Pivot · Aug 11, 2023

Twitter’s Trump Warrant, and An Abortion Rights Win in Ohio with Co-Host Will Hurd

Automatic transcript of the end of the episode, from 42:09. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

Scott Galloway · 42:09 All heard the phone call of Donald Trump asking a state employee to commit a crime that he knew was a crime. Right? Like like like Kara Swisher · 42:19 Find the votes. Yeah. Scott Galloway · 42:20 Right. Right. Right. Like, that's that's, like, that's pretty clear to me. Right? So so here is where polling is a snapshot in time. It's a very narrow insight. And so so would most Republicans be like, Joe Biden and everybody associated with him hate Donald Trump? Yeah, of course. Right? Would they be like, there's some political activism here? I can see why they say that. But is that gonna translate twenty five weeks from now into them voting for Donald Trump? Ultimately, what I think, and and and when you when you juxtapose national polling with some of the state polling, Donald Trump is probably gonna get 30% of the Republican primary voters. No matter what. Their ride or dies, they're going with him... Kara Swisher · 43:12 They got the hats. They got the t shirts. Scott Galloway · 43:13 No matter what no matter what happens. Guest · 43:15 Right? They're like, But you're that a Kara Swisher · 43:16 swift fans, but really rancid. But go ahead. Scott Galloway · 43:19 I don't know if she'd appreciate being compared. You know? Kara Swisher · 43:22 Oh, she would beat him in election. Scott Galloway · 43:25 Yeah. She'd beat him. Barbie and and and T Swift are keeping the economy going. Know? That's right. Billion dollars? Like, that's crazy. Kara Swisher · 43:32 That's the feminists. The feminists are keeping it. Girl power's keeping everyone going. Scott Galloway · 43:37 So for for for me, this is what I always ask people. Let's let's do this thought experiment. Who's the independent or conservative Democrat that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and then in 2024, be like, know what? Donald J Trump's my guy. That doesn't exist. It doesn't exist. Right? So all the polling that shows that Trump is Kara Swisher · 44:05 So they'll go, he's old, but I guess I can't Yeah. Scott Galloway · 44:07 Yeah. I'm gonna I'm gonna hold my nose for all that group of people. Right? And and so so so this is what I keep telling Republicans. If the GOP nominates Donald Trump as our as our nominee, we are willingly giving four more years to Joe Joe Biden. Right? And because there is no way... Oh, and by the way, right, like, the... And and I don't mean this in a in a in a derogatory way. He literally campaigned from his basement. Right? And he still beats you. Right? Like like like, come on. And and so so anyway You Kara Swisher · 44:40 notice he's not saying much. He's biking around and sitting on the beach, and every time he says nothing, his polls go up. Biden said nothing. Scott Galloway · 44:48 It it makes no sense. And and ultimately, I also think the the path... So all of these court cases, no one is above the law. Right? And and and and for those that want to criticize and bring up Hunter Biden and all that. So the person who's gonna prosecute that case is someone who's been indicted like 90 times? Like, that that that makes no sense if that's something you care about. And and and what I... The the the pathway is, there's a lot of Republicans that once we start getting into the winter, that people start paying attention to the election. Kara Swisher · 45:22 They'll be like, oh, dear. Scott Galloway · 45:23 Are gonna be like, yeah, voted for Donald Trump twice, but he's got too much baggage and we need to look somewhere else. And then also the fact that Ron DeSantis has basically stumbled and is is is faltering. The... There is... If you're not Donald Trump, if your name is not Trump, I think your chances are pretty much equal in in this in this in this Republican primary. Kara Swisher · 45:48 Of the group. That's what you're hoping for. Yeah. That's what you're hoping. Can I ask you very briefly, because we've gotta get going, but why do you think DeSantis has stumbled so much? I think, as you know, I think he's charmless. You know? You remember when Obama said Hillary Clinton was likable enough? Remember that? Scott Galloway · 46:03 Right. Kara Swisher · 46:03 Right. Which is... Worked. It worked no matter how you slice it. I think he's unlikable enough. That's... Like, I've always thought he's charmless and strange. Scott Galloway · 46:12 That's that's a good that's a good title. That's a good title Kara Swisher · 46:14 Yeah. For his Yeah. The wife. I would possibly take a... Wife is charming, but not him. Scott Galloway · 46:21 Look. So when you're more interested in fighting our... My friends in the LGBTQ community than you are Vladimir Putin, we got a problem. When you think Cinderella is a bigger national security threat than anything else, than a president storing documents in his in his bathroom, then we have a problem. And and so, you know, there's no upside to slavery. Right? You know, if you want to come in and defend it and be like, I didn't write it. It's not my fault. It's not my fault. I didn't write it. Right? That's not leadership. Then change the phrase. Be like, listen, that's not our... That was not our intention. I'm gonna call everybody What What a a mistake. I'm gonna call everybody back. Kara Swisher · 47:02 Yeah. He doubled down. Scott Galloway · 47:04 Fix that fix that wording. Right? It's it's that it's it's that it's that