Pivot · Mar 20, 2020

Addressing the US economy (a note from Andrew Yang), data privacy in a public health emergency, and a listener question on the "great WFH-experiment”

Automatic transcript of the end of the episode, from 38:36. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

Scott Galloway · 38:36 Thing Yeah. Mister Smith. And I'm like, is that what school is like now in the sixth grade? But they're all really polite to each other. They were helping the teacher get his camera working right because the 12 year olds understand technology better than their teacher. It's more chaotic. The way I thought about it versus when I was in sixth grade, it's more chaotic, but it's more respectful and it's more kind of benign. Yeah. Interesting. Know, were quiet, but then we were like passing around, you know, notes saying what an idiot he was or whatever. These guys are much they're just much nicer, but maybe just chaos. Kara Swisher · 39:06 I haven't I haven't seen my kids doing the school thing yet, but they're... I'll be interested to watch because they're coming to stay with me. And so it'll be... I'll be I'll be interested to see how the homeschooling thing goes. I mean, I have one kid I think will be really good at it, the other one. Scott Galloway · 39:19 You know what? Speaking of kids, you know what? I I I like to find a thought that makes me feel much better in terms of behavior modification, constantly repeat that thought in my mind. And it's a what if thought, and that is this disease is very ageist, and it goes after the elderly in the weak. What if this was a similar, pathogen or pandemic that... And we've had them in the past, flus that have preyed on the young. If the age if the age toxicity or the age aggression here had been flipped, if you will, I think we'd have chaos. I would not... I mean, can you imagine? Can you imagine if the the the real point of solace, if you have kids, a real point of comfort is so far kids under the age of 21, and there's been some articles that have Kara Swisher · 40:02 come out. Although, there was a video that went viral of these kids from spring break in Florida acting Scott Galloway · 40:08 like issue. I'm talking about kids. Yeah. But I'm talking about Kara Swisher · 40:11 you. Agree agree with you. Although, let me just be clear. Let's make sure. If you get this, you will get this. There was a lot of statistics showing a lot of young people get it, including... There's a child that got... Just got it, a really young child. It will damage your lungs for the rest of your life. And so this is not something, you know, if you get in a bad way. So it's not like, oh, I'm fine. I'm young. You will not... It's... It will not be a good thing to get for anybody, including young people. And they may survive it, but they certainly will... There'll be damage done if if it goes badly. Anyway... But I agree with you. I agree. People would go crazy, if that was the case. In any case, we'll see how we do live with this as... And we'll see what... The after part will be the most interesting part. One more break, Scott. We're gonna take one more break today. We'll be back for predictions and some moments of optimism because we're gonna There Scott Galloway · 40:57 we go. Kara Swisher · 40:57 End this on a high note. Scott Galloway · 40:58 There we go. Galloway. [Ad break] — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 42:09 Okay, Scott. Clearly, everything is in flux, and that makes predictions much harder now. But, what are you looking at and expecting in the days and month to come? Is there any predictions you'd like to take back, like carnival? Or what what do you... What... Give me a good prediction for yourself. Scott Galloway · 42:23 Well, I... There's... If we're gonna if we're gonna... If I have the opportunity to take predictions back, we're gonna need a longer show. But Kara Swisher · 42:30 No. But, like Like, Scott Galloway · 42:31 to this. My... I I wouldn't say it's a prediction, but something I'm watching very closely is that there's a lot of good news coming out of Asia, and that is Singapore was able to basically cauterize this thing right away. South Korea demonstrated real competence and what I would call a a comedy of man. There was real cooperation there. China. I think China come... The Chinese brand, I mean, to a certain extent, despite the fact that Trump is calling it the China virus, I think China's brand, if you will, actually comes out of this stronger because I