Scott Galloway · 37:13
Blogs or whatever it is, maybe you don't aren't held to the same standards, because quite frankly, you can't inflict the same damage. So I think your term is the right one. It needs to be reformed, but there's no reason why we can't accommodate or if you will, try and give companies small business has been the engine of growth. Two thirds of new jobs are created by small business. And small business has been kicked in the nuts because big companies have figured out a way to overrun government, and it hurts small business. And we need to return to a regulation and a tax system that helps the engine of our economy in that small and medium sized business. They don't have they really don't have much of a seat at the table anymore. So I think you can get around this. I think you can
Kara Swisher · 37:59
get They don't have an ability, just not just that, but a lot of... You know, I I remember interviewing the CEO of Reddit, and he... They were doing some of this stuff that Facebook and Twitter are doing right now, and they were like, we just don't have the people. We don't have the resources to do this. It just puts us out of business. You know? And the same thing with all these other small companies. And so, you know, some don't have the problem like the Snapchat, which is smaller if you can compare it to these other large ones. But you don't also wanna have Facebook and Google spending their time doing this either. Like, you have to figure out a way that they have adequate liability for the things on their platform, and at the same time, doesn't allow, like, a zillion lawyers to just descend on these industries and just ruin them. Like, they're... We have figured out liability in every other industry. We can figure it out here. Like, he... I don't know. I just... I feel like everyone's like, you have the tech people going, oh, no. You have the... You know? I cannot believe Clarence Thomas commented. Literally. I... I'm like, I'm sure he has trouble turning on his iPhone. And and, you know, it's not something to be bandied about. It has to be, like, smart. And people like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz know that. They just... It's it's also not a winner with voters. Like, two thirty. Like, come on. Like, like, let's just do policy here. Let's just do policy. How about that? That would be really great if we could figure out... Including the Biden administration. If they just jump on this bandwagon, it's just redonkulous, like, anybody doing this. It's an important industry. We should regulate it properly, and we should all sit down and figure out the right way to do it. And that's... You know, unfortunately, what happens is now we've gotten in this cartoon thing is they, you know, they censored it. Oh, they're keeping conservative voices. Oh, this, so that. It's really... All it needs is some really smart people sitting down and figuring out the rules of the road.
Scott Galloway · 39:41
By the way, I thought of you, just because I'm so old, I occasionally tune in and watch the, confirmation hearings and Ted Cruz's questioning of Amy Coney Barrett when he asked her about remote learning and piano lessons. I'm like, let me get this. If this was a male support How come you didn't ask how come you didn't ask Brett Kavanaugh about piano lessons? I know. Like, I thought, oh my god. Hope Kara's watching this.
Kara Swisher · 40:07
No. I didn't watch it. I just did. Like, she didn't answer any questions. Very deft not answering questions.
Scott Galloway · 40:11
Yeah. Well, I don't know what happened
Kara Swisher · 40:12
couple me. Of times. Yeah. But for the most part, she was... She she handled it. She did a rope a dope with them, and that's it worked. It's gonna work. It doesn't really matter. She could get... You know, I can't imagine what she could do to get up there without this thing is go... This train is going down the tracks, and it's headed right towards the Supreme Court, and nothing's gonna stop it. And it's it's... I don't know what she could have done. I don't yelled, I like beer. I don't know what she could have done. Something. I like beer. She reminds me... I went to Georgetown, and she reminds me of a lot of people I went to school with. Very smart, very religious, very... She's very clever. She did a clever job at that and sort of handled it pretty well for herself. Whether whether they should have jammed it through or not is a whole different discussion, but she certainly... There was certainly nothing. None of them had, you know, had a glove on her, I thought.
Scott Galloway · 41:03
No. I think our only hope our only I won't say hope. The only chance this thing gets derailed is if there's more super spreader events and eight 75 year old Republicans can't make the vote. I don't Yep. I don't see any other don't We'll see. Who knows? Yeah. Strange word.
Kara Swisher · 41:19
The only thing she did mess up is not knowing the First Amendment, all the protections. Do you know them, Scott? Can you say them off the top of your head?
Scott Galloway · 41:24
No. But I didn't win as many awards as you in journalism school. Ahead. What are they, Kara?
Kara Swisher · 41:30
They're oppressed. Freedom of press, religion, assembly, to be able to air your grievances with the government, and then speech. Thank you.
