Scott Galloway · 1:05:02
The fact that, okay, while you were sleeping, you know, there was a million and $0.5 per day. I mean, just some of the grift that we're constantly seeing.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:12
You did very... One of our most popular social things was Scott listing all the grift, like, in the list. It was really pop... Just to bring it together.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:20
Well, but there's there's all sorts of great talking points. He did a trip to The Middle East. But the two biggest economies in The Middle East or the three biggest are Turkey, Israel, or Turkey... The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia and Israel. And he avoided Turkey and Israel because they're democracies, and they wouldn't figure... They could not give him grift. Even Turkey couldn't give him a seven forty seven. There's no fucking way Israel would bribe him or his sons. So he skipped those countries. He went to the countries where the the the supreme ruler was willing to give them a 4... A billion dollar golf course, a multi $100,000,000 Trump Tower, or a seven forty seven.
Kara Swisher · 1:06:00
He seems to have accepted it.
Scott Galloway · 1:06:01
That's what he picked up in those three countries. You know what he would have picked up in Israel? He would have picked up a trip to the border and and he's... That is... Of of the Gaza border, which he's not interested in. He's actually not interested in actual defense.
Kara Swisher · 1:06:12
Right. Or saving those... Anybody there or settling anything there. One of the things that was pretty heinous yesterday... It was it was a joke as you're noting this. The head of South Africa, made a joke. I I don't have a plane to give you. And then Trump goes, well, I'd take it if you did. Oh my god. By the way, that was he was spewing right wing conspiracy stuff.
Scott Galloway · 1:06:32
There's a genocide against white people?
Kara Swisher · 1:06:34
For the wrong country. It was for Congo, and even his conspiracy theories were inaccurate. Like, it was just full of nonsense. That was a white... And by the way, guess who I blame for that? Some... A famous South African who was one of his advisers.
Scott Galloway · 1:06:48
Oh, there you go.
Kara Swisher · 1:06:49
But, anyway, you're right. You're absolutely right. I don't think we have to create a Joe Rogan. There's... That's not what we want. I mean, you could say John Stewart sometimes or John Oliver. They're... It's... They're all over the place. We have to create, to me, a a three sixty on every single social platform where we're not necessarily coordinating. I think you can't make fetch happen with the left. You can't. But we're really giving messages that... And and drilling in, as Scott said, on grift, on give messages of hope and give messages of these guys are crooks over and over and over again. But coordination is not really a left thing to do.
Scott Galloway · 1:07:24
The way I presented it to the people I'm speaking to is that bad CMOs get a directive from the CEO and take budget from the brands and then impose a series of guidelines around, I want this type of advertising for this brand. And ultimately, they get fired because all the powers with the people making the money at the individual brands, they start to resent the CMO, and he or she gets fired. Good CMOs become a center of excellence in basically shared services where they say, I've done a bunch of work on media effectiveness, and if any of the brands wanna come to me, I will provide you with this data.
Kara Swisher · 1:07:56
That's right.
Scott Galloway · 1:07:56
I think we need to be... We need a group of people that says, we have some amazing candidates that are available for interviews. Up to you. Here they are, and we can make it seamless and easy for you. Every day, we're gonna send out a series of talking points and data that you may choose or may not choose to highlight in your stories. By the way, Smartless Pivot would like to promote you and promote certain episodes. Would you be interested in reciprocal deals that promote them? And we're also gonna promote the Midas Touch. Would you like to be part... All opt in, would you like to be part of a consortium that helps build each other's audience? So share... Almost like just a shared services where it becomes a pull as opposed to a push. But us lecturing at them saying, oh, you need to highlight this or talk this way. These people are gonna stick up the middle finger. These people have their own businesses to run.
Kara Swisher · 1:08:39
Yep. Exactly. That's the problem. That's the problem. Alright. One more quick break, and we'll be back for predictions.
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— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 1:10:55
Okay, Scott. Let's hear a prediction.
Scott Galloway · 1:10:58
Okay. So my prediction is that it goes back to a prediction I made in October of last year, and my prediction is The Empire Strikes Back. And I I just wanna be clear. My financial advice to anyone, especially a young person, is hope you go double platinum or sell your company. But just in case you don't, save three to 5% of your salary in a tax advantaged vehicle in low cost diversified index funds, not only in The US but across the world. And by the time you're my age, even if you haven't gone double platinum or sold your business, you're gonna be fine. And try to resist the temptation of believing you're smarter than everyone else and do stock picking and limit that to 20 or 30%. And I do think it's worthwhile to take some of your money and do stuff because it forces you to learn about the market, and also quite frankly, it's fun. Anyways, that's my big asterisk there. Having said that, my prediction is that Alphabet is gonna outperform the market. And if you look at Alphabet right now, they have so many incredible businesses. So the Google Cloud is a basically a $43,000,000,000 business going to 50, and if you put the same multiple on that business that Oracle gets, you get about a $400,000,000,000... A company worth about $400,000,000,000. YouTube, which is essentially the biggest streamer in the world, it does $54,000,000,000 in business. If you apply that Netflix multiple, you get a 650,000,000,000. So at $1,100,000,000,000. Waymo, in my opinion, let's not even count that, but I still think... I think that's worth a lot of money. I think the autonomous war is about to break out, and the leader is going to be Waymo. And if they spin that out, I think that'll get a huge valuation. So essentially, what you have is at the most conservative level, Google is being valued at about 800,000,000,000 to 1,000,000,000,000 or four to five times revenues. And Chipotle and Coca Cola trade at six times sales. So, you know, Cava trades at 10 times sales.
