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— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 2:00
I was right. I was fucking dead right.
Scott Galloway · 2:03
We predicted this.
Kara Swisher · 2:04
Scott, you and I predicted in March that we would see a deal like this.
Scott Galloway · 2:08
We predicted he would exit.
Kara Swisher · 2:09
As I predicted last week. As I predicted, I knew this day was coming and how it would go down.
Scott Galloway · 2:14
You did. You predicted it.
Kara Swisher · 2:15
I did.
Scott Galloway · 2:16
A new biography from Karis Wisher. And dot dot dot, I was right.
Kara Swisher · 2:20
But the thing is, I was right. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
Scott Galloway · 2:33
And I'm Scott Galloway.
Kara Swisher · 2:35
Scott, we're here for your Super Bowl, our annual predictions episode where we look past some of our past predictions and make some new ones. Are you ready?
Scott Galloway · 2:44
So ready.
Kara Swisher · 2:44
Yeah. Okay. You have a lot. I know. I've got a few too.
Scott Galloway · 2:47
So You do.
Kara Swisher · 2:48
Listen up to both of us. Okay. We're starting things off on the subject of AI because we have to. We're obligated by... Legally to do so. First, let's listen to a prediction you made on last year's prediction podcast.
Scott Galloway · 3:01
2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be OpenVideo. OpenAI and NVIDIA right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI, 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those. Answers to those queries are those two firms, and so it'll be kind of the new wind tell, and people start referring it to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world.
Kara Swisher · 3:23
Well, interesting. That was absolutely true. Except now, it's code red at OpenAI, how things have moved. And, obviously, NVIDIA is still on top, but facing some possible competition in 2026. Any thoughts on that?
Scott Galloway · 3:36
Yeah. I don't know if that was that provocative a prediction because it was already shaping up. The prediction I'm most proud of from last year is that I... Every year, have a big tech stock pick. And last year, picked Alphabet, and it's up 68% since the prediction. But it was already sort of forming. But, yeah, they continue to sort of be the the duopoly. What's interesting is similar to Wintel, people are coming for them
Kara Swisher · 3:59
Right. Very good point.
Scott Galloway · 4:00
Across, you know, on both dimensions, but especially OpenAI. And I like your analogy that OpenAI might be the Netscape of, of our generation.
Kara Swisher · 4:11
Yep. I've always waiting. Was it Netscape or Google? I think we're at that moment right now. It was Google for a little bit, but now it looks like Google's decided to be Google. Any... And you were right about that stock pick. Great one. Okay. Time for both of us to have an AI prediction for 2026. Scott, you got a prediction about AI stocks.
Scott Galloway · 4:29
Yeah. I think there's gonna be a major drawdown, and it's because it all goes back to geopolitics. Essentially, Trump has adjusted tariff policy with China 17 times so far in the second term. I think they've pretty much had it with this guy, and they've now said they're now in the closest thing they could get into short of a hot war. And so basically, China is totally diversifying away from The US in terms of exports. Their export volumes are up 40% since 2019, while imports are only up 1%. And over the same period, The US share of China's exports fell from 17 to 10%. And the reason that that sets the context here, then I think China's about to go for the jugular here, and I think that they're going to massively engage in what I'll refer to as AI dumping, and that is these open open weight models, including QN three max. These models are just much cheaper, lower power consumption, and everyone from Airbnb to other Fortune 500 firms are starting to recognize that these things are lower cost. And I think essentially China's gonna say, okay. The fastest way to kick this guy in the nuts is that he's made a giant bet on AI, including the S and P and his entire economy on AI, and we're just gonna start dumping AI into The US market. And as a result, I think you're gonna see a massive rerating down. And also the the the harsh truth is these open weight models coming out of China are getting to technical parity, and the fastest way to build a big business is to offer 80% of the leader at 50% of the price, and that's what they're doing. So I think you're going to see massive pressure placed on OpenAI, and I think that is gonna and other US based models, and I think that's gonna cause a rerating down of these stocks. And even 80% of a 16 z startups use Chinese open source models. So, anyways, I think we're gonna see a massive rerating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China.
Kara Swisher · 6:30
Yeah. That means data centers go down the whole thing. Oof. Ouch. Watch out below. Alright. Mine is, in an area that I keep thinking about a lot. I spend a lot of time thinking about it, which is robotics. And I think the combination of AI and robotics has not been fully plumbed enough.
