Kara Swisher · 32:14
But why don't you give it to lots of reporters who are... Who can really track down and do reporting and not just do a series of ridiculous tweets and do actual reporting and get it right? That would be great. We... And and if something bad, we're open to something bad, but don't say there's something bad if there's not something bad. Just wait and let the proof speak for itself. So we'll see. But, honestly, just focus on the business. I can't I can't anymore with this guy this year, I think. Just make the business great. We all love Twitter. We would love these kind of things to survive. We'd love it to be better. So just make the business better and stop with the rest of it. You know? Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for our own predictions.
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— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 34:32
Okay, Scott. I know you've come up with a whole list of predictions at the end of the year. I won't ask for them all, but what do you think the biggest story of 2023 will be? What will be the Elon Musk Twitter of next year? Will it be a switch flip on EV tech? Could Meta spin off Instagram if its stock goes any lower? Do you like that one? Or could Warner Brothers Discovery sell CNN to cover its debt? Doubtful. What do you think? Let me have some predictions.
Scott Galloway · 34:56
2023, I think the Patagonia vest recession is just getting started. Oh. I think it would be impossible not to believe that every tech company in the world isn't watching what Elon Musk has done at Twitter and said, well, let's do this. Let's hold on to 80% of our revenue, which we could do. Sure. And maybe we don't fire 70% of the people. But if he can maintain a minimal acceptable standard for the product with 70 or 80% fewer people, maybe we could do it with 20% fewer. Gonna see layoffs are just getting accelerated. The ad supported ecosystem is just gonna be chaos. With these new apex predators in the ecosystem of Netflix and Apple and Prime all calling on the same advertisers with a recessionary environment where people are looking for excuses to pull pull advertising dollars, anyone who's in the business, including us, quite frankly, of ad supported media.
Kara Swisher · 35:48
Yeah. Oh, yeah.
Scott Galloway · 35:48
We're gonna see chaos and consolidation. Yeah. We're gonna see consolidation of the subscale. Everyone from from AMC Networks to Lyft are gonna be acquired. Twenty twenty three's tech of the year, Kara, is going to be AI. And I have something I was really or something I think is sort of interesting. I looked at peer reviewed research, the volume of peer reviewed research done in academic institutions, And it absolutely skyrocketed over twenty four months for research on the metaverse and crypto. And then it came down almost as fast as it went up. It wasn't sustainable. Whereas it was a slow build around things like the web or the cloud. And it makes sense that the slow build around academic peer reviewed research are more sustainable technologies because in peer reviewed research, basically what you're saying is, hey, colleagues at MIT and Carnegie Mellon and at the Haas School, this is what I think about the future of cloud. What are your thoughts? And they learn from each other and informs their research. So a slow build is a more enduring technology. And the peer reviewed research around AI versus crypto or metaverse is much more of a slow sustained build. And I think that 2023 is going be the year that the promise or the performance catches up to the promise, especially in medical school.
Kara Swisher · 37:07
GPT chat? That's the new hot thing for the five seconds.
Scott Galloway · 37:10
The... Well, there... You... There's the popular stuff where you get to say Yeah. Alright. A Great Dane drinking cicapa in the form of an old master, and it creates an
Kara Swisher · 37:18
You know, they had Kara Swisher and a white supremacist live together reality show. It was kind of stupid.
Scott Galloway · 37:23
That's good.
Kara Swisher · 37:24
That's good. It ends up in being a crime procedural, someone dies, and it's not me. But go ahead.
Scott Galloway · 37:29
I was gonna say throw in a colonoscopy. Anyways, but you're gonna see, especially in the medical field, I think that's where AI is really gonna but 2023 is going to be just as whatever the metaverse or crypto. 2023 is going to be the year of AI. I think we've hit peak personal genius. I think we're going to see a lot of orange jumpsuits next year. I think Sam Bickman Fried was kind of I said this around Adam Neumann, and I But was I think there's going to be real pushback on this notion that individuals are more important than institutions. I think people have just finally hit their breaking point. Streaming consolidates, we're just going to see fewer streaming players. They're going to need to be acquired. You know, it just doesn't make any sense. Peacock isn't working. Mean, little guys just
Kara Swisher · 38:11
They're not kidding. Can't keep on Peacock.
Scott Galloway · 38:13
Can't survive. By the way, had my fourth TV show canceled yesterday. BBC Tech Explorer with Scott Galloway was canceled yesterday because the streaming platform, the BBC, is no more. I am literally the COVID nineteen of television networks, Tara. When are you going to realize you have to do
Kara Swisher · 38:26
a TV show with me?
Scott Galloway · 38:28
You always say that.
Kara Swisher · 38:29
Well, I'm just watching you.
Scott Galloway · 38:31
Don't think you are the missing
Kara Swisher · 38:32
ingredient. Yes. I am. I'm actually the missing ingredient, but go ahead.
