Pivot · May 3, 2022

Tech Stock Slump, Staff Morale Down at the FTC, and Guest Tripp Mickle

Automatic transcript of the end of the episode, from 42:19. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

Guest · 42:19 Closed. They just weren't gonna be big enough to make a dent for them. HomePod, for example. Right? Like Yeah. Is is a a is a speaker gonna deliver enough sales for a company that large to to satisfy investors in Wall Street? No. You're right, Scott, healthcare, but that's still rooted in the watch and it's been a slow and steady growth. If you look at the wearables business, which includes the watch and AirPods, it is a $38,000,000,000 business. It's become quite sizable and it's immune from antitrust criticism at this point. They can still squeeze and build that. It's just a question of will they ever turn medical records into something that's that's profitable for them. They haven't they haven't quite shown that they're they're, on that path yet. Kara Swisher · 43:12 Do you... Who is the Johnny Ive of that company then? Is there one or do they need one? Obviously, there's there's no right way of leaving a company. He was such a legend there, no matter what. And he's he's... You know, as a person, he's so interesting compared to most of the executives there. And Tim goes out of his way to be dullish, right, trying to be sort of quiet and and and of brainy. Is there someone there that fulfills that role? Guest · 43:37 That's the open question. That's what I'm eager to see unfold in the decade ahead. If you look back at Apple, the real alchemy of it has been kind of this series of pairs. Kara Swisher · 43:50 Heart and commerce. Guest · 43:51 Well, series of pairs, right? You had Jobs and Laws, and then you had this decade that was really Jobs and Johnny Ive. And then though Tim and Johnny Ive are less close, they were key to this most recent decade. And I think the key to Tim's success going forward is finding who he's going to team up with in the future. Kara Swisher · 44:11 Anybody? Is there somebody The Guest · 44:14 early evidence suggests that Johnny Srutji may be that person. Clearly brought forward a lot of innovation in the chip sector that's unlocked a lot of value for the company in its But Mac Kara Swisher · 44:27 nobody like a Johnny Ive character, correct? Guest · 44:31 What Johnny brought to bear, you could argue also is like a bit of a legacy. I mean, you look at products in the world, they are already shaped by what Apple has done in terms of its minimalism. And so is industrial design going to be the way forward in a world where we're increasingly interfacing and interacting with computers through voice or augmented reality? It's going to probably be software driven. And so who is that person at this juncture? I can tell you, Kara. Think that's Scott Galloway · 45:06 the end Guest · 45:06 of the question about Apple at this point. Kara Swisher · 45:08 Can't think. I did have to buy someone like Snapchat or bring in Evan Spiegel who's quite creative or you know, they could have bought Instagram, Kevin Systrom. You could... Those are kind of more creative types of people. Scott? Scott Galloway · 45:20 What do people not understand about Apple? What's the biggest surprise, for you writing this book? Guest · 45:26 I think the biggest surprise for me writing this book was just getting such a deep appreciation for how after Steve Jobs died, the creative part of the company wound up having the people who were on the outside, the operators, kind of come into the middle. And just how confusing that was for everybody, both those on the outside who found themselves in the middle and were having to to adjust to how do we how do we build a product and how do we how do we make watch happen. And for those in the middle, working with the the the operators in a in a new way. There there was just this real period of adjustment in the wake of Steve Jobs' death, and Apple managed to navigate that. I think that's why we've seen this value unlocked, but it was not an easy road. Kara Swisher · 46:16 No. Everyone thought he was gonna fail. I remember that time, they thought they couldn't do anything without Steve Jobs. One time when that... Those stories were going around when he was sick, the... One thing he did say to me, he's like, I'm not Willy Wonka. Like, he was he was trying to sort of disabuse people from that he was the only factor that mattered here, which was unusual because he was also somewhat of a narcissist. So so it was an interesting thing that they have managed to go on. But is there a game changing product for them coming up? Is any... Are any of these the car, the glasses, is... Do you imagine that there's something coming that's really... If you had to pick between those two, which is where they're headed, would that be it for them? Guest · 46:59 All signs and all reporting indicate that glasses are first and car is second, that's Kara Swisher · 47:04 largely Car is Guest · 47:06 because of challenges with each one and the technology that they have to bring along Kara Swisher · 47:11 Is make sure can Guest · 47:13 Hollywood a new product? I don't I don't know. I mean, I... I'm enjoying slow horses. Kara Swisher · 47:19 They're doing okay. Guest · 47:20 Yeah. I think it's doing okay. Scott Galloway · 47:22 Oh, it's great. Yeah. That's great. Agreed. I've always felt that great companies have three or four people that can be the next CEO. And you just don't hear a lot of names that, you know, the heir