think they have dealt with the situation in a very aggressive, effective means, and it looks like China is kind of almost returning to a certain level of normalcy. The the data I'm tracking, and I think is gonna have real implications on the marketplace, especially the Dow, if you will, is I'm tracking the curve in new infections in Italy. Because Italy is, right now, I would almost say, kinda ground zero of the things that are wonderful about Western society Mhmm. But are dangerous as it relates to the spread. Yeah. That's personal personal freedoms, personal rights, lack of willingness to... Or unwillingness or refusal to socially distance. And I think if and when that curve begins... Of new infections begins to flatten in Italy, we're going to have a tremendous surge of optimism and relief, or if it doesn't and it continues to get worse, it's also going to really take a toll on our psyche. The data I'm watching right now, that to a certain extent kind of leads the, is the the frontier of what might happen in Western nations that value personal freedoms over, you know, are just more... Just have a different approach. Capitalist personal freedom's a little bit more expectant, a little bit more narcissistic, quite frankly. When you see those kids you were referencing in Fort Lauderdale, they seem to be quite expectant and narcissistic, thinking about, okay. It's not gonna happen to me, and it only it only affects older people. A certain lack of empathy. So I'm I'm watching I'm watching the data in Italy. I think that's gonna be I think that's gonna be very important. Kara Swisher · 44:37 If you want a great visualization, the New York Times has one called, you know, it's all which countries flatten the curve for coronavirus, and it shows, you know, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan doing that. And then they have a long thing at the end, what countries are on the curve, and it in... Is insane the the ones that go up and the ones that go down. Denmark has gone down. Certain countries have, but Japan is up and down. But all the... All those countries you're talking about are going up that you... That have much looser behavior patterns, I guess, Italy being the worst of them right now. But it's really interesting how how they're going up and down and up and down. And of course, there's gonna be a second range. And from what my brother tells me, there is a... There is always a second thing, but it's different. And then as more of the country becomes more immune to it or or or develops immunities. Yeah. Scott Galloway · 45:30 The herd the herd immunity. Kara Swisher · 45:32 Herd immunity. Whatever. Anyway, it's really... It is... It's true. You're right. Optimism will will will come back if if these numbers improve, but that all, of course, depends on us. So before we go, we ask listeners to send in some of the ways that you're staying positive during this time. We got this from Bruce Angeli. His daughter, Izzy, is at home from school in Washington DC right now. Oh, good. He plays the guitar, and she sings. — Predictions segment ends — Scott Galloway · 46:00 Wow. Okay, Kara. I just have one question. Yeah. What the fuck was that? Have we done totally PBS? What's next? A woman a woman who macrames for blind people? I mean, for god's Kara Swisher · 46:12 sakes, what the fuck was get back to the ugly world. [Ad break] Kara Swisher · 46:16 the ugliest? We have people Scott Galloway · 46:17 playing guitar. We're literally... We've turned... Well, all of sudden, we turned into public television. What's going on here? That's not how we roll. That's... Let's talk about Sheryl Sandberg being the worst thing to happen in the world. What's going on here? Where are we? We've been infected by we've been infected by melancholy and majesty. Kara Swisher · 46:35 Going to bring people Scott Galloway · 46:37 up. Sensitivity. Do you have a story of optimism? I have a story Kara Swisher · 46:40 of optimism. Tell you when this is over, we are going to lay waste to people. Don't worry. We'll get back to our normal ways. Scott Galloway · 46:45 No. Daddy's gonna lay waste. Daddy's gonna... Daddy's laying waste to a lot of tequila right now. Oh. Which, by the way, makes me feel a lot better. Makes me feel a lot better. Oh my god. Kara Swisher · 46:55 Starting drinking. Scott Galloway · 46:56 Hello, magic fire water. Kara Swisher · 46:58 I never drink. Scott Galloway · 46:59 Wherever the fucking tequila is, says the big dog. Oh my god. Kara