Scott Galloway · 6:45
And
Kara Swisher · 6:45
I really do think the... That we are not paying attention to what all the innovations happening there is... Because we get focused on Elon's stupid optimist robots that are running around doing our laundry. I think they're... In manufacturing and all kinds of areas, robotics are gonna really start to become really interesting. Cars, I consider that robotics. The smarts of them combined with robotics is really where the big changes we're gonna see in our society. I just do... I don't mean, again, a a bot making your coffee, but it's not gonna look like what you think that... You know? Because I think it's really hard, as many robotics people tell you, to make a hand work. And where we're focusing is so anthropomorphic, that I think it's a mistake. I think there'll be robotics in lots and lots and lots and lots of things. And and especially when combined with AI in in Korea, they have these essentially ectoskeletons now have AI embedded in them, and they work so much better. And so you can see it being applied all over the place. And these are braces. They look like braces, and before they were mechanical that would help you walk. Now AI helps decide how you do it, and I think they're nothing short of miraculous. And so that's where you're gonna see some... That's that's my area in AI is focusing in on its applications in in a wide range of different products across robotics. Alright.
Scott Galloway · 8:02
I love that. And and just to add some texture to that, I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI. It'll be an AI application, specifically autonomous, specifically Waymo. And as you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon, and we'll come back to that.
Kara Swisher · 8:20
Yeah. Abs... They... And they have been early to that, by the way. Okay. Next category, business. Scott, let's listen to a prediction you made back in April.
Scott Galloway · 8:29
I think you're going to see in the next one or two weeks a cadre of Fortune 500 CEOs, Republicans stand up, business leaders stand up and say, okay. Enough already. While you all claim he's playing four d chess, at this point, we're worried he's gonna start eating the pieces.
Kara Swisher · 8:46
Not so much. Although Jamie Dimon sort of yelled at Maria Bartiromo the other day, but not so much. Yeah.
Scott Galloway · 8:55
Yeah. Let me comment.
Kara Swisher · 8:57
Yeah. They really have turned out to be profiles in noncourage. That's really something
Scott Galloway · 9:01
else. I thought... I just don't... And I still don't get it, quite frankly. I still don't understand.
Kara Swisher · 9:07
They're starting a little bit.
Scott Galloway · 9:08
What's the point of having all this money? And if you don't nod to the principles that got you this wealthy, I don't... I just don't... I don't get it. I don't understand it. These guys are bulletproof. Why are they... What are they worried about?
Kara Swisher · 9:21
Yep. Agreed. I think it's just one of the most disappointing things you've seen here. I think it surprised everybody, a lot of people. Anyway, you've got an investment prediction here, and then I have one. Go ahead.
Scott Galloway · 9:31
You mean my stock pick?
Kara Swisher · 9:32
Yes.
Scott Galloway · 9:33
So my Big Tech stock pick every year, I pick a Big Tech stock pick, and my stock pick this year is... And when I say outperform, if if AI if AI throws up, everything's going down, folks. So what I'm saying is this stock will perform better. That might be down 10 instead of down 50. But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon. It's been an underperformer. Year to date, it's only up 7%. And also, revenue per employee is down 28% versus up 49, 56, and 62 at Meta Alphabet and Microsoft respectively because they have made massive investments that have not yet yielded payoffs in, see above what Kara said, robotics. But what you're gonna see here is that they've started laying off employees. I'm not saying that's a good thing, but Google's laid off 2,500, Meta 4,600, Tesla 14,000, Amazon's laid off 18,000. And what's just so striking is that Amazon is predicting it can double the revenue at its retail group, which is as big as top line revenue business with no increase in employees. And I think the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics at Amazon is huge. And Amazon is really the Ford of the twenty first century, and that is over several years, Ford was able to take the the time to to manufacture a car down 90%. And Amazon, just since its acquisition of Kiva robots, has been able to take down click to fulfill or to ship down by 80%. And if you wanna talk about your prediction around investment in robotics, here is the number of operational industrial robots. China has 2,000,000. The US, excluding Amazon, has 400,000. Amazon has a million operational industrial robots. So Amazon has two and a half times the number of operational robots, industrial robots, as the rest of the nation combined. So they have made an enormous bet, and typically more margin expansion from Amazon has come from its media group, where you have it forced to advertise, or from its cloud group. But you're going to see a margin expansion at the hands of operational efficiencies from robotics and AI in its retail group. It's also... I don't wanna say cheap right now, but reasonably priced. It typically trains at a PE multiple over the last five years of 58. Now it's at 33, and its enterprise value to EBITDA is usually 23, and now it's 17. So in sum, my... I I think it's fairly... It's not... It's a fair value right now, and I think you're about to see the mother of all margin expansion at the hands of AI and robotics. So my big tech stock pick for '26 is Amazon.
Kara Swisher · 12:25
It. So Amazon, is. Really interesting. I'm gonna... You know, there's a lot of IPOs coming up. We've talked about them, SpaceX, a bunch of others. And I think that's all very interesting. But, you know, you talked about that there was a lot of worry about the stock market declines couple years ahead of the the decline. Right?
Scott Galloway · 12:44
Mhmm.
