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Each one links to the moment Scott said it and to the evidence behind its grade.
Each one links to the moment Scott said it and to the evidence behind its grade.
151 of 1,124 predictionsClear all
“I think this thing sends the stock up, you know, 5% or whatever.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“It breaks the zero to 60 claim.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“The zero to 60 claim breaks the Internet.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“The stock pops, and no one... Not one paying customer has a roadster in their driveway by the end of twenty twenty seven.”
Oct 16, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2027
“Within five years, whatever we're calling this, Time Warner, Skydance, HBO Max, Joey Bag of Donuts, this thing will be sold again or split up for parts.”
Oct 9, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2031
“He'll be man of the year.”
Oct 9, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“Within within the next twelve or twenty four months, Netflix is gonna buy or partner with a creator network.”
Oct 6, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 6, 2028
“I still think there's more news here to come out on why they decided to why they decided to pull because the numbers on the company were really strong.”
Oct 2, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 2, 2027 (inferred)
“I think Apple is about to employ or deploy their strategy for shareholder value, which I refer to as second mouse. And that is in your home, and you reference this a lot. I think trust is a pretty big deal. And I do think Apple has a lot of trust. Also, the design and feel and self expressive benefit of the Apple brand, I think, fits really well in a home. It just feels to me like a lot of first apartments are gonna get gifts of this as this thing from parents and people.”
Oct 2, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 2, 2027 (inferred)
“I actually think him cutting layers because Yeah. Innovation is is inversely correlated with the number of people who can say no is a really good signal. It's not fun. It's really interesting. Very rarely do new CEOs come in in a company like Apple that's creating more cash flow than any company in history with exception of NVIDIA and start cutting. I actually think that's a very good sign for shareholders.”
Oct 2, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 2, 2027 (inferred)
“The muse charm the muse charm ships, sells poorly, and quietly dies by mid twenty twenty seven”
Sep 25, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Jun 30, 2027
“along with these these niche VC backed universities.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jun 30, 2027
“Trump TV Trump TV goes dark or gets rebranded within six months.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Either/or · Checkable · by Mar 25, 2027
“An Allison led group is gonna bring in money from The Gulf, but it's not gonna bring in Elon.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 25, 2027 (inferred)
“An Allison led group is gonna bring in money from The Gulf, but it's not gonna bring in Elon.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Mar 25, 2027 (inferred)
Only if: Trump TV brings in Elon Musk as an investor or partner
“I I think if they brought in Elon, I think you would see names even bigger than yours say, I'm leaving. Join you on the on the exit bus.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Media · Conditional · Judgment call · by Mar 25, 2027 (inferred)
“I doubt it gets done by the end of the year because of all of the different.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
Only if: If Anthropic's IPO happens at all
“I gotta think that if it happens, it's gonna be q one.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Mar 31, 2027
“This will be the most anticipated IPO in history more so.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2027 (inferred)
“Nature nature doesn't ask the coral and the fish if they love each other, but there's going to have to be some sort of cooperation and detente and reasonable sense of safety as arbitrated, I would think, by a regulator.”
Sep 22, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Sep 22, 2027 (inferred)
“We're gonna see a nation state or a bloc ban American frontier models.”
Sep 18, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Sep 18, 2027 (inferred)
“Times man of the year has already decided. It's Mark Carney.”
Sep 18, 2026 · Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“So he'll probably get some increased member payouts, but he won't get FIFA.”
Jul 31, 2026 · Other · Checkable · by Jul 31, 2027 (inferred)
“You're seeing the market in AI bifurcate into German automobile, high high price, high margin Mhmm. Companies that won't be as relevant is the Japanese or the low cost manufacturers, which will be Chinese AI. I think China, quite frankly, I hate to say it, at a certain level has won AI. We just haven't woken up to that yet.”
Jul 24, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Jul 24, 2027 (inferred)
“And then two, you're about to see the clip economy take over our TVs. I think the biggest show on television, from Netflix or someone else is going to be a sixty minute compilation of two and three minute videos similar to what you see on Reels or TikTok. I think that's about to wash over the traditional streamers.”
Jul 24, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Jul 24, 2027 (inferred)
“So my prediction is that OpenAI is gonna buy Sierra and make... Install Brett Taylor as CEO.”
Jul 17, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2027 (inferred)
“So my prediction is that OpenAI is gonna buy Sierra and make... Install Brett Taylor as CEO.”
