13 predictions · 7–6 · 54% accuracy
“So the capital flows, the human capital flows in the podcasting are gonna be enormous because quite frankly, the the reality is other than maybe a dozen stars in in TV, Kara and Scott are making more money. And that's why you're gonna see just so much talent come into this space because Comcast takes a 97% tax on the revenue you produce”
Media · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: If inflation appears to be spiking again due to the tariffs
“These tariffs go away or have serious serious pushback the first month that inflation looks to be spiking again.”
Markets · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“We're gonna be responsible for probably two thirds plus of the gross domestic product growth next year.”
Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
Only if: If IBM benefits from an AI-driven boost ('AI zhuzh or pixie dust') to its business or valuation
“IBM's got a p of 33. If you got any sort of that AI zhuzh or pixie dust, this stock could double or triple.”
Markets · Conditional · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“So briefly, 2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be OpenVideo. OpenAI and NVIDIA right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI, 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those. Answers to those queries are those two firms. And so it'll be kind of the new wind tell, and people start referring it to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world.”
Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think you're gonna see a raft of new unicorns in health care where you upload your medical records, your diet, and it starts playing offense and come back... Comes back to you with exact...”
Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“podcast revenue in 2025 is gonna grow faster, granted off a small base, than Meta or Alphabet or Amazon. It's gonna be up 20 plus percent.”
Media · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“So IPO of the year, I think it's gonna be... And it's gonna be an interesting one because it's probably gonna have a London exchange. Shein, these asset light models...”
M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“And next year, it's gonna pass Walmart to be the biggest apparel retailer in the world, and it's going public on the London exchange.”
Markets · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“I think the technology of the year is nuclear. You just saw Facebook basically put out an RFP saying build us a nuclear power plant. The friction in AI is energy. It requires 10 times the energy, and people have realized that it's one of the safest, most productive, most reliable sources of energy. It's just been terribly branded the last twenty or thirty years, but some of the biggest brains have turned their massive capital fire hoses on nuclear. 2025 is gonna be the year nuclear. That'll be the technology of the year.”
Tech · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025
“Movement of the year movement of the year is gonna be banning phones in schools globally. It's just starting everywhere. Australia's banning social media. We're gonna see phones banned in schools all over the world.”
Politics · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“And on a much more boring level, I think the biggest LBOs of... In history are gonna happen in 2025. There's so much capital on the sidelines.”
M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025
“And my favorite two targets are Target and Intel.”
M&A · Checkable · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
