Pivot · Dec 14, 2021

Pivot Predictions Special: 2022

Automatic transcript of the full episode. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

[Ad break] Kara Swisher · 1:28 Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. Scott Galloway · 1:33 Happy birthday, Kara. Kara Swisher · 1:35 Thank you. That was a lovely series of tweets about me being a tiny person or being being an eight year old, [Ad break] Scott Galloway · 1:40 Also called you a baller. Kara Swisher · 1:42 Yes. You what Scott Galloway · 1:42 I was really paranoid was? I was gonna say you were taking a picture with the Soul Women's Olympic basketball team, and I thought the women next to you would literally kick my ass Kara Swisher · 1:50 if I That's true. Scott Galloway · 1:52 Revealed their real... Their true ages. Yeah. I do have a filter. I do have Kara Swisher · 1:56 a filter. Nice. So, Scott, are you you okay? Because the man of the year is Elon Musk. Are you doing okay? Scott Galloway · 2:04 You mean Kim Jong Un? Wait. I mean, seriously, Kara? First off, first off Kara Swisher · 2:10 I'm very happy for you, Elon. Go go ahead. Sorry. Scott Galloway · 2:13 Like him. Hello, Access Journalism. Hello. Kiss my ass. Kara Swisher · 2:16 Like I like talking to him. I think he's a man of accomplishment. He's a... He can be very problematic. Scott Galloway · 2:21 There's a one in three chance Yeah. That the wealthiest man in the world will be person of the year because we... Of this gross idolatry of the dollar. Kara Swisher · 2:28 Okay. Scott Galloway · 2:29 But look, the the reality is... Not that you... I don't know if you're really asking us. The reality is it's probably a correct pick because he has tremendous influence, tremendous awareness, but it marks the age. It marks an age of technological brilliance. It marks an age of possibility. It marks an age of wealth. And it also marks an age of a lack of grace and a lack of respect for the Commonwealth and also an abuse of platforms to try and intimidate other people. I mean, it's actually probably a correct pick for a Kara Swisher · 3:01 lot you would have picked? Scott Galloway · 3:03 Well, I made a prediction. I was wrong. I think it was... I thought it was gonna be Frances Haugen or the couple from... The Turkish couple Mhmm. That helped develop the vaccine. Yeah. And I... So it was another prediction I got wrong. Yeah. But as I thought about it, it probably does mark the age. Kara Swisher · 3:18 Yeah. Yeah. Alright. Well, here we are. Here we are. Scott Galloway · 3:21 Also means? What? I mean, I like to think... It also means that Mark Benioff, in fact, even though he owns time, has... Gives him total editorial license because there's no way Mark Benioff would have picked Elon Musk. Mark Benioff is very, very concerned about citizenship, and I can't Kara Swisher · 3:35 imagine he would have picked him. He had some other things in mind, I suspect. I suspect. Scott Galloway · 3:39 Yeah. What do you think? Kara Swisher · 3:40 You know, I think it's... There's there's a lot of people. I wouldn't... This has been such a frontier. I would go vaccine related or coronavirus related. So, but maybe people are tired of that. You know, it's not... He... He's within the realm. Maria Ressa was another person I might pick. There's a bunch of people. She's... I think she's been near it or something like that. I don't know how they come up with these things. I I I wanna see... I haven't seen the list of people who were close. They have always have, like, 10 other people. I probably would have picked something related to the vaccine, would be my guess. You know, or do something kind of unusual and odd, like, it's like a TV show or something, like, something movie. But I guess there really hasn't been... Streaming would be something I might do. I don't know. I don't know. It's... Anyway. Anyway So Scott Galloway · 4:23 should we try should should we try and relate this back to Scott? Because that's Kara Swisher · 4:26 where the key is. Let's do that. Scott Galloway · 4:27 So I have a man of the year or a person of the year story. One of the runner... Runners up in, like, 1994 or '95 Mhmm. Was a guy named Bob Swanson, who was the CEO of Genentech. Yeah. And I forgot, like, the personal computer one person of the year, which made no sense. Kara Swisher · 4:44 Oh, I thought it did. Scott Galloway · 4:45 Oh, I don't know. Call it Thing of the Year then. Anyways, so I was in a group called YEO that was... You got a mentor who was in YPO because I was a 27 year old entrepreneur. And my mentor that I was paired with was Bob Swanson. And the first thing he did was he showed up and he said, and this is a fairly busy guy, CEO of Genentech, and he says, I just want to follow you around. And I was running and I'd founded a company called Profit Brand Strategy. And the guy followed me around all day, just listened and said, and, like, at the end of the day, just sat me down and said, you need to be more measured with your with your comments. It's more important to be effective, not right. He just gave me so much great advice, and I I thought about what a generous man to just, like, follow you around for a day when you're 28, 28 year old CEO. Mhmm. Anyways, two weeks later, diagnosed with a glioblastoma, passed away nine months later. Kara Swisher · 5:35 Oh. Scott Galloway · 5:36 But a really... A a very, like, not only an impressive successful person, but a very generous Kara Swisher · 5:42 Right. Scott Galloway · 5:43 Man. Anyways. Kara Swisher · 5:45 I... You know, I think this thing is sort of a... It used to be such a big deal. It's person of the year now, anyway. But but it's, you know, it used to be a much bigger thing than it was, I guess. You know, it used to be something Mhmm. Something special. And now it's so... There's so many different awards and this and that. I mean, the different people who won it, like Greta Thunberg, Donald Trump, Angela Merkel How dare you. Marx Zufferer. Scott Galloway · 6:05 How dare you. — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 6:07 Anyway, it's just... I think it's... It probably doesn't have as much pull. Everyone's sort of doesn't have as much pull as it used to, I suspect. In any case, speaking of predictions that, you got right and wrong, this is the end of year prediction show. Today, we'll gaze into our crystal ball and try to forecast what's to come in 2022. And to help us, we've reached out to some of our friends at Pivot who can shed light on what's coming in 2022. Is it the metaverse, China, Apple, all of the above? We'll find out, and we'll give you some predictions of our own for the upcoming year. So let us ponder the orb. Scott Galloway · 6:43 Ponder the orb. Are you talking dirty to me again? Kara Swisher · 6:45 No. I think it's the producers who are trying to get us to say something dirty, and you you Scott Galloway · 6:48 They always cut out my dirty stuff. They always cut out my dirty stuff. But but here's the thing. Every You know it. You know it. Kara Swisher · 6:59 We've saved you from so many cancellations. It's fantastic. Anyway, our first prediction comes from one of our BFFs, Andrew Ross Sorkin, co anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box. Let's hear it. Guest · 7:11 Hey, Karen Scott. It's Andrew Ross Sorkin here. So my prediction of 2022, well, it's all about China and human rights in a way that we've never seen before. Western companies are going to be grappling with China and human rights in a way that they haven't had to grapple before. Of course, so much of Silicon Valley has already left China, but many companies remain. Apple, Elon Musk's Tesla. And this year in large part because of the Beijing Winter Olympics, the globe is going to be exposed to so many of the issues that are taking place there. And at a time when ESG has become such a prominent component of investing, It is going to challenge these companies to rethink their stances. It is potentially going to create hearings in Washington and elsewhere. And we are going to see lots of headlines and hard decisions that need to be made. Scott Galloway · 8:05 The Canadian weighing in. Kara Swisher · 8:08 What a good voice he has. He has such a nice voice, doesn't he? I kinda just believe anything he says. Scott Galloway · 8:13 Handsome online. Kara Swisher · 8:14 Okay. Very handsome. He's handsome. He sounds handsome. He does sound handsome. He, in fact, is handsome. Let me say, I think this is interesting. I don't feel like, you know, tech companies have been in and out of China, Yahoo, LinkedIn, Google. But I don't think... I I I... I'm not going with this one. I think that even though there's a lot of anti Chinese talk out there, and obviously, the story on Tim Cook's secret deal between Apple and China, had written about it, gotten a lot of attention. Forced labor, obviously, is a major issue. I just don't know if it's not gonna be business as usual. I don't know. Scott, what do you think? Scott Galloway · 8:52 I think he's half right. I think there will be a lot of headlines, because the stories are dramatic, and there is a real inconsistency. And we still have this delusion that the CEOs of American companies, better angels, are going to show up. And we're hoping that they fill, and some have filled the void. There's Ken Frazier and Ken Chenault. There are some, Mark Benioff, some CEOs who are filling this vacuum or trying to address the externalities. I'm not sure Americans really care, and I know that's