Pivot · Apr 9, 2021

Twitch's new guidelines, YouTube's video violations, and a prediction on LG's handset company

Automatic transcript of the end of the episode, from 48:36. Speakers are labeled by software and may contain errors. Highlighted passages are Scott’s predictions.

Scott Galloway · 48:36 Fifteen years ago, I was very scared of being on a plane with marijuana. So I would literally end up on the Las Vegas Strip trying to score marijuana. And I remember thinking, how fucked up is this? You know, unless we, I can get my mom opiates, no problem. But in order to stimulate her appetite, I'm this 40 year old dude on the Las Vegas Strip trying to fucking score illegal drugs. I'm like, this is just so screwed up. You know what, one observation I have right now is that it's clear neither you nor me know what we're talking about, and we should bring Kara Swisher · 49:07 on No. Friend actually have studies sucks. I'm writing about it. I just... I'm really interested in the space. Scott Galloway · 49:11 Do you disagree? Do you know what you're talking about? Kara Swisher · 49:13 I do a little bit. Yeah. I've been really looking at it. I do think that it's, know, because there's so much technology involved in the delivery of this stuff and how to get it. If you You mean an Uber driver? Fascinated I'd if Amazon got into it, right? Like delivery Scott Galloway · 49:24 No, of no, no, no, Well, Kara Swisher · 49:26 that's interesting. But at some point they will. Scott Galloway · 49:29 Well, it's a perfect application for droids because the value to weight ratio is incredible. Kara Swisher · 49:33 Yeah, I don't know. I just feel like it's, they're very small, having a strong investment, you just hold on to it for the long run. I think that's how I would, I'm That not a Scott Galloway · 49:42 defines every investment. Say something that means something, Cara. Kara Swisher · 49:45 Curaleaf is where a lot of people think that that's the one. There's a couple others. And and the focus has has has often been on the growers, but there's other businesses around it. And I think... I don't know. It just reminds me a little bit Bitcoin. It reminds me of, like, a lot of stuff where I don't wanna, like... Just because the stocks haven't kept up doesn't mean they won't. How's that? But like, I just feel like there's a big, this is going to be a very strong industry and it's sweeping if I had to guess, know You the are Scott Galloway · 50:13 know the winners are here. Companies that make drones because of the value to weight. And also, I think big tobacco is gonna come in here. I think they understand regulated industries. They understand how to sell combustibles. I I would be shocked if Philip Morris and Altria do... And BAT in Japan Kara Swisher · 50:28 They have made investments. Yep. They went into dual, things like dual first. Scott Galloway · 50:33 I'll you what, you keep writing about it. I'll keep researching it. Kara Swisher · 50:35 Okay. Good. I think, you know, with... There are 16 states plus DC that have legalized recognition. That is... That was like nothing nothing, honey, a couple years ago. I just feel like it's one of these things. You should keep it, hold it, don't imagine it's gonna be, like, your biggest thing ever, but it's it's... I think it's important. Thank you. Okay, Scott. One more quick break, and we'll be back for predictions. [Ad break] — Predictions segment begins — Kara Swisher · 51:57 Okay, Scott. Prediction time. So we've covered so many areas. Yeah. I predict there's gonna be another photo of you naked. Scott Galloway · 52:04 So it's enough. You projecting? Kara Swisher · 52:05 Get you out of jail. No. I'm not projecting. I'm just worried. Scott Galloway · 52:09 Out of jail. Yeah. So my prediction, I have a tech prediction and a legislation Oh, Kara Swisher · 52:17 a double. Scott Galloway · 52:17 So what a thrill. LG's handset company was closed down. It's gonna be revived by a big tech platform. You can't Kara Swisher · 52:29 Facebook. Scott Galloway · 52:30 Well, that's the gangster call here, is that Facebook buys LG's handset business. Kara Swisher · 52:37 They gotta. Scott Galloway · 52:38 But if it's I'm not them saying Tim Kara Swisher · 52:40 Cook anymore. But go ahead. Scott Galloway · 52:41 You know, the chipsets and sensors