Guest · 57:59
Struggles, for example. And maybe that's because it was a colony for so long. You know? So they've always been good at organizing themselves to to create a nationwide protest movement. They've always been rather less good at creating state institutions, which are notoriously weak and still... And and in some cases still are. You know? But but it's it's that kind of networked, you know, you know, the the volunteer groups who call their cousins in America and say, you know, could you help us with this project? And and their and and their ability to motivate people inside and outside the country to help them that has given them this completely unquantifiable advantage that the Russians don't have. It's not like the Russians can call on, you know, Sergey Brin and and say, come home and and work for us because he's not going.
Kara Swisher · 58:48
He's not.
Guest · 58:49
And that turns out to, as I said, to have been a big advantage. I mean, it certainly explains... Even if it doesn't explain... Even it doesn't help them win or take back all of their territory, you know, in the next six months, it certainly explains why the country still exists today.
Scott Galloway · 59:03
How would you assess the West's support for Ukraine? And, you know, what are your views on it? Do you have a message for the West?
Guest · 59:12
So it's really impressive what we've done so far, and it's a lot more than anybody had ever expected. That's also a reflection of the fact that the Ukrainians just impressed people. You know, Zelenskyy was good at communicating, but it wasn't just him. It was the, you know, the the, you know, the Ukrainians fought back, you know, at Mariupol, for example, at the very... At the, you know, early part of the war and in Kyiv. And because of that, you've had this galvanizing effect on Europe, on America, you know, and our willingness to give them weapons and help them is extraordinary. I would say one thing, which is that we always seem to be kind of three or four beats behind the situation. You know? Eventually, we will give them... You know, we said we wouldn't give them HIMARS, either these long range missiles and long range artillery, you know, and then we did. You know? We've said we wouldn't give them airplanes, and now, actually, they're beginning to get some airplanes from from European countries, and we may eventually do that too. And it would help if we would give them more immediately because then we could maybe end the war more quickly. I mean, the danger of this war, obviously, is that it drags on, which is not good for them, not good for us, not good for anybody. And having a decisive plan to end it, you know, soon, isn't something I'm feeling from Washington. I mean, Washington remains, Washington, meaning the White House, the Pentagon, lots of different people, remains nervous about the idea that the Ukrainians could win. In other words, could push the Russians out of at least their territory since February 22... Taken since February 2022, but in more than that territory taken since 2014. And there seems to... There's there's still a lot of nervousness, and I think that that's that's been a a kind of drag on the war, and there's a danger that that nervousness could extend the war.
Kara Swisher · 1:00:59
So they don't want them to win too much. They just want them to take
Guest · 1:01:03
They seem to not... Nobody says it quite like that, and nobody will ever say that on the record. You know? And even off the record, they don't really say that. But, yeah, it's pretty clear that they're they're they're nervous about what that would mean. And I think that's wrong because, again, for the... Now I think I've said this another time, it's a it's a political struggle as well as a military one, and the Russians have to be convinced that they can't win and that there's no opportunity for them to win.
Scott Galloway · 1:01:26
To to your point, and and I don't wanna put words in your mouth, so I'll make a statement, and you tell me if you validate or nullify it. The best way to end a war is to win it. And we keep getting... We keep saying no tanks, then tanks. I mean, shouldn't we shouldn't we just skip to the part where we do what's required to to to to end slash win this war?
Guest · 1:01:43
Well, that that's that's what I'm arguing. Yes. I mean, I think that's exactly right. If those are the words you wanna put in my mouth, those are fine. So...
Scott Galloway · 1:01:52
Thanks, Anne.
Kara Swisher · 1:01:52
So, Anne, last question. When does that happen? What is the time from from your being there and assessing this counteroffensive in your article?
Guest · 1:02:00
When does the counteroffensive start?
Kara Swisher · 1:02:01
No. When does when does this end for peep... For Russia? Do you see... Is there is there a path?