Kara Swisher · 12:44
I just feel like with this midterm election coming up, we may have a more of a stock market downturn before that. Like, I I don't like to call these as I'm not an expert in this way, but the... It it feel... Investors feel very fragile, it seems like Mhmm. And anything affects them. And I know it's been a surging stock market. It really has sort of against all the odds and all the deficits and every... It seems to, like, ignore that. But I know they could ignore it for two or three more years. I think sometime in 2026, maybe at... Right after the midterms, which I think everyone needs to be paying attention to, obviously, this year. We may start to see, like, maybe the stock market not being so good for Trump. I think that's... Helped buoy him. And as you said, if China does things like you were talking about, you're gonna see... Where you're gonna see the declines are in these tech companies. So I just feel like there's there's gonna be a real... A lot of volatility around the companies that you talked about in the first place. Alright, Scott. Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, more predictions.
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Kara Swisher · 15:55
Okay, Scott. Let's talk politics. I'm not sure we could have predicted most of the mess that was the 2025 politics. We did okay. We did get one thing right about a certain breakup. Let's listen to what, I said on... In November 2024.
Kara Swisher · 16:09
I think these people can't coexist together in the same room for much... For too long. Trump likes the attention, and Elon likes the attention. And there's only so much attention to go around.
Kara Swisher · 16:19
And I had a cold end. Let's hear what you had to say on the matter in February.
Scott Galloway · 16:24
I think DOGE is gonna be over and done by the end of the year.
Kara Swisher · 16:28
Okay. We got that one right. We just did. We just knew it.
Scott Galloway · 16:31
Yeah. But they they saved 2,000,000,000 Yeah.
Kara Swisher · 16:34
No. He saved nothing. He killed people.
Scott Galloway · 16:36
He's he's he's about to unwittingly, and I'm not saying he meant to do this, but he will probably end up on some lists along with Stalin, Pol Pot, Hitler. People will start to aggregate lists. I don't know if Trump or Musk will be on that list, but when you look at the hundreds of thousands of people whose fatality or death can be directly linked to a lack or a cutoff of USAID, they're gonna end up on some of those lists.
Kara Swisher · 17:00
Yeah. And I think we got the dose thing right. They're still there. Some of them are still there. But, you know you know, look. It's fine to wanna save money and be more efficient, but the way he did it was so ham handed and cruel and and pointless. I I met some USAID people last night at an event, and they were doing astonishing work. And it was all soft diplomacy, you know, soft power and stuff. Just the the damage he's done because he's such a, like, demented addict of some sort, it was really, really stupid. And I think he just wanted to break, like, me break thing by kinda thing, and it wasn't thoughtful. There's a thoughtful ways to figure out how to be more efficient, and he didn't use none of them. And it was inevitable that he would fight with Trump. He'll still be hanging around the basket because he's such a toxic figure, and Trump will use him as he wants. But Trump certainly, if only if he has use for him will he be around. Okay. I've already made, one politics prediction for 2026. Let's play a clip as a reminder. I don't know. I feel like we're gonna have president J. D. Vance by the end of twenty twenty six.
Scott Galloway · 18:03
You you
Kara Swisher · 18:03
I get it, but
Scott Galloway · 18:04
he is the vice You think this ends his presidency prematurely?
Kara Swisher · 18:08
Yes. Well, I still think that.
Scott Galloway · 18:10
That would... So I can see him being impeached in congress. He would need 66 votes or 67 in the senate.
Kara Swisher · 18:18
I don't mean like that.
Scott Galloway · 18:19
You you think he resigns?
Kara Swisher · 18:21
I think he's sicker than we than we realize. I think he's very robust looking, but I think there's all manner of... I've seen more and more doctors like, this is like the health issue. I don't know. Look. His family stuck around for a while being... His dad stuck around for a while with dementia. That's for sure. But I do think there's I just... I don't know. I just feel like... I think they're gonna try to give Vance an attempt to be president, and I think the... I think that they'll run out of reasons to keep him there. And I I think at... If he loses badly in the midterms, I think that's he's no no longer useful, let's just say. And so I don't mean killing or anything like that. I just think he's old. He's just old, Scott. As you said, biology is undefeated. Okay, Scott. Give us... I I have one more, but let... Well, actually, I'll do mine. I would like to see in politics the shutting up of tech CEOs everywhere. I mean, when have we seen... Like, can you imagine the head of Lockheed behaving like Alex Karp did in that recent New York Times thing with our favorite Canadian, Andrew Ross Sorkin. He looked demented, screaming on the stage. Did you see that performance?
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Kara Swisher · 19:30
Well, they thought he was on cocaine. I have no idea. He looked crazy. That's all I know. Like, who knows? They were making all kinds of cocaine jokes, but he... He's not. I don't believe that's a
Scott Galloway · 19:39
case just like and marching powder.
Kara Swisher · 19:41
No. I just think he's
Scott Galloway · 19:42
like that. Devil's dandruff?