Scott Galloway · 41:43
Think you and I Redress. Think you and I are totally exercising our right around the airing of grievances pretty much twice a week.
Kara Swisher · 41:51
Yes. Well, to grieve to the congress to to to do that. You're right. Correct. We get we get all those rights. We get all those rights. Anyway We do. Scott, we're gonna take a break. We'll be back for predictions. Chronic migraine is 15 or more headache days a
[Ad break]
Kara Swisher · 43:01
Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit botoxchronicmigraine.com, or call 4 to learn more.
[Ad break]
— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 43:34
Okay, Scott. Prediction. Prediction. Your big cities will be back, but that's not really a prediction. We'll see. We'll see about that. That's gonna be a while.
Scott Galloway · 43:42
So in my blog, No Mercy, No Malice tomorrow, I'm writing. So I talk a lot about stocks that I think are overvalued and are stocks that I think are menaces to our our society or sometimes they're both balanced here. Anyways, I'm
Kara Swisher · 43:56
How's usually that doing?
Scott Galloway · 43:57
It's holding. It's holding. It's you know, see. Went down a bit. Now it's back up. It's holding. Okay. Anyways, but I think so I like to take a break and occasionally talk about a stock or a company that's going to come public. And we've talked about this a lot. I think Airbnb is going to be the most valuable company in travel and hospitality and leisure in the next twelve months when it goes public. And I've been looking at this thing. If you think about it, it is the most it is now, as we sit here, the strongest brand in the world of hospitality. If you type in Marriott Orlando, Airbnb Orlando, Hilton Orlando, and you do that for every major tourist city in the world, Airbnb either has more searches or is number two in any market. And the hotel market is so fragmented. There's no global brand except in luxury, and those aren't big businesses. It now has more hotel rooms than the top five competitors. It it will do about 6,000,000,000 next year in revenue. It's coming back stronger. They're gonna leap. They're gonna escalate to profitability because a crisis is a terrible thing to waste, and they cut out a ton of fat and a ton of non core projects.
Kara Swisher · 45:07
They did.
Scott Galloway · 45:08
This thing, six to twelve months of the IPO, is going to pull a Tesla. And that is it's not going to be it's not only going to be the most valuable hotel company in the world. It's going to be worth more than in the next three or four combined. And here is what is just so powerful about Airbnb, and that is, at the end of his career, Muhammad Ali found himself with less money than he'd like, so he agreed to fight at the age of 38. Larry Holmes, who was 30 and was undefeated. And during his pre fight physical, Muhammad Ali couldn't hop on one foot and was slurring his speech and couldn't attach the tip of his finger to his nose. He already had preliminary It's heart of probably one of the great crimes in sports. Anyone who approved that fight should have probably been incarcerated.
Kara Swisher · 45:53
They don't care.
Scott Galloway · 45:54
And what you have is Airbnb comes into the ring as Larry Holmes, and the hotel industry can't touch its nose. It has been
Kara Swisher · 46:03
Expect that metaphor.
Scott Galloway · 46:04
Well, the hotel industry has been so deeply impaired. Name a hotel industry right now that is leaning forward to making investments in technology and brand. Are all licking their wounds because they all have this really awful nuisance And called a Airbnb can not only variabilize its costs down, it has no mortgages. And the thing about Airbnb is it doesn't have the emissions of an Uber. Everyone says, well, is like Uber. It monetizes fallow assets. Not really. Uber monetizes and arbitrages the fact that the wealthiest nation in the world has decided to create an underclass. That's what it's arbitraging. There is a special place in hell for Uber management. And by the way, it is going to have really shitty snacks. And Facebook
Kara Swisher · 46:48
What's a shitty snack?
Scott Galloway · 46:50
Facebook, anything healthy. My firm Carrot Carrot That's not why we come to work.
Kara Swisher · 46:56
Anyway Dry carrot
Scott Galloway · 46:57
sticks. Facebook arbitrages the tribal nature and rage we get from certain relationships from people who don't have to meet you in person or or bots or... That weaponize your primal instincts. Anyways, Airbnb really doesn't doesn't
Kara Swisher · 47:10
It's a delightful service.