a terrible thing. If you think about, I bet there's more stories about Didi's potential delisting than there are about the internment camps or the Uighurs. I think Americans talk a big name. I think we've lost a lot of moral authority in the world when we have our own insurrections and our own income inequality and our own vaccine hesitance. I'm not sure that China's all that concerned with what we care or say. And I don't know if Americans, I think Americans are still going to buy iPhones regardless of where Apple manufactures them. I think there'll be a lot of headlines. I guess that will perhaps increase pressure. But I think it's optimistic to think that big American companies will take that sort of stand and withdraw from China. None of these companies we've mentioned withdrew from China. Precisely. Think because what I call moral reasons. I think they withdrew because Kara Swisher · 10:17 Well, they Google did. It was spying. There was some, you know, they had they had a long sort of flourish out of the country. But, yeah. Yeah. I agree with you. Yeah. Scott Galloway · 10:26 I hope he's right. I hope he's right. I don't think he is. And also, quite frankly, Trump and what I'll call the the lying and the corruption that was the Trump administration has lessened our our moral authority around the world to ask anything of anybody. Kara Swisher · 10:41 Am I Which is ironic since Trump was quite anti China in a lot of way. Although, he also embraced them. That was such a weird situation. Just so... Just the fact that their academic researchers estimate that the Chinese government has placed more than 1,000,000 people in into interment camps. Again, we've had a history of that in this country. Scott Galloway · 10:57 Jesus. Can you can you Kara Swisher · 10:58 fucking believe Scott Galloway · 10:59 in this day? Can you believe that? Kara Swisher · 11:00 It's an interesting thing. It's just a question of what these... As more light is shed on this, which is very difficult in terms of reporting, it it will be interesting of of the idea of using forced labor. And there are some, bills, aimed at that, which would... The the Uighur forced labor prevention act would require US companies to guarantee they do not use imprisoned or coerced workers from the predominantly Muslim region. And so we'll we'll, we'll see. But that that was an interesting one from mister Sorkin. Okay. Up next is a prediction on streaming content from Rich Greenfield of Light Shed Partners. Guest · 11:36 Hey, Kara and Scott. It's Rich Greenfield from Light Shed Partners in New York. Predictions for 2022. I think the big one that everyone should be focused on is Apple. And when I say Apple, I mean Apple's content moves. I think a lot of people have not taken Apple TV plus terribly seriously, and I think 2022 is gonna be a real turning point for just how serious and how big and bold Apple's ambitions are. You know, everyone knows Ted Lasso, The Morning Show, but there is so much more content coming. There's a movie called killers of the flower moon, DiCaprio, De Niro, Scorsese directing, animation. They're working with Skydance. You probably remember John Lasseter from Pixar. He's producing four animated features with a 1,000 person animation studio. If you haven't seen the animated short blush, it gives you a great preview of what's to come for Apple's animation ambitions. But movies, TV series, animation, Apple TV plus is playing to win, and not enough people are paying attention. Kara Swisher · 12:40 Well, that's interesting. So a competitor to Netflix. It's interesting because I just... I'm I'm watching the morning show right now, which I like. I know everyone else doesn't, but I do. I think it's really interesting. Beautifully done, by the way. I mean, in terms of money. Like, you can feel the money pouring off of it. That's exactly right. And Ted Lasse was obviously a a surprise. And I was... To get to it, I go through Apple Plus to get... I bought Apple Plus to get to the site, but there was not anything on there I wanted to watch except that. That is not the case with Netflix and other... And even Disney, I can always find some old, like, Marvel movie to to look at for five minutes. But... And we watch Sesame Street on there, which is interesting for Clara. But I... They'd have to put a lot more content in here, and I'm... I don't know. We'll see. I... If he says they're coming, they're coming, and I will use it. I I definitely will shift over if that's the case. What do you think? Scott Galloway · 13:29 Apple has proven one thing, and that is, and so has Amazon Prime, that people underappreciate the power of culture. And HBO has consistently produced more with less. Their budgets are dwarfed by Netflix much less, Apple. And Apple is spending, I think, approximately the same amount as HBO, maybe even more. And quite frankly, the best they can come up with is Murphy Brown on Game of Thrones budgets called The Morning Show. And HBO has been able to accomplish another example. Florida is a perfect example of money doesn't translate to cooler taste. Walk into the most expensive homes in Florida and you think, wow, it's really frustrating that people with this much money can have such ridiculously bad taste. And Apple TV is proving that even billions doesn't guarantee the magic and mystery of great storytelling. Because other than Ted Lasso, which by the way, cheered me up after that fucking Elon Musk of the Year tweet this morning. I watched the Ted Lasso Christmas party Instagram stories from Jason Sudeikis. That made me happier. That made me happier. But anyways, Apple TV plus so far, I mean, here's some data. Okay, they have about a 7,000,000,000 budget. They've got what's different is they've gone vertical, which is interesting and very Apple and smart. But they they have the greatest churn. They have a monthly churn rate of 16%, so they have the greatest churn. Kara Swisher · 14:56 Yeah. I only got it to finish the morning show and then I'm canceling it. That's what I'm saying. Scott Galloway · 14:59 And it's also only accessible to Apple users, so they've basically said they're kind of ignoring the 70% of Android. But Apple TV plus is really a testament to just how, in my opinion, I think it highlights just how incredible HBO is. But it's not... And and here's the thing, Kara, it doesn't fucking matter. This company makes so much money that $7,000,000,000, if it gives them any point of differentiation, if Tim Cook gets any more opportunity, if he gets to go to the Academy Awards, if people associate the goodwill, a little bit of the goodwill they have for AFC Richmond and Ted Lasso, and any of that spills over to Apple that covers over the fact that they're, you know, manufacturing in China to our previous story, it's worth 7,000,000,000 and it goes to the notion of content. Content has been featurized. Kara Swisher · 15:46 So But, like, look what we're talking about right now. HBO's succession. Right? That's what we're talking about this morning. Scott Galloway · 15:51 Everyone's You know it. Kara Swisher · 15:52 You know it. And they're really... People love it. Like, you couldn't see it. Now Ted Lasso, do like, but constantly HBO has shows on that you're like, that show. That show. Same thing with Netflix. The same thing with Netflix. I have to say both of them. Scott Galloway · 16:03 Mayor of Houston. But but here's the thing. HBO does it on a quarter of the budget. Kara Swisher · 16:08 Yeah. So we'll see. Scott Galloway · 16:09 I mean Kara Swisher · 16:10 We will see if they can do that. Jennifer Lawrence Theranos movie is gonna be on h, Apple TV plus. I will definitely buy it for that month to watch it. Scott Galloway · 16:17 Yeah. Kara Swisher · 16:18 There's this thing called churn and return. That's what I am. You know? I'll pay for it one month. And, essentially, it's Scott Galloway · 16:22 like paying for Kara Swisher · 16:23 a movie thing. Scott Galloway · 16:24 Mhmm. Apple's doing the WeCrash documentary starring Jared Leto, Anne Hathaway, and and Bill Alcoind as as Scott Galloway. Oh. That's right. Really? That's right. People playing me on TV. Who would play you? Kara Swisher · 16:36 Who's playing you? Scott Galloway · 16:37 The guy Dollar Bill from Billions. Kara Swisher · 16:39 Oh, cool. Holly Hunter. Scott Galloway · 16:40 Super nice man. Kara Swisher · 16:41 Holly Hunter. Scott Galloway · 16:41 Super nice man. I'm going to have a party, a screening party, and I'm gonna invite him and you. Oh. And we'll come up with another list of a 100 people. Kara Swisher · 16:47 Okay. That would be great. You know what's interesting, though? Scott Galloway · 16:50 You seem very excited. Could you seem a little bit more excited? I don't like parties Kara Swisher · 16:53 have to wear pants. It's another... I've gotta put... Do I have to wear pants? Scott Galloway · 16:56 I'll invite the basketball team from the Seoul Olympics. Kara Swisher · 16:59 Okay. Alright. That's them there. Pants is my thing. Like, oh, pants. Okay. Fans. So let me just say, it's really... I think these are gonna continue to be competitive no matter what. I went to see West Side Story on Saturday night. Guest · 17:10 And Oh, how was Kara Swisher · 17:11 that? It was fantastic. It was beautiful to see it in IMAX Theater. Do you know how many people were in the theater and why Amanda decided to come with a baby? Because there were four people in the theater in this massive IMAX Theater. Four people. Crazy. Scott Galloway · 17:25 I love IMAX. IMAX maybe one last movie for a hot minute. Kara Swisher · 17:28 It's not making any money because the old someone go see West Side Story with the COVID. Scott Galloway · 17:33 100%. Kara Swisher · 17:35 I just am like, it doesn't really matter. Like, this is a beautiful... I'm so sorry. This is a beautiful movie by Steven Spielberg. The the book is wonderful. The actors are by Tony Kushner. The actors are astonishing. There's an ingenue they picked for Maria, who is out of 30,000 people. Fantastic. Every... You know, Rita Moreno's in it. Everything fantastic. Four people on a Saturday night. Just saying. I... It was just bad. And and I wanted to watch it in the theater, but Scott Galloway · 18:01 everything Who's else Speaker · 18:01 the stars? Kara Swisher · 18:02 Watch at home. They aren't. They aren't. They're all new people, and they're all fantastic. Scott Galloway · 18:06 No. It's problem. They don't have Ryan Gosling dancing. Kara Swisher · 18:09 I mean, Scott Galloway · 18:10 they gotta get the stars. Kara Swisher · 18:11 Single one of them was amazing, and all of them got a lot of time. Anyway, still, I was sort of like, wow. This isn't gonna work out too well for for Disney on this one. He got it from twentieth Century Fox. Anyway, so it just... It's the trend towards it, so it doesn't hardly matter, and you'll... You'll will churn and return essentially. So we'll see how that goes, and it doesn't matter Scott Galloway · 18:28 if does Everyone talks about the channels, but it's the format that I think is changing too. In in the last month, I've done conversations. My agent has set me up with these kind of baller producers and filmmakers to talk about future media. And my view is, and we said this about Dune, and I think they should have done it with West Side Story, the greatest talent in the world right now is so stuck in this format of one hundred minute film and trying to spend a $100,000,000 to put butts in seats. I think West Side Story should have been an eight part series run on Apple TV plus or something. I... Because there's just no way I'm gonna see it. It's gonna come and go. And and Kara Swisher · 19:05 It is beautiful and a big thing. Beautiful in the theater. This one, it's the first one I'm like, this needs to be in the theater, but nobody was in the theater. It was... It just may be a kind of movie that's never gonna happen again or not for now. Alright. Scott, next up, we have a couple of predictions from senator Amy Klobuchar. Scott Galloway · 19:20 Oh, gangster. Gangster in the house. Guest · 19:23 Hi, Kara. Hi, Scott. Amy Klobuchar. My predictions for next year. In the words of the mayor of Duluth, you wanna start out with the Duluth mayor, we see the lighthouse on the horizon. It sounds better than the light at the end of the tunnel. I see us getting through this pandemic. Why? Because Americans are getting vaccinated and boosted, and people really wanna get moving again. So that's my first prediction. My second one is that the work that we're doing to shore up the economy and the long term work we're doing to make sure that we've got infrastructure going and broadband, and workers getting trained is going to make a difference. I don't know how many times I said on that presidential campaign trail that we're not going have a shortage of sports marketing degrees. And by the way, you're very lucky if you have a sports marketing degree and have a job. Congratulations. But we're not gonna have a shortage of those. We're gonna have a shortage of everything from health care workers to plumbers to electricians to people who work in the trades. And so we've gotta try to focus students and people who are looking for work into those... Into areas where we know there are jobs. So that's gotta be a part of next year. Finally, something near and dear to your hearts, tech. I think you're going to see the work on tech intensify. From the people that have been put into the agencies, to the resources that's going out to those agencies so they can enforce the laws. I'm personally proud of my nondiscrimination bill that makes sure that we've got some rules of the road in place on tech that hasn't been regulated in any way for decades. My group of authors is what Samantha Bee called the Ocean's Eleven of co sponsors. So, hopefully, we will pull off a miracle and get some bills passed as well. That's my plan. That's a lot, as my daughter likes to say. So happy New Year, everyone. Thanks, guys. Kara Swisher · 21:23 Wow. Could she be president right now? What do you think? Scott Galloway · 21:27 I love this one. I am. Kara Swisher · 21:29 Know? Do you think she'll us stick to the White House when she's president? [Ad break] Scott Galloway · 21:32 us? No. I'm I'm... I try to be very transparent about my politics. And the people I'm supporting for president in 2024 are number three, Michael Bennett, number two, Pete Buttigieg, and number one is Amy Klobuchar. I put out a tweet. Hillary Clinton is doing a master class, which I thought was kind of interesting. But I loved Hillary Clinton. And one of the things I think you have to think about with these people that have very important jobs, probably the most important job, is how smart are they? Do they do the work? And how competent are they? And I always thought Hillary Clinton checked all three of those boxes, and I never understood the animus towards her. Amy Klobuchar also checks all three of those boxes. And I hope that the public doesn't have the same kind of gag reflex. Kara Swisher · 22:14 No. There's not the same Bill Clinton problems attached. Scott Galloway · 22:16 But she does the work, super smart. And with respect to what she's talking about, look, she talked a bit touched about vaccines. We're at about 61%, fully 60 But five Kara Swisher · 22:29 good, better. Scott Galloway · 22:30 But Okay, this is where we are. We're on par with Turkey and The Czech Republic, and we're behind Thailand, Mongolia, and Lithuania. And we're 30% behind places like The UAE and Portugal. And the unvaccinated are holding back our economy. We have a fifth wave. I wanna be clear, and the CDC hugely fucked up by saying things like, you don't need a mask or this will end with vaccines. But the reality is the pandemic has largely gone endemic for people with vaccines. The hospitals are totally filled up with the unvaccinated, which is shutting down our economy and still getting in the way of us getting on with our lives. Kara Swisher · 23:04 Alright. So I'm gonna take on the workers thing. I think she's right. I've been actually trying to get different workers. It's very, very hard around the house. Mhmm. 4,400,000 workers quit in September 2021, as we said, the reassessment. Skilled trade workers are in demand. The homebuilding industry needs 61,000 new hires every month for the foreseeable future. Industries that have so many job... All these go to a... Anyone go in a restaurant anywhere, food, hospitality, retail, you can see they have the highest number of job openings. They have the lowest paying benefits. Then there's a lot of people who are dealing with long COVID and can't return to work, which is interesting. Another thing we don't pay enough attention to, is the implications of COVID, that we sort of pretend and put in the back. So there are a lot of opportunities here to train people and move them into new areas that are better for them, better benefits, and things like that. And I think these bills are very important rather than just... And I don't think the COVID relief was a handout, but this is actually moving forward to real... To creating long term sustainable jobs. I still am a proponent just like many people are of of a form of UBI. I did a great interview with Rutger Bregman, who's a... Who's written a book called Humankind. You know, it's venture capital for regular people. Why not? Rich people get it all the time, get chances and Scott Galloway · 24:17 Venture capital for regular people. Kara Swisher · 24:18 Call it a handout when it's Yeah. To other people as if they can't do something with the money. So I I I... I'm in agreement with, senator Klobuchar. I think... I hope there's gonna be a bill. Well, I I doubt that myself, but we'll see. It's a tech bill. Scott Galloway · 24:32 It comes down to a mentality. In The US, we have a 100 games mentality where we think that our kid is exceptional and can end up at Harvard and go on to run a hedge fund or be Mark Zuckerberg. And the reality is our best universities, which are transformational, are engaged in a rejectionist culture where they see themselves as birken bags and not as public servants. And in Europe, they have recognized that there needs to be other great pathways into the middle class. And in Europe, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland have always seen vocational training essential to this. Half of the German population, 47%, has some sort of formal vocational qualification. In The US, it's 5% because we see those jobs at plumbing and electrician where you can only make $200 a year is somehow a disappointment and we have no investment in people. We say, well, either get on a path to being Mark Zuckerberg or Ray Dalio, or we don't want to invest in you. And I think that the vocational training and micro certification has to be a key component if we're gonna start or Kara Swisher · 25:28 renew our commitments to class. Everywhere. You know, am thrilled my son has worked all year in in a retail