Guest · 58:59
But I think he's already been seeing a downsizing of, of the Trump Organization, and I... That may continue either way. You know, they sold the old post office. They sold the golf course here up in New York. They've been selling some other assets. I think that that has been quietly going on in the background. Not a lot of people are talking about it, but I think you could also see that as he needs to raise money.
Kara Swisher · 59:20
For doing things,
Guest · 59:21
Russ?
Guest · 59:21
Yeah. I mean, I think Sue covered it pretty well there. The big... Look, I think if he doesn't get reelected, the first question will be, will he still have some marketing value? Will there still be a MAGA? Right now, he's basing all these licensing deals on two things. Saudi Arabia seeming to want to be in business with him to get money to him. Will that still continue if he's not in the White House? I think that's an open question.
Kara Swisher · 59:47
No. No is the answer to that, Russ.
Guest · 59:49
I think you're right. You have to wonder the same about the Kushner deal, right, as well. Will these still seem like the best choice for a billion dollars? No again. Right? And then I think the secondary question is, so far he's basically monetizing the MAGA movement. He's monetizing this idea that they're persecuted, that he's their only chance for success. Will he remain the leader of that movement? Will there be something there to monetize? That's the secondary question. That has not generated anywhere close to the licensing money that he was receiving like ten years ago, which some years was 25,000,000 and $30,000,000 a year. This is kind of small ball by comparison, but it's money. I think if he's not reelected, again, the be judgment is harder to escape than if he is. And I think either way, you're gonna see problems at some of the properties continue. 40 Wall Street is not doing great. It's always been up and down for him. The golf courses in The UK have been money eaters. He's trying to develop the Doral Golf Course in Miami. Whether that will happen, whether he can put together the financing to make that happen, think is very important to him being able to hang on to this assembly of golf courses. But the best thing he's got going right now is the thing, again, he doesn't run. He got pushed into this investment that's run by its two buildings, in San Francisco, one in New York that's run by Furnado Real Estate Investment Trust. They run very well. They kick off a lot of money and that is still the source of most of his wealth in terms of real estate businesses and that will continue either way. Although he can't tap into that, he's just at the behest of the majority partner in that.
Kara Swisher · 1:01:25
And what will you two focus on if he becomes president? Where do you find the story?
Guest · 1:01:32
I don't know what the next thing is. I mean, we're gonna... I think if he'd become... We keep reporting. I'm not quite sure where, though. I mean, we're still looking at some stuff right now. I guess to be continued on that one. Yeah.
Guest · 1:01:43
I mean, I think we'd watch for the kind of things we're talking about. Saudi Arabia seems to all of us is interested because he's going to be present. So if he is, will there be more of those kinds of things? And I think they've sort of acknowledged they're taking down the walls this time around. They're not going to be concerned about appearances. And he'll be a lame duck president from the first day. So I think it's safe to say they would probably be going after things that might look dicey to us.
Guest · 1:02:07
Right. There's gonna be a lot going on behind the curtains, I think. Just as In
Kara Swisher · 1:02:10
front of the curtains. They don't even care anymore.
Guest · 1:02:12
In front.
Kara Swisher · 1:02:12
Yeah. Scott, last quick question.
Scott Galloway · 1:02:14
One of the things I really appreciate about your work is that you both really did the work. Reading through, some of your work, I just can't imagine how much time you're in a conference room with bad coffee trying to string together tax filings and really connect the dots. Really do appreciate that you did the work. And also that the New York Times would support you or support... Provide you with the resources to do that kind of in-depth work. My question is around Donald Trump media. 80,000,000 shares, $23 a share, you know, one... Whatever is that, 1,840,000,000 worth of of value in those shares. My understanding is he hasn't sold any, and that would come up from on a filing if he had sold them. But if I were him, I would be writing calls. I'd be doing prepaid variable forwards. I would be borrowing on margin like crazy to diversify. Do you have any sense of or any evidence around what he is doing to diversify, monetize the... Those shares?
Kara Swisher · 1:03:17
But you left outrun by that well known tech executive, Devin Nunes. But go ahead. Sorry. Let me just tell you, this podcast makes more money by far than than Trump media, but go ahead.
Guest · 1:03:30
Yeah. I I think in a story I
Guest · 1:03:32
This is Russ's favorite... Run, Russ. Run. This is his favorite thing.
Guest · 1:03:35
Well, I I think in a story I compare... Their revenue does not compare favorably to a single Chick fil A restaurant. Right? They're They really, or a McDonald's, it's just not a real
Guest · 1:03:46
You said a Fuze store once Yeah,
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Guest · 1:03:47
a real company. And they don't really have a business plan that makes sense. They're gonna stream videos that are available for free elsewhere on their platform because they're at risk of being shut down. But to answer your question, Scott, I don't have any intelligence on other ways he might be trying to monetize those shares at this point. I think it's an excellent question. I don't know that there's any way to, Certainly no public way to see that right now, but we'll be trying to watch out for that. If you see any hint of it, please let us know.
Guest · 1:04:16
We may be sifting through court filings one day looking for what he's done.