Guest · 1:02:06
You know, The US has given the Ukrainians, you know, training and preparation for the counteroffensive. I just read this morning, there's a new... You know, shipments of ammunition are going over right now, from Europe, you know, as well as The US, and and we're, I think, collecting old Soviet style ammunition from around the world. So that's that's happening. The question is whether it's enough, and we really won't know that until the counter offensive or whatever fighting there's gonna be over the summer plays itself out. I think by the end of the summer, by next autumn, the situation will be a lot more clear. I'm hoping it will be clear in the sense that, you know, the war will be over, but, obviously obviously, I can't promise that.
Kara Swisher · 1:02:46
Right. Well, in any case, it's a terrific article. It does I I... You you leave me more hopeful because these drones over the Kremlin make everybody nervous and the blame on The US. And, you know, you just... The escalation of tensions is not something we need right now, I suspect. Thank you, Anne Applebaum. Again, the title of the article is the counter offensive. It's the cover story of the June issue of the Atlantic. You can read it online now, or you can actually buy it.
Scott Galloway · 1:03:11
Thanks, Anne.
Kara Swisher · 1:03:12
Alright, Anne. Thank you so much. It was a great article.
Guest · 1:03:15
Thank you.
Kara Swisher · 1:03:16
One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
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— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 1:04:33
Okay, Scott. Let's hear some predictions. My prediction, I've... What about what about Moms for Kids Liberty? Get it? Do you like my name?
Scott Galloway · 1:04:39
Oh, by the way, while you... While we were talking, I went on ChatGBT, and I said, me six names for a group of moms who are against books being banned. And this is what it came back with. Mama bears against book bans, Mothers for Free Speech, Parental Book Defenders, Mommy Bookworm Brigade, Protect Our Children's Literature, and Book Loving Mom Squad. And this is Woah. This is entirely representative of ChatGPT in the sense that they're all adequate, but you probably wouldn't pick any one.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:09
Not bad. I don't mind book loving mom mom squad. Send those to me.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:13
But you... What is interesting is that there there there is probably no greater force in America that moves stuff, than moms.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:21
I agree.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:22
It was moms around drunk driving. It's basically when something happens to our kids, that's when we get incensible. So if the same thing happens with guns, but it's when moms move in and because a lot of moms tend to be swing voters or are key to elections. So anyways, I'm all for it.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:44
All right. So prediction, please.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:46
I got a couple of predictions. The first is I think we're going to see the banking crisis continues. And I think we're gonna see a couple of things. One, I think FDIC insurance, is it gonna be raised to like a million bucks or there's gonna be a cap taken off of it? Or the Fed is basically... And the Treasury is basically deciding that regional banks should go away. Because there's just very little reason to make... Keep your money in a bank above $250,000 that's not insured when there are now a series of banks that effectively have the full faith and credit backing of the US government. So I think we're going to see a massive increase or even a removal of the cap of FDIC insurance. Because what it comes right down to is these bank runs aren't about... I mean, the increasing interest rates is what catalyzed it. But the real problem here, the real issue in terms of outflows from one bank to another is that cap, it's that $250,000 cap. And unless they raise that cap, you can kiss regional banks goodbye. So for example, Charles Schwab, which has I think $300,000,000,000 in assets, is totally fine because their average deposit is $20,000 So probably 90 plus to 98 plus percent of their deposits are fully covered by FDIC insurance. But there are a lot of regional banks where 60%, 80%, 90% of their deposits by dollar volume are over... Or deposits over a $250,000. And that's just all going to go away because there's no downside to shifting it to a too big to fail bank. The only thing they can do to address this, they're kind of hoping this is all going to go away. It doesn't appear to be. I thought it was going to, but there's now two or three new names. So here comes FDIC cap raise or increase or take the cap off. The other thing that I think people aren't focused enough on is that this isn't about interest rates as much as it... They think they aren't talking about it as social media. And that is what happens when you can weaponize media and media has no fact checking. And there's also incentives around catastrophizing and weaponizing media. And if I were a short seller, I would take large short positions in regional banks, and then I would deploy my army of 1,000, 10,000, a 100,000 bots on Twitter and LinkedIn to go out and start creating insecurity that this is the next bank. This is the next domino to fall. And I think we're gonna find out in three months, thirty six months, is there are a lot of short sellers who created... Who could weaponize media, given new media platforms in the speed and the circulation of catastrophizing media that weaponize these platforms for financial incentive to take these... Because because the moment a name comes up, it's done. It's kinda done. The moment the moment there's enough trend... It's trending on Twitter, it ends up on a covers... It ends up in a story in Business Insider, and anyone with over $250,000 goes, what's the downside to transferring out? Which effectively spells doom for the bank. So that's... We're gonna see, one, a lot of conversation around the weaponization of media and its social media age as it relates to financial institutions, raise of the cap. And then my final prediction is I think, senator Feinstein is gonna resign in the next couple of weeks.