Swisher · 47:04 I'm thinking of starting to drink and rage tweet. I think that's my goal for this week. Scott Galloway · 47:10 Rage tweet? I would enjoy that. I will retweet every rage tweet you put out Kara Swisher · 47:14 there. To I rage tweet. I'll tell you one last thing of this thing is how people respond to it. Jennifer Sr. From the New York Times did a really good column about her. She and her husband, and she reads everything and is, like, worried about everything. And her husband is like, I don't wanna hear any more of it. I'm gonna just, like, drink and just stare at the wall, but I don't wanna hear anymore. And they have this relationship where, like, why are you telling me this about what's happening in Singapore or wherever in Italy and this and that and terrible deaths. And literally that's how Amanda is like, so like, let me just tell you the latest statistics from the CDC. And I'm like, no, No. I'm gonna go over here and, like, rage tweet with George Conway, my Scott Galloway · 47:54 Oh my god, Carol. I have a group of fraternity brothers, eight guys that all think of themselves as alpha males, and we started a group text. And they are such a bunch of little bitches. They just cannot stop sending each other more and more horrific stories and panicking, and I'm like, Jesus Christ. Man, the fuck up. Mean, it just... There... It is just... I've stopped listening to it. Anyways, do you have a... I have a moment of optimism. Do you have one? Kara Swisher · 48:15 Alright. Go ahead. Yeah. Go ahead. And then you have to you have to say what we want people to do, because we do want moments. So go ahead. What's your moment of optimism? Go ahead. Scott Galloway · 48:21 So I was... I'm I'm... I've gotten... I've had the opportunity in in this... I'm... I can't wait for the tweets around my white privilege here. But where I am staying, I've met two of my heroes. The first is Bryan Cranston who won, best actor three years in a row for what is arguably the greatest original scripted television in history, breaking bad. But I also got to meet one of my heroes, a guy named Troy Aikman who, played football Of course. At UCLA. Kara Swisher · 48:47 Dallas Dallas Cowboys. Right? Scott Galloway · 48:49 That's right. And he and I graduated from UCLA the same year, and he was literally the best athlete at UCLA, and I was the... Literally the worst varsity athlete. I was the worst person on the crew team, which is kind of the least prestigious sport. So he was the best athlete at UCLA. I was the worst athlete. And you know what, Kara? We both ended up at the same place, and it made me feel good. And I was thinking I was thinking I was thinking. Okay. By the way, this guy, I saw this guy. He's exactly my age. He looks like he's a different species. He has all this beautiful blonde hair, and he's in amazing shape. I'm like, how can we be the same species? Anyways, but I was thinking that if you are right now, wherever you are, if you're not dependent upon a government check coming to you, if you're surrounded by people who love you and who you are able to take care of and make feel better, if you're in a if you're if you're in a place where you feel somewhat safe and you're unlike your grandparents, you're not being called to war, you're being called to sit on your couch. And again, most importantly, if you're in a position to express affection, whether it's digitally, you're on the same beach as Troy Aikman. I mean, we are... All of us are are are fortunate. Even if you're healthy, if you don't have underlying health conditions, and if you're surrounded by your family, you're on the same beach as Troy Aikman. Kara Swisher · 50:09 Yeah. Okay. You're not Troy Aikman. You're still not Scott Galloway · 50:14 I could have been. I could have been. Kara Swisher · 50:16 No. Mm-mm. No. You couldn't have Scott Galloway · 50:18 been. My Kara Swisher · 50:18 gosh. Slightly. Scott Galloway · 50:19 This guy is... He's specimen. The guy's my age. Yeah. He's 55. He looks like he's 28. Is. Alright. On the same page. Kara Swisher · 50:27 Is your moment Scott Galloway · 50:28 of optimism. Tequila. We're drinking the same tequila, Cara. Okay. Okay. You go ahead and play your fucking guitar then. That's my moment of that's my moment of optimism. Let Kara Swisher · 50:38 me just I rage sweet for pleasure. That's what I do. Scott Galloway · 50:41 You rage. Kara Swisher · 50:41 I have the best one. I did the bet... Oh, let me give you the last. Scott Galloway · 50:44 