Kara Swisher · 19:44
My experience is he's just like that, and now you're getting a fucking taste of what I've had to listen to over the decades. But I think these people... Like, if I see Jensen Huang and his stupid code anymore, like, when do we... When was the head of Lockheed around all this time? When was the head of... Like, these people need to sit down and shut up for a little while. Like, seriously, they just can't stop making giant asses of themselves almost continually. And so I would predict they need to shut up. They won't, but that's what I would like to happen. What is your prediction for, you have an interesting one about the predictions market.
Scott Galloway · 20:18
Yeah. So... Well, one, I think the next bailout is coming. There was a bailout at the banks. Actually, I think that was a good idea. There was a bailout at the airlines, which was socialism and stupid. We should've let them go out of business. All these airline CEOs who used all their excess cash flow when things were good to do stock buybacks and collect 150,000,000 in compensation, and then COVID hits, we're all in this together. And they got bailouts. But the next bailout is gonna be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella. Basically, the S and P is now 40%. The magnificent 10, Trump is only able to get away with the shit he's getting away with because the S and P is up 13%. So his entire presidency and our entire economy is now one big giant bet on AI. There is no way they can keep up with these expectations. So what they will do is come to Washington, hat in hand, and they will call it something else like a chips act, and they will have government backed debt of purchases of these chips in these data centers to prop up an AI market.
Kara Swisher · 21:16
Can we get Jensen Huang's leather coat in exchange? I should have it.
Scott Galloway · 21:20
It's about to become a multitrillion dollar leather coat. But, I mean, every industry now... The energy industry, 10% of their earnings call mentioned AI. Financials, one in five earnings calls are now talking about it. And, also, if you look at the big... The biggest tech stocks, from peak to trough, Alphabet was down 65%, Microsoft 70%, Meta lost three quarters of its value from 2021 to 2022. Apple lost 83% of its value in the .com implosion. Nvidia lost 90% in .com. Amazon lost 95 peak to trough. The problem is is if if these companies do what these companies do in a volatile environment, the economy goes into a tailspin, and Trump is no longer allowed to bomb or to murder people in the water or send in a mass secret police into American towns. So he will decide to prop up this industry with what is effectively a bailout that'll be positioned as growth. But, essentially, this... The next bailout is coming. Polymarket and Calshy, I just can't get over how genius these businesses are because you have the ultimate marketing, and that is whenever there's a big decision to be made or or a big issue, we... We're starting to look at what these companies think because they leverage
Kara Swisher · 22:38
Except they can be so game, Scott. I'm so nervous about the gaming aspect and kind of the sick ass. Like, let's bet how many kids are die... Have died in this shooting, that kind of stuff.
Scott Galloway · 22:47
Well, oh, no. There's bigger concern. Well, okay. First off, let's look at the opportunity for insider trading. It's getting down to, will this pitch be faster or slower than 90 miles an hour? So... Okay. Eric Adams. Will Eric Adams drop out of the race in next seven days? And they say, oh, no. It's three to one. He doesn't. If I'm Eric Adams and I'm eventually gonna drop out, why don't I raise $10,000,000 and drop out the next day and as a severance payment collect $20,000,000? I mean, it's just... And the the unfortunate thing is most of us don't have access to this insider information, so we are around the wrong end of a trade asymmetrically. And, also, when states legalize gambling... And this is... It's not really gambling. I like these things. I don't I don't... I can't decide if I like these things or I don't like these things.
Kara Swisher · 23:34
I agree. I agree. Some of it's really interesting. At the same time, I'm like, so easy to game, so easy to go sick. Right? Like, dead on.
Scott Galloway · 23:41
It's attempting to legitimize gambling. You're not investing here. You're gambling. But at the same time, I just appreciate how powerful these businesses are. Also, I'm gonna start incorporating either Polymarket or Kalshi data into a lot of my media. I just think it's fascinating what the wisdom of crowds thinks. And if you look at these things, they are fantastic prediction engines. They usually get it they usually get it right. So
Kara Swisher · 24:05
For now. Like, you know what I mean? It feels like so... I feel like the Russian mob is like, how shall we handle this?
Scott Galloway · 24:11
This is a pretty good Along those lines, the majority of the bets in the New York mayoral race came out of The Middle East. So you don't think we're... They're gonna start using... Because if you say mom Donnie is up 95%, that is really good for mom Donnie. Yeah. And so why wouldn't you weigh in and start manipulating these things? Anyways... And
Kara Swisher · 24:32
Pay attention, people.
Scott Galloway · 24:34
There is... And also, just the downside, first off, my mom was a docent at the Bellagio Hotel, and she used come
Kara Swisher · 24:40
I love that word, docent. Go ahead.
