Pivot · Jul 9, 2021

Q2 Quarterly Review: The State of the World According to Pivot

Automatic transcript of the end of the episode, from 41:47. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

Scott Galloway · 41:47 And we make purposeful decisions. When we cut unemployment benefits to try and help businesses gain the upper hand to get people back to work because they will literally have to live in their car unless they take that job for $10 an hour, We are prioritizing shareholders over workers. And shareholders have seen the Nasdaq quintuple in the last thirteen years, while workers have seen minimum wage go from $7.25 to $7.25. The best union we have in the world right now, and I'm not a fan of universal basic income, but the most wonderful thing about this CARES Act is it's finally given workers, frontline workers, some leverage that they haven't had in thirty years. Can say, well, you know what? It's not a choice between this shitty job and starving. Kara Swisher · 42:31 Away from this situation, we need a childcare policy, period. I can't... It's so embarrassing that we do not have one. Is just... I just... The other country, we're we're an embarrassment. And that's really... You know, that's the lowest rung in the totem pole. And that's really... It's so it's so it's so ass backwards as as my... One of my relatives would say. It's ass backwards. Anyway, next up Scott Galloway · 42:53 Agree. Kara Swisher · 42:54 Prediction from LightShed Partners Rich Greenfield on the future of streaming, one of the things we talked about a lot. Guest · 43:00 In terms of predictions, I think the one everyone should be focused on is Disney buying out Comcast from their Hulu stake early. It's becoming more and more apparent that Disney needs to have one sort of full offering for direct to consumer, not Disney plus and ESPN plus and Hulu, all as separate entities. I think they're gonna buy Hulu out early. There's already an arbitration battle that's been going on between the two companies. I think it ends soon. Disney buys out Comcast at a pretty significant valuation, but then collapses the services into one unified streaming offering. Kara Swisher · 43:35 Yeah. I like that. I'm I'm agree. Scott Galloway · 43:37 So not that I'm petty. Kara Swisher · 43:38 Comcast should also have bought it, FYI. FYI. Are you gonna say peacock again? Go ahead. Scott Galloway · 43:44 Well, that's the thing here. It might be man bite stock here. It might be Comcast biting out... Buying out Disney because Disney's stock is up, but Comcast has to do something. Comcast needs a bold move here. So I wouldn't... I think Rich might... It might be the other side of Rich's coin here. And not that I'm petty, but Rich slapped me down on Twitter when I said before Quibi launched that it was going to be DOA. And he said Quibi will be a success and that he had seen Quibi content. Kara Swisher · 44:15 But He's throwing Quibi in his face. Scott Galloway · 44:18 Comcast. The interesting player here to watch is Comcast. Hulu... He's right, Hulu will not be an independent property for more than twenty four months. Kara Swisher · 44:26 Yeah. Agreed. Agreed. I agree. I think I think Comcast got to get... There's rumors that Paramount... You know, Sherry Redstone is prepping the thing for sale, and then now she's gotta a seller versus a buyer. Scott Galloway · 44:35 And Mhmm. Kara Swisher · 44:35 I think the stock was up, and now it's down again or whatever. In any case, there was a lot of talk on on several smart newsletters I read about that, about what... Would Comcast move in here? Then it... You can't really own CBS and NBC, so we'd have to diversify here. Anyway, get rid of it. And so they have to make a move. Comcast has to make a move. Absolutely. And maybe maybe it will be buying Discovery Warner when it when it goes through that period of fallowness as that you have been predicting. But I agree, someone's got to make a move here. They've all got to make the big moves because they're not big enough. They need to be bigger. Any other predictions on streaming? I think he's right. I think that's... I think you're right, Scott. Think you've taken his prediction and made a better one. Scott Galloway · 45:14 Yeah. Think Rich has got something going on. Look, the biggest thing in streaming is going to be these guys go vertical with different types of offerings. I think the most interesting thing is going to be Disney plus when it starts incorporating