job. He's... Know, he does... He washes dishes. He carries things. He does cooking. He does... I think he's learned more in this year and gotten more skills than any college can handle. And he's going back to college. You know, I I see that how important that is. I think he does. But I can't tell you how much experience he's gotten in in what is essentially a vocational job in a way. You know? It's it's it's such, it's so important to get people trained in these areas so they can have... Not earn tiny amounts of money and have no benefits, etcetera, etcetera. I think it's really important that we bring up. Scott Galloway · 26:09 I've gotten to know our rug cleaner because I have dogs. So we have this like super nuclear service rug cleaner that comes out about five times a week and I've gotten to know the guy. Kara Swisher · 26:19 He's probably like, oh, the Galloways. Scott Galloway · 26:22 I should just put him on retainer. It's not just about young people in the middle class. This guy is a 65 year old guy. He used to be a pilot. That industry went to shit for him. And he's like, I'm sick of this. I'm sick of not being away from my family. And he bought a van and a franchise and got really good at basically getting all sorts of substances out of all sorts of materials. And I can just... I kind of did the back of the hand math. I think he makes about 150 or $200 a year. And living in Florida, you can live a pretty nice life. And I thought... And the nice thing is he was with... He had with him a young man of color who looked like about all of 19 who was watching everything he did. And I thought that there just needs to be more of this. There needs to be more investment from baby boomers to younger generation. And I was just a a very big fan. It just got me thinking, like, how come we can't institutionalize this? This is Yeah. This is good, good for him, good for us, good for the planet. Kara Swisher · 27:17 A 100%. Okay. Scott, next up, author Cory Docterow on what's to come for the FTC in 2022. Guest · 27:25 Hey, Scott and Kara. This is Cory Doctro, science fiction novelist, activist, blogger, special adviser to the Electronic Frontier Foundation, and here is my prediction for 2022. I think that this year, we are gonna see corporations continue their assault on the Federal Trade Commission and its stated intent to reduce the number of anti competitive mergers. What they've been doing is throwing so many mergers at the FTC that it can't process them all, a kind of strategy. And what I think is gonna happen is that the FTC is gonna take a couple of these and try and make an example of them. Maybe they'll take one that's in the offing and one that's already gone through, and they're gonna go back and they're gonna say, alright. You got past us before we could, take a good look at you, but we took that look anyway. We've decided that what you did was illegal and we're going to unwind that merger and we're going to do it no matter how long it takes and no matter how much it costs you and that's going to be a message to everyone who's thinking, well, I might be able to squeak in under the wire before the new more stringent standards come in and I think it's going to shake investor confidence in firms whose growth strategy is based on access to the capital markets and buying their competitors rather than making stuff that we like. That's both a prediction and maybe a wish. I hope you have a happy new year, and, I'll talk to you in 2022. Kara Swisher · 28:43 I love that Cory doctor. He does a lot of things. I think that's right. I think he's right. I think, you know, I think there's needs... Lina Khan's been relatively quiet. She's the head of the FTC. And I do think that that's a great strategy to do more with less and make examples and do one that's happened and one that's happening. The US Chamber of Commerce are... They're... Has vowed to use every tool at our disposal, including litigation, to combat the FTC's antitrust agenda. They're trying to find out stuff from her email. They did a FOIA request. They cannot regulate with the wave of mergers. 2021 was the biggest year for MNA ever. Google has demanded that Jonathan Cantor over at the DOJ, head of DOJ antitrust, recuse himself. This is one of their tactics. So either trying to get around... Everyone's trying to get around antitrust legislation. I think this is a great prediction. I think he's correct. What about you? Scott Galloway · 29:37 Well, you're both exactly right. And that is we have fallen into this cold comfort, this delusion that when the PR people who have increased by 300% at big tech pretend to give a good goddamn about the Commonwealth, and we believe them. And our job is to fund and support the greatest entity, the greatest force of good in history, the US government, such that it can serve as a ballast for corporations. Corporations are a fantastic vehicle for wealth creation, but they will continue. Their vision will get blurred when it's raising money, and they will say and do anything to try and overrun government when it suits their interests. And just some data here, the FTC, which is a ballast for anticompetitive environments through mergers that create runaway monopolies and duopolies. Fiscal year twenty ten, there were 22 enforcement actions for eleven sixty six reported mergers, which means that one out of every 53 mergers was challenged. And in fiscal year twenty nineteen, there was one less enforcement action, 21, across 2,100 mergers, meaning that only one in a one in a 100 actions. And so it said, well, maybe the actions aren't as threatening. The actions have become more threatening to a healthy business ecosystem because they're about gigantic acquisitions that create data monopolies using network effects where other people can't compete. So we are where we put our money, and do we want to see a continued overrun of government? Kara Swisher · 31:03 So it was really gonna be interesting to see what Khan does. What... She's been very quiet. I'm gonna interview her at some point, for sway. But she, what she does is... And with Cantor now in his position, we'll see what happens. They do have... They've got to move relatively soon, and they have to be incredibly bold. Doing things around the edges is not gonna work here. So, Corey, we hope this works. We hope this works. Scott Galloway · 31:29 But unless they're Rambo, unless we give them the ammunition to fight here, Kara Swisher · 31:33 Yeah. Scott Galloway · 31:33 They're gonna have a tough time. Kara Swisher · 31:34 Yeah. There are some bills to do that, but but it certainly, they certainly need to get out there and and show some teeth to these companies. Alright, Scott. Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, more predictions from our friends of Pivot. [Ad break] Kara Swisher · 33:21 Scott, we're back with more predictions. Next up, we have Joanna Stern, senior personal technology columnist at The Wall Street Journal. She's also a friend of mine. She's got a prediction on the metaverse. Guest · 33:31 Hey, Karen Scott. It's me, Joanna Stern from the Wall Street Journal here in 2021 where tech people cannot stop talking about the metaverse. In 2022, I'm gonna make a bold and brave prediction. They will still be talking about the metaverse. For the most part, I expect the year to basically inch along in that space, but I do expect it to be a big year for VR and AR hardware. Facebook, I mean Meta, has project Cambria, and that's a headset that's due out later next year. It's a high end version of the Oculus Quest with new sensors that will make our avatars seem more human and lifelike. Yeah. And then there are strong reports now that Apple will put out a virtual reality headset with augmented reality features next year. So, yeah, that's my prediction. No real mainstream progress on the metaverse, but lots of talk and buzz and movement for the tech crowd. Love you guys. Scott Galloway · 34:27 Oh, she's so nice. Nice. Kara Swisher · 34:28 I love Joanna Stern. She's the best. She's an excellent Scott Galloway · 34:31 her to our WeCrash documentary screening. Kara Swisher · 34:33 Okay. Good. Let's put Scott Galloway · 34:34 her on Kara Swisher · 34:34 the list. Okay. So I I like that it's ours now. I like that. I like that it's ours. Like, you and I as hosts together, as cohosts kinda thing. She's right. This this stuff coming from project camera is really interesting. I still think it's not... Regular people are not gonna be using things. But when Apple moves into the the virtual reality headset and especially augmented reality features, as you said, it could come in the form of the ear... AirPods. Joanna, I think, is correct. And she's been doing a ton of stuff in the metaverse. She spent twenty four hours living in the metaverse for the Wall Street Journal. Scott Galloway · 35:04 What does that even mean? She watched the matrix 12 times? What does Kara Swisher · 35:07 that mean? I guess. I can't wait to see it. I saw the previous for it. The Apple headset's gonna cost upwards of $3,000. I think that kind of Scott Galloway · 35:15 Mhmm. Kara Swisher · 35:15 Said it. And I think there is metaverse here with Snap and Nayantech. Casey Newton, wrote about it. But so there, I think she's right about the headsets. I think they're out of reach of most people, $3,000. I mean, come on. Scott Galloway · 35:27 So the metaverse as envisioned by Mark Zuckerberg is the most overhyped technology since three d printing. There are already several forms