apparent. Are there any heir apparents to Tim Cook? Guest · 47:40 There's a tremendous amount of respect within the company for Jeff Williams, the COO who's now running the design team and has been really involved in product ever since the watch. There's some other names that Tim has brought into the fold like Deirdre O'Brien who also came from the operations side. But do you hear these names often in the same way you say you heard like Jimmy Iovines or Angela Arons? No. Scott Galloway · 48:05 Even Philip Schiller. Remember him? Wait. Is he still there? Kara Swisher · 48:08 He's still there. Sure is. Guest · 48:09 Yeah. He's a fellow. Kara Swisher · 48:11 They're all still there. It's so fascinating with this group of people. Guest · 48:15 Scary. You'd you'd appreciate that. Somebody was telling me that they'll have to take, you know, some of these people out on a body bag. They just love Uh-huh. The company that Kara Swisher · 48:22 Well, they're also remarkable that they have been together for so long. I... I'll never forget. Walt was retiring, and there was a little party with all of them. And I was like... Was all, like, the old guys, and I'm like... And they're still running everything, and they're still there. Like, it was... They were remarkably resilient for for a management group despite all the the tensions and various fighting that goes on at any company. I have a last question. Regulatory issues. Apple's trying very hard to pretend it's not a monopoly or say it's not. It's been declared not a monopoly by a judge, and their argument being that Android is bigger. And in the scheme of all phones, they aren't, but they're have... Certainly facing a lot of headwinds around the App Store and the marketplaces and the other things they compete in. How how much of a risk is that for the company? Guest · 49:07 They're playing a game of App Store Jenga right now. Every once in a while, Europe or The US will poke at a piece and put it on top. And it's just a question of when that whole game of Jenga collapses and what that means for their business because the App Store itself has been such a driving force for their explosive growth in the past decade. Kara Swisher · 49:32 Absolutely. Everybody should read it. It's called After Steve. It's by New York Times reporter Tripp Nickel. How does Apple like it, Tripp? Guest · 49:39 You know, I don't... Kara Swisher · 49:42 I'll give you the answer. They don't. They don't. Just Guest · 49:45 so can commented on it Yeah. On some of the thrust of the reporting that's at the at the back of this book and said that it distorts relationships and narratives and and facts and so on and so forth. So that tends to be their Kara Swisher · 49:59 They don't is my answer to you, and it's a good thing. Scott Galloway · 50:01 Probably means it's accurate. Kara Swisher · 50:03 That possibly... Yeah. Anyway, was very funny. I said no comment when I was hearing some of the complaints. Anyway, I just said, oh, good. I can't wait to read it. I'm so excited. Anyway, it's a terrific book. Again, after Steve by Tripp Mickle. Guest · 50:16 Thank you so much for having me. It's great to Scott Galloway · 50:17 see you guys. Thanks, Tripp. Kara Swisher · 50:19 Alright, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. [Ad break] — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 51:40 Alright, Scott. It's time for predictions. I'd like you to make one. Please do. Scott Galloway · 51:44 I think that... So as I was saying, everyone's getting their kind of turn at, you know, at the woodshed here, and that is Mhmm. It just doesn't seem like anyone gets out of this alive. There's just very few companies that are gonna go untouched from their pretty significant drawdown. And I just think everyone's in this consensual hallucination that we can continue to avoid recessions forever. But anyways, the company that, because of this weapon of mass distraction called the shit show at Twitter, we're not talking about a lot of stuff that's really important. But I think that's business story that a lot of people are missing is what Netflix did to the entire media ecosystem. They basically sucked a $250,000,000,000 out of traditional media, whether it was movie theaters or the cable bundle. And now they've lost a $250,000,000,000. But what no one's focused on is I think the company that is feeding off the Netflix carcass is a company that now commands more attention than Facebook and Instagram combined, but has a content budget of zero versus 17,000,000,000 at Netflix. And that is Kara Swisher · 52:47 TikTok. Scott Galloway · 52:47 100. And the company that has increased more in value than any company in the world over the last twelve months in the face of everyone going down 30%, 40%, 80% is TikTok. And if you look at its metrics, if you look at it has the short form DOPA ADHD characteristics of this kind of new generation of people that need constant DOPA. And at the same time, it's managed to avoid some of the shitshow that is Facebook. It does have at least a perception of increased moderation, and it's basically the most we've to stop thinking of it as a social media platform. It's basically streaming Kara Swisher · 53:28 Entertainment. Without It's entertain... I've Guest · 53:30 always thought Scott Galloway · 53:30 of my content. Budget. It's Netflix. If... What would Netflix be worth if it didn't have to spend $17,000,000,000 a year on content? Mhmm. That's what TikTok is. Kara Swisher · 53:40 One of the things that's interesting, this