Pivot · Jul 12, 2024

Biden on the Defensive, Trump's Threats, and Congressional Stock Trading

Automatic transcript of the end of the episode, from 59:43. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

Kara Swisher · 59:43 Thing follows like a river to the next thing. And so I just... I wouldn't think too hard or worry too much. Just figure out where you wanna... The place you wanna live. Right? You wanna be in a warm climate. The issue Alex had with Michigan was the cold. Weather was one of his things, but then he decided he really, really liked Michigan a lot. So I think you just decide where you wanna live or what what has a really good program for the things you're in. And, also, you don't know your major's gonna be your major. Like, you may shift. Like, I thought I was going to the CIA. I thought I was going into law or the military, and I did an opposite thing. So be open to that, and then don't, like, worry about it too much. Honestly, poor college seniors people. I have a friend who I just ran into as a incoming senior, rising senior, and I did not purposely ask them about college because they get asked that a lot. So just be nice to people that ask you about it, but I get that it's really too much. But it's not... This is just a one way station along... In a very long life. Right? Don't worry. Just enjoy yourself. Senior year should be fun, I would think. Scott Galloway · 1:00:43 Yeah. Just picking up on what you you said. It's very hard. I wish I'd learned this when I was much younger, but nothing's ever as good or as bad as it seems. And try not to fall in love with any one school. Apply to a bunch. I only had one option because I needed to live at home because I didn't have any money, so I applied to UCLA and I didn't get in. And I was just devastated. And my mom said, is there anything we can do? And I'm like, of course, there's nothing we can do. I've been rejected. And she found out there was an appeal process, and I appealed and I got in, and that's the reason I'm here with you. But apply to a bunch of schools and then be a consumer. Keep in mind, once you get into hopefully more than one school, they need you more than you need them and start playing them off against each other for financial aid. Because keep in mind, despite our cardigans and nobility in this veneer that we're public servants, we are fucking whores that will attempt to soak you and your family for all your disposable income. So do this. Get into two or three schools and then call all of them and say, what financial aid can you offer me? And play them off against each other. That's my advice around college too. In terms of a core skill that you wanna develop while you have some extra time, the one skill that will endure, It's not computer science. It's not civics. It's not math. It's not... It's the following. It's storytelling. Kara Swisher · 1:01:59 Mhmm. Scott Galloway · 1:02:00 So if you have the opportunity to journal, to write for your school newspaper, to give presentations, to learn PowerPoint, whatever it is, try and take some time to really, if you can, develop your communication skills because that storytelling is the core competence that will endure the test of time. And then on a personal note, the thing I wish I had done. You know, there's all these things on TikTok saying that 90% of the time you will spend with your kids is from zero to 18. And, you know, so when your kid's 17 or 18, and I think about this a lot, I'm like, 80% of the time I have with my 16 year old is gone. It's probably more like 90% because it's already spent. And I wasn't ready for it, and it's been very upsetting for me. What I would say to someone who's a senior in high school is flip that, and that is the majority of your time with your parents is coming to an end. And something I wish I had done... I don't I don't know how you were. I wish I'd been kinder to my mother that last year because there's a very natural instinct when you're a teenage girl or teenage boy to... I don't wanna say be unkind, but you're starting to rebel a little bit, and you're starting to find everything that your parents do as being really uncool. Yeah. And when I look back, especially, you know, single mom struggling, I wish I'd just been a little kinder. Kara Swisher · 1:03:18 Oh, that's sweet, Scott. I I have to say my kids were kind because COVID happened, and so I spent a lot of time with them by need. That was the greatest... The only gift of COVID was that we spent so much time together, and then they formed a lot of bonds with my littler kids. And so that was a gift, and I agree. You should you should totally spend time with