Dec 30, 2025 · Episode 680 · Predictions episode

Pivot Predictions: Scott’s Big Tech Stock Pick, The Next Bailout, and President JD Vance?

8 predictions · 0–0 · — accuracy

Scott's predictions8

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In 2026, the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks will undergo a major downward rerating because China floods the US market with cheap open-weight AI models (AI dumping), undercutting OpenAI and other US AI firms.
“So, anyways, I think we're gonna see a massive rerating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China.”
Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
Not due yetDue Dec 31, 2026
In 2026, the biggest shareholder gains tied to AI will come not from AI model/infrastructure companies but from AI application companies, specifically Waymo (autonomous driving) and Amazon (AI plus robotics).
“I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI. It'll be an AI application, specifically autonomous, specifically Waymo. And as you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon, and we'll come back to that.”
Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
Not due yetDue Dec 31, 2026
Amazon will be Scott Galloway's top-performing 'big tech stock pick' for 2026, outperforming other Magnificent Seven stocks due to margin expansion from AI and robotics investments in its retail business.
“But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon.”
Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
Not due yetDue Dec 31, 2026
The US government will provide a bailout-style support program (e.g., government-backed debt for chip/data-center purchases, framed similarly to a 'chips act') for major AI companies including OpenAI, Nvidia, and Microsoft.
“But the next bailout is gonna be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella.”
Politics · Checkable · by Dec 30, 2026 (inferred)
Not due yetDue Dec 30, 2026
Either Polymarket or Kalshi (prediction market companies) will go public via IPO in 2026, and it will be regarded as one of the best IPOs of the year.
“And I also think that they will be two of the biggest... One or both of them is gonna go public in 2026, and it's gonna be one of the biggest... It's gonna be one of the best IPOs of '26.”
M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
Not due yetDue Dec 31, 2026
Las Vegas-based casino/gaming companies (e.g., Caesars) will continue to financially struggle in 2026, with capital increasingly shifting away from Las Vegas toward alternatives like online prediction markets.
“So you're really gonna see these firms struggle, and you're gonna see an enormous transition of capital.”
Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 30, 2026 (inferred)
Not due yetDue Dec 30, 2026
In the near term (2026), AI will significantly reduce Hollywood's production costs, and short-form video platforms (including Chinese mini-drama apps) will gain substantial market share against traditional film/TV content.
“AI, which everyone is expecting, is about to accelerate in terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood, and b, I think these short form video platforms that I had not heard of before are about to make a real a a real dent.”
Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
Not due yetDue Dec 31, 2026
The buyers of TikTok's US operations (at the Trump-forced ~$14 billion valuation) will realize a 300-400% return on their investment within twelve months of the deal.
“So effectively, these guys are gonna buy something and then get three to 400% return within twelve months.”
M&A · Checkable · by Dec 30, 2026
Not due yetDue Dec 30, 2026