I think the final analysis is not gonna be clear that that was some”
Aug 11, 2023 · Other · Judgment call · by Aug 11, 2024 (inferred)
“just as the experts say that there's a 15% chance that AI could destroy the world. Well, there's a 15% chance that it could destroy American democracy.”
Aug 8, 2023 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“Well, I referenced it earlier in the show. I think something happens with Snap.”
Jul 28, 2023 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 28, 2024 (inferred)
“And I think you have a set of players that would love to have those 400,000,000 users, and then you have a set of legacy players, and the one that strikes me, Disney from a brand fit, need, after they get through the cost cutting, need something to inspire growth.”
Jul 28, 2023 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jul 28, 2024 (inferred)
“I think president Trump is not gonna run for president under yeah. The Under the auspices of a plea deal.”
Jul 21, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“And if you look at those five states, if you look at the issues in the map, Biden beats Trump easily, Easily.”
Jul 21, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Joe Biden is inaugurated for a second term in January 2025
“Unless that changes unless that changes, if Biden is inaugurated in January 2025, the likelihood that Trump goes to prison goes from one in ten to, like, one in three.”
Jul 21, 2023 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2025
Only if: Donald Trump loses the 2024 election
“If if he continues to decimate the Republican Party and he's a loser, none of these people like him or his principles. Yeah. I think even his court base begins to abandon him, and then the momentum towards putting this criminal in prison becomes a torrent, a runaway flood.”
Jul 21, 2023 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2025 (inferred)
“The world's closing in on him, and he knows it. He's about to have a third indictment.”
Jul 21, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“This is going be a monster, Kara. It's going to be a monster because so many moons are lining up here.”
Jul 18, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 18, 2024 (inferred)
“Oh, the back half of the year is going to be IPO.”
Jul 18, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023
“But I think the big winners, the biggest creators of shareholder value and stakeholder value in AI will be a small number of tech companies and then a bunch of consumer companies that leverage AI. And this is the first one.”
Jul 18, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 18, 2025 (inferred)
“And you know what they're coming out with in 2025? I don't think I'm speaking out of school here. They're coming out with an acne brand.”
Jul 18, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“It is gonna rock the house.”
Jul 18, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Aug 18, 2023 (inferred)
“I think president Trump is not gonna run for president under the ausp... Yeah. Under the auspices of a plea deal.”
Jul 14, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“I actually think governor Christie is gonna surpass DeSantis and be the number two, but I don't think I don't think it'll matter.”
Jul 14, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 5, 2024 (inferred)
“I think once the third indictment... I think this... The laws specifically around these state secrets, I think that he has... Him running for president and the momentum he has is real leverage and power, and I think he's gonna cash that leverage and power in for a plea deal that includes no jail time.”
Jul 14, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“In the next thirty days, Meta is gonna have a greater revenue run rate than Twitter.”
Jul 14, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Aug 13, 2023
“I think threads is gonna get to a 100,000,000 users in five weeks. It took Twitter five years.”
Jul 7, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by Aug 10, 2023
“my prediction is round one of the cage match between Musk and Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg is is kicking the shit out of Musk, specifically via threads.”
Jul 7, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Aug 10, 2023 (inferred)
“My prediction, again, in five weeks, there's more users on threads than there was in the first five years of Twitter. And round one of this cage match goes to the Zuck.”
Jul 7, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by Aug 10, 2023
“This won't have the depth, but it'll be a little bit more bravo Kim Kardashian, which has a big market, but it'll have a different vibe.”
Jul 7, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Jul 7, 2024 (inferred)
“So my prediction is the IPO market is gonna come roaring back in Q3 and Q4. The VIX, which is sort of a fear gauge, is at a multi year low below 20. There's a ton of money on the sidelines. A lot of companies that were sort of pre IPO have used the last two years to kind of get in fighting shape and cut some costs.”
Jun 30, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023
“but this is my prediction. Every major athletic organization around the world is gonna gonna justifiably and fairly move to the following. You either... Wherever the gender you go through puberty or the gender you're born with, you are going to compete in that sport. The governing bodies of sports and athletic associations around the world are gonna move to a more definitive regulation that says, if you are born with a penis, you need to compete in one of two categories, either men's or some new category.”
Jun 16, 2023 · Other · Judgment call · by Jun 16, 2026 (inferred)
“Welcome to enter Miami, Antonella and Lionel. This is gonna be the one of the best decisions you have ever made. You are gonna have a wonderful life.”
Jun 13, 2023 · Other · Judgment call · by Jun 13, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: his son finishes high school
“My son's in high school and thriving, so we're here till he's out of high school.”
Jun 13, 2023 · Other · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 13, 2025 (inferred)
“So mine are... My... I have two that are really boring. The first is Jay Monahan. I love the term that someone used for Chris Licht that he'd lost the room.”
Jun 9, 2023 · Other · Checkable · by Jun 9, 2024 (inferred)
“Yeah. I think that he's gone.”
Jun 9, 2023 · Other · Checkable · by Jun 9, 2024 (inferred)
“Anyways... And then I think the political hot potato that's about to emerge in the presidential race, especially on the Republican side as they go after Biden, is, the listening station and facility that the Chinese are building in Cuba. Oh. That's gonna be a big deal.”
Jun 9, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“I do think we're gonna see... I think the first realization of all the catastrophizing that's going around in AI is gonna come to light in the next twelve to eighteen months, or it's gonna happen in the next twelve to eighteen months.”
Jun 2, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 2, 2024
Only if: whether Donald Trump is elected U.S. president in November 2024
“Because the shortest path to victory in Ukraine for Russia is very simple. If Trump is elected, they win the war. If Trump is not elected, they're gonna lose this war. It comes... It's that simple.”
Jun 2, 2023 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: nothing unusual/weird happens before the election
“Right now, it looks like unless something weird happens, it looks like Biden handily beats him.”
Jun 2, 2023 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“You're about to see the mother of all AI generated misinformation around this election.”
Jun 2, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024
“You know who's gonna get a lot of attention is vice president Harris.”
Jun 2, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
“And this goes to my prediction. She is pushing a rock up a hill that is gonna get bigger and heavier every day. She will be blamed for not restoring the ad revenue that he has recklessly alienated. And she will be... She will leave or be fired within twelve months.”
May 26, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by May 26, 2024
“I think after seeing what happened where the black hole of attention Elon Musk couldn't couldn't resist, the technology issues, all of the negative press they're getting, I mean, people will go on the platform.”
May 26, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 26, 2024 (inferred)
“the studios are gonna slowly but surely, quietly, they are going to break their backs. And this is gonna end really poorly for the writers.”
May 19, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“they're gonna do nothing. And then when a bunch of the the riders that are gonna be replaced by AI anyways start thinking, I can't pay my rent and start putting pressure on the union to settle,”
May 19, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“the union's gonna end up with a worse deal than they had going into this thing.”
May 19, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“my prediction is that 2024 is going to be the year of AI driven health care startups because I don't think there's any industry that is more ripe to be disrupted than the industry that's growing faster than inflation.”
May 12, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024
“I think you're gonna see AI's first kind of really fertile ground or real chaos that's going to start in terms of a reshuffling of stakeholder value is going to be in health care. And that's everything from helping you find or diagnose stuff, develop treatment plans. I mean, you think about virologists or pathologists and what AI could do or radiologists, I mean, you're gonna see massive disruption.”
May 12, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“I think we're going to see the banking crisis continues.”
May 5, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 5, 2024 (inferred)
“So I think we're going to see a massive increase or even a removal of the cap of FDIC insurance.”
May 5, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by May 5, 2024 (inferred)
“And I think we're gonna find out in three months, thirty six months, is there are a lot of short sellers who created... Who could weaponize media, given new media platforms in the speed and the circulation of catastrophizing media that weaponize these platforms for financial incentive to take these...”
May 5, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 5, 2026
“And then my final prediction is I think, senator Feinstein is gonna resign in the next couple of weeks.”
May 5, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by May 19, 2023
“My prediction was gonna be that Elon and Twitter are gonna launch a TV show or some sort of media property or centered on Tucker Carlson.”
Apr 28, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Apr 28, 2024 (inferred)
“And he'll say to Tucker, look, I claim it's worth $20,000,000,000 I'll give you 1% of it. That's $200,000,000, and I want you to start a daily thirty or sixty minute show on Twitter.”
Apr 28, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 28, 2024 (inferred)
“But 100% Dan and Tucker and Elon will structure an interesting deal for them”
Apr 28, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 28, 2024 (inferred)
“I think, Kara, in the next kinda... Within sixty or ninety days, we're gonna see some fairly prominent Democratic elected officials announce that they are running for president.”
Apr 21, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 20, 2023
“Well, he's clearly running. Yeah. I mean, just hasn't announced. He does... You you don't you don't spend money. You don't spend donors' monies to go into to other states and talk about freedom unless you're running for president.”
Apr 21, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: one prominent Democrat announces a 2024 presidential run
“But, anyways, I think you're gonna see one person, and then you know what? Three or four are gonna are gonna pile in and say Speak it should be an open primary.”
Apr 21, 2023 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 20, 2023 (inferred)
“My first is that Chelsea will beat Austin Via on Sunday.”
Mar 31, 2023 · Other · Checkable · by Apr 2, 2023
“Alibaba and Chinese internet stocks are going to continue their tear because the chill the chill has been lifted.”
Mar 31, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2024 (inferred)
“We're about to see a regression to the mean for Chinese Internet stocks, a continued regression of the mean where they accelerate, and Alibaba will probably lead the pack.”
Mar 31, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2024 (inferred)
“Well, I'll make an obvious one. So, JPMorgan's about to have their best quarter in history.”
Mar 17, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 31, 2023 (inferred)
“Wait till the earnings call, the next earnings call when Jamie Dimon says, we took in more capital that we can now loan out at a higher interest rate than we pay than we were expecting for the next three to five years, and we did it in three to five days.”
Mar 17, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 30, 2023 (inferred)
“I actually think those guys who are the venture catastrophists are gonna get probably more than their fair share of criticism, but they're going to get a lot of criticism.”
Mar 17, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 30, 2023 (inferred)
“When the waters calm here and already interest rates have come down and those bonds have increased in value, you're gonna find when the dust settles, it really didn't cost taxpayers very much.”
Mar 17, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“I think by the end of the year, I just think this thing, you start to never hear about it.”
Mar 10, 2023 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“Anyways, my prediction, the thing... Sanity at some point creeps in, and they go, the thing just dies a very quiet death.”
Mar 10, 2023 · M&A · Judgment call · by Mar 10, 2024 (inferred)
“So I I think there's gonna be a fairly significant punitive award to Dominion.”
Mar 3, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 3, 2024 (inferred)
“They are probably gonna get a billion dollar plus fine here.”
Mar 3, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 3, 2024 (inferred)
“In my opinion, my prediction is it's gonna be a large... Not only a large monetary award, punitive award, but you're gonna see some board members rightfully be kicked out of the board here.”
Mar 3, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 3, 2024 (inferred)
“There's going be shareholder lawsuits for”
Mar 3, 2023 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 3, 2024 (inferred)
“I think that... So my prediction is in q three, probably q four, the IPO market's gonna come back.”
Feb 17, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“Yeah, they're they're talking about it. So anyways, but I think I think the first kind of name brand IPOs that come out in maybe Q2 or Q3 are going get a much more positive reception than anticipated.”
Feb 17, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 30, 2023
“Because I think we're building up pressure here. I think the spring is being wound, and I think by Q3, Q4, we're going to see the IPO”
Feb 17, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“I I used to think that Disney was gonna buy the rest of Hulu. I think they're actually gonna sell it.”
Feb 10, 2023 · M&A · Checkable · by Feb 10, 2024 (inferred)
“They're gonna keep Discovery Plus a separate entity. And I think what that means is they're keeping it distinct such that they can sell it.”
Feb 10, 2023 · M&A · Checkable · by Feb 10, 2024 (inferred)
“We have effectively, again, potentially, we might avoid a recession.”
Feb 3, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 3, 2024 (inferred)
“It looks like we're growing again. The markets appear to love this. It looks like Chairman Powell has done his job and might be able to slow the increase in interest rates or even saying by end of the year, maybe beginning of next year, he might actually bring interest rates down.”
Feb 3, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Mar 31, 2024
“the the market share that Bing is gonna get in the ninety days after it launches like a ChatGPT inspired or driven product.”
Jan 27, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by May 27, 2023 (inferred)
“I think Bing is about to get so much trial.”
Jan 27, 2023 · Tech · Checkable · by Jul 27, 2023 (inferred)
“And the idea and the perception that Microsoft could be a new dominant force again in search is gonna take a $1,500,000,000,000 market cap company. If it just takes it up 10%, they've got a 15 x return on the 10,000,000,000 they put into OpenAI.”
Jan 27, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Jan 27, 2024 (inferred)
“So in sum, in six or twelve months, we're gonna look back on Microsoft and Satya Nadella. Keep in mind, he put a billion bucks into OpenAI in 2019 when no one was talking about it. We're gonna see this as one of the savviest corporate moves in a long, long time.”
Jan 27, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jan 27, 2024
“Disney's gonna appoint Nelson Peltz to their board.”
Jan 20, 2023 · M&A · Checkable · by Feb 19, 2023
“In the next thirty days, Nelson Peltz goes on the board of Disney.”
Jan 20, 2023 · M&A · Checkable · by Feb 19, 2023
“I think TikTok is gonna be in the next trillion dollar company.”
Jan 18, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jan 18, 2025 (inferred)
“And you're gonna see more Western allies move in with hard armor as they talk about the spring offensive.”
Jan 18, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2023 (inferred)
“I'm hoping you watch in the next two, three weeks, we're going to see Germany send some of their amazing leopard tanks. And it's going to make a difference.”
Jan 18, 2023 · Politics · Checkable · by Feb 8, 2023
“But I did find one company and this is my prediction. The biggest tech IPO in The EU, probably won't be in '23, it'll be in '24, is a German company. Does anyone wanna guess? And I I might not be right, but this is my prediction. The biggest tech IPO in The EU will be a German company. Salonis.”
Jan 13, 2023 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2024
“I think we're gonna wish we'd been more forgiving of ourselves and acknowledge the best trade in 2023 will be the capital, the weapons, the intelligence we are supplying to Ukraine.”
Jan 13, 2023 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Jan 1, 2073 (inferred)
“And this is a prediction I have for 2023, do a predictions tag. You're gonna see revenue growth decline in big tech and they're gonna have the most profitable quarters in history because they're looking at Twitter and go, if he can do this with 75% less people, can't we do what we're doing with 20%”
Jan 13, 2023 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“2023, I think the Patagonia vest recession is just getting started.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“Gonna see layoffs are just getting accelerated.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023
“The ad supported ecosystem is just gonna be chaos.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“We're gonna see chaos and consolidation. Yeah. We're gonna see consolidation of the subscale. Everyone from from AMC Networks to Lyft are gonna be acquired.”
Dec 20, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“We're gonna see chaos and consolidation. Yeah. We're gonna see consolidation of the subscale. Everyone from from AMC Networks to Lyft are gonna be acquired.”
