Kara Swisher · 38:13
Course, this... You know, he made a mess of it. It was going pretty well, and I think Steve Mnuchin and others were working on it, then he had to insert himself very confusingly. And he's done it again with this getting a vague. It's just... It's ridiculous. I I... You know, Microsoft had to write a slavish letter to him. And let me just tell you, they do not think the things they wrote in the letter at Microsoft. And so the whole thing is just a ridiculous kabuki theater for this incredibly... This terrible businessman who
Scott Galloway · 38:39
doesn't understand the deal. Agree with most of you said. American firm is about end up with the fastest growing social media property and should when it's kind of an overdue...
Kara Swisher · 38:46
An American That's have my feeling. Or we're gonna disagree on this one. No more videos. So let's ask these questions in real time. So I'm gonna read them, Scott, and I'm gonna have Okay. Oh, this is interesting. Scott, do you have a GoFundMe? Want to get you a decent webcam.
Scott Galloway · 39:04
One question. Have you seen me? High def is not a good look for me. So the the worse the webcam, the better the dog.
Kara Swisher · 39:11
Wasn't Twitter's Vine the forerunner of TikTok? Would love to hear professor G's thought on the missed opportunity. What might TikTok strategy need to rebrand itself be given that Trump et al have branded it with a Chinese and suspicion. Let's talk about what what what is the next steps for TikTok and Microsoft once it owns it, if this all completes the way?
Scott Galloway · 39:30
I think Vine is an another interesting example of how you're not able to not only innovate around new products, you're not able to seize opportunities when you have a part time CEO. And I think it's another reason that Jack Dorsey will not make it to the end of the year. Q Cara saying you've predicted that over and over. But look, this was a huge missed opportunity and then incomes tick tock with what is effectively Vine plus and it's now worth $50,000,000,000 or potentially $100,000,000,000 which by the way is two to three, two to four x what Twitter, Twitter's market cap is right now Twitter is the land of missed opportunities. Terms of rebranding itself, there's a big opportunity. So just as Shopify, if I were Tick Tock, I would be looking at Shopify, Shopify found this whitespace the size of the Amazon by branding itself the non Amazon Amazon and being a good partner, and letting you have the data letting the merchant have the branding, and built a company that is now worth twice as much as Federal Express. If I were TikTok, I'd be thinking how can I be the non Instagram Instagram, safer, more respect for the Commonwealth, tighter standards, no election, no political advertising, and basically trying to start their hat white and say to advertisers and parents, we're the good guys? What do you think, Kara?
Kara Swisher · 40:49
I think I think this is a... I think they... It will go away immediately the minute they're owned by Microsoft and Microsoft will handle this Chinese security issues right away. The positive about a Microsoft is that they have the money to spend to, one, make it secure, two, do massive marketing if they're really into it. Three, protect them. You know what I mean? Be be protected, from any problems they might have going forward. I don't think IPO'd... TikTok could have gotten up to speed, most people don't, on security that would satisfy the US government. Even though it's sort of a... This is a forced sale, and we don't... I don't... Sorry. We don't do that in this country, especially when there's no proof necessarily of malware yet. Like, I'd like to see, like, the evidence and everything else, and I know it's difficult to do so. But this is part of a political calculation on the part of, president Trump, solely, even if he's messed it up a number of times. I do think that people will forget they do like the product. It's a popular product. And I do think you see other... Some people think that Skype at Microsoft has gotten worse. Other people think Minecraft is doing fine. Most people think LinkedIn. So if they allow it to be run by the people who have run it and allow it to be innovative, that would work. And I think under Satya Nadella, that will happen. That said, Microsoft is littered with consumer stuff that they've screwed up over and over and over again. That was under Steve Ballmer. So I
Scott Galloway · 42:08
think that's MSN.
Kara Swisher · 42:09
Hands down. I think actually it was a good phone. It was a very good phone. Let's just say.
Scott Galloway · 42:12
Well, but you forgot the difference between Microsoft and Facebook. You forgot that Microsoft doesn't run by a sociopath. You left that off.
Kara Swisher · 42:18
Oh. Although Microsoft was one of
Scott Galloway · 42:20
And by the way, I got to revisit this notion. You don't think what China has done to our internet giants isn't twice as bad as us forcing them to sell to an American company and take $50,000,000,000
Kara Swisher · 42:33
Yeah. But you do... Why why compare the two? This is like... It's not... This is the problem with Silicon Valley and others like yourself, the reductiveness of it. You can... You... I am so... I have been giving speeches about the worries of the Chinese Internet hegemony for a long time. TikTok is not the hill to die on. Five g is. AI is robotics. In... Investment in research, investment in innovation, investment in startups, and I'm not allowing these big companies. And what happens and you happen at the hearing is Mark Zuckerberg goes up and says, it's she or me. You know? That's not a choice I want. I don't I don't want she, and I don't want him. And so I think the the... To me, the solution to this is innovation, lots of startups. Okay. Let's get to one or two more questions.
Scott Galloway · 43:11
The the Chinese condensed deal.
