Speaker · 43:01
State legislatures.
Speaker · 43:02
That's the most important thing we should be focusing on right now.
Speaker · 43:05
The GOP has a trifecta in 23 states, which means they control the governor's seat plus the state house and the state senate. For Democrats, it's 16 states.
Speaker · 43:16
Meaning that the opportunity to pass the policies that the majority of our state supports, things like increasing minimum wage, legalizing marijuana, codifying abortion.
Speaker · 43:27
If Democrats flip just a handful of state legislatures, the majority of Americans will now live in a state under full democratic control, which could have big policy implications.
Speaker · 43:38
That's all on the table with the democratic trifecta.
Speaker · 43:41
This week on America Actually, we're in Wisconsin, and we talked to Francesca Hong.
Speaker · 43:45
We have an opportunity through Wisconsin to actually start improving the brand for Democrats.
Speaker · 43:52
Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast.
Scott Galloway · 43:58
Cara, I'm in the mood for some health care. I'm in the mood for the American dream. I know. Let's get right back to Canada.
Kara Swisher · 44:04
Let's get back to a pivot live from Elevate in Toronto. I wonder if they have free psychological testing.
Speaker · 44:11
Is that a hint?
Kara Swisher · 44:12
What is the win? What is your win?
Scott Galloway · 44:14
So I always get her name wrong. Phoebe Waller
Kara Swisher · 44:17
Bridge.
Scott Galloway · 44:18
Phoebe Waller Bridge. The
Kara Swisher · 44:20
Fleabag.
Scott Galloway · 44:20
Yeah. The creator and star of what I think is the best series of the last few years. I'm not playing Monday morning quarterback. I've loved this for a while. Top winner at the Emmys, four awards best comedy. And it also indicates kind of an interesting shift and that is Amazon Prime is finally starting to make inroads against Netflix.
Kara Swisher · 44:41
So should they sign a deal with her?
Scott Galloway · 44:43
$20,000,000 a year. Right. To create more stuff. And Jeff Bezos said bring me my Game of Thrones and instead of a dragon you got a dame but it's working for him. Yeah. And Amazon is now in I think about a 100,000,000 homes versus a 150 for Netflix. People with Amazon Prime watch five hours a week versus ten for Netflix. But it just shows how incredibly powerful infinitely cheap capital is when you can go into an adjacent industry and start monetizing it, as you said, across paper towels. But I think it's probably a pretty negative forward looking indicator for Netflix because just a quick micro class here. If you think about all the companies that have gotten past 3 or $400,000,000,000 in market cap, They have several things in common but one of them is they're vertical. They build and manufacture their own products, they distribute it and they control the end distribution. Google controls your Android phone. Apple has their own stores now in addition to their own phone. They're totally vertical. Amazon, obviously totally vertical controls up until can even put stuff in your home now with Ring. Netflix got to about 150,000,000,000, but they're not vertical. And I think, and this goes to a prediction, but I think Netflix is gonna start to erode value as all these other companies find reasons to spend billions on content to distribute across their loyalty programs, their hardware devices. And Netflix is not vertical. They don't control the TV. They don't control the screen. So I think an interesting acquisition would be for Netflix to acquire Sony. Because not only would they get a lot of original content reverse integrating them back into content creation, they would get owned and operated platforms in the form of Sony televisions and Sony Playstations, they could control the distribution, if you will.
Kara Swisher · 46:25
That's never gonna happen.
Scott Galloway · 46:26
Not gonna happen. Why not?
Kara Swisher · 46:27
Reed Hastings, but move along.
Scott Galloway · 46:29
Reed Hastings won't do it.
Kara Swisher · 46:31
Won't do it.
Scott Galloway · 46:31
Well, you're talking about a Broadway show. Give me Netflix acquiring Sony. Mean, there's unrealistic and there's unrealistic. All right,
Kara Swisher · 46:39
you think the win is Phoebe with this idea?
Scott Galloway · 46:42
Oh, I'm sorry, Phoebe, Fleabag, it's wonderful if you haven't seen it, it's an inspiring show, but the winner is Phoebe Waller Bridge.
Kara Swisher · 46:48
All right, my winner this week is whistleblowers. I love a whistleblower, as you might imagine, but I like whistleblowers who do this legally and are protected by our governments. I think it's critical to the functioning of a democracy that whistleblowers have protections. And in two cases, MIT, the media lab, and I actually just did an interview with Whistleblower Aid, which is the group that that helped Ronan Farrow come find this whistleblower at MIT, this woman who was in the development department and was able to unearth... Legally bring forward emails that, of course, implicated a lot of people at MIT in taking money from Jeffrey Epstein and hiding it. I thought that I... That that was a great system to work work in the right way. And then secondly, in this case, this whistleblower is also involved in this, in the Ukrainian whistleblower, the intelligence officer who is trying very hard to remain anonymous. I I I have fourteen seconds where Trump tweets his name. I'm, like, worried about that. But... Or his or her name. I don't know if it's a woman. I think that whistleblowing is is critically important in this age, especially when there's so much digital footprints for these people. The the the Trump administration happens to be completely incompetent in how it's... It just writes everything down. Now we are going to now we are going to, you know, lean on on on the Ukraine or the the Ukrainian president. You know, it's... There was a good joke. It's a nice country you have there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it. It was the... It was the sort of this mobster mentality that they just like... And releasing that... The phone call, just even the small amounts they released is just... It's literally like, yeah, I did the murder. Here, let me show you the body, like kind of stuff. It's really interesting, but it starts with a whistleblower. So I think whistleblowers are the best people ever when they do it in the correct way. I like that.