Dec 20, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“Twenty twenty three's tech of the year, Kara, is going to be AI.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“And I think that 2023 is going be the year that the promise or the performance catches up to the promise, especially in medical school.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“I think we're going to see a lot of orange jumpsuits next year.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“Streaming consolidates, we're just going to see fewer streaming players. They're going to need to be acquired.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“The US reasserts its dominance and hegemony.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“Airbnb. I'm a shareholder in Airbnb. It's been cut in half. I think it's dominant, and I think it'll it'll rocket up again.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“Chinese Internet sector. I think Chinese Internet stocks are gonna... Are a great bargain right now. A basket of Chinese e commerce stocks that are traded a fraction of what their American peers trade at.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“best performing stock of big tech. Meta. Meta. It's been over punished. It's trading at a PE of an old economy firm right now.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“I just don't know if they're under that much serious threat, though, because I can't imagine the first piece of regulation is gonna be against Apple.”
Dec 20, 2022 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2024 (inferred)
“2023 is going be the year of AI.”
Dec 9, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“I think in my long shot acquisition here, I think Disney could acquire Roblox.”
Dec 9, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 9, 2023 (inferred)
“And my final prediction was The US reasserts its dominance and hegemony.”
Dec 9, 2022 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 9, 2023 (inferred)
Only if: China resolves its supply chain disruptions (works through the backlog/bottlenecks as its economy reopens)
“If they get the gunk out of the supply chain, that should lower costs, I think.”
Dec 9, 2022 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 9, 2023 (inferred)
“I I think Bezos is gonna come back to Amazon as CEO.”
Nov 18, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Nov 18, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Amazon's stock falls another 10-15% from its current level
“And so just think the moons are lining up for him to do a Howard Schultz. And if the stock's off another 10, 15%, I think he'll come back in for one to three years.”
Nov 18, 2022 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Nov 18, 2023 (inferred)
“Let me expand on Bezos will either come back or they'll spin AWS.”
Nov 18, 2022 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Nov 18, 2024 (inferred)
“We're gonna find out in the next twelve months, that the fraud that has taken place behind the scenes with a lack of visibility and a lack of regulation around crypto is gonna be, second only to... I think it's gonna be greater.”
Nov 11, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 11, 2023
“I think people will go to jail, but it won't take down the economy.”
Nov 11, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Nov 11, 2023 (inferred)
“I think people will go to jail, but it won't take down the economy.”
Nov 11, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 11, 2023 (inferred)
“I think you're gonna see the majority of these exchanges, including Coinbase, also including Binance, I think you're going see them go away or be severely impaired.”
Nov 11, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 11, 2023 (inferred)
“So my win is what I'm hoping will be a peaceful transfer power that inspires all of Latin America and quite frankly, unfortunately now, all of North America because we need more role models around this.”
Nov 1, 2022 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 1, 2023 (inferred)
“You're gonna see in the next three to six months a direct, credible new competitor to Twitter.”
Oct 28, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 28, 2023
“I believe that Senator Warnock and Mehmed Oz are gonna win their senate races.”
Oct 28, 2022 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 8, 2022 (inferred)
“I believe that Senator Warnock and Mehmed Oz are gonna win their senate races.”
Oct 28, 2022 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 8, 2022 (inferred)
“Laying off six of the 8,000 people at Twitter, of the 10,000 employees at Snap and Pinterest, within twelve months, I think 5,000 will be gone.”
Oct 25, 2022 · Tech · Checkable · by Oct 25, 2023
“The Twitter transaction is gonna close, and it's almost immediately... It will probably not be the worst acquisition in history.”
Oct 14, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 28, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: The Twitter acquisition deal closes.
“Within sixty seconds of closing, the world is gonna realize that this is the second worst acquisition in history.”
Oct 14, 2022 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Oct 28, 2022 (inferred)
“I think that Elon has screwed over so many people, and I think this 60 or 70% decline, on day one and the value of that asset means a lot of the equity players are probably gonna back out.”
Oct 7, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“He's gonna have to raise more equity because I think the kind of Wall Street crowd is just kinda had it with this guy.”
Oct 7, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“I don't think he can get debt now.”
Oct 7, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“he's gonna raise money from a payments guy slash sycophant.”
Oct 7, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“Anyways, my prediction is we're about to see a lot more articles about cracks and declines in The US housing market.”
Sep 30, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 30, 2023 (inferred)
“I think Northern Ireland is going to potentially talk about reunifying with Ireland.”
Sep 23, 2022 · Politics · Judgment call · by Sep 23, 2024 (inferred)
“I think Scotland is going to engage in a bid or an effort to try and rejoin the EU.”
Sep 23, 2022 · Politics · Judgment call · by Sep 23, 2024 (inferred)
“But I think you're going to see the Commonwealth, if you will, or the monarchy lose substantial territories.”
Sep 23, 2022 · Politics · Judgment call · by Sep 23, 2024 (inferred)
“In the next ninety days, we're either gonna see a fairly dramatic change in ownership structure, or we're gonna see regulation proposed that is like... That is Trump like.”
Sep 16, 2022 · Politics · Either/or · Judgment call · by Dec 15, 2022
“And I think the first entree to gather more data will be preventive care.”
Jul 26, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jul 26, 2024 (inferred)
“But I think the industry that is almost the ripest, so healthcare is the ripest industry in the world for disruption, but it's a $3,000,000,000,000 industry. And within that industry, the ripest of ripe for disruption will be the second place they will go, and that is insurance.”
Jul 26, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jul 26, 2024 (inferred)
“And if you ever meet somebody who's not that intelligent but likable and makes $500,000 a year, chances are they work in insurance. Is any industry that has a lot of golf, any industry that has a lot of like former fraternity rush chairman, if $0.45 on the dollar in insurance goes to profits and administration, they will, at some point in the next twenty four to thirty six months, you will walk in and Alexa will say”
Jul 26, 2022 · Tech · Checkable · by Jul 26, 2025
“Walmart's gonna go low, and Amazon's gonna go high.”
Jul 26, 2022 · Other · Judgment call · by Jul 26, 2024 (inferred)
“Walmart's gonna go low, and Amazon's gonna go high.”
Jul 26, 2022 · Other · Judgment call · by Jul 26, 2024 (inferred)
“I believe that Donald Trump is going to be indicted.”
Jul 22, 2022 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 22, 2023 (inferred)
“I also believe that Chancellor McCormick is gonna make very short order of this Twitter case and just say, this is a contract. You signed it. You're a big boy. Pay up.”
Jul 22, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 22, 2023 (inferred)
“I think, essentially in social media, the subscale players, Twitter, Snap, and Pinterest, one or two of them in twelve months is probably not going to be an independent company.”
Jul 19, 2022 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Jul 19, 2023
“I think of these three companies, you already have you have one guy who's painted himself into a corner is gonna have to show up with $54.20.”
Jul 19, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 19, 2023 (inferred)
“And so my prediction is it just makes sense. The third domino to fall here, even though I believe it's also dual class shareholder,”
Jul 19, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 19, 2023 (inferred)
“I think the next point to prediction is you're gonna see something happen in the next twelve months Yep. Around Snap because it's a great product.”
Jul 19, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jul 19, 2023
“They've handled this perfectly. They haven't gotten personal. They have been restrained, and they're gonna get their shareholders $54.20 a share.”
Jul 15, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 15, 2023 (inferred)
“I think discovery is gonna be really awful for Elon.”
Jul 12, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jul 12, 2023 (inferred)
“And so my prediction is this is gonna go on further and that this lunch, I think that Elon is gonna be served a colder lunch than people are currently anticipating.”
Jul 12, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jul 12, 2023 (inferred)
Only if: The litigation/discovery process goes on long enough to force disclosure of such information.
“The other thing I think will be really interesting is I do think there were likely, and I think they're gonna have to disclose this if the case goes long enough. There were other suitors who wouldn't pay this price, but would say we'd be interested in talking”
Jul 12, 2022 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 12, 2023 (inferred)
“So I think Bitcoin, just as in '99, everybody says... Uses... You know, talks about, okay. In '99, they cleared out all this shit, and then there are some enduring companies. It looks as if Bitcoin is going to be enduring.”
Jul 5, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 5, 2023 (inferred)
“I do think an indictment is coming. And I think that'll be a big deal.”
Jul 1, 2022 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 1, 2023 (inferred)
“you're gonna see a ton of funds, VC funds. There's gonna be a lot of news about failing VC funds and tech investors”
Jul 1, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 1, 2023 (inferred)
“you're gonna see a lot of, like, brand name funds close or put up gates.”
Jul 1, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 1, 2023 (inferred)
“For the first time in over a decade, there's going be a very active secondary market where funds are so desperate to raise capital, they sell the positions in the companies that are working”
Jul 1, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 1, 2023 (inferred)
“Yeah. It feels so my prediction is Roku and a dinner bell has rung and will not be unwrung, and I think you're gonna see a variety of potential suitors”
Jun 14, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Jun 14, 2023 (inferred)
“Twitter right now is at about $40 a share, which is way off the supposed closing price of $54.20. It's gonna be in the twenties, in the next, I don't know, thirty to sixty days”
Jun 7, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Aug 6, 2022
“The person who agreed to buy it is not going to buy it, and it's very difficult to enforce.”
Jun 7, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Aug 6, 2022 (inferred)
“there really isn't another deal here done at a lower price because the board can't accept a lower price from a guy whose agreement or commitments mean nothing.”
Jun 7, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Aug 6, 2022 (inferred)
“I think it's gonna be the biggest layoff we've had across what I'll call information age companies since probably 2008.”
May 24, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 24, 2023 (inferred)
“But I think we're gonna a lot of this over the next six or twelve months.”
May 24, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 24, 2023
“And then in eighteen to twenty four months, I think the entire tech ecosystem is gonna be stronger.”
May 24, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 24, 2024
“I think you're gonna see a lot of warranted scrutiny of firms claiming to be ESG, and we're gonna realize it's all bullshit.”
May 24, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 24, 2023 (inferred)
“I think this whole ESG thing has become... It's gonna become a useless, weird term.”
May 24, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 24, 2023 (inferred)
“you're about to see the great layoff. It's gonna be amongst Great layoff. The unicorn folks that we have been just hiring everyone for so long. And it didn't matter. Just grow, just grow, just grow. Pay them what they want. These companies now are gonna go into a room and go, we need to reduce SG and A by 20 or 30%.”
May 17, 2022 · Tech · Checkable · by May 17, 2023
“Frontline workers, our employment's gonna be really strong. You know, Panera, we just can't get. We can't find people fast enough, and we need people, and people have money.”
May 17, 2022 · Other · Judgment call · by May 17, 2023 (inferred)
“But you're about to see the great information age layoff, over the next six to twelve months. That company, that site layoff tracker is about to get really, really active.”
May 17, 2022 · Tech · Checkable · by May 17, 2023
“Buy now, pay later is the equivalent of the subprime crisis brewing for millennials and Gen z.”
May 10, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 10, 2023 (inferred)
“my prediction is you're gonna hear a lot more about buy now, pay later credit in this credit bubble”
May 10, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 10, 2023 (inferred)
“There's just very few companies that are gonna go untouched from their pretty significant drawdown.”
May 3, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 3, 2023 (inferred)
“And I just think everyone's in this consensual hallucination that we can continue to avoid recessions forever.”
May 3, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by May 3, 2023 (inferred)
“There's gonna be so many layoffs all of a sudden,”
Apr 26, 2022 · Media · Checkable · by Apr 26, 2023 (inferred)
“You're about to see enormous consolidation and radical cost cutting at the biggest and strongest. I mean, it'll be everyone, maybe with the exception of Apple TV plus and Amazon Prime Video, because they have just literally infinitely deep pockets.”
Apr 26, 2022 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 26, 2023 (inferred)
“The current structure of discovery is not... Does not survive twenty four months.”
Apr 26, 2022 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 26, 2024
“I think they're gonna they're gonna have to find ways to monetize some of these assets and that the disposition of some of these assets will be accretive.”
Apr 26, 2022 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 26, 2024 (inferred)
“I think you're gonna see an activist come in when the stock hits”
Apr 26, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 26, 2023 (inferred)
“Two players are gonna emerge in the Twitter battle, the SEC and Salesforce.”
Apr 19, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“Two players are gonna emerge in the Twitter battle, the SEC and Salesforce.”
Apr 19, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“Now the media firm that has the greatest assets in a single class of shares and is in play from day one, I. E. Now, is Warner. An activist shows up in the next twelve months with ideas on how to quote unquote add value minus all the ridiculous fucking Twitter polls.”
Apr 12, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Apr 12, 2023
“The stock's gonna go sideways because the takeout premium has been starched out,”
Apr 8, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 8, 2022 (inferred)
“and he's gonna get bored with it.”
Apr 8, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 8, 2022 (inferred)
“I'm actually bullish on NFTs.”
Apr 1, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 1, 2023 (inferred)
“She's wrong. It's a blip.”
Apr 1, 2022 · Other · Judgment call · by Apr 1, 2024 (inferred)
“He's not gonna get it for this. It's just not the kind of movie.”
Apr 1, 2022 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 31, 2023 (inferred)
“So my prediction is that as we come to grips with what these little instances of normalizing violence are and the repercussions, we're going to realize that our society needs to absolutely reject this and redefine masculinity as that strength and power in advocating for others is one thing.”
Mar 29, 2022 · Media · Judgment call · by Mar 29, 2023 (inferred)
“But I think we're gonna... There's just so many stories about almost 4,000,000 Ukrainian refugees so far. Expect 10,000,000, you know, heroic efforts to survive and save others.”
Mar 29, 2022 · Politics · Checkable · by Sep 29, 2022 (inferred)
“So I'm trying to reposition a win as a prediction. I think we're gonna look back on this period and find just moments, millions of moments of heroism taking place in in Ukraine.”
Mar 29, 2022 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Mar 29, 2023 (inferred)
“You're gonna see in the next three to... In the next six months, once a week and once there's some cloud cover from some some high flyers that do this, you're gonna see layoffs in the hundreds of people, at some of these unicorns.”
Mar 25, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 25, 2022
“So one of the silver linings coming out of the pandemic is a boom in entrepreneurship. It's very it's very exciting.”
Mar 25, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 25, 2023 (inferred)
“my prediction is, and I was inspired by just comments earlier, I think we're gonna find out, Kara, in about Uh-huh. Three to six months Yeah. That in the last two weeks through, call call it the end of February and the middle of March, a bunch of distressed credit hedge funds and banks, including Goldman Sachs, that their best performing once in a kind of generation investment was buying distressed bonds from Russian companies.”
Mar 18, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 18, 2022
“I also believe the metaverse is already shaping up to be a 10,000,000,000 thud for them.”
Mar 18, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Mar 18, 2023 (inferred)
“People are gonna find they can't. I think they're gonna find they can't, but they'll still have these incredible cash flows.”
Mar 18, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Mar 18, 2023 (inferred)
“I think the world's largest leveraged buyout is Putin is gonna take the largest companies in Russia, take them private, and then he's gonna redol out these companies to the new generation of oligarchs.”
Mar 11, 2022 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 11, 2023 (inferred)
“I think an influencer is about... A really big influencer in social media, who's maybe Russian or maybe not, is about to become a billionaire.”
Mar 11, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 11, 2023 (inferred)
“Strikes me it's now become sort of a GoFundMe or a payments platform. And it just got me thinking that Airbnb is probably gonna evolve into the launch of credit cards, similar to the SBG credit card, where you get 2% credit on Airbnb stays.”
Mar 8, 2022 · Tech · Checkable · by Mar 8, 2023 (inferred)
“And everyone's in a race for super app, right? Uber's now doing food, ticket reservations, event reservations. Everyone's in a race for super app. And Airbnb's really elegant UI and design could push them into dating, into payments, into banking.”
