Kara Swisher · 52:42
Move on. One last thing. Shein, your... One of your favorite companies, has confidentially filed an IPO in Hong Kong eighteen months after filing to go public on the London Stock Exchange. The company has struggled to receive regulatory approval in London and is attempting to put pressure on The UK. The company's been pushing back against UK regulators who want more transparency about its labor practices in China, which is no surprise. Xi'an was valued at a $100,000,000,000 in 2022, but that dropped to 66,000,000,000 in 2023. Any predictions? I'd love to hear what you think. I know you think the world of this... Or well, a lot of people don't, by the way, this this sort of fasc fashion thing, etcetera. But what do you... What what should happen here? What do you imagine? It'll just go public in Hong Kong. Correct? I mean, that would be my guess.
Scott Galloway · 53:25
What this reflects is the following. 200 companies have filed for an IPO this year. The bottom line is the Hong Kong market is on fire. The London IPO market with the loss of this IPO. I mean, I love. I I really have. I'm starting to get sentimental about The UK because I'm I'm I'm... I've been there three years. I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna move back to The US. And I love it there, and they have all of the underpinnings of a... Of an economy that should be booming. Great intellectual proper... Property, an incredible culture that attracts some of the best and brightest in capital, really, really aggressive, people. They can't get out of their own damn way. And for them to have... Sheena will probably be one of the biggest IPOs of the year. They should have done anything they could to try and breathe new life into their IPO market. Because as of now, the, is it the LSE or whatever it is, is basically done. It's out of business. The UK might as well close shop in terms of IPOs. And what's interesting is actually the London exchange would say it wasn't our fault. They couldn't get Chinese approval. But anyways, that's another another talk show. Meanwhile, while while you were sleeping, the Hong Kong market is on fire. And so Xi'an is just going to where the money is. They're going to where they can, a, have the most seamless path.
Kara Swisher · 54:42
Right. Without being asked too many questions, too many thorny questions.
Scott Galloway · 54:46
Sure. And so one, they deserve to have scrutiny. Fast fashion raises a lot of very troubling questions. But two, what Sheehan would say is, okay, now do Nike. Now do Apple. And a lot of the a lot of the people pushing back on this this company are people... Are are organizations sponsored by incumbent retailers who would rather just keep selling you cashmere sweaters for $200 versus 40. So... But I do think they're gonna get out in Hong Kong, but they're just going to where they're... Where there's... Where it's a seamless route to an IPO, and the Hong Kong market, who would have guessed it, is on fire right now.
Kara Swisher · 55:22
Yeah. Well, that's interesting. You're sad about leaving London. How cute. How cute. It is true. When I go to London, I think, look at all this creativity. Why isn't it more dynamic? Like, you know what I mean?
Scott Galloway · 55:32
70% of the companies have gone public in the last ten years or below their offering price.
Kara Swisher · 55:36
I I know. It's really fascinating to me. Anyway Name
Scott Galloway · 55:39
name an important tech company in The UK.
Kara Swisher · 55:41
You can't. I I I have had this debate with people in England a lot. We... I told you this years ago. Reid Hoffman and I did a debate there, and I think it was at Cambridge. And we debated, and Reid and I had to argue in in the next... And this was twenty years ago at this point. In the next five years, who... Which country was gonna have the most billion dollar companies? And Reid and I had to argue US, and the British people had to argue London. And we gave all these... We did a really good job, but we lost because it was a British audience. But but but I remember thinking, there's no freaking way this group of people is gonna be able to be as dynamic. And they didn't... And at the time, we said, Google, da da da da da da. And and and I said... And we were like, England? Zero. It was like there was one company, the one... The guy who died in that sailing accident. That guy, he had a company, that got all messed up in controversy, but that was... There was one UK company that had dynamism, and it was just interesting. Anyway, I will be sad you're leaving there. I didn't come and stay with you there. I need to do that quickly.
