3 predictions · 1–2 · 33% accuracy
“My prediction is it's gonna go down to less than 30 because I think the pick... I think Biden's gonna step down, and the prospect of Trump being reelected is gonna go down. And as a result, Donald Trump media, which has become a proxy for the likelihood he gets elected, is going to dip below 30.”
Markets · Checkable · by Jul 26, 2024 (inferred)
Only if: Trump wins the White House (the 2024 presidential election)
“But also, if Trump wins the White House, it's likely or might because there's a nonzero probability that he will find something that traditionally would have been illegal, that he might demand that the Pentagon or that every government employee have a... An account on true true social. I mean, I just wouldn't put it past the guy.”
Politics · Conditional · Judgment call · by Jul 19, 2025 (inferred)
“No. No. No. I I I think in... What I'm saying is in this... In the next week, I think Joe Biden steps down.”
Politics · Checkable · by Jul 26, 2024