Mar 8, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Mar 8, 2023 (inferred)
“I feel like a restraining order is coming. That's my prediction. A restraining order.”
Mar 4, 2022 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 4, 2023 (inferred)
“Jeff Bezos is gonna buy the Denver broncos or another NFL team.”
Feb 25, 2022 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Feb 25, 2023 (inferred)
“my prediction is Coachella is doing something interesting. They're selling 10 tokens or NFTs or... Wait. What are they? I think they call it a token that gives you lifetime access to the music festival. So far, the highest bid is 75 But this is the beginning. That's the tip of the iceberg. You're gonna see in 2022 what I call lux coins emerge, and that is, organizations that try to monetize the scarcity value of access.”
Feb 11, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022
“I think actually Twitter's gonna go to a FinTech, but anyways, or Salesforce.”
Feb 4, 2022 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Feb 4, 2023 (inferred)
“in the in the first four to six quarters Discovery as a public company reporting, their stock will get hammered”
Feb 4, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Aug 4, 2023
“someone will approach Stankey and take one or more assets out of it.”
Feb 4, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Aug 4, 2023
“we're about to see a tripling in real estate in a specific region. Any guess in 2022, we're gonna see a three to five X increase in the value of real estate in this neighborhood.”
Feb 4, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022
“So beginning of q two, we're gonna start to, I would say around the April or May, time frame, we're gonna start to get data Mhmm. Because Facebook's trying not to break out data around Oculus. But we're gonna get data that this thing is a giant flaming bag of shit.”
Jan 28, 2022 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 31, 2022
Only if: Oculus continues to not sell well to consumers
“I think there's a... I think... Well, my prediction is the following. I think Facebook will do this kind of two movement thing. They're gonna realize that it... It's not selling well, and they're gonna come up with all sorts of b to b or other commercial applications”
Jan 28, 2022 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 28, 2023 (inferred)
“And so I think my prediction is I just want to throw another one in the 70% off bin that it would be of real strategic value.”
Jan 21, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jan 21, 2023 (inferred)
“My prediction last year was they were gonna be a buyer or seller, but they topped out at about $500 a share. They're now at about one eighty.”
Jan 21, 2022 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Jan 21, 2023 (inferred)
“And also, I think the acquirer that's gonna announce something big, I guess this is sort of a prediction one a, Comcast needs to do something.”
Jan 21, 2022 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jan 21, 2023 (inferred)
“In 2022, we're finally going to see an overdue discussion around big ed.”
Jan 14, 2022 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022
“It's probably gonna be PayPal again. You know, PayPal's interested.”
Jan 14, 2022 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 14, 2023 (inferred)
“I think NFTs are actually more enduring than cryptocurrency because the new way you meet people is going to be online or even more so.”
Jan 7, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 7, 2023 (inferred)
“our means of signaling similar to Chanel handbags or Ferraris are going be NFTs.”
Jan 7, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 7, 2023 (inferred)
“And a lot of the companies, I believe this is the year where the movement trade unwinds.”
Jan 7, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022
“AMC and GameStop stock are not gonna be the most searched stories this year. And if they are, it's gonna be for all the wrong reasons.”
Jan 7, 2022 · Media · Either/or · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022
“You want to talk about a stock that's going to get kicked in the electric nuts over and over the next six to twelve months?”
Jan 7, 2022 · Markets · Checkable · by Jan 7, 2023
“my prediction, meme stocks, movement stocks, whatever you wanna call this, companies claiming to be solving climate change so they can cash out. Alright. The the reckoning is here in 2022.”
Jan 7, 2022 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022
“I think Americans are still going to buy iPhones regardless of where Apple manufactures them.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“I think it's optimistic to think that big American companies will take that sort of stand and withdraw from China.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“the Oculus, will go down as one of the Lisa and the Palm times 100.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023 (inferred)
“So I think the deflationary forces of technology will ultimately reign supreme here, and inflation will start to come down.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“I don't doubt that the metaverse is gonna kind of dominate the headlines as it relates to Facebook.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“This company is about to deservedly get a lot of scrutiny.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“Discovery plus as imagined will be broken up in its first year. It's not going to survive as an independent company.”
Dec 14, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Jun 1, 2023 (inferred)
“I think the EV market cap of Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla is going to get cut in half.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“I think the short opportunity of the century is DWAC.”
Dec 14, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“my usual stuff, Twitter will be acquired, all that good stuff.”
Dec 14, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“My prediction is Salesforce or a fintech company is gonna acquire Alright. Twitter by the end of two thousand and twenty two.”
Dec 10, 2021 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022
“SpaceX well, this is like probably a three to five year. I think SpaceX ultimately ends up being worth more than Tesla.”
Dec 3, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 3, 2026
“We were talking about CNN. I think that within twelve months the new discovery is it plus as it's envisioned is going to be either broken up or taken over.”
Dec 3, 2021 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 3, 2022
“going to be an offer for Twitter because all this bullshit with Jack and Elliot kind of ossified the company or put it into a period of stasis. Now that they have a new relatively owned CEO from internally, the stock's down,”
Dec 3, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Mar 3, 2022
“Apple has filed a patent for a camera to go into the base of your AirPods, your AirPod Maxes. And I think the next shoe to drop in the metaverse is in the next three months. And I think Tim Cook is cooking this up and it just... Is just loving this. Yeah. I think Apple is gonna show up and say, okay, playtime is over. The metaverse is here. It's called the App Store.”
Nov 19, 2021 · Tech · Checkable · by Feb 19, 2022
“I I think I just love the fact that Mark Zuckerberg is is showing up with literally the biggest fucking thud in history, and that's the Oculus. That's his vision for the metaverse.”
Nov 19, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Nov 19, 2022 (inferred)
“Anyways, metaverse, big thud. Appleverse is gonna surprise to the upside.”
Nov 19, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Nov 19, 2022 (inferred)
“2022 is gonna be the the year of staggering M and A all in the pursuit of a super app.”
Nov 12, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022
“I think Jack Dorsey is gonna see God over the next two months clean up a ton of accounts, show shitty earnings and growth, puke on himself, the stock will go down to 40,”
Nov 12, 2021 · Tech · Checkable · by Jan 12, 2022
“the stock will go down to 40, and then Square is gonna acquire Twitter and try and become a Tencent.”
Nov 12, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“and then Square is gonna acquire Twitter and try and become a Tencent.”
Nov 12, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“In the next five days, we're gonna see more progress around the Build Back America bill or the infrastructure on both bills. Going to see more progress in the next seventy two hours than we've seen in the last seventy two days.”
Nov 5, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 10, 2021
“Frances Haugen is absolutely going to be person of the year,”
Oct 29, 2021 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“I think there's a chance she'll get the Peace Prize.”
Oct 29, 2021 · Other · Judgment call · by Oct 29, 2026 (inferred)
“But this is gonna put Snap and Twitter in play.”
Oct 22, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by Oct 22, 2022 (inferred)
“You're going to see some pretty serious deal making I think in the next six to twelve months. I think Square taking out Twitter is pretty obvious but I think Shopify shows up and does something.”
Oct 22, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 22, 2022
“I think Square taking out Twitter is pretty obvious but I think Shopify shows up and does something.”
Oct 22, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by Oct 22, 2022
“And even Amazon I think is going to get into diagnostic and health.”
Oct 15, 2021 · Tech · Checkable · by Oct 15, 2022 (inferred)
“I think Apple and Amazon are about to like meet in a dark alley over healthcare and start going at each other.”
Oct 15, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 15, 2022 (inferred)
“I think Apple and Amazon are both gonna be like, that's, they're gonna be both the fastest growing healthcare companies in the world over $1,000,000,000.”
Oct 15, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 15, 2022 (inferred)
“Tim Cook and Andy Jassy are gonna have a real fight.”
Oct 15, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 15, 2022 (inferred)
“It won't. Apple won't be cheap. Apple Apple won't be”
Oct 8, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 8, 2024 (inferred)
“Well, we know it's coming. We just don't know if it's a year or ten years.”
Oct 8, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by Oct 8, 2031
“You know what I think? I I actually think there is gonna be a pert block.”
Oct 8, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Oct 8, 2023 (inferred)
Only if: If a Facebook-related 'perp walk' (criminal charge/arrest) occurs
“I am not sure it's gonna be one of the the big names, though. That's the thing. I think they'll... I think they're gonna... I mean, when they go after them, they try and find someone mid level usually to get them to flip, to put pressure on them.”
Oct 8, 2021 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Oct 8, 2023 (inferred)
“I think these companies, as a lot of industries, have incurred are about to be rolled over by big tech. I think Amazon and Apple are coming into all types of wellness and streaming media, if you will. And I think organizations like Calm and Headspace are really going to suffer.”
Oct 1, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 1, 2022 (inferred)
“And a lot of these fitness apps that have gotten some traction are, in my opinion, just going to be run over.”
Oct 1, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 1, 2022 (inferred)
“And that is it's estimated that by the end of the year, get this, America, we are supposedly going to waste or destroy 100 to two fifty million doses of vaccine, enough vaccine to probably vaccinate three or four Central and Latin American countries.”
Oct 1, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“It'll be really interesting to see what happens with Peloton, by the way.”
Oct 1, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 1, 2022 (inferred)
“I just don't think that wine ages well.”
Oct 1, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Oct 1, 2022 (inferred)
“I think both Biden and DeSantis are probably... Are gonna see... Are are gonna get... Quite frankly, are gonna benefit from this... Those... Both those decisions.”
Oct 1, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Oct 1, 2022 (inferred)
“I think either the case, the antitrust case in Texas, which has criminal remedies, is going to be federalized.”
Sep 24, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Sep 24, 2022 (inferred)
“I think in the next ninety to one hundred and eighty days, we're gonna see, criminal charges, filed against someone or the corporation of Facebook.”
Sep 24, 2021 · Politics · Either/or · Checkable · by Mar 23, 2022
“So my prediction is I think the SPAC market may have officially jumped the shark.”
Sep 17, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 17, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Aspiration's SPAC merger/IPO goes through and the company goes public
“I think this could if this thing gets out, I don't know if it will, I think it's going be the poster child for literally Fonzie jumping over a shark.”
Sep 17, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Sep 17, 2022 (inferred)
“Two of these companies, Hey Jane and Avia, two small startups that I think are gonna get more attention.”
Sep 10, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Sep 10, 2022 (inferred)
“You're gonna have six or seven of the top 10 schools from a brand equity standpoint, not be these people posing as Hermes. It's gonna be great public universities that every year try and expand their admissions.”
Sep 10, 2021 · Other · Checkable · by Sep 10, 2022 (inferred)
“I think SpaceX is an incredible company that's well managed and has incredible prospects. And I think it's gonna soak up the space market.”
Sep 10, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Sep 10, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Tim Cook unveils an Apple-branded car (expected within the next twelve months)
“And then the $250,000,000,000 transfer event that's gonna take place in the next twelve months is when Tim Cook gets on stage and pulls a silk curtain off a car with an Apple logo on it. Mhmm. From that point over the next hundred and eighty days, a $250,000,000,000 of market cap is gonna transfer from Tesla to Apple.”
Sep 10, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Mar 9, 2023
“In three years, SpaceX is worth more than Tesla.”
Sep 10, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Sep 10, 2024
“This is my prediction. I think that our elected leaders, I think their backbone is stiffening, and I think the data is so overwhelming that there has never been in the history of our modern economy Mhmm. A product that offers so much benefit at so little risk and so little cost. Yeah. This is this is a blessing. And for the government to decide on this one, similar to the decisions they've made elsewhere that this is good for the nation and you have to do this, it's time. And it's gonna happen.”
Jul 31, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 31, 2022 (inferred)
“Vaccine passports, mandatory proof of vaccination, public transportation to work for the government.”
Jul 31, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 31, 2022 (inferred)
“The Republican Party, it's going to be these pockets, these vaccine deserts that are gonna get decimated and they're almost all red districts.”
Jul 31, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 31, 2022 (inferred)
“I don't think we're going back into lockdown.”
Jul 31, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 31, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: If mask mandates or lockdowns are reimposed or called for
“I mean, they will call for lockdowns. I think you're gonna see really poor compliance.”
Jul 31, 2021 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 31, 2022 (inferred)
“But as a public stock, and this is really more of a prediction, this thing is not gonna hold its value. It just makes no sense.”
Jul 27, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 27, 2022 (inferred)
“I think companies including Overture and some of these sonic, sonic, transportation companies or supersonic transportation companies deserve and will start to get more attention.”
Jul 23, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jul 23, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Supersonic aircraft become available that can fly from New York to London in two and a half hours
“If I can get from New York to London Yeah. In two and a half hours Yeah. There is an enormous market of people who will pay $5.10, or $15,000 for that.”
Jul 23, 2021 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 23, 2022 (inferred)
“I think Virgin Galactic is gonna be the poster child for the SPAC in the space bubble.”
Jul 16, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 16, 2022 (inferred)
“But my prediction is within six months you're going to see a pivot. They're going start talking about point to point supersonic travel or space cargo.”
Jul 16, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Jan 16, 2022
“I don't know who will be the first $2,000,000,000,000 company, but the first 3,000,000,000,000 would be Amazon.”
Jul 9, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 9, 2022 (inferred)
“I think the public markets are going to incur incredible volatility, and we're going to see some of the most step change downs in the market. I think we're going to have some of those volatile days in the market in the next six months”
Jul 9, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 9, 2022
“Disney is going to introduce what I think is the most exciting recurring revenue bundle in the consumer world. Think every family is going to have to own it and it's going to take OTT to offline online,”
Jul 9, 2021 · Media · Checkable · by Jul 9, 2022 (inferred)
“Record year for new business startups.”
Jul 2, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“We're gonna see new business formation go back to where it was in the Carter administration.”
Jul 2, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“We're going to see more new business started in the second half of twenty twenty one in six months. Alright. Period in the last thirty or forty years.”
Jul 2, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“In the next twenty four months, we'll see two or three new viable, robust start ups in social media.”
Jun 25, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 25, 2023
“We're gonna see new hardware companies.”
Jun 25, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 25, 2023 (inferred)
“We're gonna see new search engines.”
Jun 25, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 25, 2023 (inferred)
“We're gonna see new ad tech platforms.”
Jun 25, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 25, 2023 (inferred)
“There's gonna be more funding, more new startups, more m and a in the ad tech, social media, search, even computer hardware space in the next twenty four months,”
Jun 25, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jun 25, 2023
“And you know who I think started a really robust social network? Who? Peloton.”
Jun 25, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 25, 2022 (inferred)
“The passion the passion and the demographic there and engagement, I think they could start a... Like, I think niche social media platforms are gonna start to emerge. And I think Peloton's gonna start”
Jun 25, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 25, 2022 (inferred)
“You'll be working at CNN within a year. They're gonna throw up in earnings and the Roberts family is sitting there in the weeds waiting for that stock, that single class of share stocks with a $250,000,000,000 market cap, which Comcast has. New head of CNN politics, Chuck Todd. Within Oh. Within twenty four months, Comcast”
Jun 22, 2021 · Media · Checkable · by Jun 22, 2023
“I think the level of inflation here across everything I see is so extraordinary that the narrative is just BS.”
Jun 18, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“I think we're headed into an era of higher interest rates in the last half of the year and we should track this.”
Jun 18, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“I think the economy is gonna boom. GDP is gonna go way up.”
Jun 18, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“my prediction is that the markets end up lower by the end of the year”
Jun 18, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“we're gonna have extreme volatility in q three and q four with some, kind of four figure drops, in the Dow.”