new antitrust bill that got out of committee, Amy Klobuchar, the YouTubes of the world and others are all nervous because TikTok won't be under the $600,000,000,000 thing, and they might... That these companies might have to... There's gonna be a lot of pushback, and they're using TikTok as the cudgel. If we have to reveal things, why doesn't TikTok? So it'll be interesting. They're gonna be in the crosshairs of a lot of Scott Galloway · 54:04 this The fact fighting over that they don't get marked every day because their stock is not public has been such a huge benefit for them because this is what would have happened. Kara Swisher · 54:13 People are coming for them, though. Scott Galloway · 54:14 Meta has been cut in half. Amazon's off 30%. Apple's held its own. Google is flat, maybe a little bit down. I bet if TikTok was a public stock, it'd be up substantially. Everybody would Kara Swisher · 54:29 Let be going me just say people are coming for them. That's my prediction. Scott Galloway · 54:33 And then just on an anecdotal level, I was vacationing with some friends a few weeks ago. And they like me have boys. And the dad said, look at this. And the kid said, can we be excused? And he said, watch my 11 year old. And he went over and he takes, he says he does this every day after lunch. He takes his phone, he lies on his side, he pulls up TikTok, and it was so reminiscent. Remember all those images of the monks in opium dens where they just lie on their side and love life? Kara Swisher · 55:02 It's true. I can't watch TikTok because you get sucked into Scott Galloway · 55:05 Oh my god. Kara Swisher · 55:06 It's so entertaining. I just Guest · 55:07 watched it. Kara Swisher · 55:07 As you know. Scott Galloway · 55:08 And you know what? I I'm like, this is Don't do it. You literally... I find if I go on TikTok, the algorithm Yeah. I can look up, and it's an hour and a half later. And it's the closest thing to a modern day opium den. Kara Swisher · 55:21 It's so fascinating, especially... I'm telling you, I watched an hour of Air Fryer the other day, and I was like, stop, Kara. And I was happy. I was very happy, more so than being on Twitter. Was like, I'm getting off of Twitter. I'm going on to TikTok. I have a burner phone. It was weird. It was weird. I agree. But there... People are coming for them in any case. Scott Galloway · 55:38 I could watch for hours Kara Swisher · 55:40 What is yours? Scott Galloway · 55:40 Chiropractors adjusting people. Who would have known? Kara Swisher · 55:43 Oh, nice. Scott Galloway · 55:44 Dogs, which I knew. Mhmm. And then very attractive people talking about systemic racism who forgot to put their bra on. I also find that Kara Swisher · 55:51 Okay. Scott Galloway · 55:52 Just fascinating. I find that really interesting. Kara Swisher · 55:55 There is our entire relationship. I watch air fryer content, and you watch that. Scott Galloway · 56:00 Chiropractors adjusting people. Kara Swisher · 56:02 That one I could see. I would Who would like Scott Galloway · 56:03 have thought that? I There's a guy in Chicago that can literally make, like, your ankles and your hips Kara Swisher · 56:09 like had a chiropractor appointment. Guest · 56:11 I'm I so Kara Swisher · 56:13 got cracked in the neck, and even the chiropractor was such a deep crack. It was such a deep crack that the chiropractor did this. Oh, like that, which was disturbing. But nonetheless, it was very pleasing. Anyway, there we have it. Send us your questions. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit your question for us, or call 85551 The link is also in our show notes. Scott, that is the show. We'll be back for more on Friday. That was a relatively Elon free thing. Liked It was very nice. Thank God we talked about really important things. There you go. We'll be back. I'm sure there's something crazy is gonna happen by then, but we'll see what happens, And we'll be back Friday for more. Scott, read us out. — Predictions segment ends — Scott Galloway · 56:50 Today's show was produced by Lara Naaman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie and Jotot entered into this episode. Thanks also to Drew Barros and Mille Savario. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Kara, I will see you on Thursday. Will you receive me? Will you receive the dog?

Didn’t happen

Resolved May 3, 2023 · 12 months after it aired

Pivot #299 · Aired May 3, 2022

The US economy will enter a recession, contrary to the prevailing market assumption that recessions can be avoided indefinitely.

BEA revision confirms no recession in 2022jeffrey-frankel.com

3 more sources

How we graded it

Counts as true if: Check within about a year whether the US economy enters an officially recognized recession (e.g., NBER declaration or two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth).

By the one-year window (May 2023) and through the present (Oct 2026), the NBER has not declared a US recession following May 2022; its most recent dated recession remains the brief COVID-19 recession (Feb-Apr 2020). While GDP technically contracted for two consecutive quarters in early-mid 2022, strong labor market, income, and spending data led NBER to not call a recession, a conclusion later reinforced by 2024 GDP revisions turning Q2 2022 growth positive. Thus Galloway's prediction of an officially recognized recession within about a year did not come true.

Researched and graded by AI on Oct 13, 2026

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