Scott Galloway · 56:45
Oh, trust me. You will. The house will be there.
Kara Swisher · 56:47
You'll Well, the... I know. You'll be away all soon.
Scott Galloway · 56:48
Pretty soon, I'll... Pretty soon, you'll be on podcast drinking tea, like, yelling at my dogs,
Kara Swisher · 56:55
your socks Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I will. I'm gonna plan on it. Alright, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
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— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 58:26
Okay, Scott. Let's hear a prediction. Actually, can I do one really quickly?
Scott Galloway · 58:28
Of course.
Kara Swisher · 58:29
Okay. So OpenAI is getting close to releasing an AI powered web browser. According to Reuters, the browser is slated to launch in the next few weeks, and we'll be competing with Chrome, giving OpenAI a way to access, user data. Perplexity just launched its AI powered browser, Comet, this week. I don't know who the winner of the browser wars could be, but I couldn't be more delighted that there is now competition in this area. Microsoft tried very hard. Netscape was the original one. It got ran over by Microsoft, which then got ran over by Google. And I love... I... I'd love to see what the next generation of browsers brings. Not that I use a browser that much anymore, but I... It should be smarter. It's so dumb when I use it. And so I think it's... I I suspect OpenAI will have the most popular one given they're the most popular. Everyone I talk to uses ChatGPT. It is the Kleenex. It's the Google of the situation. That doesn't mean it's gonna last forever because I think Claude is considered better by many people. Perplexity has interesting things. But I'm really excited about this thing, and I suspect the winner is going... This is what I predict the winner will be OpenAI and not Google because they haven't innovated enough on this. And so the people that... With an interest in winning are the most innovative.
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Scott Galloway · 59:44
I I think that's interesting. But I'll I'll be quick. These new tariff threats, 90 deals in ninety days, it's gonna be... What I'm predicting is the mother of all Rebovans. Remember when
Kara Swisher · 59:54
What's that?
Scott Galloway · 59:55
Well, the Rebovan was that ridiculous van and distraction when when Tesla had their, quote, unquote
Kara Swisher · 1:00:00
Oh, yeah.
Scott Galloway · 1:00:00
Last autonomous vehicle launch. They're like, oh, shit. We have nothing here. Let's let's let's drive up a big bus and say that we're launching a van, and let's have let's have robot... Let's create distractions. You're about to see the Trump administration go into panic mode when all of these countries that they keep extending the deadline and keep sending out threatening letters just say, sorry, boss. We're we're not we're not showing up. We're not... You know, you can threaten us all you want. They'll... They... You're gonna see the most ridiculous jazz hands in the next three weeks claiming victories. First off, these two, quote, unquote, trade deals between The UK and Vietnam aren't even deals. They're agreements to talk about a new deal, and You're going to see them start to announce the most ridiculous hollow victories to try and turn chicken shit into chicken salad, put lipstick on a pig. It is gonna start to get comical, the shit they're gonna announce and pretend is a victory.
Kara Swisher · 1:01:03
It's credible. It is an incredible thing. It doesn't really work either. That's what's interesting about it. Does it?
Scott Galloway · 1:01:09
Well, what this... What they would never do is admit defeat or just move on. They're gonna they're gonna say, okay. Paraguay has said that they're going to talk to us about a new tax credit if Ford opens more dealerships here. And they're like, okay. Put out a press release that we have a new deal with Paraguay. You're gonna see the most ridiculous announcements claiming victory in the next few weeks
Kara Swisher · 1:01:38
because is sending us a box of nuts. It's gonna be great.
Scott Galloway · 1:01:42
I do have a number of friends who work in the state department or work in the equivalent of the state department in other countries, and they're like, yeah. We're not doing anything. We're not responding. We're being polite, but we're not doing anything. We don't want to piss the guy off, but we're not coming to the table.