Scott Galloway · 48:45
Yeah, and My was gonna be founders, I already talked about I'll pick a new one and I'll couch it in something I do think, I'd like to think that the immunities are kicking in across a number of dimensions. A weird way, the immunities kicked in around disclosure, around we and said, you know, we're sick of private companies foisting these unicorn feces on tourists at the startup zoo in the retail markets and we're not gonna allow you to kind of inflict that sort of economic loss on retail investors. I'd also like to think that their immunities are kicking in around what I call soft fascism. And that is leaders in Europe and in The US who have decided to bypass Congress, demonize immigrants, and effectively not condemn violence against their political enemies. And the repudiation of Boris Johnson, where 23 of his own party defected to the other side, I think is a very hopeful sign. And I'd like to think in America, the immunities are kicking in as well. So my loser is the soft fascism that passes for what is the leadership in some, what traditionally have been great democracies. And my loser is soft fascism. I know that makes no sense.
Speaker · 49:51
Help me, bring me back Toronto.
Kara Swisher · 49:54
Shopify. Soft fascism. Soft fascism. Should have
Scott Galloway · 49:59
drank this early.
Kara Swisher · 50:00
Okay, listen. Soft fascism sounds like a meal of some sort.
Scott Galloway · 50:05
Well, such wimps in The US. Go I go on Fox We're such wimps as progressive. We... I go on Fox News because I consider myself part of the resistance. I wanna go behind enemy lines. And because I've called for the breakup of Dick Tech, they introduced me no joke as a socialist.
Kara Swisher · 50:20
Right.
Scott Galloway · 50:21
And I'm like, well you say that like it's a bad thing. Seven of the 10 happiest countries in the world have one thing in common, they're socialists. And by the way, happiness is not only a function of thinking, my kid can get a Gulf stream because he might go to MIT because we're rich and the only people in America who get to innovate are people with rich kids, top 100 universities, more people from the top 1% of income households and the bottom 60%. Who gets into Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple, the kids that go to the top schools. So do the math. We used to be about upward mobility and middle class kids like us instead we're upward mobility about crazy upward mobility about rich people. So the notion that you not only have happiness from what you can get but happiness from fear from what could be taken away from you. Right now in America and you don't suffer from this, oh, your wife has lung cancer, which also means you're going bankrupt, right? So the notion that we have some sort of, we have modern societies that have capitalism where you can be rich, you can have the spoils of being great at what you do, but at the same time you take away these immense disastrous fear and anxiety from people, you know, that's something that we should all aspire to. So we are, I think, learning and this notion that they can call us socialists. Well, you know what, boss? I'm fine. Call me a socialist. I'm gonna start calling the far right what it is that have taken over some of these governments and that is they're fascists. Fascism is refusal to condemn violence. It's a demonization of immigrants and it's extreme nationalism. What better describes the administration overseeing where I live right now or some of the very dangerous things that's going on in Europe? So fine, I'm a socialist, you're a fascist. Let's get to it.
— Predictions segment begins —
Kara Swisher · 51:59
All right, okay, wow. Running for office? That's God Galloway. I'm just a democrat. See how that goes. I'm hoping. I hope for the best. I hope for the best. I plan for the worst. So my fail is Facebook buying a startup, which I've interviewed the CEO of this company, that's researching how to implement noninvasive brain impulses that could do things like text with your thoughts. So Zuckerberg in our brains. I thought Facebook dating was bad enough. Yeah. So I'm finding this to be problematic that the... Facebook keeps marching into areas, that I think, again, they should work on their business, and they have been. They've been trying to fix their problems for sure. But I think... I I know they have to keep growing, but it it seems a little desperate to move from all kind... Like, Libra and... Which is gonna see enormous problems all over the the globe. Yeah. And, of course, it's only their own wallet even though they say it's an independent... Or it's just not. It's so linked to Facebook. They're going into either... Well, Libra, or they're going into dating, and now they're going into mind control. So... Or mind controlling, whatever. I don't think there's a difference. I I I find it fascinating on one thing that they still continue to be this ambition and a little bit desperate because they just can't... You know, their business is doing rather well, like, really make their business as good as it could be. I wish they would do that instead of... You know, it feels like this will make a great press release. This will be... And then it'll go nowhere. It reminds me of when Google started doing, like, 53 moonshots all at once when I wish they would just fix their search and YouTube and things like that. So, think Zuckerberg in our brains is my fail Yes, absolutely. Of the You have to quickly make a prediction.