Jul 17, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2027 (inferred)
Only if: OpenAI announces Brett Taylor as CEO
“the valuation of the company goes up a $100,000,000,000. They get 20 x on the acquisition price.”
Jul 17, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 17, 2027 (inferred)
“So what's the prediction? All eight or 10 of those companies, a basket of them, down 20 to 40% in the next twelve months.”
Jul 3, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Jul 3, 2027
“an activist is gonna show up and force Evan either to sell or spin the specs division.”
Jun 19, 2026 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Oct 19, 2026
“You're about to see, quite frankly, you're about to see 20 new hedge funds from former SpaceXanthropic and OpenAI employees.”
Jun 19, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 19, 2027 (inferred)
“you're about to see revenues at the 100 biggest podcasts go up 20 to 30%.”
Jun 12, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 12, 2027 (inferred)
“Mean, you're about to see the podcast universe have the tsunami of money just to say, hey Joe, we'll give you $10,000,000 if you decide that you only use OpenAI.”
Jun 12, 2026 · Media · Judgment call · by Jun 12, 2027 (inferred)
“is gonna create the ultimate false flag signal of pricing on the day of this”
Jun 12, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 12, 2026 (inferred)
“The next will be Amazon.”
Jun 5, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Jun 5, 2027 (inferred)
“Then it might be NVIDIA. Then it might be Apple.”
Jun 5, 2026 · Markets · Either/or · Checkable · by Jun 5, 2027 (inferred)
“I bet the CFOs of Apple, Microsoft, Coreweave, NVIDIA have all got their pencils out and have”
Jun 5, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jun 5, 2027 (inferred)
Only if: the war in Ukraine ends
“Oh, yeah. They'll they'll attract so much capital assuming”
May 29, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 29, 2031 (inferred)
“I'm... I just can't help it. I don't think SpaceX is gonna price near $2,000,000,000,000.”
May 22, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think you can expect a deal between The US and Cuba in the coming months.”
May 22, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 22, 2026
“I don't say there's light at the end of the tunnel. Think the end is nigh.”
May 22, 2026 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 22, 2027 (inferred)
“Basically, my prediction is Kinmen And Matsu Islands are gonna be invaded in the next twenty four months or seized,”
May 19, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by May 19, 2028
“I don't think an amphibious assault of Taiwan is feasible.”
May 19, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by May 19, 2028 (inferred)
“I think a soft economic blockade is coming for the following reasons.”
May 19, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by May 19, 2028 (inferred)
“And after an initial pop, I think it'll fall.”
May 15, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Nov 15, 2026 (inferred)
“this feels like one of those bad Chinese firms that could just go down 95%.”
May 15, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by May 15, 2027 (inferred)
“In an era of AI and compliance AI where you could spin up the legal documents and have people sign them And with PayPal, I think you're gonna see in the next twelve to thirty six months, someone pulled us off where they say, hey. Who wants to buy Estee Lauder, or who wants to buy... You know, they'll start with a small stock. It wouldn't be Estee Lauder because that's too big a company, but it'll start with a small company that goes out of business. They'll say, okay. Dick's Sporting... Whatever it is. And someone talented, who's very charismatic, who will weaponize social media and AI to collect legal pledges for funds and will buy something. Think crowdfunding gonna happen.”
May 8, 2026 · M&A · Judgment call · by May 8, 2029
“So think... So Intel is up fourfold, and I think it's up... I'm sorry. It's up fivefold. It's up... It's it's quintupled over the last year. And I think it's about... My prediction is it's gonna shit the bed because Amazon is”
May 1, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by May 1, 2027
“That's a good one. Is over, and Intel is gonna be one of the worst performing stocks in the tech sector over the next six to twelve months.”
May 1, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by May 1, 2027
Only if: The SpaceX IPO goes out (occurs)
“Yeah. I think... So my my prediction is that when the SpaceX value... When the SpaceX IPO goes out, you will see an almost... Not an equivalent, but a proportionate decline in the value of Tesla.”
Apr 24, 2026 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2027 (inferred)
“In addition, Robotaxi and Optimus are long shot bets that may not pay off for five years, if at all.”
Apr 24, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2031
“I think the notion that you're gonna have a robot in your house bringing you your soup or whatever, I just don't... I don't I don't see that.”
Apr 24, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 24, 2031 (inferred)
“My my prediction was gonna be Anthropic IPS before OpenAI, but that's boring, and I've already talked about Anthropic.”