Kara Swisher · 43:13
Oh, come on. They're they're doing very well on a lot of things. I just... It's just easy. It's easy to... I I agree. I think China is a huge threat, but not in in... Among teenage dance videos. Will the pandemic accelerate the popularity, and participation in esports? Scott, that is both of us are not sporty type of people, but what do you think? Because you've talked a lot about the Olympics not happening.
Scott Galloway · 43:35
Yeah, so I think esports have recognized an uptick, but what's recognized a bigger uptick without sports is this notion of masculinity meets gambling meets meets the markets. And I think that the biggest, unfortunately, I think the biggest beneficiary and the biggest externality of that switching behavior is that they're no longer watching ESPN, or they're no longer gambling or young men are no longer going to Las Vegas because all of those things are shut down and they're getting their $1,200 stimulus check and they're levering it up to $10,000 and buying big name stocks on the Robinhood app, which is using some of the same unfortunate features that Instagram and quite frankly, the TikTok deploy to run up the stock market, 93% of which is owned by the top 10% and the wheel spin. So I think the most dangerous thing right now about the absence of sports in addition to media companies, old media companies kind of being the last nail in their coffin if you will or being a dead horse while it's down is this rise in artificial market prices created by an addiction across bored young men who are no longer watching sports. And this typically this story usually does not end well.
Kara Swisher · 44:49
I'm sorry? This is gambling. Talking gambling, you're talking about gambling.
Scott Galloway · 44:52
I think so. Think it's tickling the sensors of esports and gambling. And we had Mark Cuban on and he talked about how sports franchises are going to boom because people are going to move to FanDuel and esports gambling. But I wonder if we've moved from markets which are a place to invest and build economic security to a place of gambling and kind of like depression and broken dreams among a large cohort of young American men. Your thoughts Kara?
Kara Swisher · 45:20
I think that esports are gonna be huge. I think it is. I think that, like everything else, everything's gonna change dramatically. I do think people will go back to regular sports, but like Mark talked about, the audience will hardly matter. And there'll be all kinds of streams that you'll have for depending on the sport you're interested in. So I think that's that's really where it's going, and I think, you're correct in in in that. So so... Okay. We're gonna finish up. I'm gonna have one more last quick question, and then predictions. And, what's your take on the telcos making media acquisitions? Let's backwards. How do you think those worked out for Verizon and AT and T so far?
Scott Galloway · 45:54
I don't think they have. I don't think there's any obvious synergy between AT and T and Time Warner. I think ultimately Time Warner will get spun again. I just can't when I see Apple content, I see the synergy. When I see Amazon producing its own content, I see the synergy. When I see Instagram, Facebook buying Instagram, I see synergy. AT and T has purchased a Time Warner. I don't understand how AT and T on my iPhone is getting me to consume more HBO or CNN. I haven't seen it yet. So I don't see the synergy. I think they overpaid for what are assets that have a business model that's declining. I think the big winner in that acquisition is Jeff Beuchus and Time Warner shareholders who sold it at the top. Verizon and Yahoo AOL, I don't see any synergy there. Ultimately, these companies are going to generate the big winners here are the bankers who in three to five years will come in with the same deck they use to convince these companies to acquire those companies but flipped upside down or they'll present it in reverse order and they'll convince them to vice divest them and they'll be spins again. What do think Carrie?
Kara Swisher · 46:54
That's a very good speaking pitch. I think you are correct. It's been a disaster. It's been a disaster. I think it hasn't been good. It didn't make any sense to me at the time. Just, it just doesn't make it. It's a lot of bankers. It's a lot of bankers who are very good at this. And I... It'll be interesting seeing who does buy these companies. And, of course, Internet companies are sort of the ones you're gonna be looking at, I'll let Jeff Bezos. I think you're gonna see a lot more of those for sure. Okay. We have one more thing to do before we wrap up today's show. And, of course, it is predictions. We have a surprise guest to make predictions over the weeks. But... And, of course, Scott's gonna be doing that. So let's go to predictions. Okay. Before you make a prediction, professor Galli, which is your which is your greatest talent, I think, of of your many talents, We have a special guest
Scott Galloway · 47:40
who's sending perfect...
Kara Swisher · 47:42
It is a low bar. Anyway, I was trying to be nice to you. You don't let me. You don't let me hug you, Scott. Like, you know, digitally hug you. Don't let it happen.
Scott Galloway · 47:49
So that's that's all you're get. Hug.
Kara Swisher · 47:52
No. You're not getting it now. It's done. Okay. Congrats on my Galloway before you make
Scott Galloway · 47:55
Give me a pig's ear.
— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 47:56
No. I shall not. Oh my god. You know, Stephanie Rowell had a comment about you giving yourself your own, nickname, but you should listen to Pivot today when you were gone. We had a lot of fun, us ladies. Anyway, let's play the prediction.