of metaverses, whether it's Twitter or Fortnite or the App Store, in my opinion, the closest thing we have to a metaverse right now. And it just gives me huge comfort and joy that they're portaled into the metaverse, the Oculus, will go down as one of the Lisa and the Palm times 100. It's just not We're gonna get Kara Swisher · 35:55 that in a minute. So talk about, in general, the idea of these headsets and things like that, which she was talking about. Scott Galloway · 36:00 Here's what tech doesn't get and what Chanel and Luxottica and, to a lesser extent, but still, Persol and Warby Parker get. The shit you put on your face is a function of being more attractive to potential mates. And these things are prophylactic. You might as well say, hey, I'm really into magic and I drive a Mazda. No one wants near you. No one wants to have sex with you with this thing on your head. And the reason why the French continue to inspire and delight and continue to dominate luxury is they have a sense for the architecture of the face and what colors, what smells make us more attractive. And tech has no they have literally absolutely no fucking clue. Kara Swisher · 36:42 Agreed. Scott Galloway · 36:42 And name a tech product that increases the opportunity you're gonna have a random sexual encounter Kara Swisher · 36:48 AirPods. Rather than They're kind of... Remember they started off ugly. Scott Galloway · 36:52 Percent. Great example. Kara Swisher · 36:54 I like the medium with people wearing them. Scott Galloway · 36:55 A 100%. But a $3,000 product, unless it's a luxury item, I'm very curious to see the form factor on that. But the Oculus is ridiculous. Kara Swisher · 37:03 The ads for Oculus? They have a lot of them out now for Christmas. And they they have people putting them on, and they're they're like, oh, looking good now. I'm like, no. Scott Galloway · 37:10 Whip it out. Whip out your Oculus? Kara Swisher · 37:12 There was there was one for Lady Gaga, and I was like, oh, please stop. Don't show people doing Oculus, you know, doing those things in the real world because they look ridiculous. Scott Galloway · 37:20 Mhmm. Kara Swisher · 37:21 Like, I don't know what they're thinking. Everyone's wearing a bodysuit, and they're in good shape. But I'm like, you just rendered this. Scott Galloway · 37:26 Lady Gaga is wearing an Oculus? Kara Swisher · 37:28 No. No. Someone else is wearing a dancing to Lady Gaga. Anyway, they're all... These apps great cultural reference. They're like, I think I made fun of one. They were like, good looking. I'm like, what? Like, not good looking. Like, the opposite of good looking. Anyway, we'll see. We'll see. I just Scott Galloway · 37:44 Three of Oculus on, I look like a defective Q tip. I look like a Q tip that was miss, like, had terribly... Gone terribly wrong in the manufacture. I mean If you Kara Swisher · 37:54 were wearing an Oculus, I would just poke at you with a sword. That's what I would do if you were wearing an Oculus. You wouldn't know where I was. Scott Galloway · 38:00 Let me put every... Ignore everything. Facebook executives, you should go all in on the Oculus. Alright. This is a great idea for you. Invest more in the Oculus. Kara Swisher · 38:07 Well, we're gonna get to Scott Galloway · 38:08 that in Kara Swisher · 38:08 a minute. But first, we have a prediction from NBC News senior business correspondent, Stephanie Ruhl, who you're calling the Scott Galloway · 38:15 supreme The supreme ruler. Kara Swisher · 38:16 The supreme ruler. Okay. Let's get to Stephanie. Guest · 38:20 Hey there, Scott and Cara. This is Steph Rule. I would say my New Year's prediction is more like my New Year's hope. I'm ready for cancel culture to get canceled. I am ready for all the powerful forces out there, government, media, business, to stop monetizing and celebrating our divide and get practical. Because the majority of this country, they don't care about politics. They don't wanna be at war with each other. Every person out there, for the most part, wants to be financially secure, physically safe, socially free. The majority of this country is not in the extremes. However, we, as influential bodies, keep celebrating extremes. In 2022, I sincerely hope we stop doing that. Our democracy is at risk, and I'd like to see every business, every person in government, and the media actually figure out a way to celebrate the wins of America and get along. Like, I get along with you two. Happy New Year. Merry Christmas. Kara Swisher · 39:22 Oh, Stephanie. I think she's correct. This is this is your song. This is your little song, Scott. Guest · 39:26 Your little Scott Galloway · 39:26 song is about to break... Like, break into. It's not cancel culture. It's accountability culture. Kara Swisher · 39:31 But it is. Some things deserve... Excuse me. I think there's some very serious things going on and being about restricting voting laws that... What's happening with Roe right now. Mhmm. The information we entered January 6 to like smile and wave throughout it. I think that's not the appropriate response. And it gets mixed up with sort of this celebrity cancel culture thing where someone says the wrong thing, and people do pile on too much, a 100%. But why mix them up? Like, I don't I don't like mixing them up. Some things you do need to be dead serious about, even if it's, you know, a bummer. So I agree. We should try to get along better on the things we can get along with. We shouldn't just reach immediate anger at people over something, not have a... You know, I just... I posted something about Ryan Reynolds and Peloton did a very funny ad Mhmm. About mister Big not dying, and they used the... It was very, very funny. And they used the the the Peloton instructor who's really Wayne, Jess King, and someone was immediately like, oh, now mister Big's moved on to a younger woman. Well, that just sucks. I'm like, no. No. It's it's part of the it's part of the joke. She's the one that was on the... Like... And I literally was like... And I said, do you ever, like, know what you're talking about before you mouth the frig off over this incredibly clever response to, you know, someone dying on your product, essentially? And so people do that, but there are various serious things. I... There's two parts to it, and I think they get interspersed. So there, I didn't crap all over it. Scott Galloway · 40:59 Yeah. We're being torn the fabric of our society, and other society has been torn torn apart. And there's so many unfortunate perfect storms. Social media encourages the algorithms are like, just find two people and say, fight, fight, fight. And the sequestering of people through isolation and COVID makes us less empathetic. When you're not going to the grocery store or the movie theater to work, you have less empathy for the single mother, the person of a different economic or ethnic background. Even like, I think going to movies, Quentin Tarantino described it really well. He said, you're part of a collective. When you laugh and you share media together with other people, you begin to say, okay, these are people that may not look, smell, or feel like me, but they love their children. They love media. And we have a connective tissue that makes us a community in America. And all of those connective tissues are being frayed. And also, partisanship among politicians, even everything is trying to reduce the connective tissue. Gerrymandering, where you have hardened districts, far left or far right, because incumbents want to stay into... In the senate until they're a 110 fucking years old. So they... Once they're in, they wanna mill... Once they get into the How's country the Kara Swisher · 42:15 senators? Representatives, not senators. But go ahead. Scott Galloway · 42:17 Once they get into the country, they want to militarize the border and make it harder for... So everything, so many things are fraying at this connective tissue. And I would like to see what can we do to restore these connective tissues when there's so many forces in technology and with the pandemic that the bottom line is they're absolutely dividing us. And I think it's a really big issue. She gave the kind of the same talk at Jenny Off's dinner, and she got a lot of applause for it. I'm I'm... Oh, and by the way, speaking of centrist culture, did you see who joined CNN plus? Who? Oh, you didn't see this? No. Most... Okay. I'll get... I'll make this one easy. Most respected journalist at Fox. Kara Swisher · 42:59 I don't know. Chris Wallace? Scott Galloway · 43:01 Chris Wallace is joining CNN plus. Kara Swisher · 43:03 Oh, finally. Scott Galloway · 43:05 Wow. Oh, they're just crazy. Do you think he's intimidated showing up with me there? Do think he's intimidated? Kara Swisher · 43:11 I think he's a terrific interviewer. I think that's a big get. Wow. They are going crazy over the right wing. Speaking of people who just like a piling... Like, it does... It's it's everywhere, that kind of thing, like, fast pile on. Like, he does a good interview, and they they feel the need to insult them. Like, why not tell you, oh, that was a good interview. Like, you know what I mean? Or I I experience it sometimes when I interview conservative people. I get a lot of pile on. I'm like, I'm often like, screw you. My job is to talk to people difficult or not. So... But I agree with you in many more ways. Scott Galloway · 43:37 What can we do? Right? And and I wanna live up to this. Anytime someone says something on