Apr 17, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Apr 17, 2027 (inferred)
“New bird, if you will, what I call New Bird, will soon be no bird.”
Apr 17, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Apr 17, 2027 (inferred)
“Well, was originally... Get this, Kara. It was originally expected around 2026, and now they're saying it's not shipping before 2027. Guess what? It's never gonna ship.”
Mar 27, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Mar 27, 2028 (inferred)
Only if: unless Democrats consolidate behind fewer candidates instead of splitting the vote under California's jungle primary system
“We are about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And while no one was looking, we're about to elect a president of the fourth largest economy who's gonna be a Republican. Because of the jungle voting construct in California.”
Mar 27, 2026 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“my prediction is, essentially, I think the markets this year are gonna go down.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“I think I think we're Uh-oh. I think we're on the precipice of, like, a $10,000,000,000,000 wipeout.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't think oil is gonna... I think oil is not gonna be at a $150, but it's gonna be it's it's gonna be sustainably higher. It's gonna be elevated through the rest of the year.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“And inflation in some markets reignites.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“The Fed can't cut rates.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think there's a decent chance that Pakistan and Egypt default and as well as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, dollar denominated debt, very energy dependent, very fragile economies”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“The foreign bank, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, all hugely exposed, credit spreads blow out, and we get sort of a... Not this to the same extent, but we get an o eight style, which bank is next moment,”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“the only thing that probably goes up is canned goods and ammunition and Chevron.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“So in other words, it could be like an o eight shock, but the problem is we we have less ammunition for a bailout.”
Mar 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“I think that just as SaaS companies have been oversold, some of these PE or what they call business development or private credit companies have been oversold.”
Feb 27, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 27, 2027 (inferred)
“I think the sale or the decline on these companies, Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow, I think it's been overdone. And that a basket of the companies that have endured this SaaS apocalypse are to do really well. I think it's a great investment. Because if you look at their multiple on free cash flow, they've never been lower. They've never been cheaper.”
Feb 20, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Feb 20, 2027 (inferred)
“Probably the most anticipated was the IPO of OpenAI in 2026 sometime this year or early twenty seven.”
Feb 13, 2026 · Tech · Checkable · by Mar 31, 2027
“They'll dramatic... In my opinion, they'll dramatically scale back their capital... Their CapEx.”
Feb 13, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 13, 2027 (inferred)
“I think there's a ton of anecdotal evidence showing that while AI may live up to its potential, the market cap of the biggest players this year is about to throw up, which isn't to say that similar in 2000 when the market cap of Amazon went down 95%, it's still not gonna be an unbelievable company. But I think we're about to see a dramatic recalibration in the markets, which includes OpenAI's IPO plans getting queered.”
Feb 13, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“You are gonna start to see, over the course of the next twelve to twenty four months, entire nation say, you know what? Maybe we don't need YouTube here. Maybe Meta should not be here.”
Feb 6, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 6, 2028
“it's going to go up the food chain pretty soon. You're going to see a large nation say, you know what? I don't think we need Google.”
Feb 6, 2026 · Tech · Judgment call · by Feb 6, 2028 (inferred)
“Big countries are gonna decide, you know what? We no longer wanna use Goldman Sachs and McKinsey to do our banking.”
Feb 6, 2026 · Markets · Judgment call · by Feb 6, 2028 (inferred)
“Bottom line is my prediction is that I think we're about to see The US conduct a military strike on Iran.”
Jan 23, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 23, 2027 (inferred)
“Yeah. So we've been talking about Warner Brothers discovery. It's about to go into boring mode where they just try and get the CFIUS and antitrust and all the lawsuits and reviews, you know, for the next eighteen or twenty four months.”
Jan 16, 2026 · M&A · Checkable · by Jan 16, 2028
“The next thing that's gonna preoccupy us is there's gonna be most likely an activist because it's so bad, but Disney's gonna be put in play.”
Jan 16, 2026 · M&A · Judgment call · by Jan 16, 2027 (inferred)
“Then we gotta move. I don't. Yeah. Well, I'm gonna straight. I think they would just show up.”
Jan 13, 2026 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 13, 2027 (inferred)
“So, anyways, I think we're gonna see a massive rerating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI. It'll be an AI application, specifically autonomous, specifically Waymo. And as you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon, and we'll come back to that.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“But the next bailout is gonna be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Dec 30, 2026 (inferred)
“And I also think that they will be two of the biggest... One or both of them is gonna go public in 2026, and it's gonna be one of the biggest... It's gonna be one of the best IPOs of '26.”
