Guest · 53:41
It's almost always a suicide mission.
Kara Swisher · 53:43
Well, you have Robert Kennedy junior.
Scott Galloway · 53:44
Yeah. What about RFK junior? What impact, if any, will he have?
Guest · 53:47
Well, here's the great thing about RFK junior. And I say that, you know, sort of in shock, honestly. In the Democratic primary, I was a little worried that the Kennedy name would have a knock on effect, especially with the much older voters, older boomers, silent generation folks, my parents' age. But now that he's gonna run as an independent, if you look at the profile, what is the profile? Crypto, anti vaxx, conspiracy theories, social media censorship, wokeism. He basically now... I mean, they... The... Steve Bannon and Joe Rogan and the rest of these people who elevated RFK junior when they thought he was an... Elon, when they thought he was a Democrat. Now Elon... With him running as an independent, there's a real possibility that he's going to end up siphoning more Republican leaning independents away from Trump than than he would have ever been able to harm Biden as a Democrat.
Kara Swisher · 54:44
Which is why they're attacking him. Trump is attacking him.
Guest · 54:46
Which is why they... And you notice Trump kept absolutely silent or or was... He actually said a couple of, like, vaguely friendly things about him in the very beginning, but they they discovered that the monster that was hatched in Steve Bannon's laboratory has escaped and is trying to kill them all. So I am... I'm delighted I'm delighted to see Robert Kennedy in the race as an independent now because it will draw from Trump. It will hurt Trump.
Kara Swisher · 55:10
I have one last question. The Lincoln project was formed with a goal of defeating Trump in 2020. Good job. You're still at it in 2024. You said he has a distinct possibility of winning. Explain the stakes for us, and does the war in Israel factor in, or is it too early?
Guest · 55:29
The war in Israel does factor in, Kara. It is a it is it is a... It is one of these moments where, to their credit, the Democratic Party got them... Got on message right away. They understood that Hamas and the Palestinians had to be bifurcated in the in the messaging. They got that quickly. The Republicans have tried to conflate the two, and it's a really difficult position for them to be in right now because they've loved the position for years. We are the Israel party. We are the Israel party. And they they can't quite hold that with Joe Biden, you know, being so staunch about it, planning a trip over there apparently as the reporting is... Has out today, and really standing up and really taking a leadership role as he's done in Europe with Ukraine, as he's done in The Pacific. And, again, this one, as an ex Republican foreign policy guy, I've been extraordinarily happy about that. But look. You know, we we... On election day of twenty twenty, I really wanted to go write more books and watch my kids have kids and do anything else but worry about Donald Trump every day because I'd done it for a long time at that point. And we saw he was gonna resist the legitimate results of the election. And then on 01/06, when we saw the attack on the Capitol, it it it it made me understand that the mission of defeating Trump had been one part of it, but defeating his movement and this authoritarian nationalism was not gonna go away quickly or easily or smoothly, and and you had to stay in the fight. And so we won a lot of races in '22 on pro democracy grounds. We went after candidates who were gonna make a big difference, secretaries of state and governors who could change the battlefield in '24 if they were in Republican hands. And now we're full on. Once again, this is this is my final campaign. One way or the other, this is it for me. And I... And and believe me, I want to be done, and I wanna beat him again.
Scott Galloway · 57:27
So a thesis and then a question. And the thesis is that 45 states have already voted. 159,000,000 people voted in 2020. This election of the most powerful man in the world is gonna come down to 50,000 people, mostly women, small number of counties, and four to five states.
Guest · 57:47
That's that's our theory of the case, Scott. Between six and nine states are on our target list, including places you can imagine, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. We at the Lincoln Project, you know, we we make great media. We make great ads, but we have a really smart targeting operation underneath it all with very, very bright math people, and it's called the game of small numbers. We're not trying to move a million voters in Wisconsin. I'm trying to move 80,000 Republican Dobbs related women in Brown County. I'm not trying to win all of millions of Arizonans. I'm trying to shift about 35,000 people in Maricopa County, mostly women, trending slightly younger in in Arizona. We have a model to pursue, and and you're absolutely right, Scott. It's gonna come down. It's gonna be close again. It's gonna be the last minute again, and and it is gonna be a fight to the very, very, very finish.