Guest · 48:08
Well, we're going to have Zoom screens on the inside of our sunglasses. A huge ratings number for the Academy Awards is going to be a 138 participants. News organizations are coming back. No. No. Trust me on this. Okay. So you know how in, you know, caveman times or whatever, I didn't really go to college. Anyway, whatever started local newspapers was probably, you know, a bunch of people. Maybe they didn't have secondaries or tertiaries, but that's gonna happen again. And they're gonna be kinda ragged at first, but not like this YouTube nonsense or Rush Limbrough or something. And most importantly, because of COVID, no one ever has to do a sex scene with Johnny Depp again.
Scott Galloway · 48:41
She's good. That's... I think we should just call a scene. That was very good. Now I thought she looks good. Is that a hate crime if I say that Kathy Griffin looks good? Is that a hate crime? Same with Phil Triggered? No. She looks good. That was funny.
Kara Swisher · 48:57
Whenever you want.
Scott Galloway · 48:57
She's good.
Kara Swisher · 48:58
Mr. Chris Matthews. Listen.
Scott Galloway · 48:59
I don't even know how to address that.
Kara Swisher · 49:02
I don't even either. Listen. That was great. That was Kathy Griffin, who I did great podcast with. But... And she's amazing. She's actually really interesting. Sometimes she goes off the reservation, that was a great prediction. Actually, Zoom inside your glasses is a great idea. And and the idea of Johnny Depp, I agree with her on that one. Although, I used to like Johnny Depp a lot more. So, Scott, let's go with your prediction. Let's go with your prediction, and this... And then we will finish this this possible debacle. So go ahead, tell me your prediction.
Scott Galloway · 49:31
So anytime you look at a company that's adding tens or hundreds of billions of value, one key one of the key themes you're seeing is verticalization. And I think that Apple is very disciplined and deliberate. And I think all of their repositioning and doubling down on privacy, and if they have control of the rails of the one and a half billion wealthiest people in the world, I think that it just makes a ton of sense for them to launch a search engine. But but here's the prediction, they will announce their search engine, which will be tested, ready to go clear, they've been working on it for a long time, the day that the courts make the decision to break up Google after the antitrust case is filed. In other words, they're just waiting for Google to be broken up before they announce their own search engine as Google would point to it as a competitor. So Apple search engine already exists. So it'd be very good. They're just waiting to launch it today. The courts decide a levy the decision to break up Google.
Kara Swisher · 50:29
May I press back on you slightly? What about their mapping? They never caught Google on mapping. You know, Apple Maps is... I took it off.
Scott Galloway · 50:39
Maps. Fair fair point. Yeah. That's that's the example where they have it. Apple Maps were a disaster.
Kara Swisher · 50:44
What about a
Scott Galloway · 50:45
subscription? But but is that the same thing? Is that the same thing? Well, think search at this point. But
Kara Swisher · 50:52
do you think you think they're going to really try to compete in an area they've never been good at services and things like that?
Scott Galloway · 50:58
Oh, what do you mean like, what like media or music or that that doesn't stop these guys. They have they have control of the interface, they have the rails to one and a half billion people search is $150,000,000,000 80 gross margin, that that carcass is too ripe to ignore, they're going to wait till the DOJ decides either comes in creates chaos or decides to break them up and they will announce a much more competent search engine and they'll stop taking that 5,000,000,000 a year and they'll double down on privacy. They'll say, okay, maybe we're ninety-ninety 5% as good as Google, but guess what, we're not going to weaponize you. You're not your kid, you know, we're this a cleaner, healthier search engine. Think they already have it. I think they're just waiting for the DOJ to weigh in on Google.
Kara Swisher · 51:42
And what about me? What about Bing Bing Bing? Remember that? If they still have market share.
Scott Galloway · 51:47
Yeah, but Microsoft doesn't control the rails. They control the rails into corporate America, but not into consumers hearts. They don't have, I mean, essentially Google and Apple. Google has rails. Apple has rails into the billion and a half wealthiest people and Google has the owns the rails into the other two or 3,000,000,000 of the world that's willing to have their privacy molested in exchange for a free phone. And the market is actually I think growing bigger for the former and Apple will take advantage of that and launch a search engine.
Kara Swisher · 52:18
Inaccurate, but I like it. I like the concept of it. It's interesting. Would Well, keys to be right.
Scott Galloway · 52:23
The keys to catalyze the conversation.
Kara Swisher · 52:24
That's true. That's an interesting question. I think that's a fascinating issue. And I think that's I... I've always thought they will they will kick Google off the Apple iPhone, that I assume, and we'll see what goes... Or put it down in the bottom somewhere where you can't find it. Anyway, Scott, that's a great prediction. That is a great prediction. And on that note, we wrap up episode one of Pivot Schooled. Thank you so much everyone who joined us live. And don't forget if you wanna watch pivot schooled live, we have two more episodes coming up. The next one is on Wednesday, August 26 at 10AM Pacific, 1PM eastern time. Get your tickets now at pivotschooled.com. You can also buy pivot schooled swag at pivot schooled dot com slash shop. Thanks again for listening, and see you on Wednesday.
— Predictions segment ends —