Dec 30, 2025 · M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2026
“So you're really gonna see these firms struggle, and you're gonna see an enormous transition of capital.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 30, 2026 (inferred)
“AI, which everyone is expecting, is about to accelerate in terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood, and b, I think these short form video platforms that I had not heard of before are about to make a real a a real dent.”
Dec 30, 2025 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
“So effectively, these guys are gonna buy something and then get three to 400% return within twelve months.”
Dec 30, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Dec 30, 2026
“I think the woman who won the Nobel Peace Prize is gonna play a seminal role.”
Dec 12, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 12, 2026 (inferred)
“They're not gonna know how to respond to our invasion of Taiwan.”
Nov 25, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 25, 2026 (inferred)
“I'm now increasingly believing that the Democrats are supposed to take back the house. I think they're gonna take it back viciously.”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“I think this is gonna feel like the Republican wave under Gingrich.”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't think they'll go through,”
Nov 21, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 21, 2026 (inferred)
“And I say this will be the best performing stock, and this is why. Last year, I picked Alphabet. It's up 60% in the last year. Well year done. Thank you. Pat myself on the back. This year, my pick is probably gonna be Amazon, and that is it hasn't... It actually hasn't performed very well the last couple years.”
Oct 28, 2025 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 28, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: Amazon's enterprise value to EBITDA multiple does not change
“Amazon expects to save about, I think, about $13,000,000,000 from 2025 to 2027 as a result of automation. And assuming no change in Amazon's enterprise value to EBITDA multiple, as you can tell me, do a lot of work on this, that translates to roughly $200,000,000,000 extra in enterprise value.”
Oct 28, 2025 · Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2027
“So whereas ads in AWS have added all the margin, I actually think retail is about to be where they expand their margins.”
Oct 28, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 28, 2026 (inferred)
“I think they're gonna release a series of open source or open weight AI tools that crush or put real pressure on our magnificent 10 and take down our market and put us into a Western recession.”
Oct 24, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 24, 2026 (inferred)
“I think they're gonna release a series of open source or open weight AI tools that crush or put real pressure on our magnificent 10 and take down our market and put us into a Western recession.”
Oct 24, 2025 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 24, 2026 (inferred)
“The biggest trend in television over the next... Streaming media and broadcast television over the next two years is going to be podcast repurposed as TV shows.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Judgment call · by Oct 17, 2027
“I bet within twenty four to thirty six months, Netflix has three of the 10 biggest podcasts in the world, and they'll be owned and operated by Netflix.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 17, 2028
“Of the 50 biggest podcasts, within twelve months, 12 to 20 of them will be playing on TV.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 17, 2026
“So, anyways, the prediction is of the top 100 podcasts, 12 to 15 of them are gonna be playing on cable news and on streaming media within the next twelve to twenty four months.”
Oct 17, 2025 · Media · Checkable · by Oct 17, 2027
Only if: A Democratic administration takes power in the United States
“But my point is, as soon as there's... Under Biden, it couldn't happen, and if there's another democratic administration, it won't be allowed to happen. This is the window.”
Oct 3, 2025 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2029 (inferred)
“We're gonna see a Time Warner like acquisition that's gonna be unprecedented in scale and also a disaster.”
Sep 26, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Sep 26, 2026 (inferred)
“I think we're gonna see, and I said this last week, a series of not only the biggest M and A deals in history, but I think we're gonna see a company that in three to five years will be seen as the most disastrous M and A deal in history.”
Sep 26, 2025 · M&A · Judgment call · by Sep 26, 2030
“She's literally the first supreme court justice appointee of a democratic presidency.”
Aug 1, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2036 (inferred)
“I think the fix is in that what we're going to have is something resembling it'll be a kangaroo court where they took testimony and pretended to take it seriously, pretend they're pursuing the truth. And all evidence from Ghislaine Maxwell will show that the president, while was a friend and showed errors in judgment, was not involved in any illicit or illegal activity.”
Jul 25, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2029 (inferred)
“People vastly underestimate governor Newsom. He is the only one pushing back right now. I believe if I had to bet on anyone, he would be the president.”
Jul 25, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 20, 2029 (inferred)
“But anyways, whoever, thirty days before the the president... The next president is inaugurated, she will be pardoned.”
