Guest · 1:09:02
To the front lines and now you're facing really similar numbers on both sides a couple 100,000 maybe less on the Russian side and the Ukrainian side so they're fairly evenly matched. Equipment wise Ukrainians probably have an advantage. They're getting more modern equipment from The US and allies, but it's not in great numbers. You're talking about a little over 100 tanks total. Just to give you a sense, the Russians have lost over 2,000 close to 3,000 tanks since this war began, right? So 100 tanks, even if they are more advanced than the Russian tanks, not a significant number here. So the thing that the Ukrainians are going to hope for is that they can make enough progress in the South to get to a critical city called Melitopol in Southern Ukraine and if they can get there, they can keep under fire control this entire so called land bridge to Crimea, this corridor highway that goes from Russia hugging the coast and all the way to Crimea and it's a critical resupply point for the Russians for Crimea because the bridge that they built after 2014 when they seized Crimea, the Kurds bridge has been attacked by the Ukrainians and it's still largely inoperable. The rail link that is essential for resupplying Crimea is still damaged. They're trying to repair it. They're saying that they're going to get it back up and running this summer and even they're limiting the number of trucks that are going through the bridge because they're concerned about car bombs being placed inside the trucks. So, if the Ukrainians can stop the land bridge from being used to resupply Crimea, you essentially isolate Crimea you and have enormous leverage whether you take it or not or try to take it which I think would be very difficult. Putin cannot afford for his troops, millions of people that are in Crimea to be isolated like this, so you may be able to get some concessions out of him, maybe a ceasefire if not a peace treaty if they get that far. If they don't, I think they're in a really tough position because even though the Russians are also exhausted, they've lost a lot of equipment, a lot of manpower, they don't really have capabilities to launch major offensives either, but you have essentially a war stalemating, not ending, but stalemating where there's still fighting going on but the front lines really aren't changing and that's a terrible situation for the Ukrainians because their economy is ruined, they're continuing to lose people, no one's going to invest in a country that is still in essentially a war zone and they really, really need to make progress in this offensive and I fear that it might be their last chance to really change the game in this war and try to bring it to a conclusion that's gonna be somewhat satisfactory for them.
Kara Swisher · 1:11:42
Yeah. Amazing. I have one last question. It's totally off the thing because you just mentioned China, but TikTok ban. Just... I'm I'm asking everyone. Necessary or useless?
Guest · 1:11:52
No, I think it's really important and I actually think that the debate around TikTok has been very misguided because so much of it has been focused on data. Look, this is not a privacy issue. TikTok collects very limited data about you, by the way, most of it is public and if China wants to get access to data on you, they've got numerous ways from their cyber espionage operations or just going out and buying from data brokers that will sell you just about anything you want. So to me, it's not a privacy issue or spying on Americans issue, it is a media control issue. To me, TikTok is a media company. Yes, the content is user produced, the videos, but it's curated, curated both by the algorithms and humans, and they're deciding not just what to show to you, but what not to show in terms of the moderation. I'll give you one example, a friend of mine was telling me he was seeing a video that someone posted of a BBC clip talking about the war in Ukraine and then when he went to check it a few hours later, it disappeared. Well, it disappear because the user took it down because TikTok got a copyright notice from BBC that didn't want it to be reposted or was it taken down because TikTok does not like to show sort of the fair view of this war? You don't know and that's a huge problem and look, we have media ownership rules in this country. This is not a First Amendment issue. You may recall that when Rupert Murdoch in the 80s was trying to buy the Fox Network, he had to become an American citizen because even as an Australian citizen, an allied country, he was not allowed to own a major media company. We have media ownership rules in this country even for Americans where FCC will tell you if you want to buy a number of radio stations or TV stations in this country where you will have more than 40% of Americans viewing it, you're not going be allowed to do that, even as an American. Well here you have TikTok that by their own admission says that half of the country is using the platform and it's owned by a foreign company that has enormous influence by law from the Chinese Communist Party, which is an adversary. You can't allow that to happen. Imagine if CCP company, a Chinese company own Fox News or own CNN or own New York Times. We would never let that happen. So that to me is a real issue with TikTok.
Kara Swisher · 1:14:05
So what happens? What... That they could use this as a ban saying foreign ownership, that's the way they should go versus first amendment or it's very hard to do this ban.
Guest · 1:14:14
Well, Mark Warner, who both of us know, Kara, has this restrict bill in the Senate that is bipartisan bill supported by a lot of Republicans and Democrats. And it's not targeting TikTok, it is saying that the Department of Commerce, the Secretary of Commerce can decide when you look at the four major adversary countries Russia, China, Iran, North Korea I think they threw Venezuela and Cuba in it as well but if a company affiliated with those countries presents a major risk based on certain criteria that they define, that they can prevent, they can't necessarily ban the app, They can't prevent Americans from going to the TikTok website and looking at videos. But what they can do is they can prevent American companies, American businesses from doing business transactions with TikTok. So Apple, Google will have to take it off their app store. Any advertisers that are paying TikTok today will no longer be able to do that, so you essentially dramatically impact their business, not just in The US, I think, but overall in Europe because I think American advertising really drives a big chunk of their revenue from what I understand. So, you're not going to have censorship but you're going to massively impact its availability in The US and you probably will not have 150,000,000 Americans using it and I think that's the right process where you're not singling them out because you can apply this to Huawei, which is another big concern for us. You can apply it to Kaspersky, a Russian cybersecurity company. So need a tool like this, which really doesn't exist today, of how do we regulate a foreign company that is tightly tied to a major adversary from having so much impact on our daily lives.