offline offerings. I think they're gonna expand it to special access to parks, cruises, vacations. And I think it's gonna... I think, if you will, OTT OTT and video games are the only media that's streaming, and they're gonna verticalize into other entertainment. If AMC hadn't skyrocketed and became way too expensive, one of those guys would have picked it up and gone vertical into theaters and turned AMC theaters into like Disney experiences. Kara Swisher · 45:53 It's still it's still it's still even though F9 and some others like A Quiet Place two have done really well at the box office, it's still no matter what, those things are gonna get pulled into all of this. Everything's about streaming and being bigger in the experience, whether it's experiential, the theater or offering these movies. It's gonna be all wherever the consumer wants, wherever they want it, and that's where it's going. And whatever Hollywood says, it's not going back to the old days of... Although, Quentin Tarantino apparently bought a movie theater, The Vista in in Los Villas in Los Angeles. But that's just romantic quaintery. So we'll see. Anyway Scott Galloway · 46:26 That's like a rich Republican buying a football Exactly. Kara Swisher · 46:30 Exactly. I'd like it and he only is going have it on film. Scott Galloway · 46:33 The biggest and boldest move in streaming over the next twelve months will have one word, Comcast. They've got a $250,000,000,000 market cap, very smart, very aggressive. And they've got 10 subscribers right now. Supposedly that's inflated when you look at how many people are actually doing it. And there's no way they're going admit defeat. Kara Swisher · 46:51 That Brian Roberts is very smart on the deals. Although Peacock has been made fun of it. He deserves to be made fun of. Anyway, let's go to our friend of Hibbett MSNBC Stephanie Ruhl for a prediction on infrastructure. Guest · 47:04 Hey there, Kara and Scott. It's Stephanie Ruhl here talking infrastructure. To me, infrastructure, it's like getting a dog in a bathtub. You never get all four of those legs in the tub no matter how much that stinky dog needs it. And I'm sad to say, I'm not sure anything is gonna happen. I think from the president's perspective, he absolutely wants a bipartisan deal done. I think it would have taken something that was less than $1,000,000,000,000. Now it's bigger than that. And if he were to sign something, it would be a huge win. Right? But there is absolutely no chance that Republicans are gonna stand with Biden in doing this partial hard infrastructure deal that's then linked to the soft infrastructure deal, why would they do that? That's like the greatest, most giant, enormous win for Democrats. And the other thing they're leaving out with this, we'll just go at it alone. You can't just go at it alone without the senate parliamentarian weighing in on this. Remember in the American Rescue Plan, when Democrats wanted to push raising minimum wage in there, it was the parliamentarian who said, permanent minimum wage has nothing to do with temporary COVID rescue. We're not going to do that. So they don't know what this nonpartisan parliamentarian is going to say. And separately, my last point, this whole argument that it's Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema are the only ones standing in the way, they're not. There are a whole lot of centrist Democrats who represent bluish or swing states, states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, who are also not going to sign on to just the the infrastructure infrastructure package that that Democrats would do going at it on their own. Back to, will they get something done on infrastructure? Unclear. But the current standoff doesn't feel good. And by the way, Republicans would love to see this happen. They would love to say, we agreed on a deal on a bipartisan basis, and Democrats asked for too much. They're the ones who don't want bipartisanship. So, yes, it's this ultimate game of politics right now. I leave it to those in DC to figure this all out. But, of course, they're gonna go home because nobody has a better, schedule than congress does, and we'll see what happens. But right now, I'd say infrastructure deal, it's a dog in a bathtub. See you, Kara and Scott. Kara Swisher · 49:25 Alright, Stephanie. Dog in a bathtub. I'm gonna let that metaphor stand, although it's Scott Galloway · 49:29 What is she, Warren Buffett? What's going on with her? I