Jun 18, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“Space travel is expensive and really dangerous.”
Jun 11, 2021 · Other · Judgment call · by Jun 11, 2022 (inferred)
“I think most likely they'll go after trusts.”
Jun 11, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Jun 11, 2023 (inferred)
“I think real estate taxes are probably a lot of those loopholes are gonna be closed.”
Jun 11, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Jun 11, 2023 (inferred)
“I think this G7 tax treaty is going to there's going to be different forms of it that come into America.”
Jun 11, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Jun 11, 2023 (inferred)
“And I think there's going to be some sort of AMT on the top 1%.”
Jun 11, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Jun 11, 2023 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna see increased market share across the iOS subscription part of the world.”
Jun 4, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 4, 2022 (inferred)
“That has never happened in the history of business, and it is unsustainable.”
Jun 4, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 4, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Other players in the search market capture 1% of the search market's revenue
“Subscription is such a superior business, and the marketplace values it in a multiple of revenues versus multiple of EBITDA, that if other players in search capture 1% of the revenue of the search market, they'll capture 10% of the market cap, which by the way is $160,000,000,000”
Jun 4, 2021 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 4, 2022 (inferred)
“So you're gonna see a variety of niche players, including Niva, that say we're gonna exit the ecosystem that paints us into a business model where we're no longer focused on the end consumer or the creator.”
Jun 4, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 4, 2022 (inferred)
“Twitter will have a new CEO.”
May 28, 2021 · Tech · Checkable · by May 28, 2022 (inferred)
“Tesla's stock will be cut in half, Kara. You heard it here.”
May 28, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by May 28, 2022 (inferred)
“the requisite investments that NewCo, Discovery, whatever they're calling it, Discovery Plus, Discovery Communications is gonna have to make to show that they're a player and meet the expectations around subscriber growth around streaming is gonna require such an extraordinary investment that NewCo is gonna have... Is gonna miss on earnings.”
May 28, 2021 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2023 (inferred)
“The stock will go down,”
May 28, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2023 (inferred)
“this company is gonna be put in play by Comcast or someone else who will come in and become a larger shareholder.”
May 28, 2021 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2023 (inferred)
Only if: the United States does not catch up and start going on the offense in manufacturing
“And my loss is that I think China has the opportunity to come, unfortunately, come out of this pandemic as a new global leader unless we catch up and start going on the offense in manufacturing.”
May 25, 2021 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 25, 2022 (inferred)
“I just don't see Brian Roberts deciding to sit on the sidelines and say, Oh, that's interesting.”
May 21, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by May 21, 2022 (inferred)
“I think that Comcast saying to their bankers, well, what could we do? And he'll call Stankey and say, look, you have an obligation to consider this. He'll initially rebuff them and say, sorry, boss, your shareholders demand that you take a very hard look at this.”
May 21, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by May 21, 2022 (inferred)
“So in the next... I always get the timing wrong. I was going say the next seven days, I'll broaden it to the next thirty days. The SEC or regulatory agency is going to initiate action or announce scrutiny around market manipulation as it relates to cryptocurrencies. They may not even use Elon Musk's name, but it'll be clear who they're talking about.”
May 14, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 13, 2021
“What we also could see, because this individual is fearless and has shown an ability to create markets in crypto, we may see a Tesla coin or a Musk coin or a Musk backed or endorsed coin.”
May 14, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by May 14, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Elon Musk launches a Tesla coin, Musk coin, or Musk-backed/endorsed cryptocurrency
“And I think he sees an opportunity, and this is unfortunate, but I think Elon Musk could probably increase his wealth 10 to $50,000,000,000 in six months by”
May 14, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Nov 14, 2021
“I just don't like the notion that one individual can move markets like this. I think it's really, I don't think that ends well.”
May 7, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 7, 2022 (inferred)
“I think I'm selling by the time we hit weekend update because that's when everyone will kind of go to sleep, right?”
May 7, 2021 · Markets · Unfalsifiable · by May 9, 2021
“Yahoo is the fourth most trafficked Internet site in the world. That's in it. Any competent management there, any vision, any reasonable owner there is gonna make that thing worth $10,000,000,000 in twelve months.”
May 4, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by May 4, 2022
“Then and then another another company that was recently worth $5,000,000,000 Clubhouse is gonna be worth less than 1,000,000,000 within twelve months.”
May 4, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by May 4, 2022
“They're gonna do a skit on Doge coin. Doge coin's gonna become increasingly volatile around the... When SNL plays.”
Apr 30, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by May 15, 2021 (inferred)
“it's up till May House and Senate committees and the SEC are all gonna freak out when they realize we now have one individual who can not only manipulate the markets or I don't know, pump the markets.”
Apr 30, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 31, 2021
“I think Val Demings, rep... Representative Demings, has kind of had her moment. I think she'll be the Democratic nominee for governor of Florida, which makes her a vice presidential candidate for the Democratic Party.”
Apr 23, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 8, 2022 (inferred)
“I think she'll be the Democratic nominee for governor of Florida, which makes her a vice presidential candidate for the Democratic Party.”
Apr 23, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2024 (inferred)
“I think that just as WeWork rose from the ashes, you're going to see another brand rise from the ashes and that is Quibi. Quibi. Quibi. At least the content from Quibi.”
Apr 23, 2021 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 23, 2022 (inferred)
“And I think they're going to bring a lot of that content in short form, quick bites back to life. And I think all of a sudden Roku and its vertical content this is a gangster movie no one's talking about.”
Apr 23, 2021 · Media · Judgment call · by Apr 23, 2022 (inferred)
“Yeah. It's just that they were they were trying to charge you you get a dollar for every billion dollars in content from the most of the streaming services, and they were trying to charge $8. And shocker, people didn't wanna sign up for every billion dollars in content. Anyways, also, I think we're gonna have a much broader conversation around the role of whether or not elite universities should in fact be nonprofits.”
Apr 23, 2021 · Other · Judgment call · by Apr 23, 2022 (inferred)
“I think it's 300 by the end of the year.”
Apr 16, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“Compass, we predicted this. Compass is a now a broken IPO, and I think it's in the single digits.”
Apr 16, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 16, 2022 (inferred)
“And I think that Janet Yellen and some of the people in the administration are gonna recognize that this is an existential threat, and we're gonna see”
Apr 16, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Apr 16, 2022 (inferred)
“LG's handset company was closed down. It's gonna be revived by a big tech platform.”
Apr 9, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Apr 9, 2022 (inferred)
“Facebook is the leader. Think Roku's the number two.”
Apr 9, 2021 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Apr 9, 2022 (inferred)
“we're gonna see an intrastate tax treaty mandated at a federal level.”
Apr 9, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 9, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: an interstate tax treaty is mandated at the federal level
“It'll be bad for Florida and Texas because a huge source of economic growth for them is people coming down with their unrealized gains and buying fat houses and”
Apr 9, 2021 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 9, 2022 (inferred)
“But it... I don't think it's sustainable.”
Apr 9, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Apr 9, 2022 (inferred)
“things like the real, I think other kind of tier two currencies are just going to get hammered.”
Apr 6, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 6, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: India decides to embrace Bitcoin as its default currency/cryptocurrency
“if India decides to embrace Bitcoin, you could see Bitcoin go to skyrocket”
Apr 6, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 6, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: No new COVID-19 variant emerges that can evade the vaccines
“I'm very confident the real economy, unless there's some sort of variant that shows up that can sneak around the vaccine, which is why we all need to get vaccinated sooner rather than later. But other than that, the real economy is going to boom,”
Apr 6, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 6, 2022 (inferred)
“You could see a market where the GDP goes up 8%, consumer spending is at all time high, and the market corrects 20%. Those could happen.”
Apr 6, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 6, 2022 (inferred)
“I think that my prediction is WeWork, shockingly enough, is going to overperform over the next twelve months.”
Apr 2, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 2, 2022
“Microsoft will be the most valuable company in the world again.”
Mar 26, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Mar 26, 2022 (inferred)
“I think in the next few weeks, we're literally going to pivot to a demand side problem instead of a supply side problem.”
Mar 19, 2021 · Other · Judgment call · by Apr 16, 2021
“Anyways, think we're, the prediction is I think we're gonna have vaccine passports and I think slowly but surely corporations and States and governments are going to say, look”
Mar 19, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 19, 2022 (inferred)
“I think the term Coursera and Coursera IPO are going to be terms we that are going be in the business news and on CNBC a lot.”
Mar 12, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 1, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: Coursera's IPO and the lead-up to it cement the company's brand as the leader and pioneer in the shift from campus-based to online learning
“Coursera, if they cement, if the IPO cements and the lead up to the IPO cements their brand as sort of the leader and the pioneer in the dispersion of campus to online learning, you could have a company that could really rock it on its IPO and pull the future forward of that additional capital.”
Mar 12, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 1, 2021 (inferred)
“my prediction is that just as no one had heard about Roblox four months ago and now everyone's talking about it, we're about to go through the same upward cycle of awareness and value creation just through perception around Coursera.”
Mar 12, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 1, 2021 (inferred)
“I don't think it happens because if you look at the history of wealth taxes, if they're annual, they'd end up not working because very smart, talented billionaires are the most mobile people in the world.”
Mar 5, 2021 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 5, 2022 (inferred)
“So I think the more interesting conversation we're gonna start to have is some sort of what I'll call value accretion tax. And that is, you can't do an Elon Musk and add the GDP of Hungary to your net worth and leverage the town of Alameda, leverage the incredible innovation that the Bay Area brings, leverage again, Cal State, University of California, and then all of a sudden decide you got a hankering for Texas.”
Mar 5, 2021 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 5, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Goldman Sachs gets serious about a subscription model or going vertical into distribution
“I think that my prediction is that one of the strongest brands in the world, actually I think it's the strongest brand in the services economy globally and has underperformed all of its peers the last five years and would see an increase of 50 to 70% if they got serious about subscription or going vertical, is Goldman Sachs.”
Feb 26, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Feb 26, 2022 (inferred)
“I think Goldman Sachs is gonna attract an activist in the next nine months or, and by the way, full disclosure, I work with Goldman.”
Feb 26, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Nov 26, 2021
“Goldman Sachs moves to subscription.”
Feb 26, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 26, 2022 (inferred)
“I think space travel, I'm I'm... One of my other predictions is I think, space travel and all the excitement around space, I think it's a technology that's gonna end in tears for investors. I think it's expensive and dangerous.”
Feb 26, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 26, 2023 (inferred)
“I think he is going to announce something at Twitter around, around crypto, involving, like, your ability to start your own coin trading plan.”
Feb 19, 2021 · Tech · Checkable · by Apr 20, 2021 (inferred)
“But you're gonna see some big announcements from what I'll call old line, old economy companies around Bitcoin.”
Feb 19, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 20, 2021 (inferred)
“it's gonna be in the news a lot in the next sixty days.”
Feb 19, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 20, 2021
“Bitcoin's about to hit $50,000”
Feb 16, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Mar 16, 2021 (inferred)
“You're about to see a couple 100 companies try and cast themselves under the Bitcoin light and move part of their treasury to Bitcoin.”
Feb 16, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 16, 2022 (inferred)
“I actually am revising my prediction. I think Bitcoin's gonna hit 100,000.”
Feb 16, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 16, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Jack Dorsey makes an announcement involving Bitcoin within the next sixty days (by approximately April 17, 2021).
“I think Twitter's going to $100 on an announcement from Jack Dorsey involving Bitcoin in the next sixty days.”
Feb 16, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Apr 17, 2021
“Yes, I think it's a lot of blah blah but they'll make slow progress but they finally appear to be getting serious about it.”
Feb 16, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 16, 2022 (inferred)
“I think Twitter should and will acquire CNN.”
Feb 12, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Feb 12, 2022 (inferred)
“Supposedly they're going to get somewhere between 6 and 9,000,000,000.”
Feb 12, 2021 · M&A · Checkable · by Feb 12, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: If AT&T's John Stankey and the CFO run a sale process and obtain an offer of $7 billion or more for CNN
“I think John Stankey is going to get together with the CFO, run a quiet process, and if they can get $7,000,000,000 or more for CNN, it's gone.”
Feb 12, 2021 · M&A · Conditional · Checkable · by Feb 12, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: If Twitter acquires CNN
“Their stock, they pay for this acquisition within 60 days of the acquisition.”
Feb 12, 2021 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Feb 12, 2022 (inferred)
“my prediction is very straightforward. The GameStop is reattaching to the fundamentals and within two weeks is going be trading somewhere between $25 and $50 a share.”
Feb 5, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 19, 2021
“those people are gonna rethink it the next time. I just don't think you're gonna see see the same level.”
Feb 5, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 5, 2022 (inferred)
“We're going see the SEC and FINRA weigh in here, but they'll weigh in on both sides and there'll be some sort of regulation or some sort of new guide rules, but it'll impact the existing players recognizing the new guys aren't doing anything different.”
Jan 29, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 29, 2022 (inferred)
“We're going to see some sort of platform create the opportunity to micro invest in influencers. And there's some very talented people doing fundamental analysis and also quite frankly, figuring out tools of influence and persuasion to create alpha and generate returns in the market. And somebody, some very smart entrepreneur is going to figure out a platform that lets you take five, 10, a 100 and disperse it to a group of individuals, kind of what I'll call creators or investors”
Jan 29, 2021 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jan 29, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: The US administers approximately 100 million vaccinations, targeted at the most vulnerable populations and those with high occupational contact with others
“if we get to, if we get to a 100,000,000 vaccinations, which is approximately a third of the population, if it's targeted at our most vulnerable and the people who have the most contact with other people as a function of their profession, we could probably fatalities down eighty percent.”
Jan 22, 2021 · Other · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 22, 2021
“I think that consumer stocks and the consumer economy is gonna roar for the next twelve to twenty four months.”
Jan 15, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 15, 2023
“So don't see in the short term, I don't see any catalyst for why they would come down. And that's about the moment that they crash. But I don't see them coming down in the short term.”
Jan 15, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 15, 2021 (inferred)
“think we're going find a lot of those businesses that got PPP loans. We were just building peers, not bridges, to tomorrow.”
Jan 15, 2021 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 15, 2022 (inferred)
“A third of restaurants could go away.”
Jan 15, 2021 · Markets · Checkable · by Jan 15, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Twitter removes Trump/controversial content ("the nose ring") and shows signs of progress on a subscription product
“I think Twitter is going to 70 plus bucks a share on very simple moves. One, they get rid of the nose ring and two, they...”
Dec 22, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: Twitter's stock price first reaches $70 per share
“Imagine if it'd be $70 a share, it could go to a $100 a share.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“these things are going to vastly underperform over the next two to three years.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2023
“my big prediction is 2021 is gonna be the that SPACs dramatically underperform.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021
“I do think there's going be a co working renaissance because I think small and medium sized firms are not gonna want... They're gonna want flexibility around office space. They'll need less of it, but they'll need it more on demand, if you will, and that's what coworking is.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“We're going to spend, I think, somewhere between 2030% gross net destruction in demand or time spent in commercial. And that most of that time is going to be reallocated across our attention graph to residential, which naturally means that 20% of the $12,000,000,000,000 or a couple trillion dollars”
Dec 22, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“you're about to see over the course of 2021, you're gonna see the 10 largest healthcare companies, in my view, probably lose 100 to 300,000,000,000 in combined market cap”
Dec 22, 2020 · Other · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“and it's all gonna go to Amazon.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021
“Amazon, Spotify, Apple will get into the business.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“those companies are gonna go for irrational multiples to these really deep pocketed bidders who've recognized that their house of cards could be Joe Rogan.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“people are going to decide my time's worth more than a dollar an hour, use technology to figure out a way to clean out all the tier two anchors, which they have a lot of.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“TikTok will continue to be massively in the news.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg will use it as their defense for a breakup.”