Scott Galloway · 58:44
And how does it look right now amongst that smaller group of peep... I realize that the media has to run national polls to try and pretend it matters. It doesn't. Across that small niche of voters, how does it look here and now?
Guest · 58:59
The good news is that in 2020, when we modeled this sort of same targeting system, between 38% of these voters were persuadable. These Republican voters were persuadable away from Trump. After Dobbs and after January 6, it... The number grew between 711% depending on the states. So we have a much bigger pool to tap this time. The voter intensity on the right is is very high. That concerns me. Democrats are still a little bit scattered, and they're still like this mumbling about a primary or Joe Biden quitting. None of that's gonna happen, but they still have to settle down for what the real fight is going to be. They didn't want another Biden Trump fight, but that's what they're gonna have to fight. So it's a... It's gonna be a hard race.
Kara Swisher · 59:45
It is interesting that Carrie Lake has suddenly calmed down quite a bit around election denier.
Guest · 59:50
Isn't that interesting? She backed up abortion. Well, even Ron DeSantis has backed up on abortion. They understand the dog caught the car on Dobbs, and it has been a disaster for them politically.
Kara Swisher · 1:00:01
Yeah. It's interesting. Just an update. Jim Jordan has won over several key skeptics in the conference. I think you were a 100% right. Mike, Rogers, Ken Calvert, and now Anne Wagner of Missouri, who called Jordan a nonstarter for speaker last week, said she would support him. So it looks like yes.
Guest · 1:00:19
Well, somebody got a committee.
Kara Swisher · 1:00:22
Yeah. Well, then we'll leave it at that, but he's doing it.
Guest · 1:00:25
Thank you so much for
Scott Galloway · 1:00:26
having me on. Thank you, Rick. Thanks for your good work.
Kara Swisher · 1:00:29
We really appreciate it. And we'll check back in with you as we move along in the in the system since this is your last campaign.
Guest · 1:00:35
Happy to join you anytime.
Kara Swisher · 1:00:36
Alright. Thanks, Rick.
Scott Galloway · 1:00:37
Thanks, Rick. Thanks, Scott. Thanks, Kara. A quick note on Rick, who I'd... I think I think personally, Rick has the best Twitter feed in politics. I find it Yeah.
Kara Swisher · 1:00:49
It's funny.
Scott Galloway · 1:00:50
His ability to just to just puncture to the right kind of the the heart of the issue is incredible with humor. And I was on Rick's podcast, the Enemies List, and we were just talking and sorta... We started talking about our youth. And I didn't know this about him. When he was in high school, his father was in a terrible car accident and was in and out of a coma for several years. And he went on to talk about how all of these these men kinda came out of the woodwork, his father's partners, neighbors, and were just there for him. And he got very emotional. And it was such a lovely moment. This guy who's like, you know, Rick's been so successful, and he's such a power player. He's such a player, and he was... You know, you could just see him go back to the age of 16. I think he's a really, a really decent man.
Kara Swisher · 1:01:43
Yeah. Alright, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back for your prediction.
[Ad break]
— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 1:02:39
Okay, Scott. Let's hear your fantastic prediction.
Scott Galloway · 1:02:42
My prediction. So I don't know if you saw, but an activist investor starboard showed up at News Corp.
Kara Swisher · 1:02:48
Yeah. News Corp. I was curious.
Scott Galloway · 1:02:50
Yeah. These assets have now declined to the point where they're in distressed territory, but they still have really amazing cash flows. The third the third shoe is about to drop. You're gonna see an activist, I think, in the next thirty to ninety days.
Kara Swisher · 1:03:05
Oh, Scott, what do you know? I feel like you know something.