that make up a decent phone, that is not easy. And to have figured that out and figured out the supply chain around the glass and the sensors and everything, that is real IP. And they're either gonna sell the IP for a lot of money, but I think someone's gonna come in with monster bid and take the handset division. Because at the end of the day, we're in a gross attention war and every screen that commands one basis point of humanity's attention is worth billions of dollars. And if someone says, all right, we have a credible phone. LG actually has a really nice brand around design and industrial design. They make fantastic appliances. And I think that that IP and that supply chain is too tempting for one of these platforms or companies to not build. It might even be a dumb device. It's just something that streams Netflix really well or something. Yeah. But Netflix, Disney, Facebook, the companies who the only barrier between them and a trillion dollars is the fact that they don't control the end appliance. Kara Swisher · 53:43 So it's gotta be Facebook. Scott Galloway · 53:44 Right? I don't I actually don't think so. You know who'd be an interesting acquirer here? Who? Is Roku. Kara Swisher · 53:49 You love that Roku. Scott Galloway · 53:50 Roku is one of the most Roku is arguably one of the two or three most innovative companies in the last ten years, right up there with Shopify. Kara Swisher · 53:57 Many people think so. Scott Galloway · 53:58 But a content company, if they control the interface I just think my mind spins about potential around getting that sort of IP and supply chain technology to try and Kara Swisher · 54:07 offer with Facebook. They gotta get a phone. All this stuff around Apple and Scott Galloway · 54:11 everything else. I like that one too. The other one The is thing Kara Swisher · 54:14 is, do you want to buy a Facebook phone? They didn't... It didn't work last time with Home. Disasters. Scott Galloway · 54:19 What if they gave it up for free, though? What if it was an incredible camera and gave it up for free? I don't know. We'll see. I'm not saying I'm not saying it's a good idea. I'm saying somebody is going to pick it up. Someone will talk themselves into believing that they should pick it up. Right. Well, Kara Swisher · 54:31 remember that on Microsoft and Nokia. Scott Galloway · 54:34 And then just yeah. As And Google bought Motorola and then shut it down. There's a graveyard of people thinking they can build a handset business, including Amazon. So Kara Swisher · 54:45 the Which does make you appreciate, you know, Apple in terms of how it delivers that product. It's really great. Scott Galloway · 54:51 Most profitable product in history. Margins of Ferrari production volumes with Toyota, I've never seen anything like it. Anyways, my other prediction is that, so just as Janet Yellen recognizes that the arbitrage around taxes leads to abnormal behavior with companies doing these inversions, trying to find Mhmm. It's kind of a lowest, a downward spiral, lowest common denominator problem that is really unhealthy for society. When Trump was elected, he immediately imposed a tax on blue states because he didn't care about them. Yeah. And with salt, basically said that, state and local income taxes are no longer tax deductible. He basically said to California, New York, I'm gonna kick you in the nuts because I don't care. You're never going for me. Hate think Biden is gonna do something similar. And that is when we talk about the international arbitrage around taxation, an even bigger anomaly that is creating more externalities negatively is the domestic arbitrage around state taxes. Yep. And that is Elon Musk is moving to Texas and basically going to take about $15,000,000,000 in tax liability to California and get out of it by relocating to Austin. There is a sucking sound out of the Northeast into Florida of anybody who sits on a large unrealized capital gain. And I don't think that's sustainable. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Biden administration says, okay, I need to get some of these blue states. I like... The blue states I like, specifically California, New York, can't... Aren't gonna be economically sustainable if we keep letting people make money, and that is build $500,000,000 in unrealized gains sitting on the top of a hedge fund, and they piece out to the SURF Club, which is a Four Seasons run property in North Miami. So just as Janet Yellen is going after international tax treaties, you're going to see the Biden administration propose Kara Swisher · 56:41 I like Scott Galloway · 56:42 some sort of interstate tax treaty Kara Swisher · 56:44 because I think it will absolutely be that way because that was just a ridiculous shot, obvious shot to the nuts by Trump. Unfair shot to the nuts. Scott Galloway · 56:51 Yeah. But it's just not, so I I like the fact that states should be... And there's a negative to that. I I think I think New York and California have to have a reckoning with unions, with bureaucrats, with the way the way they spend money on public infrastructure. It's just become wasteful. And there's a certain discipline in states like Texas and Florida that... And they... Those states, those deep blue states could benefit from some of that discipline. Kara Swisher · 57:13 Nice job on the winter storm at Texas. Give me a break. Come on. And the leaking thing in Florida. They just don't do things. They're like the Facebook of states. Scott Galloway · 57:24 Well, okay. But let let me put it another way. Do you think Manhattan do you think Manhattan is offering a good value for an incremental 15% taxes relative to Miami? Kara Swisher · 57:32 I agree. I agree in that regard. But the fact of matter is Scott Galloway · 57:35 What about New Jersey? I think New Jersey is Kara Swisher · 57:38 citizens as well. I Scott Galloway · 57:39 agree. Is worth 12 or 13% additional taxes? Kara Swisher · 57:42 I agree. I... That is a different thing. I just don't think they're the... Like like, some of these states that go on and on are the biggest takers, not Florida Scott Galloway · 57:51 in Kara Swisher · 57:52 this case. Agreed. But like when you see like, I forget what state was Arkansas. Arkansas is a massive taker. And there's states that are Scott Galloway · 57:59 taking Those Arkansans. Kara Swisher · 58:00 You know, all they do is they take and then they pass shitty laws against intolerant, shitty, cruel laws all the time. Scott Galloway · 58:07 Tolerant, cruel, shitty laws. That's not a generalization. That's not a generalization. Kara Swisher · 58:11 They are. Are you kidding? Scott Galloway · 58:12 Don't know. Know nothing about arcanism. Kara Swisher · 58:14 In the arcana, I can't... If any doctor decides not to treat me, doesn't have to because I'm gay. Fuck that guy. Like, okay. Scott Galloway · 58:20 The governor tried to veto it. Right? And it was Kara Swisher · 58:21 never Didn't veto that one. He signed that one. He tried to veto the trans one. And, course, it got pushed. He knew it was gonna get passed anyway. So a big courage for him. He should've... There's lots of things he could've done and didn't do. In any case pivot live from Arkansas. Yes. Well, we should. I'm not going there. I'm not going Scott Galloway · 58:37 to that scene. I will say in my awoke moment of Kara Swisher · 58:40 fifth Spending a week dime in Arkansas. Scott Galloway · 58:41 I did cancel our trip. I was gonna take my youngest to the Atlanta aquarium and I did cancel our trip. Kara Swisher · 58:47 Alright then. Good for you. Scott Galloway · 58:48 That'll show up. Kara Swisher · 58:49 I don't want people... I think there's all these great people of Atlanta. You don't wanna Scott Galloway · 58:52 And I stop wasn't gonna wear my Kara Swisher · 58:54 shirt. A difficult state. That's a difficult state because there's all these people who have to tolerate this bullshit legislature crap that they're doing. In any case Scott Galloway · 59:02 States get the governments they deserve. Kara Swisher · 59:04 They deserve. That is true, unfortunately. But in the case of these, you're right. The taxes are too high. The delivery of services is not as great. There's different priorities. But in general, most of the states you're talking about are givers in in this giver takers. We should do a whole giver taker thing of who does it. And the states that scream the most about don't give, you know, people of color all this welfare are the ones that take most of the welfare. And so in different ways, it's this, but it's the same difference. Scott Galloway · 59:31 I don't think that's