Jul 25, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Jan 20, 2029
“A woman will not be the Democratic nominee, and nor should she be.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
“The the Democratic nominee will not be under five foot ten. No president in the last hundred years has been under five foot ten.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
“We will have a female president. She will be a Republican,”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 1, 2060 (inferred)
“the democrats are not gonna take their chances on a gay man.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
“I I think it's gonna be J. D. Vance.”
Jun 13, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Aug 31, 2028 (inferred)
Only if: Alphabet is forced through antitrust action to spin off some of its businesses
“the likelihood of antitrust and a breakup, which I believe would actually be accretive to shareholders if they were forced to spin some of these companies because they would be unlocked from this conglomerate tax that the company is paying right now.”
May 23, 2025 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by May 23, 2027 (inferred)
“This first hundred days of the Trump administration, mostly using the vehicle of the Trump coin, will go down in history as the greatest grift in the history of our economy in terms of the amount of money stolen and the size of it over the shortest period.”
May 9, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 9, 2035
“And then another one, I think in the next twelve to twenty four months, we're going to see a spin prophylactically in big tech for the first time.”
Apr 25, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Apr 25, 2027
“In addition, we're gonna find out in somewhere between, you know, three years and nine months or sooner that the greatest criminal insider trading took place yesterday.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 11, 2029
Only if: A Democrat is elected president in the 2028 U.S. presidential election
“Nothing will happen until January 2029 if a Democrat is elected. Only if. Only if.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jan 20, 2029
“they're just, I think, gonna find dozens, if not hundreds of people who have a connection to the White House, who were given a wink and a nod and made millions of dollars engaging in mark manipulation or trading on nonmaterial... Nonpublic material information.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 11, 2029 (inferred)
“Duke will produce... Duke is the new Harvard. Duke will produce more presidents in the next fifty years than Harvard because presidents are one of two things.”
Apr 11, 2025 · Other · Judgment call · by Apr 11, 2075
“You're going to see a dramatic increase in the number of Chinese military bases on foreign soil.”
Mar 28, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Mar 28, 2028
“the organizations that will fill the void in The US are for profit organizations that over the medium and the long term will probably demand margin.”
Mar 28, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 28, 2028 (inferred)
“They'll get monopoly power on the jails and whatever, this part of the county or this part of the state. They will slowly raise the rates, and we will end up paying more for less.”
Mar 28, 2025 · Politics · Judgment call · by Mar 28, 2028 (inferred)
Only if: If Europe continues to unify, coordinate policy, and reduce bureaucratic/administrative burdens
“I believe this, in some ways, might be backs it. It might take England back into the European Union, and they need to coordinate, lower the bureaucracy, lower lower the the lack of... Or what I would say, the administrative state.”
Mar 18, 2025 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Mar 18, 2030 (inferred)
“I was even thinking just as YouTube has become the ultimate distribution platform in 2025, I think in '26, it's gonna be Reddit.”
Feb 14, 2025 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026
“The Pacific Palisades in five years is gonna be one of the nicest neighborhoods in America.”
Jan 14, 2025 · Other · Judgment call · by Jan 14, 2030
“What I believe is gonna happen is that that... Those good times and that unearned income is about to come to an end, and I think you're gonna see a lot of that capital flow to the new arbiter who get... Who who gets elected, and that is podcasts.”
Nov 15, 2024 · Media · Judgment call · by Nov 3, 2026 (inferred)
“I wonder if her political career's over, and she's gonna go be the head... The chair of a private equity firm and just make bank. I don't think she's... If I'm vice president Harris, why wouldn't she go be, like, chairman of the Carlyle Group, make a lot of money, and just enjoy her life?”
Nov 15, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
Only if: a Democratic president is elected next
“I wouldn't be surprised, Kara, if her... Okay. And this is what I think her next stop is. I think under the next democratic president, she becomes a supreme court justice. I think that is what her political future is.”
Nov 15, 2024 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2032 (inferred)
“I think there's a really decent chance. I think Intel is probably the ripest large... It's not large cap now. It's mid cap. It's the ripest candidate I've seen in a while for a take private.”
Nov 5, 2024 · M&A · Checkable · by Nov 5, 2026 (inferred)
“I think the latter is just getting started.”
Oct 23, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Oct 23, 2026 (inferred)
“We don't know if it's '97 or '99, though. But we know that by 2005, it's gonna be much bigger than it is now.”
Oct 23, 2024 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2031 (inferred)
“So I think we're about to undertake or we're beginning what I'd call the great rotation, and that is if since 2008, the capital flows... The market dynamics always trump individual performance.”