Scott Galloway · 24:42
She used to come home armed with these fun facts, and one of them was kinda sad is that gambling has the highest suicide rate. So one in seven men who are... Who gamble are addicted. It's got the highest suicide rate because if you develop an addiction to meth, people start to notice and they weigh in. You can leverage your home, spend your kids college fund, and nobody knows, and people feel as if they have no way out. In addition, bankruptcies go up by a third the moment a state legalizes gambling. So there are some real externalities here. But having said that, I am fascinated by these markets. It's going to be the vice of the year. It's gonna be the predictions market. And I also think that they will be two of the biggest... One or both of them is gonna go public in 2026, and it's gonna be one of the biggest... It's gonna be one of the best IPOs of '26. These things are phenomenal.
Kara Swisher · 25:30
Can you see this going so fucking sideways? I'm gonna bet on... If Kara or Scott is gonna die first, and then I'll kill you.
Scott Galloway · 25:39
Well, again, insider trading here
Kara Swisher · 25:42
Or Lair. I'll have Lair kill you, our producer. For... See what I mean?
Scott Galloway · 25:45
The opportunity for insider trade... And is it even insider trading? How does sports betting... If you're a pitcher on your last leg here and you're about to, like, not make any more money and you're finally up from triple a ball and you're not gonna make any more money, you just have your brother in the stands go pitch it slower than 90 miles an hour on this one. Pitch it faster. And you walk... You can probably walk away with another million bucks on that game. And I'm not even sure if it's illegal yet.
Kara Swisher · 26:09
I like that you go to sports and you don't go to murder murder like I do.
Scott Galloway · 26:13
Yeah. I don't I don't...
Kara Swisher · 26:14
I mean,
Scott Galloway · 26:14
there's cheaper ways to get someone killed probably. But
Kara Swisher · 26:16
I know. But it's game... Everything's gamified.
Scott Galloway · 26:19
You wanna talk about... It's already impacting. Okay. Caesars, down 38% this year. Vegas, every Vegas company that's publicly traded is down between 1938% this year because why? Oh, and by the way, I just love the fact that we've lost $4,000,000,000 in Vegas because Canadians are no longer going, but it's... Our manufacturing base has been absolutely reinvigorated. Jesus Christ. What fucking idiots.
Kara Swisher · 26:42
What fucking idiots?
Scott Galloway · 26:42
Way, folks, 80% of people don't wanna be in manufacturing. You can't bring your dog to the factory floor. Anyway, where I was headed with this is there's few... There's fewer people in Vegas because now Vegas is in you. Vegas Vegas is everywhere now. So you're really gonna see these firms struggle, and you're gonna see an enormous transition of capital.
Kara Swisher · 27:01
So you can't get a massive breakfast bar, that's true, for $2. Alright, Scott. Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, entertainment predictions.
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Kara Swisher · 29:19
Okay, Scott. Next up, we're talking about media and entertainment. Last year, you appreciate it would be a banner year for podcasters. Let's listen to what I said about our favorite movie. Wicked for good was amazing, I have to say.
Scott Galloway · 29:31
It's a play?
Kara Swisher · 29:32
It's a movie. It's a sequel. It's, like, gonna be an enormous
Scott Galloway · 29:35
Oh my god. There's a sequel now?
Kara Swisher · 29:36
Yes. It's
Scott Galloway · 29:37
Make them stop. No.
Kara Swisher · 29:38
Oh, literally.
Scott Galloway · 29:40
Think they should outlaw sequels.
Kara Swisher · 29:41
Huge box office this year. Yeah. It's not quite... It hasn't quite reached this... The first one, but, yeah, it's huge. Just so you know,
Scott Galloway · 29:48
it makes $375,000,000
Kara Swisher · 29:52
and Book checks are just
Scott Galloway · 29:53
fucking awesome.
Kara Swisher · 29:54
No. They're not. That may be. Oh, good. Don't care.
Scott Galloway · 29:57
Oh my god. It's a helicopter. We're in a quasi demi parasocial Doesn't matter. And they weigh 45. Yeah. They're great role models for fifteen months.
Kara Swisher · 30:07
That is an issue.
Scott Galloway · 30:08
Oh my god.
Kara Swisher · 30:08
That is... I would say that is an issue worth discussing. I don't usually like to talk about people's looks, but in that case
Scott Galloway · 30:14
They're disappearing.
Kara Swisher · 30:15
All of them. The entire cast. It's really weird. Anyway, I agree. It's concerning. Let's just say concerning. But let me say I was right. I owe... You were never right about what's popular by the
Scott Galloway · 30:25
About media? Oh, no.
Kara Swisher · 30:26
So Pluribus.
Scott Galloway · 30:27
My prediction is that all World War two and color documentaries are the biggest movies.
Kara Swisher · 30:32
Understand, Grant. But listen. You're right about Pluribus.