Scott Galloway · 53:49
Oh, okay. So, I love stocks in the markets. Peloton's going public today. It may already be public. But typically what happens is when a company goes public and does really poorly, fewer companies get out and it casts a pall across the entire market. So the markets are typically not only rearview looking, but they can only see five or 10 feet behind them. So when a company has a tremendously poor IPO, it literally cuts the number of companies that can get out in half. And when a company has a great IPO, a flurry of companies come to the market. And I would describe this right now, we're in a bit of a chill, not only from what's happened with Uber, but the We company going from 50,000,000,000 to zero has put a chill. So Peloton is going out today and it's a really interesting company. It has 45 points of gross margin on its bikes. These are Apple hardware like margins. It has a recurring revenue stream. It does have in fact, have kind of a service, a SaaS element to it. They've managed to unbundle this app, this paid for app from the bike, which is impressive. It's growing like crazy. It's also losing money. It's going out and it's priced at the high end of the range, which shocked me last night. It's going out. I think it's gonna decline in value, but it'll hold. So I think it's gonna be off 10 to 30% in the next six months and hold. We also have a Hollywood agency, a famous Hollywood agency going public in the next couple of weeks, Endeavor, which is this incredible collection of assets, but it's not entirely clear the synergy there and the valuation they're trying to go at. So I think what we're about to see is companies, these great good to great companies get out, but they're going to recognize a 10 to 20% decline in value, but then they will hold. We're not going to see the 50,000,000,000 to zero. So my prediction, and I realize this isn't that enthralling, is it the stocks that come out over the course of the next three to six months-
Kara Swisher · 55:34
People are more careful.
Scott Galloway · 55:35
Yeah, people are gonna be a little bit more measured. It's gonna be a little bit more PG-thirteen, and we'll see a small check back, but they won't collapse the way we saw we collapse.
Kara Swisher · 55:45
And next year will be a lot of IPOs.
Scott Galloway · 55:48
Supposedly Palantir, Airbnb.
Kara Swisher · 55:51
Pinterest perhaps.
Scott Galloway · 55:52
Pinterest's already out and doing quite well actually. Pinterest is probably the best performing of the tech guys.
Kara Swisher · 55:59
But the big one would be Airbnb.
Scott Galloway · 56:00
Airbnb would be Can the huge we end?
Kara Swisher · 56:03
Yes, we can. It just depends.
Scott Galloway · 56:05
Can we end?
Kara Swisher · 56:05
All right, yes.
Scott Galloway · 56:06
All right, so here's the thing, Capitalism with a conscience, freedom from fear being taken away from you. A series of good universities that are affordable for the middle class. The American dream is alive. The problem is it's alive in Canada.
— Predictions segment ends —
Kara Swisher · 56:26
You are You. You are such a suck up to the Canadians.
Speaker · 56:31
My god. Jesus. The big dog is smelling your butt and he likes what he's finding.
Kara Swisher · 56:35
Alright.
Speaker · 56:36
You are our brothers in arms.
Scott Galloway · 56:37
You are an inspiration for us.
Speaker · 56:39
And as my dad reminds me every Sunday night, you have the fastest frontline in hockey. Thank you, Canada.
Kara Swisher · 56:45
Thank you.
Speaker · 56:46
Come to America. We are with you.
Kara Swisher · 56:49
Alright. Thank you very much. This is Pivot live from Toronto. I'm Kara Swisher. Who are you?
Scott Galloway · 56:57
What's that?
Kara Swisher · 56:57
You just have to say I'm Scott Galloway.
Scott Galloway · 56:59
And I'm Scott Galloway.
Kara Swisher · 57:00
Alright. Thank you very much, everyone. That's our show. What do you think, Scott? Should we up and move to Canada and get gay married? What do you think?
Scott Galloway · 57:10
I'm in. I'm in. You know, every marriage is a triumph of hope over experience, and I'm trying to be more hopeful. So let's get on it.
Speaker · 57:17
Between the two of us, we're coming up on nine or ten, aren't we?
Kara Swisher · 57:20
Exactly. Anyway, thanks, Canada. We love you.
Speaker · 57:24
We do.
Kara Swisher · 57:24
Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis and Eric Johnson. Eric Anderson is Pivot's executive producer. Thanks also to Rebecca Castro, Drew Burrows, and Nishat Kerwa. Thanks to the people of Toronto and Elevate for having us. Scott, do you wanna thank the people Toronto?
Scott Galloway · 57:39
Yes. Thank you so much. Go Leafs.
Kara Swisher · 57:41
Make sure... I don't even know what that is. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. If you like this week's episode, leave us a review. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
