Scott Galloway · 49:52
I would say adopted what I'll call work to live. This is very reductive to take this many countries, but generally speaking, you know, there is stores closed in Spain from two to four. That just doesn't happen in The US. Right? The notion that an entire continent would take most of an entire month off. That does not happen in But the I do see, I think The US and Europe are melding a bit. I see a cohort of entrepreneurs in Europe that are bringing the same intensity, the same laser like all in focus.
Kara Swisher · 50:23
I would agree.
Scott Galloway · 50:24
That is more typical of American startups. I see more of that here and I see more younger people in The US saying, I'm gonna cash out a little early. I'm gonna lower my burn. I'm gonna focus on my emotional and mental well-being and my relationships and my health. I feel like the two are sort of converging a little bit.
Kara Swisher · 50:42
Yeah. Louis wants to marry a highly successful woman who works all the time and he wants take care of
Scott Galloway · 50:47
the kids. Louis is
Kara Swisher · 50:48
Her son. Sarah's oldest son. He's like, got a whole plan, mom. And I was like, oh, great. The gold digger plan.
Scott Galloway · 50:54
By the way, that's just a really... Have him call me. That's a bad wrap.
Kara Swisher · 50:57
Oh, okay. I'll tell him to call you. He's gonna do It's it gonna be great. In any case, we'll see what happens. It'll be interesting. I do think one of the things that is happening in The US right now is a lot of the AI companies getting funded. There's a lot of startup activity. And so, may... One of the things US people are in love with is a gold rush. And so it feels like another gold rush again. So you're gonna see, I think, a lot more activity. Everyone who had moved to Austin or Miami are all coming back to San Francisco. There's an intensity happening again around the
Scott Galloway · 51:28
But you're such a fan of San Francisco.
Kara Swisher · 51:30
No, they are. It's the numbers are the numbers of luxury housing is going up, numbers coming back, people leaving Austin and Miami coming back.
Scott Galloway · 51:38
Are people really leaving Yes.
Kara Swisher · 51:40
Their numbers are the numbers.
Scott Galloway · 51:41
And coming back to San Francisco?
Kara Swisher · 51:42
Austin, definitely. May go to Miami, but a lot of people are leaving Austin. But most of the AI activity is in San Francisco. Study after study, and luxury housing is back up again. Tax revenues are back up again. It's just that's where the that's where open AI is. That's where anthropic. That's where all the companies are again.
Scott Galloway · 52:02
I would argue that California is got a little bit of an AI boom right now. We'll see how long it lasts. Well, so much Is
Kara Swisher · 52:10
it an all time high again? It's just, I'm just saying, it's a fantastic
Scott Galloway · 52:13
We've said, the wealthiest people in the world choose to live in California and New York and it's a place that people complain complain about the most. The people with the most options of anyone in the world pick two places. And that's the places that Exactly. Everyone complains about, California and New York.
Kara Swisher · 52:28
Yeah. So we'll see what happens. Anyway, we're gonna finish up. Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
[Ad break]
— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 54:44
And we're back at the Finance Forward Conference here in Hamburg with our lovely live audience. Hello, everybody. Alright. We're going to do some predictions. I'm going to go first. I'm going to do a prediction today. I've been talking to a lot of Europeans, and they're all telling me fatalistically, well, when Trump's gonna win, and I'm gonna go the other direction. Today... Yesterday, in Indiana, Nikki Haley, who is not running for president, in case you're interested, got 21% of the votes in the Republican primary. She broke 20%. She hasn't run for months. There is an anti Trump backlash within the Republican Party. Paul Ryan just got up and said he wasn't going to vote for for Trump explicitly. They usually say something quizling like, well, I'll vote for the Republican candidate. That's what they usually say, which is Trump. There is a weakness in the Trump campaign that I think is gonna be really clear. Increasingly, the polls are starting to move in the other direction. Nobody's happy with Biden's age, but Trump has not acquitted himself in this court. He falls asleep, and he has other issues around apparently flatulence, allegedly. But I have reporters there, they say it is actually accurate. He is... Now cannot use the sleepy Joe thing anymore. Cognitively, he's been losing a lot of voices. He's old. Let's just be clear. That's... And he has a... His his family has a history of cognitive decline, by the way. I think he is... We we treat Donald Trump like he's a winner when he has lost every election since 2016. He lost the two thousand eighteen elections. He lost the twenty twenty elections. He lost the twenty twenty two elections. And a series of elections in The United States around abortion and other issues, including in vitro fertilization, IVF. There's been a dozen elections in The United States that he has lost badly in deep ruby red states, Ohio, in Alabama, in, and now Indiana. And if... Let me just tell you, I drive around Indiana. I don't wanna go to Indiana as a gay person from the East Coast. I just don't. This is not a state that is very welcoming to anyone. Nikki Haley got 21% of the Republican vote. It's... To me, we treat Donald Trump like a winner when he is a stone cold loser every single time. I think women in The United States have had it. I don't think immigration is the biggest issue. New polls are showing that abortion continue... Abortion rights continues to be a big issue. I have a lot of Trump relatives who I barely tolerate in The United States. All the men go on, and the women sidle up to me afterwards and said, I'm not voting for that person. And there there is a quiet majority of people who may say they're Republicans, but will either sit it out or not go. I don't think young people are the big change agents in our country at all. I think they don't vote in the first place, although I just made my son register in Michigan, where he goes to school, and he's better voter. He's not going to school next year. And and I think we're gonna be surprised by the cognitive electoral and freedom decline of Donald Trump?