Scott Galloway · 30:34
Oh my god. Pluribus is good. Vince Gilligan.
Kara Swisher · 30:37
HDP, HDP, and John Cena. I'm not... We're not... This is going in many weeks.
Scott Galloway · 30:42
Let I think I'm on it. Is that human growth hormone? I mean, I have longer erections and a little stronger in the gym, but see your doctor. See your doctor.
Kara Swisher · 30:49
Human derived protein. You're not caught up, I guess.
Scott Galloway · 30:51
Anyway Human what?
Kara Swisher · 30:52
Oh, this is this
Scott Galloway · 30:53
is from your secret show on CNN?
Kara Swisher · 30:55
No. This is this is Pluribus.
Scott Galloway · 30:57
Oh, Pluribus. Okay. People.
Kara Swisher · 31:00
Soylent Green is people. Anyway, we're gonna... By the time this airs, we'll know more. But let me just say, it's also a banner year for dyspeptic lesbians on television. So that's really good. Difficult lesbians are the trend, and and I and I sort of pioneered that. Anyway
Scott Galloway · 31:17
Speaking of lesbians, has Emily Ratajkowski asked about me?
Kara Swisher · 31:20
Not yet. Not yet. No? Not yet. I'll let you know.
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Kara Swisher · 31:23
know. Okay. Anyway, probably sometime in
Scott Galloway · 31:25
She's gonna play it that way.
Kara Swisher · 31:26
Sometime in the twelfth of never. Alright. Scott, you've got a prediction about the future of Hollywood, and so do I. You go first.
Scott Galloway · 31:33
Okay. So short short form video and AI media strike Hollywood. AI won, especially the Ellisons get a hold of Warner. You have to wait seven minutes after the Fantastic Four just to get through the credits. More people worked on the Fantastic Four than work at Reddit and slightly fewer than Palantir. The means of production has to come way down, and AI is just going to... Mean, everybody is so sentimental for theaters. Theaters have not come back. Basically, theaters are down by a third since COVID. It just hasn't recovered. You're also gonna see... You know, seventy eight percent of Americans ten to twenty four years old watch TV or movies on YouTube or TikTok. And then what's crazy is these short form video platforms. The Kids Diana show has 137,000,000 subscribers, which is I think, more subscribers than Disney plus. What's weird is that Meg Whitman and Jeff Katzenberg might have been right about short form video. They were just kind of ahead of their time and didn't have the capital. But we have trained our brains to be so short form and dopa hungry that these short form video series of three and six minute little mini episodes out of China seem to be taking off and getting real share. But back to the original one, AI is coming for Hollywood, and all the virtue signaling and and how precious they are is not gonna mean a fucking thing. Economics, to your point, and capitalism will win out here. But, basically, AI, which everyone is expecting, is about to accelerate in terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood, and b, I think these short form video platforms that I had not heard of before are about to make a real a a real dent. And just some of the titles... My favorite titles of some of the people who worked on the Fantastic Four, Molly Cook was an assistant data wrangler.
Kara Swisher · 33:32
You know what? She's gonna call you. That's important. That's important.
Scott Galloway · 33:36
They had a home economist. They had... I mean, it's just it's just hilarious. Vehicles art director, a junior petty cash buyer. Oh, no. No. Olivia Olivia Sommery was a food stylist.
Kara Swisher · 33:50
Is it all women that you wanna get out of work? But go ahead. No. Go ahead. Have a man. Have a man. Is there a man on your list?
Scott Galloway · 33:56
Gender. I'm not looking at this and going man or woman.
Kara Swisher · 34:00
No. I think you're right about both
Scott Galloway · 34:01
sex and race.
Kara Swisher · 34:02
Food styling is also important, just so you... But it will be all AI ed, just so you know, food stylists. They're gonna AI this shit. But I would agree with you on all... Both these things. You know what's interesting? Many years ago, there was a show called Quarter Life. You've never heard of it. The guy who did 30 something, Ed Zwick. Oh, yeah. I think that's I
Scott Galloway · 34:20
love show.
Kara Swisher · 34:21
Right. 30 something. But he had a show that was, I think, YouTube only, called Quarter Life, and it was short fifteen minute shows. And at the time, it failed. But, boy, I remember thinking this is the way... You know, and I... Same thing with Jeff Katzenberg. Like, it was right. It just was wrong at the time. But this Quarter Life was really... Go back and find it if you can because it was an attempt at short form video drama over these... Quarter life was people who were 25 years old, so... And they were all attractive and fucking each other. But, it was really interesting, and it was far too early for people's tastes to get there, but now it has. I watch mostly short form video now, I have to say.
Scott Galloway · 35:01
Where do you watch it?
Kara Swisher · 35:02
Oh, on on threads or Instagram, usually. I don't like TikTok. It's too... But I I I like the pace of Instagram, I have to say. Anyway, if I'm watching short form video, they're quite good.