Twitter or anywhere else, it's not your job to find the soft tissue of their statement and press on it. It's like, don't take shit out of context. And Jonathan Haidt said something that was so powerful, and it's changed my behavior and reaction to say, okay, there's a weakness in their statement or their soft tissue, so I could go after it and dunk on them, and the algorithms rubbed that. And he said, you should always take any gesture with the intention it was given. And most of the times when people get back in your face, it's like, come on, you know what they were trying to say. You know what they were trying to do. It was funny. And we just need to show a little bit, I think... And I'm I'm trying to take this seriously to heart, just a little bit more generosity Kara Swisher · 44:25 Agreed. We are in agreement about this. Interesting. It was actually one of the plot points on The Morning Show when this guy's like, just assume I'm on your side to sit, like... Because one of the characters is always fighting. Really interesting. It was actually complex. It was a complex thought and and something that was this more drama. Scott Galloway · 44:42 And you know what's been overheard in the CNN elevator over and over? What? Casey Hunt, Chris Wallace, and who? Oh, I love that. I love that. Do you think he's intimidating? Kara Swisher · 44:53 Debuting? And why do they have to come get me to to bail you out here? Scott Galloway · 44:56 To bail you out? That's called week one. Kara Swisher · 44:58 No. Week two. I know. Scott Galloway · 45:00 Okay. This isn't working.... Kara Swisher · 45:01 Go it alone, Scott. I love your little attempts to go it alone. Scott Galloway · 45:04 Hello, time, Sway, with all this shit you do. But you go to cool lunches and don't invite me with basketball players, the the Sol Olympics female basketball team. I would have rocketed at that party, by the Kara Swisher · 45:14 way, at lunch. You... There's no men involved. Scott Galloway · 45:17 There was a man there. A guy from New York Magazine was invited. Kara Swisher · 45:20 He left. Know this for free. He got left by drinks. If you came as a waiter, you could have gone. Scott Galloway · 45:24 Me. They love the dog. Kara Swisher · 45:26 They don't Scott Galloway · 45:26 want the dog. Kara Swisher · 45:27 That's a lady lunch. It's a lady lunch, and you're not invited. Just talk to Joanna Coles, your friend Joanna. I didn't... I don't make the rules. I would I would not have a lady lunch. I'd have a minute at my lady lunch. Scott Galloway · 45:35 I would have been awesome at that party. Chris Wallace likes me. Chris Wallace likes me. He's not good. Kara Swisher · 45:41 He's gonna walk right by you in the hall. He's like, who is this man? Scott Galloway · 45:44 No. He's gonna ask me for coffee. He's not. I'm so old. He's gonna assume I'm, like, an HR. Kara Swisher · 45:49 He's completely not gonna ask you for coffee. Anyway Scott Galloway · 45:52 But that... But seriously, just pause from it. That's a big fucking deal. Chris Wallace at CNN. Guest · 45:57 That's a Scott Galloway · 45:57 big deal. Kara Swisher · 45:59 It's a good... It's... Scott Galloway · 46:00 I'm very excited. Kara Swisher · 46:00 He's an excellent, excellent interviewer. Alright. Next, we Scott Galloway · 46:04 have Neil Cavuto, and then Fox is a shell of itself. There are no reasonable people left. Kara Swisher · 46:08 No. It's not. It'll be fine with their crazies. They don't mind. They don't they don't like those other people who have a different point of view. It cleans it out for them, makes it clear. Scott Galloway · 46:16 I don't think America's smarter than that. Next up, we have a prediction from my role model and literally the dean evaluation and arguably the greatest instructor in the history of graduate education, professor Aswath Damodaran. Guest · 46:29 Hi, Karen, Scott. I'm not one for predictions. I'm not that good at them. But if I had to make a prediction for next year, it is that inflation will be the star of the show in either good ways or bad ways. In good ways, if inflation drops back to pre COVID levels, I think we have a real shot of building on this economic recovery and keeping markets going. In bad ways, if inflation stays high, in other words, it's not transitory, it's not because of the supply chains, then I think we have a real problem. Interest rates will rise no matter what the Fed wants them to do. The Fed might have to clamp down and try to bring inflation down. The economy will suffer and stock and bond prices will bear the pain. In addition, I think Bitcoin and gold and alternatives to traditional financial assets will do well. So I guess we'll find out soon enough, but I've had to make a call. 2022 is the inflation year. Thank you. Kara Swisher · 47:30 Oh, man. He's delivering a tough message. Tough message in such a classy way. What a classy guy he is. Anyway, corporate profits hit record highs in 2021, leading some to believe the real issue is corporate profiteering rather than inflation. Bitcoin, as he's noted, is up 60% from January 1. Gold is down 6%. So he's sort of going with the inflation thing, which is not good for, the Biden administration. It's not good for the economy. There's all this money being shoved into the economy with all these bills. So what do you what do you think? What do you think, Scott? Scott Galloway · 48:02 Well, so the annual rate of inflation last month was over 60%, a thirty year high. And it's also a global phenomenon, and that is the majority of nations are recording some of their highest inflation rates in a while. I'm not an economist, even though I taught macro and microeconomics in graduate school. But I actually would take, well, he's being smart. He's making a prediction that inflation will be front and center in 2022, which is probably true. What I find with technology is that technology is just so deflationary. And that is, so I'm in the ed tech business, right? My company is Section four. I see how much money is pouring into ed tech and how much money is pouring into technology. And what I see is when you have this abundance of capital going into tech and consumer tech, the first thing they do with that capital is they create or try and create a better product at a lower price. So I just think the capital going into technology whose mission is to bring prices down, I think will ultimately win as the supply chain or the gunk in the supply chain gets worked out. So I think the deflationary forces of technology will ultimately reign supreme here, and inflation will start to come down. And if you look at the markets, if you look at the ten year and the credit markets, they kind of agree with that thesis. And that is interest rates have not gone crazy here. Even though inflation Kara Swisher · 49:24 Disagreeing with us, Walth. That's a Scott Galloway · 49:26 I think... I just think techno... If you look at if you look at technology and the abundance of capital available to trying to come up with a better product for less money, there's never been more munitions trying to find, invent better products for less money. Kara Swisher · 49:41 I like that you're going up against a smarter guy, but okay. Scott Galloway · 49:44 Oh, that's easy. By the way, professor De Motoren is gonna be at Pivot MIA Yes. Talking about stars. Kara Swisher · 49:51 Very exciting. Very exciting. Well, you two can debate this. Scott Galloway · 49:54 There's no way I'm debating. The way Kara Swisher · 49:56 You just did. Scott Galloway · 49:57 If you in fact see... But let me just be clear. If you in fact see that there's some disagreement between professor g and professor d, oh, you should definitely go with professor d. You should definitely go with professor g. Kara Swisher · 50:07 Professor d. I'm gonna start a show on on CNN Plu, called professor D. Alright, Scott. Onto our next prediction. This one from author and reporter, Frankel, on Meta. This is Shira Frankel, tech reporter with The New York Times and author of An Ugly Truth with Cecilia Kong. Facebook is going to try and stay as much as possible under the radar this year. They really want the metaverse to work, and internally, are shuffling teams to dedicate their full resources towards that race. They're up against Apple, Google, and a number of other companies that wanna lay stake to the metaverse. And Facebook knows that at this point, PR wise, all they can do is hope that they stay out of the the top headlines in the New York Times and other publications, and that the focus shifts elsewhere so that they can get to work on the metaverse. I don't know. Okay. So good luck with that Facebook. They seem to always, like, land in land in hot water. You know, of course, they're moving everything in this direction because the big blue service is not what the business they wanna be in anymore, and they're trying really hard. Now other companies have done this, shifted Google, certainly shifted in lots of ways, although search is still at the heart of their business. You know, this is... Companies always try... Microsoft kinda did this, moved into the cloud. Okay. I just don't think they have enough creativity to do this. This is too this is much too too much of a creative endeavor along with a technological endeavor, and I just don't think they've got this set to do it. What about you? Scott Galloway · 51:36 Well, she is right. Yeah. They're trying to create another weapon of mass distraction. And it's like, oh, let's talk about