Dec 22, 2020 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“it's a no lose scenario for them because either that multiple on AT and T goes up because the narrative shifts from the worst acquisition in the last decade to the largest script company. Yeah. They say, okay, we're not getting additional multiples, so let's spin HBO, which will go at a monster number”
Dec 22, 2020 · Media · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021 (inferred)
“I don't think that the Robinhood IPO is gonna go as swimmingly or even happen as soon as the investors would like to think.”
Dec 18, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 18, 2021 (inferred)
“I think they will decide to cash in on this market capitalization and either go on an acquisition binge or merge with another very large kind of old mainline company.”
Dec 18, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“two, I think looking back, and this is a prediction we have to look back in three years, I think Zoom is shaping up to be the AOL of 2021.”
Dec 18, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 18, 2023
“Yeah. I think first trade tomorrow, it's triple digits. And it's always dangerous to make those predictions but I think Airbnb stock comes out at first trade as a triple digits.”
Dec 11, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 11, 2020
“2021, Amazon tries to get out. They don't want to be the third dot on this line. I think they prophylactically do a spin.”
Dec 11, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“while Facebook stock was off 2% and everybody including Mark Zuckerberg wants to think that this is a bad thing. No, it's not. This will unlock shareholder value. And their stock their stock goes up from here. It might dip in the short term, but their stock goes up.”
Dec 11, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 11, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: Trump vetoes the NDAA while demanding Section 230 be attached to or repealed via the bill.
“I think all of a sudden, Republican senators at the age of about 80 are gonna have their testicles descend, and we're gonna have the first override of a veto around this bullshit defense linking section two thirty to to defense.”
Dec 4, 2020 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Jan 15, 2021
“And Trump has has threatened to veto. I think he's so desperate for attention and relevance that he will likely veto this defense act and demand that two thirty is attached to it.”
Dec 4, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 15, 2021
“I think that this year's returns in the first half of twenty twenty one for venture capitalists are going to be probably record returns because you have companies that were gonna go public in two or three years potentially, go public in q four, q one, q”
Nov 27, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2021
“And the thing about froth is that by the time... When you start calling something frothy, that usually means it's gonna get even frothier for another twenty four months.”
Nov 27, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 27, 2022
“In the next six months, CNN's gonna be sold.”
Nov 20, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by May 20, 2021
“CNN is gonna have its best ratings since the Iraq War,”
Nov 20, 2020 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“they are going to kill it in terms of revenues this quarter.”
Nov 20, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020
Only if: Donald Trump starts his own paid over-the-top streaming platform
“Well, the latest one I heard was that he was gonna start his own paid over top thing. That won't work.”
Nov 20, 2020 · Media · Conditional · Judgment call · by Nov 20, 2021 (inferred)
“So Amazon's up 20% in the next seven weeks till its next earnings call, it maybe hits 4,000.”
Nov 13, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Jan 1, 2021
“But the majority of ecommerce sites are going to be overwhelmed, and they're going to start sending out emails saying, we're not sure you can get it there in time for Christmas.”
Nov 13, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 25, 2020
“I mean, it's just gonna be staggering the business Amazon is gonna do in the next six weeks.”
Nov 13, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 25, 2020
“Well, I'm I'm sticking to my guns. I got the calibration wrong, but I think it's Biden.”
Nov 6, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 10, 2020 (inferred)
“I think my prediction has always been that the civil unrest, the massive lawsuits, the post election, post results, agita, and I just don't think that's going to happen.”
Nov 6, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2021 (inferred)
“Think Georgia is going to be the really interesting end up being kind of the state, just as it was the blue wall in 'sixteen.”
Nov 6, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 10, 2020 (inferred)
“This election is over Tuesday night.”
Oct 30, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2020
“He is a keyboard coward. He's gonna lose all his support.”
Oct 30, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2020 (inferred)
“Republicans are gonna drop him like second period French when they see how badly he's gonna get his orange ass handed to him.”
Oct 30, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“We we will have a change in power, and these fears around moving to an autocratic society where we don't know what's gonna...”
Oct 30, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020
“He's gonna get his ass handed to him.”
Oct 30, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020
“And he's gonna leave.”
Oct 30, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 20, 2021 (inferred)
“So I think between now and the end of the year, we're going to see two or three of the most volatile days in the history of the markets.”
Oct 23, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020
“I think Airbnb is going to be the most valuable company in travel and hospitality and leisure in the next twelve months when it goes public.”
Oct 16, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 16, 2021
“It it will do about 6,000,000,000 next year in revenue.”
Oct 16, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“This thing, six to twelve months of the IPO, is going to pull a Tesla. And that is it's not going to be it's not only going to be the most valuable hotel company in the world. It's going to be worth more than in the next three or four combined.”
Oct 16, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“I think Airbnb could do $6,000,000,000 next year, be profitable, trade at 20 to 25,000,000,000 and be worth $100 to $150,000,000,000”
Oct 16, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 16, 2021 (inferred)
“I think Airbnb could do $6,000,000,000 next year, be profitable, trade at 20 to 25,000,000,000 and be worth $100 to $150,000,000,000”
Oct 16, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“I think Airbnb could do $6,000,000,000 next year, be profitable, trade at 20 to 25,000,000,000 and be worth $100 to $150,000,000,000”
Oct 16, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“The most exciting IPO or the most exciting, I don't even call it public offering of 2021 is gonna be Amazon spinning AWS.”
Oct 9, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
Only if: Amazon spins off AWS so that it is no longer owned by Amazon
“And it'll it'll expand their market because companies like Walmart will consider working with AWS if it's not owned by Amazon.”
Oct 9, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2022 (inferred)
“I just think AW... I've said one of my predictions is 2025, the most valuable company in the world is AWS.”
Oct 9, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
Only if: Joe Biden wins the 2020 U.S. presidential election
“I think my prediction is, based on the calls I've received, that as we get closer and a Biden victory looks more likely, I think that Palantir stock is going to crash.”
Oct 2, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Mar 1, 2021 (inferred)
“A super impressive opportunity for an impressive activist here is gonna show up at Disney. There's too much opportunity. There's too many fallow assets.”
Oct 2, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 2, 2021 (inferred)
“I think and by the way, think there's more than 50% likelihood this deal never closed”
Sep 25, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Sep 25, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: If Walmart partners with TikTok to gather signal liquidity around consumer categories (e.g., starting with grocery)
“I think Walmart and TikTok could potentially, potentially introduce this new field that I'm calling ACOM, and that's algorithmic commerce.”
Sep 25, 2020 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Sep 25, 2021 (inferred)
“So anyway, Shopify, a dramatic acquisition no one is expecting by the end of the year.”
Sep 20, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“They announced something, and it never closes. Yeah. Never closes.”
Sep 20, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Mar 20, 2021 (inferred)
“I wonder if CFIUS is gonna reject this deal.”
Sep 18, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 18, 2020 (inferred)
“I think the markets get it right, similar to the fire door that got slammed shut on WeWork. I fire think door is going to slam shut again on Palantir.”
Sep 18, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 18, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: Palantir's direct listing is bid up by retail (Robinhood) traders
“If Palantir gets out and Robinhood traders just go, Oh, it's Palantir. It's got that weirdo Peter Thiel, who's also a crazy genius in terms of investor, and it gets bit up by kids in their basement, think that's going to be another signal that we are in for a massive scary correction.”
Sep 18, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Mar 18, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: The markets behave rationally ('do what they're supposed to do')
“If the markets do what they're supposed to do, I think the markets are going to get a taste of this thing and throw up all over the table and say, No, not here.”
Sep 18, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 18, 2020 (inferred)
“It's to up and its supposed to do a direct listing anytime. Supposed to do a direct listing, I think, the next thirty days.”
Sep 18, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 18, 2020
“Trillions of dollars in shareholder value being moved to the home. Connected Devices, Peloton, or Sonos acquired by the end of the year?”
Sep 13, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
Only if: Peloton is acquired by another company
“The really... The obvious acquirer for Peloton would be Apple.”
Sep 13, 2020 · M&A · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“you're going to see a bunch of companies leak a rumor that they're being acquired or they're in talks to acquire TikTok.”
Sep 8, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020
“So you're going to see a bunch of there's going to be a half a dozen companies quote unquote in serious talks to acquire TikTok.”
Sep 8, 2020 · M&A · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2020
“TikTok will not be acquired by an American firm.”
Sep 8, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 20, 2021 (inferred)
“Apple's gonna be in the connected fitness space.”
Sep 4, 2020 · Tech · Checkable · by Sep 4, 2021 (inferred)
“So Shopify, my prediction is Shopify and or Zoom are going to make just these titanic acquisitions.”
Sep 4, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Sep 4, 2021 (inferred)
“we're gonna lose I think 25,000 stores this year.”
Sep 4, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“It's going to come back, but it's not gonna return to the levels we were at.”
Sep 4, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 4, 2022 (inferred)
“And as a function of that extending the deadline on banning Tik Tok when he realizes that he doesn't control the studio audience here and he's made another stupid strategic move.”
Aug 30, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020 (inferred)
“Nothing happens. It's a lot of fun for the media, but basically, they just wait and and, there's no acquisition, and we wait till the election, and then we see what happens.”
Aug 30, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020
“China takes a medium sized company, not Apple, and says, okay. Not... I'm not even Starbucks. We've decided you need to sell to a Chinese company.”
Aug 30, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Aug 30, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: The courts decide to break up Google after an antitrust case against Google is filed and decided
“But but here's the prediction, they will announce their search engine, which will be tested, ready to go clear, they've been working on it for a long time, the day that the courts make the decision to break up Google after the antitrust case is filed.”
Aug 24, 2020 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Aug 24, 2023 (inferred)
“So somewhere between eight and eleven million households are about to receive a letter in the next seven to fourteen days.”
Jul 31, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Aug 14, 2020
“The thing that'll stay the same is the tuition.”
Jul 31, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Sep 30, 2020 (inferred)
“Monday is a big day for representative Val Butler, Demings, Florida's 10th District. She's being considered, as you know, as a potential Veep, and this is kinda... This is probably gonna be the first time that America is sort of introduced to her.”
Jul 24, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 27, 2020
“But I think you're gonna see, some very interesting m and a activity over the next six to twelve months from Tesla as an acquirer.”
Jul 24, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 24, 2021
“He might actually might keep a low profile because of this ethics investigation.”
Jul 24, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 27, 2020
“Yeah. $15 an hour. We're pleased to announce we've raised... We didn't wait for the federal government. We've raised our minimum wage to $15 an hour. We are hiring more people than any firm in history through this period. He'll position himself as the great jobs creator.”
Jul 24, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 27, 2020
“He's very he'll laugh two or three times, and that'll that'll be the moment.”
Jul 24, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 27, 2020
“China wrap China. Himself in the American flag and say those those those dangerous AI weaponized Chinese are coming for us, and we're your national champion to defend you.”
Jul 24, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Jul 27, 2020
“He'll just stay out of the way. I'm a likable guy that likes Auburn football.”
Jul 24, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 27, 2020
“For Bezos, if bay... For for for Zuckerberg, Bezos, and then what I'll call the other two, it'll be fire, fellatio, stay the fuck out of the way. It'll be... They'll go after they'll go after Zuckerberg. They'll get their knee pads out for Bezos, and the other two guys will say, just just don't say anything. Let those guys go at it. We're just here to look nice.”
Jul 24, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 27, 2020
Only if: TikTok spins off and goes public
“So I think this was part of the reason that he was able, he's gonna be probably the newest minted CEO billionaire when they go public.”
Jul 17, 2020 · Media · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 17, 2021 (inferred)
“I think Netflix goes over at, in after hours today, breaches $600 a share, and becomes more valuable than Comcast, AT and T, and Disney.”
Jul 17, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 16, 2020
“I think Netflix goes over at, in after hours today, breaches $600 a share, and becomes more valuable than Comcast, AT and T, and Disney.”
Jul 17, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 16, 2020
“This notion that, forty eight hours before the actual voting booths open, we will not allow political ads.”
Jul 14, 2020 · Tech · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020 (inferred)
“If you cancel it the last seventy two hours or withhold it, you probably don't lose any revenue because if you give all your advertisers a heads up that that that the windows close for advertising seventy two hours before, you know, call it October 31, they lose no revenue.”
Jul 14, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2020 (inferred)
“We're gonna find out that the amount of funding or bailout money that well funded venture backed and PE backed startups is going to be just frightening. And it's gonna be, I think, one of the scandals coming out of this.”
Jul 10, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 10, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: The Trump administration's ruling forcing international students to leave if they take only online courses stands (is not overturned or reversed).
“if this Trump ruling around not allowing or forcing international students to go home stands, you could have recessions or deep... Deeper recessions in almost every, college town in America.”
Jul 10, 2020 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 10, 2021 (inferred)
“I think there's gonna be a ton of articles listing all the people who took PPP money who, quite frankly, just didn't need it.”
Jul 10, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Jul 10, 2021 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna find out over time that Instagram has been the direct cause and also the concerted effort of the folks at Instagram to make it addictive has resulted in a lot of the the skyrocketing levels of self harm and suicide among teen girls.”
Jun 19, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 19, 2021 (inferred)
“I think we have the same unfortunate forces at play here with online trading.”
Jun 19, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Jun 19, 2021 (inferred)
“My prediction is I think these online trading apps are gonna be kind of the new”
Jun 19, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Jun 19, 2021 (inferred)
“I think and I'm hoping assuming I can get stock at a reasonable rate. I think the IPO of lemonade might be the best performing stock of the quarter or it's registered the biggest pop.”
Jun 19, 2020 · Markets · Either/or · Checkable · by Sep 30, 2020
“In the next sixty days, there is a frightening declaration of border skirmish that's gonna turn out to all all out war. Either Apple is gonna take advantage of their access to the consumer and the fact that they own the rails and introduce a more a more direct competitor to Google. Because right now, they make about 6 or $7,000,000,000 in free cash flow by having Google be their default search. Yeah. They could buy DuckDuckGo and start offering their own search.”
Jun 12, 2020 · Tech · Checkable · by Aug 11, 2020
Only if: Twitter does not quickly move to offer a paid subscription service targeting wealthier users
“Or you could see if Twitter doesn't bust a move quickly and take advantage of their opportunity to go after basically wealthier blue state cohorts and offer a subscription service, I think the opportunity is for LinkedIn to start a microblogging platform that is more clean, more pure, more... Starts professional, but moves to media.”
Jun 12, 2020 · Tech · Conditional · Checkable · by Aug 11, 2020
Only if: Twitter moves to a subscription model and retains 50 to 60 percent of its current revenues after an initial short-term revenue decline
“Even if they have a reduction in revenues, which they will in the short term, if they could hold on to 50 to 60% of their revenues, they would have a much higher market valuation.”
Jun 12, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 12, 2021 (inferred)
“I mean, I think there will be attempts to eat away at 02:30 and there are a few other attempts right now and people have talked about other ways to sort of use the FAFSA playbook on 02:30. So I think it's very, very likely that we'll see attempts to eat away at 02:30 whether or not they'll be successful.”