Scott Galloway · 1:03:07
No. I I I don't. But the best way to predict the future is to make it. I think you're gonna see an activist at Warner Brothers Discovery. The stock is now down to a point where I think there's a lot of upside as Zaslav to his credit is reducing debt, and the assets here are trading at about, even including the debt, about half of what they paid they paid AT and T for the asset. So I think I think that there's blood in the water. People see these assets have declined to a level where there's a decent amount of upside with not too much downside. Anyways, activist investor takes a large position and advocates for board seats and for Warner Brothers to, be more stringent around cost cutting. And you gotta give Saslov credit. He has done a good job cost cutting, but also to more specifically get rid of the the melting ice cube, which is the cable asset sooner rather than later. So activist investor in the next thirty to ninety days at Warner Brothers Discovery.
Kara Swisher · 1:04:06
So what happens? Because they do have control. What happens?
Scott Galloway · 1:04:09
I don't think they do. I... It's not a... Fox is 39% of the voting shares are controlled by the family, which basically means they have control.
Kara Swisher · 1:04:20
Yeah. News Corp. News Corp. News Corp, you mean.
Scott Galloway · 1:04:22
Yeah. I've learned the hard way. Banging your head against a wall with a company that is dual class shareholder, and the same is true of News Corp. However, at Warner Brothers Discovery, something that stanky basically... Now I'm getting really into the weeds here, was basically the Newhouse family, which owned preferred shares in, I think it was A and E or a component of the Warner Brothers discovery... Wind up of discovery, extracted an additional payment because Stankey, to his credit, realized that if he went single class of shares, the stock would likely be worth more because it would be, quote, unquote, you could put it into play. Anyways, it is about to be put into play because somebody with a couple billion dollars, and I have a few names in mind, is gonna show up and say, there's 40 to 60% of upside here in the next twelve months with probably 10 to 20% downside. The stock's at about $10.50. And as they continue to decrease the debt through cost cuts, which the activists will encourage greater cost cuts, the equity value will go up. Anyways, a long winded way of saying activist investor shows up at Warner Brothers Discovery in the next thirty to ninety days.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:34
Okay. Alright. Wow. Okay. And also... But... And what happens to Murdoch? Nothing?
Scott Galloway · 1:05:39
No. This is what happens. The way you the way you foam and change at a company is when you can make... You can make a, you can do a a proxy or you can bid for the whole company. They don't... No one has... Wants to show up with that check right now. And two, the other way is you show up at the annual meeting and you try and present a new slate of directors and you get board seats. And the problem is the voting shares. They have 39% of the voting shares. And when you have 39... And in a in a annual election, only 80% of the shares show up. People don't send in their votes, so they're sitting under... They're sitting in some trust somewhere. So about 80% of the shares show up, which means that all you need is 40% to win. They... They've already won. So this is this is a lot of finger pointing and anger.
Kara Swisher · 1:06:28
Well, the only thing is he didn't do that merger that he wanted to do because of pressure from shareholders. He had, when he wanted to merge News and... News Corp and Fox last year or earlier this year.
Scott Galloway · 1:06:38
Yeah. That's a fair point.
Kara Swisher · 1:06:40
He gave it up in January.
Scott Galloway · 1:06:41
That's a fair point.
Kara Swisher · 1:06:41
So he didn't get to do what he wanted there.
Scott Galloway · 1:06:44
Yep. I don't know. I I bet I would have thought the next one. I'm shocked. When I saw activist, I thought, oh, finally, Warner Brothers, and I saw it was News Corp. I'm like, News Corp or Fox?
— Predictions segment ends —
Kara Swisher · 1:06:56
Alright. Okay. You think Warner Brothers? Interesting. Okay. Well, that's a good prediction. You you did a little shifteroo on me there. Anyway, I like it. We wanna hear from you. Send us your questions about Business Tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551 Scott, that's the show. My voice will be back by Thursday, I promise, because I know how much it annoys you to even question possibilities of illness or sickness. And we'll be back on Friday for more. But by the way, I'm gonna outlast you no matter what, even though I'm older than you. Let's be clear about that. Anyway, please read us out.
Scott Galloway · 1:07:32
Today's show was produced by Lara Naaman, Joey Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Indra taught engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Mils Severio, and Gatti McBain. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen listen to podcasts. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Kara, have a great rest of the week.
[Ad break]
