Jul 7, 2023 · Episode 418

Meta’s Threads, and A Major First Amendment Ruling

4 predictions · 2–2 · 50% accuracy

Scott's predictions4

Read the transcript →

Meta's Threads app will reach 100 million users within five weeks of its launch (by approximately August 10, 2023).
“I think threads is gonna get to a 100,000,000 users in five weeks. It took Twitter five years.”
Tech · Checkable · by Aug 10, 2023
Came trueResolved Jul 10, 2023
In the early competition between Threads and Twitter/X (framed as 'round one' of the Musk vs. Zuckerberg rivalry), Zuckerberg/Meta will clearly outperform Musk/Twitter via Threads within the first few weeks.
“my prediction is round one of the cage match between Musk and Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg is is kicking the shit out of Musk, specifically via threads.”
Tech · Judgment call · by Aug 10, 2023 (inferred)
Didn’t happenResolved Aug 10, 2023
Within five weeks of launch, Threads will have more total users than Twitter accumulated in its first five years, and Zuckerberg will win 'round one' of the Musk-Zuckerberg rivalry.
“My prediction, again, in five weeks, there's more users on threads than there was in the first five years of Twitter. And round one of this cage match goes to the Zuck.”
Tech · Checkable · by Aug 10, 2023
Didn’t happenResolved Aug 10, 2023
Threads will develop a cultural 'vibe' that is more visual/entertainment-oriented (like Instagram) and less intellectually deep than Twitter, lacking Twitter's depth of discourse.
“This won't have the depth, but it'll be a little bit more bravo Kim Kardashian, which has a big market, but it'll have a different vibe.”
Media · Judgment call · by Jul 7, 2024 (inferred)
Came trueResolved Feb 2024