Jun 9, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jun 9, 2021
“I think Killer Mike's statement in Atlanta talking about his background, his family he has a lot of family in law enforcement. And I just thought he struck to such a fantastic tone, and I think that statement is going to age really well.”
Jun 5, 2020 · Media · Unfalsifiable · by Jun 5, 2021 (inferred)
“The other statement that I think is going to age really well, and that I think a lot of, I'll call it, young men should take pause and really learn from, I thought one of the more interesting statements of this entire crisis was the twenty one seconds of silence from Justin Trudeau.”
Jun 5, 2020 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Jun 5, 2021 (inferred)
“The IPO class of the last half of twenty twenty in the first quarter of twenty twenty one will be the best performing IPO class of the last decade.”
Jun 5, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2021
“And as a result of the real economy getting hit hard, there are a lot of companies that were kind of lining up for direct listings or IPOs that aren't going to get out.”
Jun 5, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 5, 2021 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna have a vaccine later than everyone would like to think. I think these things are hard. I hope it happens really fast.”
May 29, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by May 29, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: No COVID-19 vaccine is developed and distributed by September 1, 2020
“But what I would what I would project is unless we have a vaccine by September 1, are we really gonna send 55 year olds into a room with 170 kids where the windows don't open? And then on week 12, send them to the four corners of the earth.”
May 29, 2020 · Other · Conditional · Checkable · by Sep 1, 2020
“And it's gonna be about a moment or a week of hand wringing whether we use it, and then we will use it.”
May 29, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 29, 2021 (inferred)
“But the vaccine's coming out of China.”
May 29, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by May 29, 2021 (inferred)
“I think this next class of companies that comes out is gonna be one of the best performing IPO classes of the last decade.”
May 26, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“Airbnb will be enormous.”
May 26, 2020 · M&A · Judgment call · by May 26, 2021 (inferred)
“their profits will be stronger. They've a lot of these companies have laid off 20%, 30% of their staff, their revenues are going to return, they'll hire back 5% of those people, and their profitability is going to skyrocket.”
May 26, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 26, 2021 (inferred)
“what is absolutely going to be the biggest boost to profitability amongst big tech over the next five years? This work from home movement.”
May 26, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 26, 2025
“It'll be used as an excuse to start cutting people's salaries.”
May 26, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by May 26, 2025
“I wouldn't be surprised if Shopify shows up and becomes a competitive bidder for JCP enney's or one of our Oh. One or more retailers?”
May 22, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Aug 20, 2020 (inferred)
“So in the next ninety days, we're gonna see a very interesting acquisition.”
May 22, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Aug 20, 2020
“Yeah, well your instincts are right on. I think there's gonna be news very soon that involves Yelp, BuzzFeed, potentially our employer Vox. These are smart people that right now don't have the scale.”
May 15, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Aug 13, 2020
Only if: If these second-tier digital media companies (e.g., Vox, BuzzFeed, Yelp, The Atlantic, Vice) merge
“Well, yeah, well, they get to hold on to the money, but I mean, it's not aspirational, but basically these are companies that can hold on, they merge, they hold on to 100%, maybe even they grow their revenues faster, and they cut their costs by 20 to 40%.”
May 15, 2020 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Aug 13, 2020 (inferred)
“The the bigger gonna get bigger.”
May 12, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 12, 2021
“The government, CCB, and the Fed are gonna continue to print money, which will sort of be... It will save a lot of big companies from facing the music.”
May 12, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 12, 2021
“I think the NASDAQ gets cut 30%.”
May 12, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 12, 2021
“We're gonna test new lows in terms of the markets.”
May 12, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 12, 2021
“Well, this is more about psychology than it is, any underlying fundamentals, but I think that you're gonna see Uber stock way up after hours because I don't think you announce an acquisition like this unless you're feeling your mojo.”
May 8, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 8, 2020
“But I think, and it's so dangerous to make these predictions, but I think that basically Uber is going to report that things have stabilized and have started to return or things are the light at the end of the tunnel has been illuminated for ride hailing.”
May 8, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 8, 2020
“We're gonna see just a raft of retail bankruptcy,”
May 5, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 5, 2021 (inferred)
“The gap could probably go out of business, which is is staggering to feel.”
May 5, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 5, 2021 (inferred)
“I don't wanna be a grave dancer and send stocks down, but most of the department stores, especially retail apparel.”
May 5, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 5, 2021 (inferred)
“Your Sephora's, your restoration hardwares are gonna be stronger coming out of this.”
May 5, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 5, 2021 (inferred)
“I think Quibi probably gets sold in the next six months, and it'll be a it'll be a mercy killing. It'll get sold for sold for a dollar to somebody.”
May 5, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2020
Only if: Amazon is broken up into separate companies
“it's gonna make it only that much more interesting when we break up that company, and Amazon Fulfillment becomes its own entity. That That company can end up being on its own worth one of the 10 most”
May 5, 2020 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 5, 2025 (inferred)
“They not only acquire AMC or iPic, they acquire Xbox handsets so they can... Or they require Roku.”
May 1, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by May 1, 2022 (inferred)
“within twelve to twenty four months, you and me or anybody else are going to be able to watch the next installment of Star Wars for $250 at home seven days before it comes out in the theaters.”
May 1, 2020 · Media · Checkable · by May 1, 2022
“We're gonna see big tech go from 24% of the S and P by the end of the year to 28 to 30”
May 1, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“as the market wakes up from its consensual hallucination and absolutely throws up and tests new lows in the next ninety days.”
May 1, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 30, 2020
“Sonos is gonna be acquired.”
May 1, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by May 1, 2021 (inferred)
“I think Zoom stock is going to get cut in half in the next one hundred and eighty days.”
Apr 28, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 25, 2020
“this is going to be the mother of all gap years across America and probably across Europe too, as people recognize that $68,000 tuition at a university is hard as a jagged little pill to swallow that's been washed down by certification and a four year experience.”
Apr 28, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“I think that PPP is going to end up being the real or one of the real scandals of this.”
Apr 24, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2021 (inferred)
“my second prediction is that the Indian market is going to outperform almost every market over the next nine months because there's gonna be a frenzy of activity and also scrutiny.”
Apr 24, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Jan 24, 2021
“you're about to see gap years, taking a year off between You're high school and about to see that increase two to 3000% this fall.”
Apr 17, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 1, 2020
“My prediction is by the end of twenty twenty, Amazon is the first $2,000,000,000,000 market capitalization company.”
Apr 17, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“Their recovery will in fact be a V shape, whereas the recovery for every other media company is gonna look like a chair. It's going to be an L, and then it's going to go down again.”
Apr 17, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 17, 2021 (inferred)
“you're about to see a concerted multi prong attack on the World Health Organization from the current administration.”
Apr 10, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 10, 2020 (inferred)
“I think Fox News is gonna be sold under the financial strain of lawsuits.”
Mar 31, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2021 (inferred)
“I think one of the things we're gonna find has resulted in a higher incidence of infection across America when you test for income, when you test for region, when you test for age, it's gonna be viewership of Fox News.”
Mar 31, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2021 (inferred)
“And I believe courts will listen and entertain the notion that it has been that it has been absolutely damaging to national health.”
Mar 31, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2021 (inferred)
“I think what happened to the cigarette companies in the eighties is about to happen to News Corp, and that's my fail.”
Mar 31, 2020 · Media · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2021 (inferred)
“I think they're gonna come under tremendous legal scrutiny is Liberty University in Kentucky who has decided after...”
Mar 31, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Mar 31, 2021 (inferred)
“This is a head fake, Kara. We're gonna test new lows.”
Mar 27, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 26, 2020
“I think China come... The Chinese brand, I mean, to a certain extent, despite the fact that Trump is calling it the China virus, I think China's brand, if you will, actually comes out of this stronger because I think they have dealt with the situation in a very aggressive, effective means, and it looks like China is kind of almost returning to a certain level of normalcy.”
Mar 20, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Sep 20, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: The curve of new coronavirus infections in Italy begins to flatten
“I think if and when that curve begins... Of new infections begins to flatten in Italy, we're going to have a tremendous surge of optimism and relief,”
Mar 20, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 20, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: The curve of new coronavirus infections in Italy does not flatten and continues to worsen
“or if it doesn't and it continues to get worse, it's also going to really take a toll on our psyche.”
Mar 20, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 20, 2020 (inferred)
“I think this might be the starting point or the starting gun for the disruption in education and healthcare that everyone's been waiting”
Mar 13, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Mar 13, 2021 (inferred)
“I think this might be the starting point or the starting gun for the disruption in education and healthcare that everyone's been waiting”
Mar 13, 2020 · Other · Judgment call · by Mar 13, 2021 (inferred)
“The only prediction I'll have around that, I don't know, she's not gonna endorse Sanders because I think these people are all very power hungry.”
Mar 6, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Jun 1, 2020 (inferred)
“I think she's gonna go with the winner right now. Joe has so much momentum.”
Mar 6, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Jun 1, 2020 (inferred)
“Twitter was gonna come to an agreement with activist investors and give up board seats within ten days or three days or something within the next seven days and within thirty days now it's twenty seven days.”
Mar 6, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Apr 2, 2020
“within thirty days now it's twenty seven days. The part time CEO from Africa is going to step down.”
Mar 6, 2020 · Tech · Checkable · by Apr 2, 2020
Only if: Elliott Management (the activist investor) obtains three seats on Twitter's board.
“No we'll be he's done. If they get three seats, Jack Dorsey doesn't want to show up to a board meeting that there's three new board members based on one thing and that is that the CEO should leave.”
Mar 6, 2020 · Tech · Conditional · Checkable · by Apr 2, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: More than one million people are diagnosed with coronavirus in the United States
“If over a million people are diagnosed with the coronavirus in The US, and I'm praying that doesn't happen, Nikki Haley is gonna be vice president.”
Feb 28, 2020 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020 (inferred)
“Pence is being set up as a fall guy.”
Feb 28, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“You're about to see you're about to see video footage of Bernie Sanders Mhmm. Talking about how much he loves Russia and very very sketchy socialist leaders in Latin America. All the scrutiny that everyone has been scared of around Bernie is about to come full force at him in the next in the next seven days.”
Feb 21, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Feb 28, 2020
“I think Zoom, which is already up 20% in the last nine days Oh, is what's probably... It's at a 107. I think it goes to one forty or one fifty.”
Feb 21, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by May 21, 2020 (inferred)
“my win is India and The United Kingdom respectively have, looks like they're gonna pass legislation where India is gonna demand that Facebook cooperate with the government, which is means that they're saying you can't encrypt your backbone.”
Feb 14, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Feb 14, 2021 (inferred)
“remember when I predicted several months ago that Facebook would be banned from a country? I think Facebook is gonna be banned from India.”
Feb 14, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Feb 14, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Bernie Sanders becomes the Democratic presidential nominee and faces Donald Trump in the 2020 general election
“But it is all falling into place for him because Bernie is way ahead in the Democratic and the poll. And Democrats are gonna realize that if we're to end up being Sanders versus Trump effectively the entire election would be cast by the Republicans effectively as socialism versus capitalism and capitalism would win.”
Feb 14, 2020 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020 (inferred)
“And you're gonna see Elizabeth Warren radically go on the attack against Trump personally, which is her raising her hand to be the vice president, the attack dog for whoever”
Feb 14, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Aug 1, 2020 (inferred)
“On a GAAP basis, on a GAAP basis, I will drive an Uber for a day, which I, isn't a big deal, I've always thought about doing that, it'd be kind of interesting. I'll make a bet, not that Dara Khasushahi wants to make a bet with me. On a GAAP basis, there's no way this company is profitable”
Feb 11, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 11, 2021 (inferred)
“We said our prediction was it would be single digits by March 1. It's gonna be single digits probably by the end of the day.”
Feb 11, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 11, 2020
“I think in the next two to five years, Tesla launches a coin.”
Feb 7, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 7, 2025
Only if: Tesla launches its own coin that grants holders benefits such as priority access to upcoming products
“if Tesla launched a coin and every coin gave you the opportunity to be first in line for their upcoming products and created a currency, if you will, which is when... Just when two people agree that a certain Fiat vehicle has value, the Tesla coin could go after the monopoly that is now controlled by Bitcoin.”
Feb 7, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Feb 7, 2025 (inferred)
“I think it's gonna play... I think Bloomberg's gonna be the winner in the sense that no dominant victor's gonna come out.”
Feb 4, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Feb 4, 2020 (inferred)
“And I think all of a sudden everyone's going to start talking about Bloomberg as a viable candidate.”
Feb 4, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 3, 2020 (inferred)
“And I'm biased, but there's I think Mayor Pete is going to do well.”
Feb 4, 2020 · Politics · Checkable · by Feb 4, 2020 (inferred)
“Bernie's got momentum. He does.”
Feb 4, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 3, 2020 (inferred)
“Uber Eats is no more.”
Jan 31, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 31, 2021 (inferred)
“So I don't think they double down. I think they get out.”
Jan 31, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 31, 2021 (inferred)
“So making some stock next week is earnings. We're gonna see Uber shit the bed its stock off five to 10% within forty eight hours of their earnings release.”
Jan 24, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 10, 2020 (inferred)
“And we're gonna see Facebook announce monster earnings at an all time high off the back of Instagram commerce.”
Jan 24, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 1, 2020 (inferred)
“They will begin to downplay Uber Eats as they will either exit that business or sell it to Grubhub as it's, it makes ride hailing look like a good business and ride hailing is a shitty business.”
Jan 24, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Jan 24, 2021 (inferred)
“I think this will be seen as the equivalent of an individual running towards the end zone and getting so excited that they spike the ball on the three yard line, it becomes a fumble. I think we're going to find as analysts and academics dig into this actual trade deal, that we are no better off than we were before.”
Jan 17, 2020 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 17, 2021 (inferred)
“Twitter invites an activist or is acquired,”
Jan 17, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“But I still think that company FedEx likely gets acquired.”
Jan 17, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“Hulu is gonna go away.”
Jan 17, 2020 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“We're gonna see a basket of security stocks skyrocket as cyber attacks become more brazen based on the cloud cover of Iran.”
Jan 17, 2020 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“You're going to see oh, Apple goes up 20 to 30% in the next six months on the back of their announcement around a recurring revenue bundle, which they are lining up all the assets to do.”
Jan 17, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2020
“Roku is a key component in going vertical. So they will either acquire a content company or be acquired by a content company. The likely candidate is Disney.”
Jan 17, 2020 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“Spotify is declining at the hands of a monopoly. Monopoly is Apple and Amazon, so they'll soon decide to sell.”
Jan 17, 2020 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2020 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna find that there was a high level, the most successful spy of the last thirty years is an Iranian agent who convinced the Bush administration to take out Iraq such that Iran could be the most powerful force in the region. And then twenty years later convinced the government to kill Soleimani in Baghdad such that they could get the US military out of Iraq. I think the most successful spy in the history of the Western world is an Iranian agent who is currently at the highest levels of the US government.”
Jan 17, 2020 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Jan 17, 2021 (inferred)
“I think what you're going to see is there are massive inbound attacks, cyber attacks on The US and attempts to hack different databases or different kind of digital reservoirs, if you were, digital caches in The US. And I think you're about to see just an explosion in cyber attacks and hacks.”
Jan 10, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 10, 2020
“which has the double negative of I think it's going to embolden a lot of other foreign governments to step up and become more brazen in their attacks on The US.”