your... Parents are probably cool since you're so cool. Yeah. [Ad break] Kara Swisher · 1:03:39 thing I would say is you don't have to go to college. There's other choices. Scott Galloway · 1:03:43 Right? This young woman is going to college, Carol. I know Kara Swisher · 1:03:46 she is, but I'm just saying. Just... There's... You don't have to go that year. Like, Louie took a year off for the COVID thing. You know, you could do a lot of things. Like, it's not... Don't rush into adulthood. Don't be a juvenile and spend all your parents' money, but, you know, get a job. Do... You know, you could do other things necessarily, but, you know, you really do have one life. This is just one of the things on it, and that's what you should think about. Otherwise, we're glad we challenge you and a big big influence on you. Again, I apologize for Scott's penis jokes, but you're gonna get those in life, and so you need to start understanding that. Scott Galloway · 1:04:18 Something tells me she's she's heard worse. But Probably. Yeah. Apply to a bunch of schools. Kara Swisher · 1:04:22 Yep. Scott Galloway · 1:04:23 Get on the debate team, and hang out and be nice to your parents while you're still at home. Kara Swisher · 1:04:27 Thank you, Sage. That is lovely. It makes us feel better. You're actually helping us more than we're helping you. Anyway, if you've got a question of your own you'd like answered and it has to be as good as Sage's, send it our way. Go to nymag.com/pivot. Submit a question for the show or call 85551 Alright, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back for your prediction. I get so many headaches every month. [Ad break] — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 1:06:45 Okay, Scott. Let's hear a prediction. Scott Galloway · 1:06:49 I I wanted to get back to my knitting and make a prediction about business. So I think an activist investor is gonna pop up at one of the most storied strongest brands in the world, and that brand is Nike. So, essentially, Nike had one of its biggest one day stock drops. The five year return for Nike stock is negative 13%. The S and P's doubled. Mhmm. It's lost half its market value in just the past three years. Net profit margins have declined nearly 2% over the past year. Kara Swisher · 1:07:23 Because of hocus. Scott Galloway · 1:07:24 Yeah. I mean, this company, it has just been hit incredibly hard. It's down more than 30 year to date. It expects a 10% decline in revenue this quarter, single digit decline. I mean, Nike's down 30%. I think Adidas is up 20%. After reporting earnings last quarter, Nike plummeted nearly 20%, its worst trading day since going public since 1980. It has now become the worst performer in the Dow Jones index. And when you look at the power of this brand, I mean, it's it's it's lost share, little bit of growth to new brands, upstart brands like On. Kara Swisher · 1:07:59 Did you see the Zendaya ad with that player? What's what's the name? Scott Galloway · 1:08:04 My favorite is Roger Federer made Kara Swisher · 1:08:05 more money with On. Federer. That's who it is. Oh, yeah. In the ON ad. It's fantastic. Scott Galloway · 1:08:10 Federer has made more money through ON than he's made in his entire career as a tennis player. Yeah. But, anyways, if you look at it, ON running enterprise value to EBITDA, ON trades at 48 times. Deckers, the owners of HOKA, is at 22. Adidas is at 29. Nike is at 17. And Nike's average over the last five years is 27. So in addition to the underperformance, the stock has been beaten up enough that I think it's now a very juicy target for an activist. Kara Swisher · 1:08:38 Oh, interesting. Scott Galloway · 1:08:39 So my prediction isn't that Nike will continue to underperform or overperform. My prediction is that one of the greatest global brands over the last thirty years, Its EBITDA or its valuation is now at a point where it's becoming a dinner bell for an activist. So my prediction is in the next ninety days, somebody is gonna file a 13 d and say, hi. We're here, and we're concerned at Nike. Kara Swisher · 1:09:03 Yeah. That's... You know, the CEO is John Donahoe, who is a tech CEO. He was at a bunch of different tech company. I I know him pretty well. I do have to say, I know some Nike people, and they have been complaining about him for a while that he doesn't... He's not... He's got the support of Phil Knight, and that's who's the founder. And that's what he's got, but I've heard a lot of disgruntlement within Nike about him. I just literally recently heard from, like, six or seven people there. And I like John, but he's definitely having a troubling time. It's a really interesting