leaning in or let's talk about the metaverse because we want to just change the conversation. And I don't doubt that the metaverse is gonna kind of dominate the headlines as it relates to Facebook. But just to be clear, my personal mission is to remind people in all of 2022 over and over that, unwittingly or not, probably the greatest exogenous influence across teen depression resulting in hospital admissions of self harm up eighty percent since social went on mobile, and the primary culprit here is Facebook and specifically Instagram. And I think it's up to us to consistently remind people that these mendacious fucks should not be let off the hook because of a fucking headset. Kara Swisher · 52:28 Trademark. Fendacious fuck. Scott Galloway · 52:29 And It's our next the fact that Mark Zuckerberg wants to talk about his opportunity to see Ariana Grande in Istanbul with a prophylactic he puts on his head. This company is about to deservedly get a lot of scrutiny. And I don't think they're bad people. I don't think they meant to do this. But it's no accident that teen depression and self harm among teens began to skyrocket about the time Social went on mobile and about the time Facebook acquired Instagram. So my prediction is, yeah, she's right, but we're gonna continue to remind people what is actually going on here. Kara Swisher · 53:06 Yes. We are. Yes. Scott Galloway · 53:07 We are. Seem so indignant. Kara Swisher · 53:08 I know you're I sound... I'm endaceous fuck sort of kind of registered what I think you meant. Scott Galloway · 53:12 That's my new boy band. That's my new boy band. The mendacious fucks. Kara Swisher · 53:16 Your show on scene in Ploo or maybe in the metaverse called mendacious fucks? Scott Galloway · 53:20 I can be in a boy band. I have the same barber as Elon Musk. Kara Swisher · 53:23 Maria, that's your boy. You know what my band Scott Galloway · 53:25 name is? The way, you insult a dog on Twitter, you get a terrible haircut. Kara Swisher · 53:28 Okay. You get a terrible my band name was? Why don't you ask? Scott Galloway · 53:32 Go ahead. Kara Swisher · 53:33 Pregnant women smoking. Pregnant women smoke. Scott Galloway · 53:35 Pregnant women smoke. I do like that. By the way, there's a great photo of my mom with a drink and a cigarette in a gigantic belly. That's me. Kara Swisher · 53:42 Did you send a Christmas card? I didn't get a Christmas card from the Galloways, did I? No. I Scott Galloway · 53:45 don't get... Don't send out Christmas cards. Kara Swisher · 53:47 I was gonna send out a Christmas card where my kids are smoking. We're lit... We're recycling badly. We're all licking on our phones. That's what I was gonna send out because all these people are so happy, shiny people. Scott Galloway · 53:57 I I mean it sincerely. Mhmm. You should send out a Kara Swisher · 54:00 Christmas card. Scott Galloway · 54:01 Follow the kids and everything. It'd be pretty. Kara Swisher · 54:03 Like a baby. Scott Galloway · 54:04 You have you have the most beautiful child in the world. You have white LeBron. Yeah. You have the younger fourth wife. Yes. I mean, just makes for an awesome Christmas card. Kara Swisher · 54:15 Yeah. But I want them to be doing bad things. Right? Like, everyone's not looking at each other. There's... I just... I hate Scott Galloway · 54:21 Christmas cards. Bane. I don't give Bane enough a lot. Kara Swisher · 54:23 You're you're so good. Bane. Scott Galloway · 54:25 Oldest son looks like Bane. Kara Swisher · 54:26 I got home last night. I was I was late doing this, Twitter Spaces with Jerry from, Succession, Jay Smith Cameron, who is wonderful, by the way. And he was cooking Scott Galloway · 54:37 that Jerry? Kara Swisher · 54:38 Yeah. Last night. It was 2,000 people on Twitter. Scott Galloway · 54:40 She's incredible. Kara Swisher · 54:41 Yeah. I'm gonna get her to come to Pivot. How's that? How's that? Great. I love that, Jerry. I'm gonna have Jerry. Scott Galloway · 54:46 Favorite relationship in the whole thing. Kara Swisher · 54:48 Yeah. She's wonderful. She's a... She's an amazing actress. And, just Scott Galloway · 54:51 really she Jen in? I will watch her. Speaker · 54:53 Got a Kara Swisher · 54:53 lot of Broadway stuff. A lot of theater in New York. Well, not just Broadway, but all over New York. She's very well Scott Galloway · 54:57 Oh, we gotta roll with Jerry. Yeah. Can you get Jerry to come out with us? Kara Swisher · 55:00 She she and I had been texting this entire show. Anyway, she... When I got home, I rolled home, and Louie was cooking in Scott Galloway · 55:05 a send hot a dick pic? Wait. What's going on here? Kara Swisher · 55:07 No. We talked about that. You can listen to it on on Twitter. Louie was cooking in Scott Galloway · 55:12 By the way, you're haunting me. I'm so I'm sorry. Go ahead. I'm sorry to interrupt you again, but if I interrupt you 7,000,000 more times, I'll be even. But I literally... I watched Succession, and I'm like, that was fantastic. I'm ready to go to bed. And then all of the... All of a sudden, I see fucking join us after hours with Kara Swisher. I'm like, Jesus Christ, leave me alone. Leave me alone. Listen. It was Jerry. Kara Swisher · 55:32 It was Jerry and Comfrey. Comfrey was watching Scott Galloway · 55:34 I just shut off when I... I I literally am like I'm like, god. That was amazing. I'm trying to process it all. I'm like, for more for more, go to our podcast with Cara. I'm like, oh god. God. Kara Swisher · 55:44 I'm everywhere. Scott Galloway · 55:46 She's a... To resist is futile. Kara Swisher · 55:48 Oh, don't be a mendacious fuck and just be happy Scott Galloway · 55:51 for me. MF. Kara Swisher · 55:51 Any... MF. I like that. I'm gonna use that term now. Okay, Scott. One more prediction from a friend of Pivot. I think you have a very special connection to this guest. Let's listen. Scott Galloway · 55:59 Who's that? Guest · 56:01 Hey, Kara and Scott. George Hahn here, one time cohost of Pivot and Scott's future ex mistress. Listen. My prediction, the 2008 Pixar movie Wall E will continue to look less like an animated sci fi fantasy and more like a documentary. The film depicts a time when fossil fuels and the greed from the profits continue to fuck up this planet so badly that it can barely sustain life. A time when we've over consumed and generated so much waste on land, in oceans and even in space that we have run out of places to put the trash. A time when human interaction and social skills have atrophied to the point where people live in their devices and have lost the ability to have any real intimacy. Metaverse anyone? And speaking of atrophy, the humans in the movie, glide around in floating Barkaloungers with no physical activity constantly slurping from sippy cups while squeezed into yoga pants and adult size stretch onesies. But that's not the future kids, that's now. But as the movie portends, I believe there is hope. As long as there is a will to be better than this. That is my prediction for 2022 and beyond. Kara Swisher · 57:24 Your ex mistress. Your ex mistress is wise. Your ex mistress Scott Galloway · 57:28 is wise. There's there's every reason but one that I would like to be in a relationship like that with George I... By the way, I owe you, and, of course, I'm relaying this back to me. First, I think George Hahn is a gift. I absolutely love him. I don't know if he watches Yeah, he is. Kara Swisher · 57:44 He's delight. Scott Galloway · 57:45 His things on Twitter where he takes walks. Yeah. I think he's had... Or when he's shaving in the morning. Kara Swisher · 57:50 Yeah, he's a delight. Scott Galloway · 57:50 But I owe you I owe you thanks. I have become friends with George Hahn because of you, so I got a friendship out of this. Kara Swisher · 57:56 Good. Scott Galloway · 57:56 And, I think I'm about to become friends with Preet. Pritz. Kara Swisher · 58:00 Oh. Scott Galloway · 58:00 I was on his podcast, and I like him. Kara Swisher · 58:02 Were you? See? I Scott Galloway · 58:03 talked are gonna get together socially. Oh, yeah. We're get together socially. Kara Swisher · 58:06 You're both tall men. You were very tall at Pretty tall. I saw that at Coda. I saw a little spark between you, a little spark when you met in person. A lot. I think you're intrigued with each other. You sort of Scott Galloway · 58:15 But Ji Han, he and I he and I have become friends, and I think George Han is a really interesting kinda cultural voice. I wonder how it's gonna... My prediction is in 2022 is that George Hahn you hear more about and from because I Kara Swisher · 58:27 think on we're CNN Plu since you're over there. Scott Galloway · 58:30 Well, he's gonna be... Know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna have a segment called George Walks the Dog, and we're gonna do his walks. I'm kidding. Serious. I'm 100% And serious I'm just gonna ask him questions and get his responses. And, of course, I'll weigh in because I gotta turn everything back to me. Kara Swisher · 58:45 You need to make him a star. That's what you need to do. He's a star. Scott Galloway · 58:48 That's one of my predictions. I think Jihon... I think 2022 is a big year for sure. Kara Swisher · 58:52 Well, I like this. Let's focus on his prediction, which I think he's right. It's a... You do start to feel like you gotta put some pants on and get outside, and start being nicer to people. I think both Stephanie and George are correct in that way. I I had a thing today where I was I was... I