thought I was the only one that ate edibles around here. Dog in a bathtub? What's going on? Kara Swisher · 49:35 Stephanie, you're wrong. The infrastructure bill will pass. I think it will Scott Galloway · 49:38 pass. It's like a dog Kara Swisher · 49:39 in a bathtub? Pass. This one will pass. I think they're not... Okay. Politics is politics, but this is good politics, and I think it'll pass. I think, you know, it'll be a watered down version. It'll be things you don't like, and I agree. You know, I think it... Think it'll pass. What do you think? I think she's wrong. Dog not... You you can wash the frigging dog eventually. Put him in the shower, Stephanie, just so you know. I'll come over and wash your dog spray if you'd like. Thank you. Scott Galloway · 50:03 We we shower our dogs every One loves it, one hates it. Little information on Thank you. So look, I think it passes. And I think the reason it passes or one of them puts it over the goal line is the disaster in Florida. Agreed. I think it was a very stark and ugly reminder that America isn't a country America can't claim to be the wealthiest country in the world. America can't be a beacon of hope, a beacon of progress and prosperity if our buildings pancake. So I think that this is and Biden was smart to go after this issue first as a temple for his legislative agenda. Because I do think there are a lot Republicans that have bridges that are falling apart in their Kara Swisher · 50:50 districts. And Scott Galloway · 50:51 infrastructure is wonderful. The jobs it creates are usually great middle class jobs. Kara Swisher · 50:56 Good for the economy. Scott Galloway · 50:57 Yeah. It's good for the economy. It makes us feel good about ourselves. It sends the right signal to people. Kara Swisher · 51:01 Good for jobs. Good economy. You see, did you see all those Republican governors signaling to get vaccinations because they're so low in those Republican states? Those heavily Republicans, they're all the very conservative Yeah. Like to get a vaccination. Because you know ninety nine percent of the people dying from COVID right now Speaker · 51:18 don't have vaccinations. Kara Swisher · 51:19 Ninety nine. Scott Galloway · 51:20 Guess who? Guess what they didn't do? Speaker · 51:22 Get a vaccination. Scott Galloway · 51:22 Yeah. Well, they didn't get vaccinated. Kara Swisher · 51:24 They know... People know. Get economy. It'll help the economy for f f f f f f f whatever you say for fuck's sake. Anyway, alright. Last prediction. We we don't agree with you, Stephanie, or your dog and your dog... Your dirty dog. Anyway, Preet on antitrust. Guest · 51:38 It's like a dog in a bathtub. Kara Swisher · 51:40 Let's go. Preet is... Preet. We invited Preet because I know how much you regard Preet. Scott Galloway · 51:45 Oh, of course we did. Let's bring in Preet. Yeah. Kara Swisher · 51:49 Right. All right, Preet. Guest · 51:49 Let it There Scott Galloway · 51:51 we go. Guest · 51:52 Hi, Kara and Scott. Over the next six months to a year in antitrust developments, we might see renewed antitrust action against Facebook and other large tech companies by new and aggressive Federal Trade Commission Chair, Lina Khan. On the legislative side, keep track of a package of six antitrust bills that are being pushed by a bipartisan group of legislators led by Senator Amy Klobuchar. Lastly, President Biden is expected to sign an executive order that will target corporate consolidation in the tech industry. Kara Swisher · 52:22 Alright. Well, you know, not so much of a limb there, Preet. But... Yes. Yes. I think Lena Khan will come back with a hard charging new suit with a lot of proof and stuff like that. Obviously, these bills are going through. We'll see if they'll pass. I don't have as much confidence in that. And we'll see about executive orders. Scott, what do you think of Preet's prediction? Scott Galloway · 52:42 Let me just break it down. I'm going to say absolutely nothing, but I am sexy and articulate, and I could put your ass in prison someday. He just read the newspaper from three months ago. What what was that? Kara Swisher · 52:54 We were so jealous of people. Scott Galloway · 52:56 That's it. Kara Swisher · 52:57 It's sad. Pretty... I thought it was pretty good. Literally. Yeah. It's pretty good. Scott Galloway · 53:01 It's like we said, we want you to say nothing. Guest · 53:03 Don't be Kara Swisher · 53:03 mean to your colleagues. I'm calling HR