Scott Galloway · 35:15
The sexiest thing you can say in your thirties is, I already took tomorrow off. Anyway,
Kara Swisher · 35:22
I have a prediction. It's... It sort of dovetails because of what Scott was talking about and because the economics just don't work. It... They don't work, everybody. Hollywood consolidation, just, you know, not just AI, but how everything is made is gonna... With these new owners, there's gonna be more deals. And I know you're all horrified about Netflix, but get ready, my friends. There's so much going to happen. And there are questions of creativity and how people get paid, but there's just gonna be less people and to make it. And it's it's it's the end. This is this is that that moment for Hollywood. It happened already, but it's really happening now. And you're gonna see enormous consolidation. The government could push it back as much as you want, but you're not farmers, by the way. You're not getting 12,000,000,000 in bailouts the way Trump will do that. You will not get bailouts. You will just be... Get gone. And so I think this this Netflix Warner thing is inevitable, Paramount. If it doesn't get us, it's gonna have to merge. Comcast's gonna have to buy something else. Disney's gotta move. Know? And all the tech companies, if they wanna stay in this area, need more stuff for AI. Imagine a world like Scott talks about this AI meter. Like, hey. I like West Wing. I'd like another season. Like, they can do that. They will be able to do that, and it will be, at first, stupid, and then later be very good. And so you're gonna see all manner of stuff having to do with AI being fed into all these things. And, you know, even though the Paramount people can't give specifics of what's happening because they haven't thought of it, they just like to say the word AI a lot over and over again, there are gonna... This is a... This is an industry ripe for this kind of thing. Too bad. I'm sorry. I feel bad for you, but thanks for the movies. And by the way, wicked 375,000,000. Rookie. Okay.
Scott Galloway · 37:05
Streaming has sort of been the zeitgeist of my life. It used to be Netflix and chilling. Now my age, it's HBO Max and lower your expectations.
Kara Swisher · 37:13
You know, I think you're online a lot more. You watch a lot of shortplum video. I can tell.
Scott Galloway · 37:16
I do. Because you I do.
Kara Swisher · 37:17
You know? You you you put them out a lot, and so do I. 100%. I could watch... I can't I can't sit for a show now. I like to watch them on TV. I have a harder time. Although, again, Pluribus, I love it.
Scott Galloway · 37:28
Oh my god. I've I've been forced to watch the worst program in the world. It's with Shiv from Succession about a kidnapping.
Kara Swisher · 37:35
Oh, I heard that was good.
Scott Galloway · 37:37
It's awful. These people are so awful. It's all these rich... It's like it's like a chamber of commerce show on... Everyone in Chicago is rich and has amazing homes. It's a it's a app for Chicago.
Kara Swisher · 37:47
Okay. But who forced you? Who has put you a cock or an orange in front of the TV?
Scott Galloway · 37:51
Someone keeps putting it on my fucking TV, and I I get drawn into it. You just
Kara Swisher · 37:55
don't watch it.
Scott Galloway · 37:56
And then I got sucked into another one, the evil or the devil inside of me where
Kara Swisher · 38:00
Oh, yeah.
Scott Galloway · 38:00
I gotta give it. Claire Danes
Kara Swisher · 38:02
The beast in me.
Scott Galloway · 38:02
Her chin should be nominated for an Oscar. Her chin starts vibrating when she's emotional. It's literally like... It is her... Such her go to.
Kara Swisher · 38:10
I love it. Yeah. I love Claire... Everything Claire Danes does fantastically. Yeah. She's very Anyhow, I'm so sorry you're being forced to watch these things. Alright, Scott. One... Someday you will be, actually. That's another trend. That will be for next year. One more quick break, and then it's time for predictions, host's choice.
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Kara Swisher · 40:37
Okay, Scott. Now is the time to make a purchase on whatever we want. The world is our oysters, by the way. Send oysters. We love them. I'm gonna go first. Okay?
Scott Galloway · 40:46
Okay.
Kara Swisher · 40:46
I'm gonna go first. As I said, as you noted, you've got Claire Danes on the beast to me. You got Rhea Seahorn in, Pluribus, and there's a new hunting wives coming. They're not just difficult. Lesbians are murderous. Okay? There is gonna... There's gonna be so much lesbian content, angry lesbians with guns, angry lesbians who are upset, angry lesbians who are fighting the hive mind. I just... This is a trend that I like. I like lesbians running shit and taking names and shutting people down. And I love... My... Rhea Seahorn on as Carol, hello, Carol, is my favorite character of all time. I... Everyone's like, oh, she's such a ass, and I'm like, I love her. So more angry, dyspeptic, go fuck yourself, lesbians, for 2026. That's how I feel. Thank you.
Scott Galloway · 41:40
I... I'm a big fan of streaming video with lesbian content.