Jan 10, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 10, 2020
“The result is there's gonna be a couple attacks that will work, that will get a lot of press,”
Jan 10, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 10, 2020
“you're gonna see the stocks take a basket of Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks, and Cloudflare, none of which I have a position in. They're gonna be up 20 to 30% this year as these cyber attacks committed by governments and bad actors that are emboldened by our shit for brains catastrophic geopolitical decision called the White House. And you're gonna see the stocks of cybersecurity companies go up 20 to 30% in the next six to nine”
Jan 10, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 10, 2020
“Most people think it's gonna be the Apple Watch, I think it's gonna be Alexa.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
“we're gonna find that the reason Amazon is becoming HIPAA compliant is they're about to start offering medical services and medical insurance at a lower price.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
“Think Jeff Bezos is gonna be the first trillionaire on the back of Amazon's move into healthcare.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
Only if: Amazon starts announcing basic health insurance and basic medical services
“Amazon will be the first $2,000,000,000,000 company once they start announcing basic health insurance and kind of basic medical services.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
“my prediction for 2020 that we're gonna see another 20% or 30% increase in the market capitalization of Big Tech.”
Dec 27, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“the market might crash, but they'll outperform any those four companies or five companies will outperform every other sector.”
Dec 27, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“I just don't see that changing for the next one or two years. I think these companies are gonna continue.”
Dec 27, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 27, 2021
Only if: AWS is spun off from Amazon into a separate, independently traded company.
“the most valuable company in the world is AWS once it's spun.”
Dec 27, 2019 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 27, 2024 (inferred)
“So my prediction is that FedEx is acquired in two thousand and twenty or twenty one, that effectively you have an incredible company with incredible assets that's now been featured and is becoming part of the stack.”
Dec 20, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2021
“So first off, FedEx is gonna... Its value is gonna get cut in half.”
Dec 20, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 20, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: Roku's market value keeps growing
“I don't know who Roku will be acquired by, but actually my prediction is Roku, if their value keeps growing, is gonna is gonna be a man bites dog and acquire an old economy or an old media company because they're becoming so valuable or they'll be acquired.”
Dec 20, 2019 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 20, 2020 (inferred)
“But something is gonna happen with FedEx in the next twelve months. First thing is its value is gonna decline, and they're either gonna need to go out and make a Bet the Ranch acquisition, or they will be acquired.”
Dec 20, 2019 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 20, 2020
“I think we're gonna hear about Apple in China. Soon as the headline news and the noise around the tariffs, if at some point it goes away, The only big tech company that's been able to make any real or sustain inroads in China has been Apple because of its luxury status. But also, I what... I think Apple in China is gonna come up a lot. Because I wonder what has gone on in terms of their supply chain, in terms of privacy. And Tim toes a pretty, I don't wanna call it indignant, but a pretty righteous tone around his activities and his use it to his advantage. And I wonder what kind of deal with China he has struck. And I think we're gonna start hearing more uncomfortable things about what China has had to do to stay relevant and sell as many iPhones. I think there's no free lunch over there. Think a company that big is probably... We're gonna hear Apple and China in the news more in 2020. And it's not gonna be good for Apple.”
Dec 17, 2019 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020
“I think in 2020, we're gonna start hearing a lot more about the effects of pornography on young men.”
Dec 13, 2019 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020
“I think it's gonna impact marriages, household formation,”
Dec 13, 2019 · Other · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“I think, I think the odds on favor right now for the Democratic, ticket and the vice president role is, senator Kamala Harris.”
Dec 6, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2020 (inferred)
“Twitter goes below $25 a share”
Dec 3, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“an activist steps in.”
Dec 3, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“And I think over the next twelve months, you're gonna see Disney probably grab some market capitalization from Netflix.”
Nov 29, 2019 · Media · Judgment call · by Nov 29, 2020
“But Netflix is either... Netflix at some point in the next twenty four months will be vertical either through being acquired or through an acquisition”
Nov 29, 2019 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Nov 29, 2021
“My prediction. So a name you're gonna hear more about in 2020, and it's gonna about to become a player in the ecosystem between the intersection of tech and the streaming wars, which I'm just fascinated right now, is Roku.”
Nov 22, 2019 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020
“They could get acquired by Netflix Netflix. Or potentially Disney that need distribution, or they, if their stock keeps going up, will use their currency to go acquire a content company. But Roku is gonna be in the news either as a as a seminal acquirer or acquisition”
Nov 22, 2019 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
“So let's be clear. Let's double down on that. The surprise winner the winner of Iowa is gonna be Mayor Pete.”
Nov 15, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Feb 3, 2020 (inferred)
“Uber's gotten taken to the woodshed, massively overvalued, the lockup came off, it's gotten hammered, it's still gonna continue to go down.”
Nov 8, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by May 8, 2020 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna see... We've talked about this. Private market unicorns cut by 30 to 60% and public market stuff is already getting taken to the woodshed.”
Nov 8, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 8, 2020 (inferred)
“my prediction is about WeWork and that is what Afghanistan and Vietnam were to Russia and The United States, WeWork is gonna be to SoftBank. And that is that they've thrown good money after bad. And my anecdotal evidence that this thing can't get... They can pull the nose up on this thing and it will be a bankruptcy or some sort of restructuring probably by q four twenty twenty or q two twenty twenty one”
Nov 8, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2021
“100%. Okay. Cover bankruptcy. That's Q four q four next year, q one or q two of twenty twenty one.”
Nov 8, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2021
“Well, Uber doesn't go to zero. There's real value there. But I think my prediction is I think Uber gets cut 20% to 40% in the next thirty, sixty days as the artificially low float goes away and the lockup comes off.”
Nov 1, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Jan 1, 2020
“And people realize this company is not worth more than Ford. It's a nice company worth 10,000,000,000 to $20,000,000,000 not $55,000,000,000”
Nov 1, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 1, 2020 (inferred)
“Impossible has lined up its IPO. That's not going to happen.”
Nov 1, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Nov 1, 2020 (inferred)
“You have, you have 50 points of share between, Bernie Sanders and, Joe Biden. And I think that that is all gonna go somewhere else in the next sixty days.”
Oct 25, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 24, 2019
“But I think mayor Pete is about to surge”
Oct 25, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 24, 2019 (inferred)
“We're gonna have a new entrant. I mean, Hillary Clinton's talking about getting back in the race, mayor Bloomberg or an unknown.”
Oct 25, 2019 · Politics · Either/or · Checkable · by Nov 24, 2019 (inferred)
“Prediction my prediction is the the biggest winner over the next thirty days is gonna be Mayor Pete.”
Oct 25, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 24, 2019
“So we should revisit that because I think he's gonna give up a lot of share.”
Oct 25, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 24, 2019 (inferred)
“But I just don't see how this thing doesn't involve a bankruptcy.”
Oct 18, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 18, 2020 (inferred)
“And the other prediction is there's just gonna be such a reevaluation of venture growth.”
Oct 18, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 18, 2020 (inferred)
“Anyways, I thought it was gonna be work. No, now I think it's gonna be SoftBank.”
Oct 11, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“I think that SoftBank's incredible poor judgment around we perhaps means that they've demonstrated poor judgment around other investments. So I'm looking at their other real estate investments, specifically OYO, Compass Failed to Open Door.”
Oct 11, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 11, 2020 (inferred)
“Every unicorn worth over $1,000,000,000 now that's a private company, and I think we can add them up and I'll do this and I'll publish it on my blog, is gonna be cut in half next year.”
Oct 11, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“In the next sixty days, we have a bankruptcy at WE.”
Oct 4, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 3, 2019
“Peloton is probably gonna get pelted, kind of the... It's a great company. It's it's wildly overvalued.”
Oct 4, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 4, 2020 (inferred)
“That thing's off that thing's off 50 to 80% in the next twenty four months because they've gotta maintain the growth story,”
Oct 4, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 4, 2021
“I think it's gonna be off 10 to 30% in the next six months and hold.”
Sep 27, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Mar 27, 2020
“Yeah, people are gonna be a little bit more measured. It's gonna be a little bit more PG-thirteen, and we'll see a small check back, but they won't collapse the way we saw we collapse.”
Sep 27, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Mar 27, 2020
“there's going to be a really big story coming down the pike around the impact of the blast zone of SoftBank. That's the big story here is the Vision Fund. I think the Vision Fund could be on the precipice of an implosion that makes the WeWork story look like, you know, look like an Easter Easter brunch.”
Sep 20, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 20, 2020 (inferred)
“The biggest IPO or the most successful IPO of 2020 is gonna be Airbnb.”
Sep 13, 2019 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020
“Uber Uber, Lyft, Tesla, Beyond Meat, all down 20 to 80% in 2020.”
Sep 13, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“Think the immunities are kicking in. I think where the markets are prone to fits of sanity and rationality or, you know, rational thinking is starting to seep in, and I don't think WeWork is gonna get public. And it's gonna be... It's... I think it's I think it's the market's finally saying enough. So my prediction is WeWork, despite cutting their valuation in half today, doesn't get out.”
Sep 6, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Sep 6, 2020 (inferred)
“We're going to see the resale market secondhand clothing be bigger than fast fashion in 2028.”
Aug 30, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2028
“Is within the next six to twelve months, Spotify comes out with a piece of hardware for streaming for music.”
Aug 23, 2019 · Tech · Checkable · by Aug 23, 2020
“I think the story of the year and maybe even the story of the next several years is gonna be Epstein's apparent suicide.”
Aug 16, 2019 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“So, my prediction is, we talked about Beyond Meat getting cut in half, and I got a bunch of crap on Twitter for always being Debbie So, I think RealReal is gonna do really well this year.”
Aug 9, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“But yeah, I like your prediction more. Think that I think the market got wrong was off 5% after the earnings call because let's be honest, this bundling and recurring revenue bundles are just extraordinarily expensive, but I agree with you. I think it's gonna come back.”
Aug 9, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Aug 9, 2020 (inferred)
“I gave you my prediction. Beyond Meat is cut in half in the next twelve months. This time.”
Aug 2, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Aug 2, 2020
“Look. I think it's a fascinating category. It's gonna wake up Tyson and all these other agra industrial complex from there, what I'll call Hormel. Plant based, slumber this way... Same way Tesla has woken up Germans and Americans from their electric slumber.”
Aug 2, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Aug 2, 2020 (inferred)
“by the end of two thousand nineteen, we're gonna see a spin, a large spin of a company that will be one of the 20, if not one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world.”
Jul 26, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019
“Doesn't matter. Everyone's gonna see it. Anyone with kids is gonna go see anything that says Disney on it. And if you don't see it in the theaters, you're gonna see it at home. And your kids immediately... Just look at the way your kids respond to the graphics and the coloring and the visual identity that connotes Disney or Pixar, it means that you watch it. It could get zero stars or 0% on Rotten Tomatoes. And at some point, they're gonna monetize it because their brand is so consistently stands for outstanding quality,”
Jul 19, 2019 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“I think the stock goes to continues is up another 20% by the end of the year.”
Jul 19, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019
“I think that the stock that is gonna continue to rise is Zoom. I think Zoom has got all the the network effects, the explosive growth, and the recurring revenue that's required to become kind of a $2,300,000,000,000 company.”
Jul 19, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jul 19, 2020 (inferred)
“So this was going to happen, it's only going to get worse, and it's a huge disappointment that we're literally fracturing probably the greatest alliance in the history of mankind,”
Jul 12, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jul 12, 2020 (inferred)
“It's difficult. It's difficult to, it could be anything. It could be Russia deciding to, like, quote unquote, do a soft invasion of one of their neighbors. It could be another missile being launched by North Korea, another test. It could be the Iranians spinning up their uranium again.”
Jul 12, 2019 · Politics · Either/or · Checkable · by Aug 26, 2019
“It's gonna be La Croix. The sparkling water's gonna get its butt kicked by Bubly, a Pepsi brand,”
Jul 5, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Aug 4, 2019
“And I don't think that Joe Biden... The third term of Obama is gonna have a ton of appeal.”
Jul 5, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 5, 2020 (inferred)
“I think that their combined share of 50 or 60 points is gonna decline 20 or 30 points,”
Jul 5, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 5, 2020 (inferred)
“and we're gonna see a new crop of nominees or contenders emerge.”
Jul 5, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 5, 2020 (inferred)
“I'm very bullish on both Slack and Zoom. So look to them to perform well over the next twelve months.”
Jun 21, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 21, 2020
“I'm very bullish on both Slack and Zoom. So look to them to perform well over the next twelve months.”
Jun 21, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 21, 2020
“Uber and Lyft are still waiting for their massive, implosion. We're gonna lose the value of Ford Motor between, the the value destruction we're gonna see at Uber and Lyft over the next twelve months.”
Jun 21, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 21, 2020
“ride hailing is going to shed more value than the majority of the S and P 500 companies are worth in the next six to twelve months.”
Jun 14, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 14, 2020
Only if: Uber executes perfectly and takes full advantage of its assets (global brand, flywheel effect, Uber Eats)
“Uber could execute perfectly and take advantage of all their great assets and be worth half what it's worth right now.”
Jun 14, 2019 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 14, 2020 (inferred)
“Lyft could literally go away.”
Jun 14, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 14, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: WhatsApp is spun off from Facebook as an independent company due to antitrust action
“These companies are going to skyrocket in value over the next six months because analysts are going to start recognizing that these companies... WhatsApp is going be an incredible company as an independent company.”
Jun 14, 2019 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jun 14, 2020 (inferred)
“I think if you were to buy all four of those stocks, I think they're up between 1020% in the next six months as the markets start to realize that spins are going to be amazing for shareholders.”
Jun 14, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 14, 2019
“I think it's within... I'm always early. I think it's within twelve months. Think it'll be within twelve months.”
Jun 14, 2019 · Tech · Checkable · by Jun 14, 2020
“Take Facebook, Google, and Amazon. You're about to see a 30 to $100,000,000,000 increase in market cap over the last... Next ninety days as analysts begin doing a hard serious analysis of a breakup and a sum of the parts analysis, which is actually greater in terms of valuation than they are now. So the market's got it wrong. Look at these stocks to go up somewhere between 512% over the next ninety days.”
Jun 7, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Sep 5, 2019
“So my prediction is a breakout show and this is a this is... You know, I love television. I have a new breakout show.”
May 31, 2019 · Media · Judgment call · by May 31, 2020 (inferred)
“Tesla. Sub $100 talks about acquire... Or going... Or actually going private. Mhmm. And it won't be a $420 a share.”
May 24, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by May 24, 2020 (inferred)
“Tesla. Sub $100 talks about acquire... Or going... Or actually going private. Mhmm. And it won't be a $420 a share.”
May 24, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 24, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: Tesla goes private
“And it won't be a $420 a share.”
May 24, 2019 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by May 24, 2020 (inferred)
Only if: Uber executes perfectly
“if this company executes perfectly, it might be worth 20, maybe $25,000,000,000, which by the way, is about 60% less than it's trading today.”
May 17, 2019 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 17, 2020 (inferred)
“You're talking about a loss probably in my view over the next six to twelve months between Lyft and Uber. A loss of... A destruction of 20 to $30,000,000,000 in shareholder value.”
May 17, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by May 17, 2020
“I think this all this all goes one direction, and that is you know who's going out of business is the Nasdaq and the NYSE.”
May 17, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by May 17, 2020 (inferred)
“my prediction around Uber in terms of the stock is gonna be meh. I think this thing is being perfectly manicured and measured to a small pop and that's about it and I think it'll hold steady.”
May 10, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 10, 2019 (inferred)
“This will be the Goldilocks IPO. It'll do what it's supposed to do. It'll get a a decent but not a crazy pop, nothing like Beyond Meat, and it'll actually hold.”