Scott Galloway · 38:35
Anyways, I'll be home soon. Yeah. Streaming consolidates. Fourth TV show. I'm little... I literally kill networks.
Kara Swisher · 38:41
Anyways Me too.
Scott Galloway · 38:42
Tesla posts record revenues, profits, and deliveries, and the stock is cut in half. This thing just makes absolutely no sense. It's been cut in The perfect analogy for Tesla is Netflix had the market to themselves for ten years. There were 18 competitors on the market last year. Now there's 32. He is off. He is just off doing ridiculously stupid things at some point. And then my last prediction was The US reasserts its dominance and hegemony. If you look at everything geopolitically, food independence, energy independence, our economy appears to be growing again, and we're reducing inflation. Yeah. Our vaccines are working. The smartest people in the world wanna come here. We're kicking the shit out of Putin in a proxy war without putting any Yeah. Boots on the ground. I just think The US right now, if you look at it honestly, as much as we dislike each other, as much as we want the situation room and to shit post America or feel bad about ourselves
Kara Swisher · 39:35
Yeah.
Scott Galloway · 39:36
America has pulled away from the rest of the world on almost every important dimension.
Kara Swisher · 39:40
Yeah. Well, we'll see. The only issue is... Look. People are getting weary of funding Ukraine all the time. I think there's statistics showing that. I do think China coming online is gonna raise inflation. They're they're... You know, they're... They have a
Scott Galloway · 39:52
lot of should decrease inflation.
Kara Swisher · 39:54
Well, maybe.
Scott Galloway · 39:55
A lot the gunk out of the supply chain, that should
Kara Swisher · 39:57
That... But also they have energy demands. Energy prices could go up.
Scott Galloway · 40:00
Oh, I see.
Kara Swisher · 40:01
Stuff like that. And and they they love that they're a demand economy now and lots. They're a food demander, by the way, so food prices could go up. They... They're they're an importer of food now. I agree with you. I think things are going well for the Biden administration.
Scott Galloway · 40:14
What did I get wrong there? Do you... What do you very much agree with or very much not agree with?
Kara Swisher · 40:17
A lot of them, I do. I think the Tesla thing, I I think it has a gravity that is not... Doesn't live on regular people's planets. I think I I I think... But I do see more and more people wanting other alternatives to Tesla, and that makes sense. The question is, is it Apple? Is Tesla Apple, or is it not? Like, you know what I mean? Is it like an Android, I suppose? I don't know what the... Is it Android or Apple, I guess, where people want alternatives to it? Because everyone still buys the Apple. Right? Don't think everyone's gonna still buy the Tesla. I think you're correct. But I'm not a luxury car buyer, so I don't know. And I don't think they're gonna... And I think their service problems are gonna become worse. And and so you gotta have alternatives. And I don't I just don't think the car is attractive enough given how many more attractive cars are coming out. And people buy unromance. I think something Johnny Ive told me, I agree with him. It's not a beautiful product. It's beautiful... It's a well done car, but people want some choices, colors, and Mhmm. Everything else. So, yeah, I think about that.
Scott Galloway · 41:20
Oh, wait. I forgot. My best performing stocks. I do stock picks even though it's a stupid thing to do.
Kara Swisher · 41:25
Yeah. I know.
Scott Galloway · 41:26
Airbnb. I'm a shareholder in Airbnb. It's been cut in half. I think it's dominant, and I think it'll it'll rocket up again. Chinese Internet sector. I think Chinese Internet stocks are gonna... Are a great bargain right now. A basket of Chinese e commerce stocks that are traded a fraction of what their American peers trade at. And then you're going to love this one, best performing stock of big tech. Meta. Meta. It's been over punished. It's trading at a PE of an old economy firm right now. And if you look at the way they account for their expenditures around the metaverse, they take them as expenses, not as R and D. They don't capitalize them. So the day they exit this fever dream or hallucination of the metaverse, the company becomes massively more profitable. If they can listen.
Kara Swisher · 42:11
Seems committed, but we'll see.
Scott Galloway · 42:13
But even so, it's it's not the it's not the nightmare that's gonna keep haunting them because they're taking the expenses real time. They're being very conservative in terms of their They are they're an accounting professor's dream.
Kara Swisher · 42:24
They're doing He does things.
Scott Galloway · 42:25
They're being very conservative.
Kara Swisher · 42:26
Correctly. He's a very strong manager. He's a very strong manager. Okay. Those are fascinating, Scott, and so many. I do think my... If I... This is one that I've thought about a lot and I've talked about a lot. I do think Apple's going to act on the App Store dominance. I think there's a lot of pressure here. Most recently from Elon Musk who backed off immediately. But, you know, the stuff that's going on with Epic and a lot of them, I think Apple's gonna act here. They... They're gonna try to cut it off by cutting the fees or something. It just seems like there'll only be a more growing effort with Republicans in Congress to pressure on this. I think it's the right pressure to bring to Apple, and I suspect, clever as they are, they'll do something first to assuage all their critics. It won't be perfect, but they certainly... They may do something that's more transparent. I think they know when it's time to do something, and I think it's probably time to do something. What do you think of that?
