Jan 17, 2020 · Episode 73 · Predictions episode

Gloves off over privacy, from Apple to Microsoft to Grindr. PLUS Scott's big 2020 bets.

9 predictions · 3–5 · 38% accuracy

Scott's predictions9

Read the transcript →

Analysts and academics will determine, upon further examination, that the US-China trade deal signed around January 2020 leaves the US no better off economically than before the deal.
“I think this will be seen as the equivalent of an individual running towards the end zone and getting so excited that they spike the ball on the three yard line, it becomes a fumble. I think we're going to find as analysts and academics dig into this actual trade deal, that we are no better off than we were before.”
Politics · Judgment call · by Jan 17, 2021 (inferred)
Came trueResolved Jan 2021
In 2020, Twitter will either attract an activist investor or be acquired.
“Twitter invites an activist or is acquired,”
M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
Came trueResolved Feb 29, 2020
FedEx will be acquired in 2020.
“But I still think that company FedEx likely gets acquired.”
M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
Didn’t happenResolved Dec 2020
Hulu will cease to exist as a standalone service in 2020.
“Hulu is gonna go away.”
Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
Didn’t happenResolved Dec 2020
Cybersecurity stocks will rise sharply in 2020 as cyberattacks, enabled by cover from Iran tensions, become more brazen.
“We're gonna see a basket of security stocks skyrocket as cyber attacks become more brazen based on the cloud cover of Iran.”
Markets · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
Came trueResolved Dec 31, 2020
Apple's stock will rise 20-30% within six months of January 17, 2020, driven by an announced recurring-revenue subscription bundle.
“You're going to see oh, Apple goes up 20 to 30% in the next six months on the back of their announcement around a recurring revenue bundle, which they are lining up all the assets to do.”
Markets · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2020
Didn’t happenResolved Jul 17, 2020
In 2020, Roku will either acquire a content company or be acquired by a content company, with Disney as the likely acquirer.
“Roku is a key component in going vertical. So they will either acquire a content company or be acquired by a content company. The likely candidate is Disney.”
M&A · Either/or · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2020 (inferred)
Didn’t happenResolved Dec 2020
Spotify will decide to sell itself (be acquired) in the near term due to competitive pressure from Apple and Amazon.
“Spotify is declining at the hands of a monopoly. Monopoly is Apple and Amazon, so they'll soon decide to sell.”
M&A · Checkable · by Jul 17, 2020 (inferred)
Didn’t happenResolved Jul 2020
It will be revealed that an Iranian agent currently embedded at the highest levels of the US government is the most successful spy in modern Western history, having engineered both the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani to benefit Iran.
“I think we're gonna find that there was a high level, the most successful spy of the last thirty years is an Iranian agent who convinced the Bush administration to take out Iraq such that Iran could be the most powerful force in the region. And then twenty years later convinced the government to kill Soleimani in Baghdad such that they could get the US military out of Iraq. I think the most successful spy in the history of the Western world is an Iranian agent who is currently at the highest levels of the US government.”
Politics · Unfalsifiable · by Jan 17, 2021 (inferred)
Can’t be gradedToo vague