Jan 27, 2023 · Episode 374

Trump is Back on Meta, The DOJ Sues Google, and No More Murdoch Merger

4 predictions · 3–1 · 75% accuracy

Scott's predictions4

Read the transcript →

Bing will gain significant search market share in the 90 days following the launch of its ChatGPT-driven product.
“the the market share that Bing is gonna get in the ninety days after it launches like a ChatGPT inspired or driven product.”
Tech · Checkable · by May 27, 2023 (inferred)
Didn’t happenResolved May 11, 2023
Bing will experience a large surge in user trial/adoption following its ChatGPT integration.
“I think Bing is about to get so much trial.”
Tech · Checkable · by Jul 27, 2023 (inferred)
Came trueResolved Mar 9, 2023
The perception that Microsoft could become a dominant force in search again will drive Microsoft's market capitalization up by at least 10% (from roughly $1.5 trillion), effectively yielding about a 15x return relative to its $10 billion OpenAI investment.
“And the idea and the perception that Microsoft could be a new dominant force again in search is gonna take a $1,500,000,000,000 market cap company. If it just takes it up 10%, they've got a 15 x return on the 10,000,000,000 they put into OpenAI.”
Markets · Checkable · by Jan 27, 2024 (inferred)
Came trueResolved Jan 2024
Within six to twelve months (by around July to October 2023, extending to January 2024), Microsoft's investment in OpenAI will be widely regarded as one of the savviest corporate moves in a long time.
“So in sum, in six or twelve months, we're gonna look back on Microsoft and Satya Nadella. Keep in mind, he put a billion bucks into OpenAI in 2019 when no one was talking about it. We're gonna see this as one of the savviest corporate moves in a long, long time.”
Tech · Judgment call · by Jan 27, 2024
Came trueResolved Nov 2023