Oct 4, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 4, 2029
“And some, I think, that markets outside of The US are gonna outperform The US over the next three to five”
Oct 4, 2024 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 4, 2029
“I just wanna highlight again that I think that Melinda French Gates and... And I'll pose this as a prediction. And Mackenzie Scott are gonna kick off a wave of what it really means to give.”
May 31, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by May 31, 2027 (inferred)
“I do believe taxes are gonna go up dramatically because here's the thing. No one loses. No one loses when you start taxing people above a billion dollars in wealth.”
May 31, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by May 31, 2027 (inferred)
“My prediction is I think someone who's gonna go down in history as just an incredibly powerful role model for young people and a really fantastic American is the cofounder of Amazon, Mackenzie Scott.”
Mar 22, 2024 · Other · Judgment call · by Mar 22, 2034 (inferred)
“my prediction is that in ten or twenty years, we're gonna look back, and the greatest return on investment in this era wasn't an investment in NVIDIA. It wasn't even an investment in infrastructure. The greatest return on investment will be the $75,000,000,000 and the $92,000,000,000 that America and the EU, respectively, have invested in helping Ukraine push back on Russia.”
Feb 2, 2024 · Politics · Judgment call · by Feb 2, 2044
“My prediction is that Coinbase is the AOL of... You know, I said it. I I... The stock's up. I mean, the stock has just skyrocketed. I think it's overvalued. I think it's a good firm that's well run. I think it has a role to play, and they'll find new ways. But it's just... It's like AOL. It's gonna dramatically shed a ton of value, I think, over the next few years because it's been the on ramp into crypto, and people no longer need a safe, you've got mail, kind of friendly place to buy crypto.”
Jan 12, 2024 · Markets · Judgment call · by Jan 12, 2027 (inferred)
“unfortunately for Hollywood and LA based media, it's gonna fail slowly for the next twenty years. And that is there will be Barbie and Oppenheimer summers that have a glimmer of hope, but over time, the the regression line is gonna be is gonna be down into the right.”
Dec 19, 2023 · Media · Judgment call · by Dec 19, 2043
“I think at some point in the future, we're gonna find out that the CCP was using TikTok to manipulate and divide America with a disproportionate amount of anti Israel content that they're elevating.”
Oct 27, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Oct 27, 2033
“So we'll see, but I think in I think in several years, we're all gonna say, oh, that was obvious they were doing it and find out they were. Mhmm. I think it's hap... I think it's happening right now.”
Oct 27, 2023 · Politics · Judgment call · by Oct 27, 2028 (inferred)
“but over the next five years, the greatest shifts in market capitalization are going to happen because of the Ozempic economy or whatever you want to call it, the obesity economy that's about to be disrupted.”
Oct 6, 2023 · Markets · Judgment call · by Oct 6, 2028
“I think we're gonna wish we'd been more forgiving of ourselves and acknowledge the best trade in 2023 will be the capital, the weapons, the intelligence we are supplying to Ukraine.”
Jan 13, 2023 · Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Jan 1, 2073 (inferred)
“I think there's a chance she'll get the Peace Prize.”
Oct 29, 2021 · Other · Judgment call · by Oct 29, 2026 (inferred)
“Well, we know it's coming. We just don't know if it's a year or ten years.”
Oct 8, 2021 · M&A · Judgment call · by Oct 8, 2031
“Most people think it's gonna be the Apple Watch, I think it's gonna be Alexa.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
“we're gonna find that the reason Amazon is becoming HIPAA compliant is they're about to start offering medical services and medical insurance at a lower price.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Tech · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
“Think Jeff Bezos is gonna be the first trillionaire on the back of Amazon's move into healthcare.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
Only if: Amazon starts announcing basic health insurance and basic medical services
“Amazon will be the first $2,000,000,000,000 company once they start announcing basic health insurance and kind of basic medical services.”
Jan 3, 2020 · Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2029 (inferred)
“We're going to see the resale market secondhand clothing be bigger than fast fashion in 2028.”
Aug 30, 2019 · Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2028
Only if: A woman runs for U.S. president in the 2020 election and loses
“If a woman runs and loses Mhmm. You're not gonna have a female president for twenty years.”
Apr 12, 2019 · Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Apr 12, 2039
“I think he could be president even if he loses this election.”
Nov 2, 2018 · Politics · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2028 (inferred)