Kara Swisher · 1:04:20
You absolutely will be. Also, in the crypto, the sneakers, whatever you have. That's one of the great things here, so many court filings. Anyway, once again, the book is Lucky Loser, How Donald Trump Squandered His Father's Fortune Created the Illusion of Success. I took it home. I read it. It's so good. It's... I I love accounting. I hate to tell you, but I love accounting, but this is a really great reporting accomplishment that you two have done. And I'm, I'm excited to see more even though I'm not excited to see a grifter continue to grift, but you've done a great job.
Guest · 1:04:48
Thank you very much.
Guest · 1:04:49
Thank you.
Scott Galloway · 1:04:50
Nice to meet you. Thanks for your good work.
Kara Swisher · 1:04:51
Isn't that fast? I love reporters like that. They're such good reporters.
Scott Galloway · 1:04:55
Well, they really... If you read that initial article when I talked about taxes, it's like, okay. This... You know, this... For me, that article kinda spoke to the importance of of, quite frankly, journalism that has some funding because it must have just... Some some editor, they came in and said, we can get through this. But to do an accurate job of this, it's gonna take us months in a conference room with forensic accountants. Right. And there just aren't many newspapers that have the resources to greenlight that.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:24
Yep. Yep. Great reporters. Great topic. Alright, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
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— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 1:07:28
Okay, Scott. Let's hear a prediction.
Scott Galloway · 1:07:31
Well, just just in light of... I I have a real one, but in light of what our guests just talked about, I would bet we're gonna find out. I wouldn't be surprised if we find out that the entire... Or a big part of the campaign or a big part of his wealth is while Trump didn't sell any stock, I wouldn't be surprised if he is doing covered calls against his 80,000,000 shares. So just to give you a sense for that, that's when you essentially write a call against a share you own. And it's effect... It's not it's not risk free because if you wanna maintain your ownership in the stock, you you essentially say, okay. The stock today is at $24. I can sell calls expiring next week at, say, 25 for 66¢. And if I own 80,000,000 shares, I can get $60,000,000 in premium. Now if it skyrockets to 30, I either have to sell shares or buy them back at a loss. But to just the kind of cash generation short term he can create from an ownership stake of 80,000,000 shares in a volatile stock is just extraordinary. So be clear. Just because he's not selling shares doesn't mean he's not taking risks and making a lot of money. And I... I'm very curious to see if and when it comes out, what he was doing with those shares to try and monetize that stake or borrowing against it or what have you. Anyways, that's my my prediction. My prediction is we are at a category three hurricane of misinformation. It's about to go in the next three weeks to categories five and six. Increased social media activity, AI generated content that is super easy to spin up all sorts of misinformation, a polarized media environment. We're just gonna see... What's going on with FEMA right now is an Easter parade compared to the... Or a dumpster fire compared to the nuclear mushroom cloud of deepfake videos. I think we're gonna see videos of violence at polling stations that are deepfakes trying to suppress the turnout. It's just this... The the platforms have done what I'll call a glancing kind of jazz hands attempt to do away with this. You know, Musk is all in on misinformation. He wants to let it rain free. It's gonna go crazy the next three or four weeks. Probably, I don't know if it's fair to say from both sides, but you're just gonna see so many bad actors, so many bots. I mean, if you're if you're trying to discredit somebody or create misinformation that suppresses turnout in certain swing states or certain districts that you think are leaning away that's against your interest, The ability to spin up accounts and misinformation using AI and then test it and see what is in fact going viral, what's creating the most confusion, the most polarization, it's just so... I don't call it easy, but the potential is so immense now that I just think you're gonna see just just a, you know, 10 millibars of rain of misinformation. The first real... Anyways, the prediction word salad here is we're about to see the first real serious externality of AI, and that is a level of misinformation and fake accounts creating polarization and confusion like we have never seen. And here's the thing. The day after the election, the platforms are gonna feel really bad about what happened after the election. But get ready, folks. You know, there is a storm of misinformation coming over the next, twenty days.
Kara Swisher · 1:10:58
Yeah. I would agree. I would agree. It's terrible what's happened, and I don't think these companies have learned a thing from last year... Last, last elections... Presidential election cycle. In fact, I think what they've learned is to go and hide and not help our society have a better election. I think they have no response. They have... They've decided no responsibility is the best thing to do. And it's... And, again, as usual, they, you know, they meet my already low expectations of what they should do. Yeah. And as the Trump media stock, it is going up. It's up 50% now again because they think he's gonna win again. It goes down when they don't think he's gonna win. It was down at 13. It's up at 24, which is a lot in the last month. I guess it's gone up 30% in the last five days, close to 50.
Scott Galloway · 1:11:44
From 46 to 12 back to 24. I mean, it's
Kara Swisher · 1:11:48
just 50%.
Guest · 1:11:49
Talk about volatile.
Kara Swisher · 1:11:50
I know. What a volatile stock. We'll see. We'll see what happens. In any case, it's not a business, just so you're aware. Whatever. It's it's an indicator of how people feel about him and his chances of being president. Anyway, it's still a bad business even if he gets to be president, and you will get... You will lose your money, MAGA. Sorry. And he will take it from you. That is a really great prediction, Scott. And I, unfortunately, think you're it's already happening. Anyway, we wanna hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551 Okay, Scott. That's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more pivot. Can you read us out?
— Predictions segment ends —
Scott Galloway · 1:12:26
Today's show was produced by Lara Niemann, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intertaide engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Miss Severio. Yushak Kruwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care. Have a great weekend.
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