Scott Galloway · 47:11
Doesn't weaponize anybody. It's arbitraging It
Kara Swisher · 47:14
had issues. They've they've they've started to clean them up, and they certainly had left a lot of their regular renters. People had mortgaged their things. They've got all kinds of issues around cities and things like that.
[Ad break]
Scott Galloway · 47:24
aren't solvable. I mean, there's things around taxes. They gotta start paying their fair share of taxes. There's there's an issue around housing. People, you know, people pulling
Kara Swisher · 47:31
Now that's not as big as
Scott Galloway · 47:32
pulling a Johnny Depp and partying and fussing and whatever. That's nothing that doesn't happen in hotels. And they say, crimes are happening in Airbnb. Guess what? I've heard that crimes happen in hotels. Yeah. This thing, Kara, is gonna do $6,000,000,000 next year, and you say, well, it's not a SaaS company. It's not a hotel company. You know what
Kara Swisher · 47:47
it's I agree.
Scott Galloway · 47:48
If you think about global company that's asset light, huge margins
Kara Swisher · 47:52
Good brand. Nice brand.
Scott Galloway · 47:54
Global Global brand. Brand.
Kara Swisher · 47:55
Nice marketing. And, actually, I have to tell you, I have very few problems. I mean, there are issues around racism on the platform as it, again, is on Nextdoor and different places like that. And they've been trying to fix that, but I have to say it's a full... It's almost a flawless experience. It's like Amazon and delivery. Sort of really hard to argue with it. We just rented one when we went and got married in New York, and, it was flawless. I don't I I don't know how to explain it. It was so flawless. I think Every step of the way, was
Scott Galloway · 48:22
flawless. Talk about momentum. A couple things. One, talk about everyone's like, well, they're going to get hurt in the pandemic. The pandemic is the wind in their sails because if you're freaked out about a virus or pathogen, guess what hotel room doesn't have an elevator, doesn't have common areas, doesn't Oh, have a it's called an Airbnb. And by the way, they've tapped into this market
Kara Swisher · 48:43
This local, local
Scott Galloway · 48:44
It's so underserved, and that is, if you're like me and you travel with an entourage, if you want to stay at a hotel, it's just you've got get three or four rooms. It's just prohibitively expensive. More people want to eat, cook themselves. Everything about this thing is just such an incredible juggernaut. There's going to be more supply because people are going to need more reasons to monetize their assets. So the key here, though, is I was looking for a comparable. And my tendency, like everybody else's, compare it to a SaaS company, and it's worth 70 times revenue. Well, that's not really accurate. It's not a recurring revenue company, which, by the way, it should be a recurring revenue bundle. But that's another talk show. The company you compare it to, it's benchmarked for valuation metrics. All right. Global brand, asset light, incredible margins. Airbnb's comparables are Visa and MasterCard, which trade they're the only companies in hospitality and travel, you could argue, that have the kind of global equity of Airbnb. They trade at 20 to 25 times revenues. I think Airbnb could do $6,000,000,000 next year, be profitable, trade at 20 to 25,000,000,000 and be worth $100 to $150,000,000,000 It was $15,000,000,000 just six months ago.
Kara Swisher · 49:54
Scott's going all in on Airbnb. I like your
Scott Galloway · 49:58
is going to be worth more than the three to five biggest hotel companies combined
Kara Swisher · 50:03
within a year or so buying hotels. Alright. That's very good, Scott. I like it. I like it,
[Ad break]
Kara Swisher · 50:10
which is relatively soon, I think. I think it's probably... Might be before the end of the year.
Scott Galloway · 50:14
Gangster. Absolute gangster.
— Predictions segment ends —
Kara Swisher · 50:17
Alright. That's the show. You know the drill. Email us with questions about companies and trends in tech and business at pivot@VoxMedia.com. We'd love to answer them. We'd love to have them in your voice. That was Rebecca reading that last question. Rebecca Sinanis. Scott, I will see you Monday. We have we have lots going on on Monday, and we'll see you post, these town halls tonight and any other news of the weekend, but please read us out.
Scott Galloway · 50:40
Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Fernando Finete engineered this episode. Erica Anderson is Pivot's executive producer. Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. Or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or frankly wherever you listen to podcasts. And if you like the show, please recommend it to a friend. Kara, have a great weekend, and we'll see everybody next week.
[Ad break]
Scott Galloway · 52:12
See store
[Ad break]