Kara Swisher · 1:08:51
Really? Why?
Scott Galloway · 1:08:52
The Daily did this fantastic rundown of the issue. And what it reminded people of, that people aren't focused on and forget, is that senator Feinstein has been a lion in the senate. She was... She passed hallmark assault ban, assault weapon ban. No one else was able to do that. She did it. She was she was a senator who took a real leadership position around releasing a report that shed American a very bad light about about how we were torturing enemy combatants. And it was absolutely the right thing to do, and she demonstrated real leadership in the face of opposition from our military, the White House, but she said it's important people understand what is actually going on here. And they also forget, and I know you were there, and I was living in California. This is someone who was thrust into politics by a murder. Mhmm. And she was the one that actually came out and informed people that that supervisor Milk and mayor Moscone had been shot. I mean, this is
Kara Swisher · 1:09:46
She's amazing. Oh, no. She was
Scott Galloway · 1:09:48
She has had such a storied career. And I think that... I think the reason she is going to resign is I think senator Feinstein has always kind of long term gotten it right. Like, if I could build a senator from parts of lesser senators, it would look something like Senator Feinstein, a Democrat who faces adult realities and is pragmatic and I would describe as a moderate, which is becoming a species that is increasingly extinct in DC. But now, unfortunately, her legacy isn't gonna be around. If this continues much longer
Kara Swisher · 1:10:15
It's been a little while she's been making some mistakes. You know? Remember she's yelling at those kids that one time to
Scott Galloway · 1:10:21
Well, okay. But but my... That's my point. Her legacy is evolving or devolving into something pretty negative, and that is this is now having a real impact on what is the... Probably the sole place of affirmative affirmative agenda from the Democrats, and that is to finally restore the courts to a more balanced position after Trump literally stuffed courts top to bottom with very conservative judges. And we have an opportunity to get some of that back, and it's not happening. And I think someone's just gonna say to her, what do you want your legacy to be? Because it's changing fast day by day.
Kara Swisher · 1:10:57
Yeah. I know. But who's telling her that? That's my issue is who's actually telling her?
Scott Galloway · 1:11:01
That's the correct question.
Kara Swisher · 1:11:03
But I think I'm I'm I'm aware of the people around her, and I don't think they have... She... I think she's not at a place.
Scott Galloway · 1:11:09
She's listening? You don't think she's listening?
Kara Swisher · 1:11:10
That's the issue.
Scott Galloway · 1:11:11
But but senator Feinstein, I feel like she's just always over the medium term gotten it right.
Kara Swisher · 1:11:17
I don't think she's necessarily capable of it. That's my
Scott Galloway · 1:11:20
those sorts of decisions?
Kara Swisher · 1:11:21
Yeah. And therefore... And there's nobody around her. She's not quite incapable enough for someone else to make the decision. I I think it's a real difficult situation. But let's hope. Let's hope.
Scott Galloway · 1:11:30
Yeah. We'll see.
Kara Swisher · 1:11:31
Anyway, we wanna hear from you. That's... Those are good predictions, Scott. We wanna hear from you about them and anything else you think about us. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551 Okay, Scott. That's the show. It's action packed show this week. We'll be back next week for more.
— Predictions segment ends —
Scott Galloway · 1:11:52
Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Endertodd engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Neil Silberio. Make sure you're subscribed to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. The best way to end a war is to win it.
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