Scott Galloway · 43:16
Yeah. Well, they they tried that last year, right, with the small business relief where if you were doing under a million dollars, they reduced it to 15% instead
Kara Swisher · 43:24
of Yeah. Mhmm. Yeah.
Scott Galloway · 43:26
I I think I I think what you're saying makes sense. Tim Tim is kind of thinking two steps ahead usually on this. I just don't know if they're under that much serious threat, though, because I can't imagine the first piece of regulation is gonna be against Apple.
Kara Swisher · 43:39
Yeah. Yeah. That's fair. That's fair. I don't know. I think they'll act before congress acts. That's my... We'll see. If it gets any pressure, they'll move. They're they're like that. They're very good at that. They're very jujitsu y. Okay. We have actually one more prediction from a friend of Pivot, one of our best friends of Pivot. We probably should have played this earlier. Let's listen.
Guest · 43:58
Hey there, Pivot. It's your old pal, Steph Ruhl. My 2023 prediction is that Cara is finally going to end this lesbian charade and deliver Elon Musk's eleventh child. At which point, she, Scott, and Elon will officially become a throuple. They will then be departing Vox to distribute Pivot exclusively on OnlyFans. It's gonna be a wild 2023.
Kara Swisher · 44:26
Alright. What can we say, Stephanie? First of all, I don't have a uterus anymore, so I cannot deliver his eleventh child. But I appreciate the the effort. Scott, would you like to be in a throuple together? What do
Scott Galloway · 44:38
you want? So there are there are so few things I am not up for. Me too. At this point at this point, like, I'm pretty much open to anything. Yeah. And, yeah, this is... But this is one of those things. Yeah. Yeah.
Kara Swisher · 44:54
Yeah. There is no sexual tension between any of us.
Scott Galloway · 44:57
Literally, that's your go to. You remind No. You remind our listeners every other week that Well, I don't want
Kara Swisher · 45:03
them to think we're like TJ Holmes and Amy Kobach, whoever they are. They're people.
Scott Galloway · 45:07
They're good for ratings.
Kara Swisher · 45:08
Commit to
Scott Galloway · 45:08
the show, Kara.
Kara Swisher · 45:09
No. I don't... Oh my god. Stephanie. Very funny. It's not a charah, my charah. No.
Scott Galloway · 45:15
I'd be in a throuple with Stephanie and her husband. He's good looking.
Kara Swisher · 45:18
She's hot.
Scott Galloway · 45:19
Alright. Wait. We can joke about you and me and Milan, but I am not allowed to joke about her and Andy.
Kara Swisher · 45:23
Alright. Okay. You do that. That'll be nice. You know? She's very good with the Halloween and other decorations. You'd have a lovely life.
Scott Galloway · 45:29
By the way, I've been in several threesomes. They're a lot of work. They're a lot. You gotta take, like, juice breaks and nutrition break. They're a lot of work.
Kara Swisher · 45:36
Yeah. Okay. Alright. TMI on that one. Yeah. I wanted a sandwich one time. Whatever. I know they go to sleep and watch a movie. Anyway, alright, Stephanie. Thank you so much for that suggestion. We're gonna pass. But I'm sure there's other cool things that are gonna be happening in 2023. Again, I'd say that I'm thrilled to be with Scott Galloway still.
Scott Galloway · 45:55
Thank you for signing up.
Kara Swisher · 45:56
All this time, and it's still been fun and interesting. You keep me honest, and I think I do the same for you. It's actually really
Scott Galloway · 46:03
You keep me honest.
Kara Swisher · 46:04
Well, I... It's enjoyable.
Scott Galloway · 46:05
I think get dirty.
Kara Swisher · 46:07
We'll be also... In Europe, we'll be doing a live pivot from London and one in Germany, and we're very excited. So we're gonna hit another continent. And by the way, if you've never had a producer gather clips of your predictions of the past year and play them back to you, I highly recommend it. It's a deeply humbling experience. But you know what? We hold ourselves accountable. When we get things wrong, we say so. We get things right. We tout them endlessly because we're egomaniacs. Okay, Scott. That's the show. We'll be back on Friday with a special look back at the biggest stories of 2022. And now, Scott, I predict that you will read us out.
— Predictions segment ends —
Scott Galloway · 46:42
Alright, everyone. Today's show was produced by Lara Nayman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intertaught engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mia Silverio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to the podcast. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Thank you, Drew, Mia, Ernie, Lara, Evan, and Taylor for a great great year and making us look making us look better than we deserve. Thanks very much.
Kara Swisher · 47:06
Yes, indeed.