simple. Then you hire a guy like a known neo Nazi or let me not be hyperbolic. Think he was, like, an anti Semite. Right? Like, and that that he knew that. He, like, he knew that in advance. Like, and then you hire you hire that, and then all the anti LGBTQ stuff, right, that's called a pattern. And and I think those are all the reasons that he's that he's failing. Oh, and Republicans don't like authority trying to concentrate power in the hands of the few, and telling businesses what they... How they can and cannot think. Kara Swisher · 47:44 Yeah. So that's it. And so everybody's got a chance if if Trump stumbles at some point, point or people... Or the penny suddenly drops with everybody. Scott Galloway · 47:51 Yeah. Or or or or it's it's taken. Right? Like, and and and that's that's our thesis. Right? Kara Swisher · 47:56 I do think you're right. I think everyone has a chance. I think it'll be interesting to see who pulls forward, but I think you can't... I think Trump is gonna stumble. I think he's gonna stumble. Ultimately, he doesn't wanna spend his life... The rest of his life in prison, so we'll see. He's got... To me, he's got a... This is my calculation. He's gotta win, which he's not gonna do unless something incredible happen. So he's gotta win. He's gotta hope a Republican who'll give him a pardon wins, which is not a certainty. There's pretty much... It's just Vivek and that guy, whatever he is, and and, and DeSantis. Nobody else... Everyone else is like, pardon? Probably not. Or or he's going to jail or he's going to jail. And it may be at Mar Lago with a with a bracelet on his leg, but he's not going anywhere. It's not a great... It's not... He doesn't... He's not gonna enjoy. He could could make a fake presidential office at Mar A Lago and pretend he's president the rest of his life. That's that's the best choice for him. Anyway, Will, we've got one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Do you have a good prediction? We'll see. [Ad break] Guest · 49:28 This podcast is supported by Anthropic, the public benefit corporation behind Claude. Everyone's got a hard question about AI. Anthropic was built to surface those questions and share what it finds along the way because there's hope in hard questions. Ask yours at claud dot a I slash spotify, and keep thinking. That's claud dot a I slash spotify. — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 49:57 Okay, Will. Let's hear a prediction. It could be on anything. You don't have... It doesn't have to be political, but it certainly can. Scott Galloway · 50:03 Can I can I give three real quick? Kara Swisher · 50:06 Yes. Sure. Go right ahead. Scott Galloway · 50:10 Pivot listeners put Will Hurd over the top of his 40,000 because they all went to heardforamerica.com and gave at least $1. That's prediction number one. Number two, the twenty twenty four NBA champions are my San Antonio Spurs Oh. Because of because of Wimby. And number three Kara Swisher · 50:30 Wait. Why is this sports with you people? Luntz was talking about the Orioles, but go ahead. Move along. Move along. Scott Galloway · 50:35 The... That cat, that that... The Harvard professor that that took all that metal out of the ocean because he thought it was, like, gonna prove extraterrestrial life, I don't think it's... I I think the final analysis is not gonna be clear that that was some Kara Swisher · 50:52 You don't kind believe in UFOs? Scott Galloway · 50:53 I I didn't say that. I I just think those pebbles that he got out of the ocean are not going to are not going to be the definitive case. There's something Kara Swisher · 51:05 it's time for the aliens to show up now? Just about now. Like, okay. That's enough human... Humanity. We've been watching you, and we're tired. It's like, Scott Galloway · 51:16 you know. Well, my brother my brother, my big brother is a big Star Trek fan. And and I forget which Star Trek it was. And they're talking about the history of the world. And it was like, there was world peace on earth when when aliens showed up. Right? That's right. Because it Kara Swisher · 51:32 was That's right. Scott Galloway · 51:33 We were all banned together. Kara Swisher · 51:34 First it's First Contact. There was a whole movie about it. Scott Galloway · 51:37 Oh, great movie. Kara Swisher · 51:38 Great movie. Yeah. First Contact. Scott Galloway · 51:39 Arrival Arrival's another good one. Kara Swisher · 51:41 We need a first contact. Either it's gotta be a simulation that we realize, and it's over, and some teenagers are getting sick of us, or aliens need to get here immediately. What would you say? If you're president, what would you say to the aliens if they showed up? What would you hear first message as president president Will Hurd? Scott Galloway · 51:57 I'd be like, let's work together. Let's find... I'm I'm gonna say what I always say. We can find way more to unite us than divide us. Kara Swisher · 52:06 Let's hope wanna eat us? What if they want Scott Galloway · 52:08 to do wanna eat us, be like, you know, let's hope Kara Swisher · 52:11 these To serve man. It's a cookbook. Yeah. Scott Galloway · 52:13 I don't know if y'all have nuclear weapons where you come from, but we can shoot ours into space. Kara Swisher · 52:18 Yeah. That was the plot of, like, I think Independence Day. Think that's what happened. Anyway Scott Galloway · 52:22 What what... What's your prediction? Kara Swisher · 52:23 Yeah. I think the writers in Hollywood Strike's gonna possibly go on till January 15, at least. I don't... I thought several people were