There's a way. Kara Swisher · 50:44 Moment of optimism. Scott Galloway · 50:45 Okay. Kara Swisher · 50:46 So you saw Kellyanne Conway was saying, you know, that that the... That's calling it, I'm I'm gonna repeat it because it was so awful. Kung flu, which one of the White House people said that, like, which is awful. Already, they're doing the Chinese virus thing because they're jackasses and then pretending it's not racist, or they don't mean it to be racist. Of course, they do. And they're trying to say, well, it's the Spanish flu. Whatever. They're doing it to... For... To cause racial resentment. And she was saying, I... We... Why would you think I'm racist? I'm married to someone who's Asian. And then proceeded to say my... Her husband, George Conway, clearly, has just wrote a piece... Devastating piece about how Trump's still the same giant asshole. And, there's something awry in their marriage. He... She was saying because she she can't hate Asians because she's married to them, which is kind of weird. Scott Galloway · 51:33 George Conway is Asian? Kara Swisher · 51:35 Well, he's Filipino. He's half Filipino. And and so he... So she said this, which I thought was just... So I tweeted something that said some of my best husbands are Asian, and I enjoyed that. Scott Galloway · 51:47 You like that. Right? You like that? Kara Swisher · 51:49 So happy and laughed and laughed and laughed. And I think George Conway liked it too. Scott Galloway · 51:53 George? Yeah. We gotta get George on the show. We gotta get Anyway We gotta get Jorge on the show. Kara Swisher · 51:58 I will try. Jorge. Yes. Our friend Jorge. Anyway, we're gonna keep collecting moments of optimism in the next few weeks to share on the show, making you more hopeful and happy right now. Write us an email with the subject line moments of optimism, not including Troy Aiken, is a few lines of of what you're doing, a happy anecdote, a song, a poem, your family home hobbies, your pets, advice for anyone feeling anxious, something to spread the love. Scott Galloway · 52:21 Four Super Bowl rings in his first year in the NFL. He was the lowest rated quarterback in NFL. Kara Swisher · 52:26 He only came email of us. If you wanna write us something mean, go write ahead too, by the way. Bring it. Bring it. Bring it. Email us at pivot@voxmedia.com to be featured on the show. Scott, can you read us out, please? Scott Galloway · 52:38 No. I just first wanna say I wanna say that I want a big thank you to you, Kara, because I feel more optimistic knowing that That I'm not moving makes me more optimistic. I Kara Swisher · 52:48 I have to say I can't believe this. Scott Galloway · 52:49 Yeah. I know. We Kara Swisher · 52:50 You complete me, Scott. You Scott Galloway · 52:53 complete me. Don't I? It's about No. It's good to know that you are finally in touch with your emotions. Today's episode was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Our executive producer was Erica Anderson. Special thanks to Drew Burrows and Rebecca Castro who have done herculean efforts or made herculean efforts to get the jungle cat and the dog, in front of some sort of technology that works. Yes. If you like what you heard, please subscribe. Or you know what? Who gives a fuck? Just stay safe. Stay safe, and tune in next week for a breakdown of all things tech and business.

Came true

Resolved Apr 6, 2020 · 1 month after it aired

Pivot #91 · Aired Mar 20, 2020

If the curve of new COVID-19 infections in Italy begins to flatten, there will be a tremendous surge of optimism and relief (including in markets like the Dow).

Only applies if: The curve of new coronavirus infections in Italy begins to flatten

Wall Street stages explosive rally, powering Dow 1,600 points as investors seize on morsels of good newswashingtonpost.com

3 more sources

How we graded it

Counts as true if: If Italy's new infection curve flattens within the following months, there is a notable surge in market optimism (e.g., Dow Jones rally) and/or widely reported public relief.

Italy's new COVID-19 case curve began flattening in early April 2020, confirmed by health officials and data by April 2-6. This triggered the predicted surge of optimism, most notably the Dow's 1,627-point (7.7%) rally on April 6, 2020, explicitly attributed to slowing infection rates in Italy and Spain, with continued market rallies through mid-April.

Researched and graded by AI on Oct 13, 2026

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