Pivot · Jun 25, 2021

House Judiciary Committee antitrust bills, Microsoft hits $2 trillion, and a prediction on the future of social media

Automatic transcript of the end of the episode, from 41:09. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

Scott Galloway · 41:09 Making our backyard exceptional. I'm just so blown away by how, beautiful my backyard got. When I say my backyard, I mean the sealant and the sky. And, also, the reason I don't talk about it a lot is there are certain categories that are so important, that if you don't have domain expertise, and this is how I'm sort of evolving as a person, you shut the fuck up. And the reality is I don't really have a lot of domain expertise. And whenever you say anything, including anything I said here, there's a religious fervor around this topic. And people come out... It's impossible to say anything that doesn't piss people off, and especially if you don't have domain expertise here. So my good friend Bob Perkowitz at Echo America, he he really... He said something... And, again, I'd bring everything back to me. But when you talk about the power of this stuff, and I just look at it through the lens of how powerful or how I've come to embrace the outdoors. When my... One of my sons was struggling, he said, all you need to do is get them, outside. It's one of one of the most restorative things you can do. Yes. So anyways, the bottom line is I'm trying to be more thoughtful about this stuff because I realized not only not only how important climate change is, but just how wonderful, you know, the outdoors is. It adds a great endorsement. But anyways, I I... A huge topic. I don't think either of us don't feel don't feel aren't supporters of it. We're just... Or or don't recognize the problem here. It's just it's just it's best when you don't Kara Swisher · 42:34 know what to talk about. Really interesting. It would be kind of interesting as an exercise for you to look at where are the investment opportunities because I, you know, I I wrote something in a column last year and I said the world's first trillionaire, speaking of trillionaires, will be a climate change technologist. And I made that up. I just made it up. I was just trying to say, like, this is an area of great economic opportunity to try to make... To figure these things out, but behind just mitigation, which is carbon capture and everything else. But where is where is the real innovation gonna happen in smart manufacturing and smart, smart home building, smart food making? There's so much, like, so much shift that could could happen here that could just like with electrical, like, beyond coal. It cleaned up, you know, We still have a dirty world, but it's not as dirty as like London used to be filthy. Right? So what is the way what is the way that we can make this an economic opportunity, which is a way to spur innovation for a lot of people. And that... I'd love to, like, sort of start thinking about what are the cool companies that are... What are what are the companies that are most interesting and what are the what are gonna be the biggest companies in our world? Because this is gonna... Whoever dominates this is gonna be a very important player in the next twenty years. Scott Galloway · 43:46 Yeah. And it's one of those things too. It feels like the weather events or climate change inspired catastrophes, whether it's the wildfires in California or rising sea levels, whatever it might be, feels like, unfortunately, we went from... There became so many of them so fast. It feels as if we hit some sort of tipping point. Kara Swisher · 44:05 Yeah. That's what Scott Galloway · 44:06 you're But I worry we're becoming a little bit a little bit numb to it. But these... You know, it's something like 80% of the crazy wildfires that have ever happened in California have happened in the last decade. Yeah. Kara Swisher · 44:16 Yeah. You know what we're gonna do, Scott? Scott Galloway · 44:18 Go ahead. What's We're gonna... Kara Swisher · 44:19 At PivotCon in Miami, we're going to do a section on this, on the interesting companies. Scott Galloway · 44:24 Yeah. But the thing that the thing that's so disappointing again about something that's so important is how the hell did this get politicized? Republicans, Teddy Roosevelt, the first great environmentalist, was a Republican. Like, when did we all decide if you're on the left, you have to be, you know, like, you can't... There's a lot of what I would call unreasonable conversations on the left around the environment, not acknowledging that people at the end of the day, regardless of what's right or wrong, will vote for their economic interests. And unless you address economic growth in the... You know, all of this in the context of climate change, you're just not gonna have a productive conversation. And and then on the right, they wanna be science deniers. Right. Which is, well, how did we get here, folks? I I mean, anyway, I don't... I I I find whenever that... How the how the fuck did we politicize obesity masking requirement? Kara Swisher · 45:12 Everything. Scott Galloway · 45:12 Everything. That we kind of appeared to all have a shared vested interest in figuring out. Kara Swisher · 45:17 Everything is politicized now. But maybe it won't be in the future. Anyway, Mark, American Kiwi, we think this is important. We should... We're gonna do our homework on this and gaming. Okay, Scott? Those are the two things. Scott Galloway · 45:28 Well, I wonder what Kara Swisher · 45:28 Chuck Todd Scott Galloway · 45:29 thinks. No. I don't. I don't care. Chuck Todd. Chuck Todd, you and your... I'm excited about Peacock. I'm excited about Peacock. Kara Swisher · 45:38 Peacock. Say it like that. If you... Let's have a Peacock show and have nobody watch it. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. [Ad break] Speaker · 45:55 Botox, onabotulinum toxin a, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It's the number one prescribed branded chronic migraine preventive treatment. [Ad break] — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 47:18 Okay, Scott. Predictions. Go for it. I made my little prediction about Microsoft. You make one now. Scott Galloway · 47:24 The most exciting thing about antitrust is that it's oxygenating for the environment. And when I say the environment, I mean the business environment. And we're about to see a massive amount of innovation in categories where there was a dearth of startups because people saw monopoly power, and that is we're gonna see there hasn't been a social network of any size in America launched since 2011, and that was Pinterest. In the next twenty four months, we'll see two or three new viable, robust start ups in social media. We're gonna see new hardware companies. We're gonna see new search engines. We already see subscription search engine, Neva. We're gonna see new ad tech platforms. Companies and their backers are gonna say... Are gonna believe that it's a credible threat that these companies are about to be broken up, that antitrust is coming. I mean, I... One of the reasons I invested in Neva Mhmm. Is that the best reason you wouldn't invest, it's like, okay. Let's assume it works. Let's assume Yeah. Let's assume people are concerned about privacy, want subscription search, but but Google can just go, hey. Let's take a thousand engineers and a billion dollars, and let's put them out of business. And guess what? They can't do that now Yeah. Because the antitrust cops are on the beat for the first time. Kara Swisher · 48:36 Well, we Scott Galloway · 48:36 hope. And so you're gonna start to see more funding and more m and a. There's gonna be more funding, more new startups, more m and a in the ad tech, social media, search, even computer hardware space in the next twenty four months, and it's gonna be evidence of how... What a key component of capitalism competition is. And we're all gonna look back and think, why the hell did we not break up these guys sooner? Speaker · 49:01 I don't know. I'm... I gotta kinda push back. Scott Galloway · 49:03 You're skeptical. Kara Swisher · 49:03 I think the empire is gonna strike back. Think they're... I think they are. I do. I think that we we, you know, we got... We're around... We they... We're on the axle of politics that's gonna mess up this whole thing. Like, look at what's going on in every bill in the senate. Like, this is this is to their advantage. And they also can't... They also are liked by people. It's gonna be a much harder road to get to bring these people down in the way that people Scott Galloway · 49:25 can that. Impacting business. Even even Yep. There's... An interesting thing in that is, a lot of people will argue that the value of antitrust isn't in actually the antitrust action. It's in the scrutiny. And the fact that right now, Google, Facebook, and Apple, aren't... You know, they're being very careful right now. It's already having an impact on the ecosystem. Kara Swisher · 49:45 Fair to... That is a fair point. That is a fair point. You're a 100% We'll see what goes on. And I think one of the things you mentioned last week, Lina Khan, being hindered only by courts. And actually, there was a big Bloomberg story saying exactly the thing is that really what's gonna happen as as happened in Europe and elsewhere is these peep... These companies go to court and they win because of more conservative justices, jurors, jurists. And so that's really where the problem is. You know what I mean? Ultimately, they're gonna win elsewhere. It's gonna be a long slog and eventually, those with money and means often win. So we'll see where it goes. But I I forwarded you that story because you just mentioned it off the top of your head because you were brilliant. Scott Galloway · 50:26 And you know who I think started a really robust social network? Who? Peloton. Kara Swisher · 50:32 You keep saying that. I'm waiting. Scott Galloway · 50:34 The passion the passion and the demographic there and engagement, I think they could start a... Like, I think niche social media platforms are gonna start to emerge. And I think Peloton's gonna start Kara Swisher · 50:45 I think should be niche streaming networks too. Niche streaming networks. It's sort of like old cable coming back. Anyway, that's a very good prediction. We'll see where it goes. We're gonna be following that legislation very closely. And your Scott Galloway · 50:56 prediction... I like your... Yours is a little... I think I I like yours more. Yours is that TikTok and Microsoft will talk about... They're Bennefer. They're Ben and Jennifer thinking about getting back together. — Predictions segment ends — Kara Swisher · 51:05 Isn't that great? Are you happy about that? Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck, for those who are not paying attention, and I don't wanna speak to anybody anymore. Scott Galloway · 51:12 Them or is that their publicist dating? It's like, of us have a lot going on professionally. Kara Swisher · 51:17 Whole thing going on. No. I don't think they're that cynical. Come on. Like, look, they've both been through the ringer, especially him. Right? Like, he's he's like Scott Galloway · 51:25 He is. Kara Swisher · 51:25 Round after round of drinking Scott Galloway · 51:27 He and dick would better hair. I would like to roll. Now that John is gone, I would like to roll with Ben Affleck in And Kara Swisher · 51:34 he also... Who's he with before that beautiful actress? Anyway, he Jennifer Garner. So anyway, I am very happy. I don't care if it's fake. I like it. I like the Benifer. Like met Scott Galloway · 51:45 You know, he used to come up Ron Conway's angel investor things. Kara Swisher · 51:48 He was. Scott Galloway · 51:49 Remember just sitting there, Ty, speaking to him going, Jesus Christ, how did this guy get so looking? Good looking. Like, there are people this good looking? Yeah. He's very handsome. Kara Swisher · 51:59 Him and Matt Damon were around the tech sector for a short amount of time, so I dealt with him quite a bit. They didn't work out for them. In any case, they were trying to do all these different online things, online entertainment. Didn't a that? Scott Galloway · 52:14 They Kara Swisher · 52:15 Ashton Kutcher was in that one. Scott Galloway · 52:17 Oh, Ashton. That's right. Never mind. Kara Swisher · 52:18 Ashton Kutcher. Scott Galloway · 52:19 We're the new celebrities. Kara Swisher · 52:21 We are. Scott Galloway · 52:21 Don't you get celebrities calling you talking about Tuck? Kara Swisher · 52:23 No. Just you. Really know Scott Galloway · 52:26 a lot Kara Swisher · 52:26 of celebrities. I really don't. I don't. But anyway, erectile dysfunction. Listen, McAfee, we gotta go. We gotta go now. I got things to do. I've Scott Galloway · 52:45 got That guy knew to how roll. That guy knew how to Kara Swisher · 52:48 roll. Okay. Alright. Scott Galloway · 52:49 Rest in peace, my brother. Rest in Alright. Kara Swisher · 52:52 A little bit of, like, a little bit of note. He was... Had mental issues, and we should all be... Feel bad about what happened to him. Anyway, don't forget if there's did it again. Scott Galloway · 53:04 That was good. Kara Swisher · 53:05 That was good. Speaker · 53:06 That was good. That's why I make $40.50 Scott Galloway · 53:09 bucks an hour on Kara Swisher · 53:10 this I'm thing called glad you're not wearing a cheerleader outfit while you do that. Anyway, don't forget if there's a situation me. You can You troll me. I went to lunch in a place called Watch Hill, Rhode Island, and I got to view Taylor Swift's house from a long distance. Just so you know. That was my day of life. Scott Galloway · 53:25 That is just wrong on so many levels. Speaker · 53:27 There was just Kara Swisher · 53:28 so many things. You can't not Scott Galloway · 53:29 see it. It's enormous. Wrong and wrong. Kara Swisher · 53:31 It's like Scott Galloway · 53:31 when I went to Kenny Bungport, which is hugely overrated, and went on a boat tour, and they stopped for five minutes to look at the Bush Estate. I'm like, what Kara Swisher · 53:39 was one those most important towns? Scott Galloway · 53:41 What's... Kara Swisher · 53:41 Oh, Kennebunkport. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Okay. Speaker · 53:43 I know you meant Hynes. Scott Galloway · 53:43 I'm like, what level of bad decisions put me on a boat with 400 tourists from Boston in front spying on the bush Kara Swisher · 53:53 spying on Taylor Swift. I just drove by it. I just looked upon it. I love Taylor Swift. There's a song she... It's called Holiday House. Scott Galloway · 53:59 We approached it from the water side, and people were taking pictures. And I'm like Kara Swisher · 54:02 I would not do that. No. I just drove past it. It's a lovely town, and it's been written about It's the most expensive house in Rhode Island, so it's not... I'm not, like, giving up any information. She wrote a beautiful song you should all listen to called Holiday House about it, and it was owned by a Britney Spears. Scott Galloway · 54:16 She wrote No. Does she write Kara Swisher · 54:17 her own music? Scott Galloway · 54:18 I didn't know that. Kara Swisher · 54:19 Taylor Swift writes all her own music. I'm liking it. And you know what? Scott Galloway · 54:22 Taylor Swift. Kara Swisher · 54:22 It's Taylor Swift. Scott Galloway · 54:23 I'm talking about this. Kara Swisher · 54:24 Not until he else is doing rather well, and she's a wonderful artist. Anyway, people can disagree on her, but I love her. Anyway, Holiday House, you should listen to it. Don't forget, if there's a story in the news and you're curious about and wanna hear our opinion on, go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show. Scott, read us out. Scott Galloway · 54:43 Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie Intertaud engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. Or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Who would the dog rather roll with in Vegas? Speaker · 55:06 John McAfee or Chuck Todd? The answer is yes. [Ad break] Speaker · 55:54 than 15 cooking modes, including stone baked pizza mode, [Ad break] Scott Galloway · 56:08 online [Ad break]

Didn’t happen

Resolved 2023

Pivot #214 · Aired Jun 25, 2021

Funding, new startup formation, and M&A activity will increase in the ad tech, social media, search, and computer hardware sectors by June 25, 2023.

2022 saw a historic decline in VC fundingtechbrew.com

5 more sources

How we graded it

Counts as true if: Observable increase in venture funding, new company formation, and M&A deals in these four sectors over the 24-month period following the episode.

By June 25, 2023, the data show the opposite of Galloway's prediction: venture funding fell sharply (global VC funding down ~35% in 2022 and further ~38-53% in 2023 vs prior year), startup formation/financing contracted, and M&A deal counts declined across ad tech, big tech, and semiconductors despite a few mega-deals (Twitter/Musk, Broadcom/VMware) capturing headlines. Notably the Nvidia-Arm deal was blocked, further undercutting the hardware M&A thesis. The preponderance of sector and macro evidence over the June 2021-June 2023 window contradicts the predicted broad-based increase in funding, new startups, and M&A.

Researched and graded by AI on Oct 13, 2026

5 / 7