thinking October 14 maybe, but certainly not. Now that it's August, they're all on vacate... They all go on vacation. Scott Galloway · 52:37 What's the specific date? Why... How how are Kara Swisher · 52:40 Because you able to they have to really... They they... It really ruins next summer for them if they don't get working by January 5. I think everyone will feel the pressure by then. I think writers and actors will be out of work, and they can only do so many cameos, the actors, and... Which is what a lot of them are doing right now to make money. They can do ads and cameos, pretty much, or not very... I don't even think they can do ads. So I think that's gonna be... The financial pressure on writers, and it's a hundred days today, I think. It's a real... And I think yelling at Bob Iger saying he makes too much money is just not gonna work after a while. Ultimately, it doesn't work. So I think that's... They'll have to... They'll they'll come to an agreement. And I think the studios... That's when the studios really have pressure because they're doing well because they're saving money right now. It's good for their bottom line. I think there's plenty of content, but by some... If they really go to January, they'll have problems with summer, kind of thing. So we'll see. That's when Scott Galloway · 53:38 What's they'll your sports? What's your sports prediction? Kara Swisher · 53:40 I don't have any. I don't watch sports, Will Hart. I'm the only lesbian in America who hates sports, which is the way it is. I'm sorry. I hate him. I have sporty sons. They both are very athletic. I don't... I have to go to all these events. Right. And I hate every one of them. And if I look at my phone, my sons clock it and say, put down your phone, and so it's it's hell. And now my third son, who is only 1.5, seems to like sports, which is a real problem. So You know? Anyway Anyway You you Scott Galloway · 54:08 do you. Kara Swisher · 54:09 You do me. You do you. I I really don't like sports. I don't even like Megan Rapino kicking. I like Megan Rapinoe, by the way, as opposed to... And by the way, Megan Rapinoe, good for you with an amazing career, even if you didn't make that last kick, astonishing athlete. I still didn't watch it. It doesn't matter. Anyway, and she's a lesbian, but I... You think I would, but I don't. In any case, there we have it. Will, thank you so much. I love people being on the debate stage. You're, you know, highly intelligent person who should be talking about issues like AI and and reasonability, I guess, being reasonable. And you're sort of the nicer Chris Christie, essentially. So he's... I think he's effective. I think it's effective. He keeps going. He's he's good at... He's a former prosecutor, so he should be. I do think people need to be able to debate on the stage, especially the Republican Party, and bring people to their senses because, I do like divided government myself, and I like lots of points of view. So I really do hope you give him a dollar. I am gonna go do that right now. — Predictions segment ends — Scott Galloway · 55:07 You said $5. You said you're giving 5. They give $1. You give $5. Kara Swisher · 55:12 Gave Christy $5. Scott Galloway · 55:14 I'll give Kara Swisher · 55:14 you $5. Do not make me give Vivek Rameswamy anything. I'd like to... There's things I'd like to give him we're not supposed to say. Anyway, I will read us out, and thank you so much, and good luck with your campaign. Today's show is produced by Lara Naaman and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Enderdot engineered this episode. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business with some new fresh people, including Don Lemon is coming on next week, so that should be interesting. Thank you so much, Will. Thanks for coming. Scott Galloway · 55:50 Thanks Thanks for having me on. [Ad break] Guest · 56:39 With the score tied Afternoon glare totally ruined my watch party for the big game. That's when my buddy recommended blinds.com. [Ad break] Kara Swisher · 57:04 Visit blinds.com now to save up to 50% off-site wide during our annual Scott Galloway · 57:08 fall Kara Swisher · 57:08 blowout sale.

Came true

Resolved Aug 11, 2024 · 12 months after it aired

Pivot #428 · Aired Aug 11, 2023

The final scientific analysis of the metallic spherules retrieved from the ocean floor by Harvard professor Avi Loeb will not provide definitive proof of extraterrestrial origin or alien life.

Critique of arXiv submission 2308.15623 (Loeb et al.)arxiv.org

3 more sources

How we graded it

Counts as true if: Peer-reviewed or widely reported scientific findings either confirm or fail to confirm that the recovered material is of extraterrestrial/artificial alien origin; if findings remain inconclusive or debunk the extraterrestrial claim, the prediction is true.

By the resolution window (through mid-2024, with further confirmation in 2024-2025), no peer-reviewed or widely accepted scientific finding confirmed the spherules' extraterrestrial or alien origin. Independent critiques (arXiv 2311.07699, The Conversation, Open University review) found the evidence unconvincing, and later analysis traced the 'exotic' spherules to terrestrial/volcanic sources, while the original meteor location was found to be based on a seismic signal from a truck rather than the actual bolide. This matches Galloway's prediction that the final analysis would not clearly establish an extraterrestrial finding.

Researched and graded by AI on Oct 12, 2026

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