Kara Swisher · 1:02:01
Yeah, but it's so interesting. When is the point where they're like, they don't care about pissing him off? That lying is really... One of my favorite lie... Well, okay. I'm gonna say I don't know what she's doing, but Susie Wiles gave this interview. She doesn't usually come out behind the woodwork where she is usually living at the White House where she runs things and was like, I don't know what happened to Elon and how the falling out happened. I'm like, there's a knife in your hand, honey. Like, it was really kinda funny. But they they do manage to just prevaricate almost all the time. It's really something. And and and everyone knows they're doing it. Anyway, hopefully, won't hurt the economy too much or people's livelihoods. Anyway, that... Those those are really good predictions, Scott. I think you're a 100% right. We wanna hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551 Elsewhere in the Cara and Scott universe this week, on profg conversation, Scott spoke with Heather Cox Richardson. Fantastic, for you to talk to her. She's a historian and author of letters from an American. Let's listen to a clip.
— Predictions segment ends —
Guest · 1:03:06
But that idea that patriotism belongs to a certain party has turned out to be, you know, really quite poisonous. And you see now the elevation of partisanship over a country, and even in things as recently as the budget reconciliation bill. So there is a perversion of patriotism that we see going on around us. But reclaiming a broader patriotism that shows an allegiance to the country rather than to a political party, you know, we've done that repeatedly in the past. And the answer to that is simply to return to the foundational principles of the American democracy, the idea that we should be treated equally before the law. We have a right to a say in our government, and we have a right to equal access to resources.
Kara Swisher · 1:03:45
Good. She's great. Did you enjoy that?
Scott Galloway · 1:03:47
It's funny. The emotion I felt, it was a really... In addition to her being so impressive, it was a nice lesson for me because I am... I was actually quite insecure during our conversation because she kept putting questions back to me, and it was quite humbling because what I recognized is that she she gave me the sense, and this is important. She helped me know how little I know about certain topics. She has such deep domain expertise. She is so forcefully yet dignified. I thought, you know, I really should be more measured about some of the shit I speak about because this is what a real expert feels like. And I asked her to talk about, to equate thirties Germany and what's going on there to some of the attacks on democracy here. And she said, you know, that's not my area of expertise. And I remember thinking she has more knowledge about that in her fucking finger than I have, but she doesn't wanna talk about it because she takes her role and her expertise and where she has expertise seriously enough to say, I don't know enough about that to comment on it. And I thought that is a good lesson for a lot of us.
Kara Swisher · 1:04:49
It's true. It's true.
Scott Galloway · 1:04:50
But she is she is really She's
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Scott Galloway · 1:04:53
Impressive. Oh my gosh.
Kara Swisher · 1:04:54
You know, she lives in Maine. I think she's married to a lobsterman. There's some, like, really interesting personal story that she told me. Something like that.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:02
So impressive. So humble.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:04
I love an academic like that.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:06
Yeah. Really good. I've always said that, like, I work with one of the best faculties in the world. Half of them should be put on a fucking ice floe. They're doing nothing but causing problems.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:16
Well, focus on the ones that shouldn't be.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:17
Yeah. And a guild and a union that that translates to student debt. Something positive. 30 or 40% of them are doing their job, and a good 10% of academics are literally some of the most impressive people you're Okay. Ever gonna And she's
Kara Swisher · 1:05:30
one of them. Yep. She is. Okay. And you are too, Scott. You're a very good teacher.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:34
Go on.
Kara Swisher · 1:05:35
So you're still... I I think students would really like to see you back in that room. And when you go to New York, think you should do a class. That's my opinion. You're an excellent teacher. That's what I'm saying. Okay. That's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot, and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Scott, read us out.
Scott Galloway · 1:05:50
Today's show is produced by Lara Nayman, joined Marcus Taylor Griffin, Kevin Oliver. Ernie Interdot engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Miss Severio, and Dan Chelan. Yashat Kurua is Vox Media's executive producer of podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
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