Kara Swisher · 1:12:46
So Cava's delicious.
Scott Galloway · 1:12:48
A $200,000,000,000 tech business that grew at 13% last year does not deserve a lower multiple than Coca Cola, a mature food and beverage firm with less than 50,000,000,000 in revenue that grew 3%. So if you do a sum of the parts analysis, it's undervalued. So the question is, well, why is it undervalued? And the the two reasons I think are one, the existential threat posed by OpenAI, which is a threat, but I think it's been overestimated. And two, the likelihood of antitrust and a breakup, which I believe would actually be accretive to shareholders if they were forced to spin some of these companies because they would be unlocked from this conglomerate tax that the company is paying right now. And my final point here is that right now, Google trades at a PE of 19. The S and P five hundred with its drawdowns trades at 24. So take an average company in the S and P, a P and G or a Dow. Like, I don't know what company sort of embodies the S and P, but those are both great companies. But any average, quote, unquote, average company in the S and P is not nearly as impressive, isn't growing nearly as fast, doesn't have nearly the margins of an alphabet.
Kara Swisher · 1:13:54
Alright. Sundar Pichai thanks you, but go ahead.
Scott Galloway · 1:13:57
Well, I really think this company of all of the big tech right now is the most undervalued, and it's being overly punished because of this existential threat of open AI and the notion of antitrust. One, I think is overstated. I think they are absolutely striking back in terms of AI. And two, I think antitrust
Kara Swisher · 1:14:14
Will be a good thing.
Scott Galloway · 1:14:15
If it... The law was passed and they had to spend something would actually be accretive to shareholders. There is no reason... Alphabet, at the end of the day, is a much more impressive company than your average S and P company, and yet it's trading at 18 or 19 versus 25. And it's traded at an average of 26 over the last five years. And even this year, even with its bump up yesterday, it's down 12% year to date. It's... This is an impressive company that in some, I think, is undervalued.
Kara Swisher · 1:14:43
So so interestingly, because Sudar Pichai is sort of never mentioned, you know, you give Satya lots of props. He's kind of a plotter. I know him very well. I've known him since he was a young product manager on a bunch of stuff at Google. He's kind of a plotter. He's always thought of as doesn't make decisions fast enough. He certainly isn't a hand waver about himself. You know, he's quite... He's just a nice guy. He's just a really nice guy. So he doesn't get the kind of props, and you're right. It's it's a difficult company to tell the story of because there's so many parts of it. So that's an interesting prediction. I think that's that's interesting. But I I will note, I use Google a lot less than I did. I don't know why. But you're right. They really... It's theirs to lose in many ways, but it's good they have competitors in it.
Scott Galloway · 1:15:22
Let me let me bring in a totally unrelated topic.
Kara Swisher · 1:15:24
Okay.
Scott Galloway · 1:15:24
So Sundar Pichai and Sachin Adelat, two guys who've created unbelievable market cap, hundreds of thousands of high paying jobs, incredible ecosystem, incredible shareholder value. Sundar is from Madurai, India, and Satya is from Hyderabad, India. The fact that we are not saying to every Indian golden visa for anyone, I can tell you, and I get... I'm being a racist here. I think the Indian population that immigrates to America is some of the most accretive, positive human capital flow in history. Walk around the halls of Stern. These Indian Americans, these people who decided to get, who are literally at point o 1% and got to IIT and then decided of all their options to come to America, they are a gift to America.
Kara Swisher · 1:16:15
At one point, it... The the head of Microsoft, Sundar, was a name that was floated as the head of Microsoft also because he hadn't gotten the CEO of Google job. But, yes, they're both really remarkable, citizens of The United States and also immigrants. You know, I've had lots of really interesting discussions with Sundar about the anti immigration Trump stuff, but he's a quiet leader. Well, I think he'll prob... You're right. There... It's there, so it's a really interesting prediction. My prediction is that at 10:00 tonight, Kara Swisher will be so happy because she's watching.
Scott Galloway · 1:16:45
Oh, you're gonna... I'm curious. You gotta text me and tell me what you think.
Kara Swisher · 1:16:47
I'll I'll text you at two in the morning because it's a movie. Anyway, because it'll be, like, a half an hour of previews, I'm sure. Anyway, I'm so excited. I've got the... I bought the popcorn advance and the drink, and I'm very excited to watch Mission Impossible Final Reckoning. Anyway, I feel like an ad for them, but I don't care. I love that movie. Anyway, I love the the series. Anyway, we wanna hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever is on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show, or call 85551 okay. That's the show. Thanks for listening to PIVOT. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel, which is growing handily. Scott, we're actually dark next Tuesday for Memorial Day, but we'll have a great episode of Stay Tuned with Preet in our feed. We'll be back next Friday.
— Predictions segment ends —
Scott Galloway · 1:17:31
Today's show is produced by Lara Nayman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, Kevin Oliver, and Corinne Ruff. Ernie or Todd engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Musaverio, Dan Chelan, and Kate Gallagher. Nishat Kurua is Vox Media's executive producer of podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Kara, enjoy the movies.
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