immediately. Nothing. Immediately. Scott Galloway · 53:07 Anyways The Kara Swisher · 53:08 thing's gonna kick your ass. Scott Galloway · 53:10 You're right. How obvious is my jealousy? Kara Swisher · 53:13 So obvious. Scott Galloway · 53:13 How obvious is my jealousy? — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 53:15 Anyway, now, Scott, it's our turn. What is your big prediction for the next quarter and beyond? Scott Galloway · 53:21 Okay. I have a... I was writing a bunch down. You know, something that keeps it authentic here is I don't really prepare. But anyways, the... Some of my predictions. Okay. I don't know who will be the first $2,000,000,000,000 company, but the first 3,000,000,000,000 would be Amazon. I think in the last half of the year, the thing about the markets that just amazes me is that it has an incredible ability to see around the corner and ask itself over and over what's next. And I think that in the latter half of this year, despite an increase in GDP, despite incredible new business formation, I think you're going see the private markets do well. I think the public markets are going to incur incredible volatility, and we're going to see some of the most step change downs in the market. I think we're going to have some of those volatile days in the market in the next six months as the market begins to go, Okay, 6,000,000,000,000 in debts, a reshaped economy. What happens, what happened at the end of ninety nine. If you look at you look at almost every single financial metric on a bar chart, that's where the x axis is time, it's at historic levels except for 1999 and 2007. I mean, it literally looks as if history is beginning to rhyme and we don't like the next verse. I think the last half of the year, we're going see incredible volatility in the markets. We talked about Comcast, and Disney is going to introduce what I think is the most exciting recurring revenue bundle in the consumer world. Think every family is going to have to own it and it's going to take OTT to offline online, which I think will be super interesting. I like that. That's That's That's... Kara Swisher · 54:59 I like that prediction. I don't really have one except I'm gonna make preets for him. I think Alan Weisselberg is gonna flip. I'm just making that up. I don't know if it's true. Scott Galloway · 55:07 You think he's gonna flip? Speaker · 55:08 Flip on Trump. Kara Swisher · 55:09 I don't think it's going to matter, but I think he's going to flip on Trump. That's what I think. Scott Galloway · 55:15 Yeah. I'd I'm that's fought for a different show, but I look at that and I'm like, I don't know. Kara Swisher · 55:19 I've read a lot of people. They're like, this isn't good. He's going to jail for a little while. And I don't think he wants to go to jail for a little while. I don't think it's worth it. He's an old man. So that's... Scott Galloway · 55:29 Allen, the Weisselberg I Kara Swisher · 55:30 think he's a comfy old man. He's not going to even a nice prison he's not going to. That's what I think. So I'm just making that up. I'm not a lawyer. I just read a lot of lawyers like Preet Bharra. Anyway, okay. That is the show, Scott. Scott Galloway · 55:42 This is Kara Swisher · 55:42 our only show this week, but we have lots to Guest · 55:44 talk about. Scott Galloway · 55:45 Chuck... We're gonna find out in the next six months. Chuck Todd from Miami is not Chuck Todd from Miami. His name is Alistair. He's from Delaware. He's married to a woman who has a master's in library science. He has... And he breeds labradoodles. That whole charade, that shit is over. I know who you are, Chuck Dogg. And, also, my other big production is Anderson Cooper and I get closer and closer. Our friendship continues to blossom. Kara Swisher · 56:06 Produce Anderson Cooper too. None that is true. Scott Galloway · 56:08 None of that is true. — Predictions segment ends — Kara Swisher · 56:10 Anyway, Scott, that's the show. Don't forget if there's a story in the news you're curious about and wanna hear our opinion on, go to nymag.com/pivot and submit a question for the show. Scott, read us out. Scott Galloway · 56:21 Today's show is produced by Camila Salazar. Ernie Entratod engineered episode. Thanks also to Drew Bros. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. Or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you like the show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week for a breakdown of all things tech and business.