drove the golden child to school, and then I was coming back, and someone was being a real dick on the road. And I usually, like, chase them, essentially. Scott Galloway · 59:15 You pull your gun out of your glove box? Kara Swisher · 59:16 Right. Exactly. And you know what I did? I didn't. I slowed down, and I just was like, serenity now. I don't know I don't know what got me, but I was like, serenity bow. I Scott Galloway · 59:27 I give him a a friendly honking horn. Go beep beep, and I wave at him. And I smile. Like, they... Like, never Kara Swisher · 59:31 do that. Scott Galloway · 59:32 Think they're my friend. Hey. Hi. That's... That... And that really pisses them off. Kara Swisher · 59:36 I... Not gonna change for life, but it was really interesting. And, you know, now, of course, when when Amanda goes, what does mom say in the... Mom... Meaning me, mom is saying the card. It's go. Go. Go. Scott Galloway · 59:47 Go go go. Kara Swisher · 59:48 Go go go, which I'm always... Because people are slow. Scott Galloway · 59:50 But circling back to George Hahn's prediction about... Have you seen Wally? Kara Swisher · 59:54 Yes. Many years ago. Fantastic movie. Scott Galloway · 59:56 It's a wonderful film. Kara Swisher · 59:58 Worth seeing again. Scott Galloway · 59:58 Wonderful film. Kara Swisher · 59:59 Yep. Let's not do that. Let's not become that. It was a beautiful film. It was a poignant film. I think it's... It got a lot of attention at the time, but it's underrated in terms of, you know... I saw there was a... There's a new Buzz Lightyear coming and stuff like that from Pixar, but that was a that was a hell of a movie. That was a hell of a movie. Scott Galloway · 1:00:15 Buzz Lightyear? Kara Swisher · 1:00:16 Buzzly... There's a new movie. There's a new... I forget what it's... Infinity and beyond. I don't know. Anyway, it looks good. Pixar always does great movies. Okay, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back to give our own predictions for 2022. [Ad break] Kara Swisher · 1:02:04 Okay, Scott. We're back. Time to give our own predictions for 2022. Why don't you start? Scott Galloway · 1:02:10 Well, I'm telling you my my predictions event hasn't happened. It's been rescheduled for the first week in January, so I don't wanna I don't wanna, like, steal my thunder. I've got a bunch Kara Swisher · 1:02:18 of that you could pull out? One nugget? Scott Galloway · 1:02:22 One nugget. Kara Swisher · 1:02:24 Just one. Scott Galloway · 1:02:24 Well, I think I I think... I mean, a few of them. Discovery plus as imagined will be broken up in its first year. It's not going to survive as an independent company. I think we're going to see a lot of focus on Chinese stocks for better or for worse, but they have been hurt so badly. I think the EV market cap of Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla is going to get cut in half. I think I said that last week. I think the short opportunity of the century is DWAC. I think it is comical that Trump and Nunes are going to try and run a tech company. I think that's literally hilarious. I've got a bunch of stuff that I think is gonna... A bunch of predictions around tech and stocks, which I always get shit for deservedly. And my usual stuff, Twitter will be acquired, all that good stuff. Kara Swisher · 1:03:20 Anyways. Alright. I'm not having any more children this year. Scott Galloway · 1:03:25 That you know of. That's when you usually get pregnant with twins. Oh, wait. How's that even happen? Kara Swisher · 1:03:29 It doesn't. It doesn't. I'm done. Scott Galloway · 1:03:31 You should have more kids. Kara Swisher · 1:03:33 I predict your television show is going to be a huge hit or not. Scott Galloway · 1:03:37 Go on. Go on. Kara Swisher · 1:03:39 Or a flaming disaster, which is always good too. Scott Galloway · 1:03:42 Look at me. I can't stop smiling. Yeah. I can't stop smiling. It's the one medium I have not figured out as TV Kara Swisher · 1:03:47 am gonna move into television in 2022. Kara's gonna move into television. I can't say how, but I'm going to. That's my prediction. Scott Galloway · 1:03:54 By the way, we're cohosts. They're just not paying you. Kara Swisher · 1:03:56 Free. No. I'm not. Not unless you pay me. I predict our pivot Miami is gonna be wonderful. I think people should Scott Galloway · 1:04:03 February February 14. By the way, I heard we have more applicants than we have seats. Kara Swisher · 1:04:07 We do. We do. We do. We're vetting people. Scott Galloway · 1:04:10 So we get to be editors. We get to decide. I think it's I think it's one thing. I think we invite Preet. George Hahn, Aswath Damodaran, and then just hot people. Okay. That is my criteria. Just ridiculously hot people. Kara Swisher · 1:04:22 Invite a lot of people, and it's gonna be really fun. We're going for, you know, illumination. I think we're gonna go for illumination and a lot of fun. Illumination. It's gonna be a lot of fun. And I... You have a lot of fans in Miami. My friend who is a big caterer down there is so excited to meet you. They're very excited. Scott Galloway · 1:04:36 That's nice. Kara Swisher · 1:04:37 Yeah. She's great. Speaker · 1:04:37 Is that Scott Galloway · 1:04:38 true story? I need the reaffirmation. Is that Kara Swisher · 1:04:39 a true story? She called me from her her her Scott Galloway · 1:04:42 That's nice. Kara Swisher · 1:04:42 Her beautiful Miami condo or whatever the other day. And she's like, what's new? And I go, oh, I had a baby. She's like, what? That's that's how people in Florida... And then I gave her... Asked her for some Florida advice, and she gave some good stuff about, doing events down there and stuff like that. Anyway, it's gonna be great. I predict our our our thing, and there's a lot gonna go on this this year in terms of stuff we're gonna be making, I think. Correct? Correct? Scott Galloway · 1:05:07 Another thing coin that gives you the right to our EV vehicle. That's right. The erecto vehicle. The erecto dysfunction eye. Kara Swisher · 1:05:15 Oh my god. And free Chipotle to you for Scott Galloway · 1:05:17 the worth more than Fiat Chrysler on the first day of trade. Kara Swisher · 1:05:20 No. It won't. Anyway Yeah. Scott Galloway · 1:05:22 Scott Can anger fuel a car? Kara Swisher · 1:05:25 If it can. Scott Galloway · 1:05:29 I can save the climate. It's Climate change over. Kara Swisher · 1:05:32 No. We found a way to channel this anger oppression. Change would be over. Anyway, Scott, that's the show. This is a very long show. Thank you all for Scott Galloway · 1:05:39 sticking with us. Gonna be big. Kara Swisher · 1:05:40 What? Okay. Alright. There's couple more. Scott Galloway · 1:05:42 There's gonna be big Kara Swisher · 1:05:43 in 2022. Scott Galloway · 1:05:44 It's gonna be big. Okay. Is gonna be big. Kara Swisher · 1:05:46 Thank you to all our friends at Pivot for sending your predictions. They were all terrific. As I said, I'm excited to announce our event. Pivot MIA is now accepting more applications to attend. You don't wanna miss this. Visit nymag.com/pivotmaa to apply, and don't forget to check our Twitter feed for the latest updates. In coming weeks, we'll have lots of great episodes in the feed for you, including a look back at the biggest stories of 2021, some of our favorite moments from the podcast, and the end of year listener mailbag episode. So stay tuned, and we'll see you in the new year. Okay, Scott. Read us out until 2022. — Predictions segment ends — Scott Galloway · 1:06:21 Today's show was produced by Lara Naaman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Neil Silverio. Ernie engineered this episode. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. Or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next Tuesday for another breakdown of all things tech and business. [Ad break] Speaker · 1:07:06 Fall savings are happening now at The Home Depot. Save up to $500 on select appliances, plus enjoy free delivery when you spend $998 or more. From prepping to cooking to cleaning up, Frigidaire has you covered. The custom flex temp drawer switches from fridge to freezer. With more than 15 cooking modes, including stone baked pizza mode, you can enjoy restaurant quality pizza in as little as two minutes. Then clean up with the Frigidaire dishwasher featuring the industry's fastest normal wash cycle. Shop fall savings now at The Home Depot. Off in Valiquette, October 21, US only. Kara Swisher · 1:07:35 See you Scott Galloway · 1:07:35 tomorrow Speaker · 1:07:35 online for details.

Came true

Resolved Dec 31, 2022 · 13 months after it aired

Pivot #260 · Aired Dec 14, 2021

The combined market capitalization of Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla will fall by half during 2022 from their late-2021 levels.

Tesla (TSLA) Market Cap & Net Worthstockanalysis.com

3 more sources

How we graded it

Counts as true if: Combined market capitalization of Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla as of end of 2022 is approximately 50% or less of their December 2021 combined value.

Combined market cap of Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid fell from roughly $1.22 trillion at end of 2021 to about $418 billion at end of 2022, a decline of approximately 66% — well beyond the 50% threshold Galloway predicted. Each company individually also lost more than half its value during 2022, driven by the broader growth-stock selloff and EV sector headwinds.

Researched and graded by AI on Oct 13, 2026

8 / 10