a tax thing. I think that's a law. I think those should be laws, But full Kara Swisher · 59:35 you're right. They need to stop the, that the thing that Trump did was entirely unfair, just unfair. If there's a fair way to do this, that's a different story. And I think you're right. They need Scott Galloway · 59:45 to eat more. LG's handset division will be purchased. Kara Swisher · 59:47 Good one. Scott Galloway · 59:48 Facebook is the leader. Think Roku's the number two. And we're gonna see an intrastate tax treaty mandated at a federal level. It'll be bad for Florida and Texas because a huge source of economic growth for them is people coming down with their unrealized gains and buying fat houses and Kara Swisher · 1:00:02 Yep. Scott Galloway · 1:00:02 And putting money into the economy. But it... I don't think it's sustainable. Mhmm. Anyways, those are my two predictions, Karen. — Predictions segment ends — Kara Swisher · 1:00:08 Yeah. We'll see how that goes. It'll be interesting to see how if that sustains itself, those people moving down to to Florida, etcetera. But all I know is I'm coming out of Florida, and you better be That's right. Scott Galloway · 1:00:19 Coming to coming to the dog pound. Kara Swisher · 1:00:21 Yeah. Best Scott Galloway · 1:00:22 of luck. Close. I need your help. Our You know, have this Great Dane puppy, and she's doing great. Our rescue hound, our little Puerto Rican rescue mutt, who we think is a dachshund, is all freaked out and will come out of her crate. I don't know if she's jealous. I don't know if she's freaked out about discipline on the Great Dane, but she's really sad. It's just weird. It's it's like... Don't know if she misses Zoe where she had kind of a mother Kara Swisher · 1:00:47 Oh, that might be. You know, dogs have grief. I've had dogs my whole life. Scott Galloway · 1:00:51 She's... Gangster is grieving. Kara Swisher · 1:00:53 So I I don't know. That's interesting. You gotta you gotta... You should consult some books. There's lots of books. Yeah. Scott Galloway · 1:01:00 They say they say put her on a leash so she feels safe and then show her a ton of affection. Kara Swisher · 1:01:05 Yeah. Safety is very important to dogs. Safety and and there's so much going on with dogs that are that is so interesting and complex. It's really good that you have dogs. Yeah. We can't wait to meet those dogs. Amanda, as it turns out, loves the kind of Great Dane you got with the color, with the blue steel. Scott Galloway · 1:01:20 That's right. Sent her photos. She knew Kara Swisher · 1:01:21 all about it. Scott Galloway · 1:01:22 I sent her It's like, I've Kara Swisher · 1:01:23 never heard of such a thing. Scott Galloway · 1:01:24 I just wanna tell you. I just be prepared. She's like, that's Kara Swisher · 1:01:26 my favorite dog. I'm like, really? Scott Galloway · 1:01:27 This is the most beautiful dog. This is the most beautiful dog you've ever seen. Kara Swisher · 1:01:31 Alright. Scott Galloway · 1:01:31 I I let this thing sit on my chest and I just stare at it. Kara Swisher · 1:01:34 I see that. You sent me a lot of photos. Scott Galloway · 1:01:36 They're really I I am obsessed with this dog. Kara Swisher · 1:01:39 I am excited to meet your dog who doesn't wear clothes, and I'm excited to see you Scott Galloway · 1:01:42 There you go. Who With clothes on? Kara Swisher · 1:01:45 Yes. Exactly. Anyway, that's the show. Not Scott Galloway · 1:01:47 bad for seventy three. Tuesday. Not bad for seventy three. Kara Swisher · 1:01:51 Yeah. Scott Galloway · 1:01:52 Okay. We're gonna have a great time. Kara Swisher · 1:01:53 I don't do it at seventy three. Scott Galloway · 1:01:54 We're gonna have a great time. Kara Swisher · 1:01:55 Go to nymag.com/pivot submit your question for the podcast. The link is also in our show notes. Scott, please read us out. Scott Galloway · 1:02:03 Today's episode was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie Intertaut engineered this episode. Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. Or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week for a breakdown of all things tech and business. Kara, I hope you and your family have a wonderful weekend. Kara Swisher · 1:02:27 Well, thank you, and keep your pants on. 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