Kara Swisher · 1:15:59
Alright. This is fascinating. I can talk to you forever. It's really interesting. Anyway, Dmitry, you're fantastic. We're gonna have you back again. Again, you can find more from Dmitry on his Geopolitics Decanted podcast, and I really appreciate it. You're a really good thinker.
Scott Galloway · 1:16:14
That was great, Dmitry. Thank you very much.
Guest · 1:16:16
Thanks so much, guys.
Kara Swisher · 1:16:17
Alright, Scott. He's smart, isn't he?
Scott Galloway · 1:16:19
I nominate him to be the head of a new regulatory body regulating AI.
Kara Swisher · 1:16:23
He's also an incredibly successful technologist. You know? No.
Scott Galloway · 1:16:28
He struck me as very pragmatic, very empathize. I I I I really hope that guy gets a role in government. That's who you wanna see in government.
Kara Swisher · 1:16:36
Yeah. He's really interesting and also can explain it. That's what I like about him. I like Dimitri quite a lot. Anyway, we'll have one more quick break, and we'll be back for predictions.
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— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 1:17:58
Okay, Scott. Let's hear some predictions.
Scott Galloway · 1:18:01
I think, Kara, in the next kinda... Within sixty or ninety days, we're gonna see some fairly prominent Democratic elected officials announce that they are running for president. And it's gonna shock everybody, and the party line so far has been no. President Biden is running again, and we respect that, and he's been the right guy. But I think a couple things have happened. The first is just the context is every one of these individuals to put up with the shit they have to put up with, to put their families what they put them through, has since the age of four looked in the mirror and said, hello, madam president or mister president. They're all they all believe that the the sole vision of the universe is for them to be in the Oval Office. And for many of them, you know, the... It's... This environment is pretty ripe, in terms of a weak Republican field, and also the the other thing that's happened here is that RFK Jr. Has announced his candidacy, and right out of the gates he got 12 or 14% in the polls. And then the other candidate, Marion Williamson, is already, like, polling real numbers. And I just think you're gonna see... And, also, the other the other thing that's happened here is representative Conner came out and said that age is an issue, And and his... That statement was kind of what I'll call warmly received or was a lot of head nodding. And so I think a combination of just sheer ambition, the fact that going against the party or running against president Biden won't be seen as as disloyal or ageist as it might have been seen sixty days ago. I think you're gonna see someone is gonna someone is gonna burst the dam here.
Kara Swisher · 1:19:43
Give me who?
Scott Galloway · 1:19:43
I don't I don't know. I'm curious what you think.
Kara Swisher · 1:19:46
Newsome.
Scott Galloway · 1:19:46
Well, he's clearly running. Yeah. I mean, just hasn't announced. He does... You you don't you don't spend money. You don't spend donors' monies to go into to other states and talk about freedom unless you're running for president. There just isn't a whole lot of benefit to governing California for that.
Kara Swisher · 1:20:01
He likes to travel.
Scott Galloway · 1:20:03
But I think it's becoming... It's getting too ripe. When they see RFK junior, who is a a weird anti vaxxer saying it's linked to autism, get 12% in the polls, I think you're gonna see somebody say, look. Yeah. I loved president Biden.
Kara Swisher · 1:20:20
The person who's hamstring is Kamala Harris. She can't do anything.
Scott Galloway · 1:20:22
Well, MARP. Vice president Harris is... She... In my opinion, she's she's demonstrated that she has no... She does not have the the popularity to be president. I think the person that's hamstrung in the cabinet is mayor Pete, who would probably run a pretty good campaign. But, anyways, I think you're gonna see one person, and then you know what? Three or four are gonna are gonna pile in and say Speak it should be an open primary.
Kara Swisher · 1:20:44
Speaking of Newsom, I will make my prediction. Feinstein, they're gonna get her to step down because the GOP now says it'll block a move to temporarily replace her, which, of course, they would do, and Democratic aides say her absence stops the committee.
Scott Galloway · 1:20:56
What what a shocker that they did... That they don't want the Democrats to be able to point their point judges.
Kara Swisher · 1:21:02
Yeah. I know. Yeah. Of course not. I would... Honestly, I was like, good job, Mitch. You you did your job. So now they can't issue subpoenas, for example, in the possible investigation into Clarence Thomas. So she's gotta go, and they gotta get her out. And guess who's appointing her replacement? Gavin Newsom. So maybe he'll appoint himself. Who knows?
Scott Galloway · 1:21:19
Who do you think? So beyond governor Newsom, who would you say is the first big figure to say
Kara Swisher · 1:21:24
Newsom. Newsom's the only one with a set set that'll do it. The rest will follow quickly in his drift. That's what... Newsom. I can't think of another person. Newsom. You know, the others will
Scott Galloway · 1:21:33
Senator Klobuchar?
Kara Swisher · 1:21:34
No. She's too much of a of a of a team player. No. He'll do it. He'll do it. And they'll let... Then they'll follow him immediately. Just for some quick news, and... Because we gotta go soon is SpaceX's Starship rocket exploded above the Gulf Of Mexico on Thursday minutes after lifting off from a launch pad in South Texas. The spacecraft failed to reach orbit, but it was not a fatal failure, but, you know, this is a very complex rocket. But, it failed it failed to lift off in the way they needed it to just for news news' sake. Anyway, we'll talk about that maybe next week, but until then, we wanna hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show, or call 85551 Okay, Scott. That's the show. We'll be back next week for more.
— Predictions segment ends —
Scott Galloway · 1:22:20
Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Andertaut engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Barros and Miel Silberio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. How's your relationship with your father? Not good? Hello, ladies. Hello, ladies.
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