Kara Swisher · 41:44
Well, go watch it because it's sexy as fuck. Let me just Yes. It is.
Scott Galloway · 41:49
Called? Who's in it?
Kara Swisher · 41:49
Malin Ackerman, Britney Snow. There are guns. There's a lot of lesbian sex the way kind you like is I can
Scott Galloway · 41:56
see it twice.
Kara Swisher · 41:56
I'm just saying. I'm just saying angry, gun toting, dyspeptic, fuck the hive mind, I don't like AI lesbians are the trend of 2026. Thank you.
Scott Galloway · 42:08
Alright. Mine... Mine's not as cool as this. Mhmm. Best investment you don't have access to is TikTok. Oh, yeah. Essentially
Kara Swisher · 42:17
Did you get shares? Have you gotten in there yet?
Scott Galloway · 42:19
Well, no. I'm a Democrat. So it's going to Dell, some Saudi person. I forget who it's going to, but it's not going to it's not going to anyone who wants it or anyone who's a democrat. But they're basically... Trump's forcing them to sell it for 14,000,000,000. If you think about the fact that 50% of the earnings have to go back to China, it's effectively a valuation of 28,000,000,000. If you assign the same multiple that you would assign to Alphabet or Meta, it's worth a 120,000,000,000. So effectively, these guys are gonna buy something and then get three to 400% return within twelve months. This is pure socialism meets cronyism meets autocracy. But, again, it's it's happening.
Kara Swisher · 43:00
But you know it's unfair for the Ellisons not to get everything. Anyway... Sorry. That's a good one. So you won't get any. There's no way you can scooch your way in there.
Scott Galloway · 43:09
You usually scooch your
Kara Swisher · 43:10
way in.
Scott Galloway · 43:11
Not on this one.
Kara Swisher · 43:12
Really?
Scott Galloway · 43:12
Yeah. No. You can't.
Kara Swisher · 43:13
It's only for,
Scott Galloway · 43:15
friends at front. Literally. Dells in it. Yeah. It's... Pots. Yeah. You don't you don't you don't have access.
Kara Swisher · 43:22
Amazing. You don't even get a lot of other taste.
Scott Galloway · 43:25
I'm I'm allowed to be on TikTok. I'm starting to fucking hate TikTok, by the way.
Kara Swisher · 43:31
Me too. I gotta tell you, that's another prediction. I think Mark Zuckerberg makes a better product. I hate
Scott Galloway · 43:37
to say that. You like threads and reels more?
Kara Swisher · 43:40
I like them. They're very pleasing. They're very pleasant. I have a great time. I find news. I I still like blue sky too, but, I have to say
Scott Galloway · 43:48
I'm on blue sky almost never now as I know. As your usage.
Kara Swisher · 43:51
Because they yell at you a lot. They yell at you. It's... I mean Do
Scott Galloway · 43:54
they yell at me? God. Thank god I'm not on there. I can't handle
Kara Swisher · 43:56
it right now. Yell at you. It's the left yelling at you over there. The right is yelling at someone at Twitter. The right is actually threatening.
Scott Galloway · 44:02
I... I'm not on Twitter. Is it really... Do they... I I assume they're not even talking about us because I'm not over there.
Kara Swisher · 44:08
No. They are. They... I I dropped in the other... Was like, oh, you fuckers. Like, oh, go away. We don't care about you. We broke up with you.
Scott Galloway · 44:15
So just back to TikTok, US, at the price that these investors, these Republican donors are getting it, it's valuing TikTok US at less than this company called Extra Space Storage, seven eleven, Carnival Cruises, Ryanair, or Kellogg's. So, wow, what a great deal. Right? And if you look at this thing, again, if you just do the math here, it's just it's just insane what they're gonna get to buy this thing at. Anyways, I'm really pissed off about this.
Kara Swisher · 44:45
Let's please, by all means, give Warner the Ellisons because they don't get enough.
Scott Galloway · 44:48
Their their US ad revenue is 12,000,000,000. You get a a 10 x multiple price of sales of Alphabet, which isn't growing as fast as TikTok US. Yep. It's worth a $120,000,000,000, and they're getting it for 28. I
Kara Swisher · 44:59
These grifters. These grif... Scott's mad. He's not in on it, really.
Scott Galloway · 45:03
Yeah. That's right.
Kara Swisher · 45:05
Anyway, Scott, that is the show. Your instructions are to go watch hunting wise. You'll be happy. Happy New Year to everybody. We've had a great year this year at Pivot, and we love you, and we look forward to more in 2026. Please read us out.
— Predictions segment ends —
Scott Galloway · 45:20
Today's show was produced by Lara Nayman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin,
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Scott Galloway · 45:31
Chuck Cross, Vox Media's executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York
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Scott Galloway · 45:39
the magazine, nymag.com/pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
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