Scott Galloway · 58:14
Okay. At this point, it's impossible to tell. The two things that I don't think people are talking enough about, is I believe the two things that will probably decide the election or one of the two things are one, biology. We have one person who's 77 and obese, we have one person who's 81 and doesn't appear to be that robust. We have seven months until or six months until the election. There's probably a one in three chance that one of them, I'm not talking about dies, but has a health incident. 77 and 81 year olds slip and fall and the first health incident that happens to one of these people, it takes them out of the race because they're gonna look really old and they'll start lying and people around them will cover up and the news will come out, whatever it might be. So there's a non zero probability that one of them has a health incident. The other thing that we're not talking about and it's unfortunate, is whoever RFK junior pulls the most votes from is probably going to lose. Did you
Kara Swisher · 59:12
see the latest story today? About the worm had in his brain.
Scott Galloway · 59:17
A parasite.
Kara Swisher · 59:17
It ate half his brains apparently but okay, sure. Anyways. He's polling at 10%.
Scott Galloway · 59:24
Okay. So, my prediction Not
Kara Swisher · 59:27
with us.
[Ad break]
Scott Galloway · 59:27
My prediction, and this is a this is a bit of rant, so bear with me. Okay. You said
Kara Swisher · 59:32
two minutes and forty seconds, but go ahead.
Scott Galloway · 59:34
My prediction is Bukaya Saka. Does anyone know Bukaya Saka? And I'll get there in a roundabout way. Alright. I have had the best time here. It was so beautiful here today that I thought I'd walk around Hamburg. I'm super interested in World War two history. Hamburg played a big role in World War two. It was actually the largest port for u boats. The allies fire bombed Hamburg, forty four thousand people died, forty three thousand civilians. On the other side of Europe, my mom was five and her living in London and her nine year old sister was killed in the blitz. And for me to be here eighty years later is just such I think of us to be here is such a symbol of our progress. Democracies find each other. Think about it. I would say The US and Europe is arguably the strongest alliance literally in history. And I think about my mom passed twenty years ago, but if she knew that over the last twenty years, I had come to Germany 30 times. I've been to Oktoberfest three times. I've been to DLD five times. I've been to OMR four times. I was snowboarding in Stad earlier than year. I will be in Zultz this summer and most importantly, most importantly, the love of my life and the mother of my children is German and was raised in Munich. And even more importantly than that, ask me what I'm doing this summer Kara. What am I doing?
Kara Swisher · 1:01:05
What are you doing this summer Scott?
Scott Galloway · 1:01:07
I'm going to Cannes. I'm gonna have a great time for the Lions Festival. That's not what I'm looking for most I'm forward going to Greece. Gonna do a boat thing but that's not what I'm most looking forward to. The thing I am most looking forward to by a long shot.
Kara Swisher · 1:01:23
I cannot wait to see what this answer is.
Scott Galloway · 1:01:25
Is in July I'm coming to the first semi final of the European Nationals in Munich and then I'm going to the second European finals with my two sons in Dortmund which I'm most excited about because those people are fucking crazy, I can't wait to go to Dortmund. And then, and then and then I am going to the finals in Berlin with my two sons. Put another way, I love Germany. I love it here.
Kara Swisher · 1:02:00
You. You are such a sucker.
Scott Galloway · 1:02:07
Kiss up? Yeah. All true. All true. Let me
Kara Swisher · 1:02:11
see if I can do this. Eins suck... Eins suck up. Yeah. I lived in Germany. He didn't. I lived in Berlin for six months, many years ago when the wall fell. But we really appreciate it. We do love the the democratic alliances that we form. He's correct. And Scott will be here, so you'll see more of him here in Germany. And we really thank you. It's been a really fun time here, and we really appreciate the audience. We love our live events. And and thank you for being part of our live Pivot taping. Scott, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more pivot. Read us out.
Scott Galloway · 1:02:48
Just before I read us out, I probably need to close the circle. Bukaya Saka, I believe will be man of the match in the finals between Germany and England. I'm sorry. I believe England's gonna win. As long as it's not Oh. Let's all come together.
— Predictions segment ends —
Kara Swisher · 1:03:01
Lost it. Now he's screwed.
Scott Galloway · 1:03:02
What can we agree on as long as it's not France?
Kara Swisher · 1:03:05
Okay.
Scott Galloway · 1:03:06
As long as it's not France. Anyways, today's show was produced by Lara Naaman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Earning and Todd engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Neil Savario. Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Say something cool in German.. Thank you very much, Germany. Thank
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