problem. It'd be unprecedented if something like that lost market share. Correct? Scott Galloway · 1:09:40 They're facing some of the same problems like in Estee Lauder. Right? I think China's 10 or 15% of the business. China's down. But Nike, which is an incredible brand, the space has actually done pretty well as a whole. So investors, I would bet that John, he has twelve months to figure this out. Otherwise, he will be he will be removed from his position. But this is a classic act... Classic activist. One, some of the biggest players in the world like a, you know, an Elliot or Nelson Peltz, the thing they're gonna love about this is because it has a $111,000,000,000 market cap, they can put a billion dollars to work here and no one even notices. And what they'll do is they'll come in and they'll say, hi, we're here. We love the brand. There's tremendous value to be unlocked here, and we're quote unquote concerned. And they'll basically meet with John and say, What are your plans, John? And based on that meeting, they'll either go, Okay, he's hit a rough patch, but he's the right guy. And they'll say, Okay, we're giving you twelve months to figure it out. Or they're gonna go, Our worst fears have been realized here. I mean, they meet with Salesforce and they meet Marc Benioff and they go, Okay, this guy's smart. He shoved too many calories down the esophagus of this company. They need to trim some fat. We'll give him some cloud cover to make some hard decisions. And boom, I think the stock's up 50 or 80% since whatever, since Elliott went in there. They leave. Thanks very much. Or they're going to go in and say, this is the wrong guy and go hostile right away. But this brand, there are so few iconic brands of this stature, this heritage, this legacy that have seen their value cut in half. It's just too tempting for an activist not to come in here. — Predictions segment ends — Kara Swisher · 1:11:19 Oh, great great prediction. It's really interesting. I have a little prediction. You and I are gonna be in the theater on November 22 when gladiator two comes out. Have you seen the the trailer? Scott Galloway · 1:11:29 I was not expecting you to say that. Kara Swisher · 1:11:31 I understand that. It's Paramount Pictures. Yay, Paramount. It's gonna be a big... It looks so good. It's Pedro Pascal. This guy, Paul Mezcal, who's playing... Is in it, and Denzel Washington. It looks so fucking good. It's like, I'm so excited. I'm gonna take you to the opening if I get invited. I will get invited to the opening because I happen to know David Allison, so I'm gonna demand it. Scott Galloway · 1:11:51 Even after all the shitposting we've done in Paramount, do you know the Allison kid? Kara Swisher · 1:11:55 They're gonna invite... I'm I'm gonna be talking to David Allison, I suspect, hopefully soon. Scott Galloway · 1:11:59 Great. Kara Swisher · 1:11:59 We're going... David Allison, we would like tickets to the opening. We wanna go to the the big premiere. We'll dress up in gladiator outfit. We will go... We'll bring Sage with us. Scott Galloway · 1:12:09 I've been calling everybody I know trying to get finals to the championship in Berlin. The other movie I'm excited about is Beetlejuice. Kara Swisher · 1:12:17 Oh, yeah. Scott Galloway · 1:12:18 Yeah. Yeah. That's coming out. Kara Swisher · 1:12:19 Justin Theroux's in it. Scott Galloway · 1:12:20 Yeah. I love Justin Theroux, and I think he's super talented. Kara Swisher · 1:12:22 Yeah. Epic sequel. Scott Galloway · 1:12:24 Yeah. So I'm excited about that. Kara Swisher · 1:12:26 Anyways It looks fantastic. Yeah. Anyway, I know sequels are kinda tired, but I don't care. Gladiator is my favorite movie of all time, and the other two looks fan fucking fantastic. Pedro Pascal, that's all you gotta tell me in in, like, Sword and Sandals. Scott Galloway · 1:12:38 He's great. Kara Swisher · 1:12:39 Anyway Sword and Sandals. I love his sword and sandals. I love... I watch the robe. I watch all the sword and sandals. I watch Ben Hur. I love them all. I love them, every single one of them. Anyway, I am Spodocus. Okay, Scott. That's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more pivot. Would you please read us out? Scott Galloway · 1:12:58 Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Travis Larchuk. Arnej Dhrtadt engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Miesaverio. Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. If you're a senior in high school, your time with your parents is not coming to an end, but it's gonna substantially decrease. Leave on a high note. Be nice. Be calm. Hey, mom. Hey, dad. Let's grab dinner. [Ad break]