May 10, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 10, 2019 (inferred)
“I think Spotify is getting into acquisition territory.”
May 3, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by May 3, 2020 (inferred)
“And then the other company that I think there's a chance might get acquired before they go out is Slack.”
May 3, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 1, 2019 (inferred)
Only if: WeWork's IPO prices at a $45 billion valuation
“I mean, this literally is the pets.com of this era if this thing gets out at a $45,000,000,000 valuation.”
May 3, 2019 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 3, 2020 (inferred)
“his board is so clearly out to lunch that they don't realize the SEC is about to make this market manipulation exhibit b. This board is asleep at the switch and is gonna cost shareholders huge when it becomes clear there's no truth, there's no veracity of this statement, and the SEC is about to go gangster on this guy.”
Apr 26, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 26, 2020 (inferred)
“my big prediction is that by the end of this year, a Facebook executive is detained and arrested, and it's on foreign soil.”
Apr 26, 2019 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019
Only if: Mark Zuckerberg flies his plane over or near British airspace
“If I were Mark Zuckerberg, I would not be flying my my Gulfstream six fifty extended range plane over anywhere near British airspace because I think they will escort it down and put cuffs on the guy.”
Apr 26, 2019 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“I think when we look at 2019 in retrospect, all of the unicorns that have gone public will have lost more market cap than they've gained. I think that their IPO prices combined... Their their market cap combined will be greater on the day of their IPOs and will be twelve months on. I think the unicorn class is gonna lose in in '19.”
Apr 19, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
Only if: Facebook announces an initiative with Instagram that involves some sort of pins or boards
“But if Facebook announced an initiative with Instagram that involves some sort of pins or boards, I don't think Pinterest gets out.”
Apr 19, 2019 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 19, 2019 (inferred)
“Jaime Lann... The Lannister is going to kill Cersei. You heard it here, Kara.”
Apr 19, 2019 · Media · Checkable · by May 19, 2019 (inferred)
“my first prediction is that ageism and sexism is about to take serious hold in the Democratic primary field. Mhmm. We're about to see the poll numbers for Biden and Sanders plummet.”
Apr 12, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
Only if: A woman runs for U.S. president in the 2020 election and loses
“If a woman runs and loses Mhmm. You're not gonna have a female president for twenty years.”
Apr 12, 2019 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 12, 2039
“Ageism and sexism over the next thirty days. The front runners in thirty days are young white males from the Democratic Party.”
Apr 12, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by May 12, 2019
“Well, think Biden's done. Here's the thing. Every time we boot a president out of office after only four years, it's to really pivot much differently. And we're not going to replace one old guy with another old guy. We're just not going”
Apr 12, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 1, 2020 (inferred)
“I think Tesla is really about to come undone because going back to the... Going back to your conversation around talent, you know, the team of the best players wins, and every player is leaving Tesla. And despite the fact we think he's one of our new Jesus Christ, agency... Or excuse me. Greatness is accomplished in the agency of others, and all the others are leaving Tesla. And that's a very negative forward looking indicator.”
Apr 5, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 5, 2020 (inferred)
“So we predicted that Lyft would come out at $100. We were wrong. It came out at 90. And our prediction is within six months that it gets cut in half at least.”
Apr 5, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 5, 2019
“So prediction? Amazon stock up 50% on the back of the Jedi mind trick they're about to perform on the most inefficient, most disruptable industry in the world right now, and that is the $3,500,000,000,000 healthcare industry.”
Apr 5, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 5, 2020 (inferred)
“Lyft pops to 100. Supposedly coming out at $71.”
Mar 29, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Mar 29, 2019
“And then within a year, it's a broken IPO.”
Mar 29, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Mar 29, 2020
Only if: If Airbnb's IPO happens in 2019
“the one that is gonna be the gangster IPO of '19 if it happens and the one company that has network effects and will be one of the most valuable companies Airbnb.”
Mar 29, 2019 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
Only if: If Airbnb's IPO happens in 2019
“the one that is gonna be the gangster IPO of '19 if it happens and the one company that has network effects and will be one of the most valuable companies Airbnb.”
Mar 29, 2019 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“Well, my prediction is I think Beto is gonna jump out ahead in the polls.”
Mar 22, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“I think a white male is gonna be the Democratic nominee because I think deep down everyone is freaked out.”
Mar 22, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2020 (inferred)
“the stock's gonna pop.”
Mar 22, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Apr 30, 2019 (inferred)
“Yeah. Lip's gonna make it out first.”
Mar 22, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“So this is the year that Tesla absolutely implodes.”
Mar 15, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“So is the question, is Tesla going to fail or will Tesla change the world for the better? The answer is yes.”
Mar 15, 2019 · Tech · Unfalsifiable · by Mar 15, 2020 (inferred)
“the Times won't be sold.”
Mar 15, 2019 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 15, 2020 (inferred)
“Conde Nast will begin selling itself.”
Mar 15, 2019 · M&A · Checkable · by Mar 15, 2020 (inferred)
“I do believe that someone's gonna go to jail from big tech. I believe if think, okay, you believe someone is in fact gonna go to jail, because we know things will get worse, we know that more bad stuff will come out. And if someone is the fall guy, if it's a company or the fall company, I think most likely it would be Facebook.”
Mar 8, 2019 · Tech · Judgment call · by Mar 8, 2022 (inferred)
Only if: Someone from Facebook goes to jail
“The other thing I'm pretty sure of is it won't be Mark or Cheryl.”
Mar 8, 2019 · Tech · Conditional · Judgment call · by Mar 8, 2022 (inferred)
“My prediction is that the big tech platforms are going to start to embrace their roles as content moderators. Meaning that they're going to... On the upside, you have companies like Twitter that I think will actually start kicking more vitriolic, hateful, terrible, abusive people off its platform.”
Mar 1, 2019 · Tech · Judgment call · by Mar 1, 2020 (inferred)
“So, anyway, I think there's going to be... My prediction is that in the short term, there's gonna be more of an embrace of curated content from the big tech tech platforms.”
Mar 1, 2019 · Tech · Judgment call · by Sep 1, 2019 (inferred)
“Okay. So, in the next thirty to sixty days, a new candidate for president on the Democrat side announces and becomes the front runner or maybe the number two, and it's somebody that 95% of the American public has never heard of.”
Feb 15, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 16, 2019
“And my prediction, and I'll use this as my prediction, think he's gonna decide not to run.”
Feb 8, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2020 (inferred)
“The deceleration Okay. The decline, the death the death rattle of snap is about to resume.”
Feb 8, 2019 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“Gonna just rock it up in the next three months. Be clear, bad for the bad for our democracy, bad for the planet. But this is... This stock and this company have a supernova business model. I think it's up 13% today.”
Feb 1, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by May 1, 2019
“Look for Amazon Media Group to all of a sudden be the third player in the Facebook, Google duopoly.”
Feb 1, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 1, 2020 (inferred)
“Fastest growing media company in the world, over a billion dollars.”
Feb 1, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 1, 2020 (inferred)
“It won't happen, Kara. There's no way there's no way either party wants to go there again because I think if if Trump they test. If we went to another shutdown, people would just move to, okay. Let's vote them all out. And the one thing that scares all of them is the notion of not being reelected. So, no, the government won't be shut.”
Feb 1, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“Yeah. I think that... I think we're gonna hear that... Those two words, Southern District, a lot over the next twelve months.”
Feb 1, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Feb 1, 2020
“I think the government shutdown's over by the time you and I speak again.”
Jan 25, 2019 · Politics · Checkable · by Feb 1, 2019
“My sense is that shit's about to get real, that we're on the verge of either a, you know, a disaster or a national security breach that will be directly reverse engineered to the shutdown.”
Jan 25, 2019 · Politics · Either/or · Judgment call · by Mar 1, 2019 (inferred)
“Some sort of deal where both sides claim victory. It'll be the president, I wanna say blinking first or squinting first, he'll claim that he got what he wanted.”
Jan 25, 2019 · Politics · Judgment call · by Feb 1, 2019
Only if: Something bad happens on a national security level
“Anything bad happens in the next... The next time something really bad happens on a national security level, people are gonna immediately assign the shutdown to it. That is gonna be bad for both parties.”
Jan 25, 2019 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Mar 1, 2019 (inferred)
“I think it's also gonna be a rough year for Tesla, I know you love Elon Musk.”
Jan 25, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“the question is, will Tesla change the world or will they go out of business? And I think the answer is yes, but I think we're about to start the latter part of that.”
Jan 25, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“But my prediction is 'nineteen is going to be a very bad year for WeWork.”
Jan 18, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“I think WeWork is gonna be in the news for all the wrong reasons in 2000 and 2019.”
Jan 18, 2019 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“I think it's gonna become a big issue in 2019.”
Jan 18, 2019 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“think something else that's gonna get a lot of scrutiny is that these two class shareholder stocks, these two class shareholder stocks protect these managers.”
Jan 18, 2019 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“Yeah. It's coming. Alright. I think I think AWS, I think it'll be done prophylactically.”
Dec 28, 2018 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 28, 2019 (inferred)
Only if: Amazon spins off AWS into a separate company
“On the spin, it'll be one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world.”
Dec 28, 2018 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 28, 2019 (inferred)
“Well, I've already made that prediction. I think it's going a lot higher because I think all the headline news doesn't translate to a deceleration in business, and the company looks on most traditional metrics cheap.”
Dec 28, 2018 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 28, 2019 (inferred)
“Yeah. That's probably less likely, but I think you're going to see... Again, I think you're gonna see a spin among big tech, prophylaxically,”
Dec 28, 2018 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 28, 2019 (inferred)
“So I think every company that adds more than $510,000,000,000 in value in 2019, the fastest growing part of their business is going be a recurring revenue.”
Dec 28, 2018 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“I don't think that company ever gets public.”
Dec 28, 2018 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 28, 2019 (inferred)
“I think maybe one or two of those guys get out.”
Dec 28, 2018 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 28, 2019 (inferred)
“But I would argue that the center of all innovation and no company can create more than $10,000,000,000 in value in a year unless it's a bike ride from university and that we need a massive investment in universities.”
Dec 28, 2018 · Other · Unfalsifiable · by Dec 28, 2019 (inferred)
“But I think that's the big kind of optimistic or interesting business story of '19 is big tech going into health care.”
Dec 21, 2018 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“I think the next big write down is gonna be in twelve months. AT and T is gonna write down Time Warner's. Everyone realizes this handset and content peanut butter and chocolate combination was just a big thud.”
Dec 14, 2018 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 14, 2019
“I don't think they'll be broken up like that. Time Warner is an incredible... I mean there's some incredible assets.”
Dec 14, 2018 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 14, 2019 (inferred)
“It'd probably be acquired again by somebody.”
Dec 14, 2018 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 14, 2019 (inferred)
“Well, there's good news and bad news. It's already here. The problem is it's owned by Amazon. The next big innovation of technology is voice.”
Dec 14, 2018 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 14, 2019 (inferred)
“I think miss Amber will be gone within twelve months, but it'll be her idea.”
Dec 7, 2018 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 7, 2019
“I think she's gonna announce that she wants to go run a foundation or or talk about service or...”
Dec 7, 2018 · Tech · Either/or · Judgment call · by Dec 7, 2019 (inferred)
“I think that Amazon is gonna start making the kind of the business story of '19 and innovation is the movement of big tech into health care.”
Dec 7, 2018 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019
“So the company that I think is gonna go after health care and just scare the shit out of everybody when they start peeling off the most actuarially appealing households in America and insuring them, I think they're gonna go through the insurance store, is Amazon”
Dec 7, 2018 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“they'll offer over Alexa. They'll say, hey, Prime member. Would you be interested in exploring a way to cut your health care costs in half with Prime Plus insurance?”
Dec 7, 2018 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“I think you're gonna see two to three private company CEOs announce that they're exploring a run for president.”
Nov 23, 2018 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019 (inferred)
“So this is more macro, but I think the consumer world is gonna distill to a small number of what I call recurring revenue bundles.”
Nov 9, 2018 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 9, 2021 (inferred)
“It's gonna be a series of four or five small networks. One for your media, one for your apparel, one for your travel, one for your health.”
Nov 9, 2018 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 9, 2021 (inferred)
“Yeah. But think about how many places I could go. Airbnb... It's either gonna be Airbnb or Expedia or another... The Four Seasons is another kind of brand that could probably come up with a recurring revenue”
Nov 9, 2018 · Markets · Either/or · Judgment call · by Nov 9, 2021 (inferred)
Only if: Amazon spins off AWS into an independent company and it conducts an IPO
“2020, I've decided... I'm sorry. 2019, maybe by the end of twenty twenty, Amazon is gonna prophylactically spin AWS, which will be one of the 10 most valuable companies on the IPO on”
Nov 2, 2018 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“2020, I've decided... I'm sorry. 2019, maybe by the end of twenty twenty, Amazon is gonna prophylactically spin AWS, which will be one of the 10 most valuable companies on the IPO on”
Nov 2, 2018 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020
“I think he could be president even if he loses this election.”
Nov 2, 2018 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2028 (inferred)
“Yeah. But I think on Oculus, it basically said the jig is up. They realize virtual reality is stupid. Oculus will probably be closed down in the next twenty four months.”
Oct 26, 2018 · Tech · Checkable · by Oct 26, 2020
“I think they would use the stock to go buy a bunch of hotel and transportation companies?”
Oct 26, 2018 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 26, 2020 (inferred)
“The individual throwing out the first pitch of the opening Yeah. Game for the Washington Nationals 2019 season is Jeffrey Bezos as”
Oct 19, 2018 · Other · Checkable · by Apr 15, 2019 (inferred)
“Imminently, they're gonna announce that DC, the DC Metro Area, is the location of their HQ2, reflecting that this entire shit show circus HQ2 is nothing but a ruse.”
Oct 19, 2018 · Tech · Checkable · by Mar 31, 2019 (inferred)
“The dark horse is Miami because I”
Oct 19, 2018 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2019 (inferred)
“So my predictions is that Casper and or Away gets acquired in That's the next three to six interesting.”
Oct 12, 2018 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Apr 12, 2019
“Facebook. Yeah. Both in terms of usage, not only regulation, but in terms of the actual underlying performance of the company.”
Oct 12, 2018 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 12, 2019
“Stock gets cut in half from here, which which I think makes it, I don't know, 20 or 30,000,000,000 market cap.”
Oct 12, 2018 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 12, 2019 (inferred)
Only if: Tesla's stock price falls by about 50% from its October 12, 2018 level, cutting its market cap to roughly $20-30 billion
“Apple steps in and buys it.”
Oct 12, 2018 · M&A · Conditional · Checkable · by Oct 12, 2019 (inferred)
“Despite... Well, one, we've already made one, and that is by the end of 'nineteen, Snap is no longer an independent company.”
Sep 28, 2018 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2019
“I think Facebook is... I think the stock is remarkably undervalued. And to be clear, bad for America, bad for the planet, but I just think the stock is gonna scream when people realize that probably they're gonna get through this and they're gonna start posting just enormous numbers. It's gonna turn into apples two years ago.”
Sep 28, 2018 · Markets · Judgment call · by Sep 28, 2019 (inferred)
“He's is he's got... He clings to power like he makes an African dictator look charming. What what... How on earth does Mark Zuckerberg leave? Two classes of stock? How can he leave?”
Sep 28, 2018 · Tech · Checkable · by Sep 28, 2019 (inferred)